2015 – Indian Punchline

Israel hits Damascus, Russia looks away – Indian Punchline
By M K Bhadrakuma – December 23, 2015
▻http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/12/23/israel-hits-damascus-russia-looks-away

The assassination of the Lebanese resistance’s war hero and Hezbollah leader Samir Kuntar in the city of Damascus on Sunday in what is believed to be an Israeli air raid took place right under the Russian nose. Yet Moscow didn’t sneeze. Ever read the famous line in Sherlock Holmes’ Silver Blaze hinging on the ‘curious incident of the dog in the night-time’ (which failed to bark)? The Russian ambivalence comes out in the Kremlin spokesman’s non-committal reaction.

Israel no doubt pushed the envelope and seems to have got away with it. On Tuesday, in good measure, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu phoned President Vladimir Putin and reached an agreement “in particular to further coordinate anti-terrorist actions” in Syria, apart from discussing the development of cooperation between the two countries in various spheres”.

To be sure, Moscow is not unaware of the bio profile of the slain Lebanese resistance leader. The RT, in fact, featured a column depicting fairly accurately the cold-blooded logic behind the Israeli decision to eliminate Kuntar (involving an operation on Damascus which is protected by Russia’s famous S-400 missiles and, doubtless would have been approved by ‘Bibi’ himself.) The columnist held out a vague warning to Israel, “Should a similar incident occur again no doubt Russian officials will intervene to stop further Israeli planes flying above an already overcrowded sky”.(RT).

But, will the dog really bark the next time Israel comes to steal another Hezbollah race horse? The jury is out. The point is, Russia is finding itself between the rock and a hard place.

Clearly, it is averse to confronting Israel, which may not be a NATO power but enjoys seamless American protection. Yet, Hezbollah is Russia’s crucial partner in Syria. Analysts generally agree that without the Hezbollah’s help, the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad might have packed up. Moscow ought to be quietly pleased with the stellar role Hezbollah militia is performing on the ground in Syria currently in military operations such as the one around Aleppo.

But then, Russia is also not willing to stick out its neck to protect Hezbollah, although the Israeli ploy to provoke it and distract it from its Syrian campaign against the Islamic State and other extremist groups cannot be in Moscow’s interests either. Truly, the Syrian conflict is riddled with contradictions and what we are witnessing here is one of the major contradictions in the Russian strategy.

Russia would know that Israel has supported al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria fighting the Syrian regime. But, unlike with Turkey, Moscow prefers to deal with Israel wearing velvet gloves. For one thing, there are umbilical cords that tie the Russian and Israeli political elites, and, besides, on a deeper plane, Russia and Israel are on the same page vis-a-vis ‘Islamic terrorism’. (...)

#Samir_Kuntar
#Hezbollah #Russie #Israël #Syrie

Syrian peace process is taking wings – Indian Punchline - By M K Bhadrakumar– November 15, 2015
▻http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/11/15/syrian-peace-process-is-taking-wings

The terrorist strikes in Paris on Friday doubtless administered a shock therapy to the International Syria Support Group [ISSG] meeting in Vienna. The communiqué issued after the meeting on Saturday covered more ground than one would have expected. The document candidly admits that “a unanimous sense of urgency” prevailed during the “constructive dialogue” in Vienna with a view to “accelerate an end” to the Syrian conflict.

The UN secretary-general’s special envoy on Syria Steffan de Mistura, who is an accomplished diplomat, actually used the expression “critical mass” to sum up the outcome of Sunday’s discussions. A plan of action has been drawn up by the ISSG with a definite timeline. Most important, the United Nations Security Council is getting ready to monitor the action plan. Principally, the plan envisages that:

– A peace process involving the Syrian government and opposition representatives will formally commence on 1st January 2016;
– Simultaneously, there will be a nation-wide ceasefire in Syria, which will be monitored by a UN-endorsed ceasefire monitoring mission;
– Meanwhile, confidence-building measures will be taken, especially to ensure “expeditious humanitarian access”;
– On a parallel track, Jordan has been tasked with drawing up a list of irreconcilable extremist groups in addition to the Islamic State and Nusra Front;
– The Syrian-led peace process will establish by end-June 2016 a “credible, inclusive, non-sectarian governance” (read transition) and “set a schedule and process” for drafting a new constitution;
– Free and fair elections as per the new constitution will be held under UN supervision “within 18 months” in which “all Syrians, including the diaspora” will be eligible to participate.

Once again, the fate of President Bashar Al-Assad has been sidestepped. Most western analysts tend to see it as a no-go area that diplomats fear to tread. But is it necessarily so? The point is, an overriding principle has now been accepted, namely, it will be entirely up to the Syrian people to accept or reject the new leadership.
(...)
Also, it has been decided to induct the Organization of Islamic Conference into the ISSG. Taken together, this shift opens the way for Islamic parties (such as Muslim Brotherhood) to participate in the future elections under the new constitution. To be sure, this signifies a major concession to Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. (...)

Poutine, âme d’airain, forêts de pins, guerre et paix | Par M.K. Bhadrakumar – Le 19 octobre 2015 – Source mkbhadarkumar | Traduit par jj, relu par Diane pour le Saker Francophone
▻http://lesakerfrancophone.net/poutine-ame-dairain-forets-de-pins-guerre-et-paix

(...) Ma seconde considération était que la Russie a encaissé le coup du lapin de la nouvelle guerre froide et il est important d’obtenir une sensation de première main sur la façon dont il a réussi à surmonter le coup – et, enfin, à inverser la marée – de la stratégie de confinement tentée par les États-Unis. Bien sûr, il a dû sembler évident pour l’administration de Barack Obama, tout au long de l’affaire, que le projet d’isoler une grande puissance comme la Russie était voué à l’échec. Mais alors, Obama a été béni par le don de l’éloquence et a presque réussi à faire croire à un monde crédule qu’il était sérieux au sujet de l’aventure dans laquelle il se lançait. En fait, dans le processus, quelque chose a changé dans la mentalité russe. L’airain est entré dans son âme, et cela se reflète dans la conduite de la Russie sur la scène mondiale.

Nous avons entendu tellement de lamentations américaines sur une Chine s’affirmant avec autorité. Mais nous n’avions pas encore vu à l’œuvre ce qu’est l’affirmation de soi tant que vous n’avions pas vu le retour de la Russie sur la scène mondiale. Est-ce une bonne chose ? Je pense que oui. Parce que, l’affirmation de soi de la Russie est une garantie de paix. L’équilibre stratégique mondial est extrêmement important pour maintenir la paix et seule la Russie peut fournir les bases de équilibre. Encore une fois, les règles de conduite internationale fondamentales doivent respecter le droit international et la Charte des Nations Unies. Le système international ne peut plus du tout être dominé par une superpuissance. L’insistance de la Russie sur ces règles de base introduit un mécanisme de correction bien nécessaire dans le système international d’aujourd’hui. (...)

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Putin makes his move on Syria
M K Bhadrakumar in Sochi
October 22, 2015 16:59 IST
▻http://www.rediff.com/news/column/putin-makes-his-move-on-syria-/20151022.htm

The sudden, unexpected meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Moscow late Tuesday, October 20, focused on the diplomatic push to kickstart a political process, according to prominent Russian experts here.

As a top Russian diplomat, Ambassador Alexander Aksenyonok (who was involved in the negotiations over the Dayton Accord) told me in Sochi today, October 22, Moscow is keen on a political settlement in Syria “as early as possible — which is also our exit strategy.”

From all accounts, the meeting in Moscow on Tuesday took place in an exceptionally warm, friendly atmosphere. Assad had come at short notice at Putin’s invitation. The two leaders held delegation- level talks as well as a restricted meeting.

The official transcript by the Kremlin quoted Putin as saying to Assad, ’On the question of a settlement in Syria, our position is that positive results in military operations will lay the base for then working out a long-term settlement based on a political process that involves all political forces, ethnic and religious groups.’

’Ultimately,’ Putin added, ’it is the Syrian people alone who must have the deciding voice here. Syria is Russia’s friend and we are ready to make our contribution not only to the military operations and the fight against terrorism, but also to the political process. We would do this, of course, in close contact with the other global powers and with the countries in the region that want to see a peaceful settlement to this conflict.’

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Russia, Iran hold common views on Syria
M K Bhadrakumar – October 23, 2015
►http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar

Sochi – It turned out to be a real treat that the speaker of the Iranian parliament who is on a visit to Russia, Ali Larijani (a key figure in the foreign and security policymaking in Tehran) flew down to Sochi from Moscow and joined President Vladimir Putin on the podium Friday evening to address the Valdai Club members and have a Q&A with us, lasting nearly three hours. Syria, Ukraine, missile defence and Russian-American relations — it could have been predicted that these would be the areas of interest for the audience, which was almost entirely western.

The ‘hot topic’ of course was Syria, given President Bashar al-Assad’s sudden visit to Moscow on Tuesday evening. (See my column in Rediff Putin make his move on Syria.) The salience that came through is that there is no daylight possible between the Russian and Iranian positions on Syria. Whereas, speculations were rife lately in the western (and Israeli) media that Russia and Iran are not on the same page regarding the future of Syria, and that it is a matter of time before the contradictions would surface.

Indeed, Russia and Iran are pursuing different objectives in Syria insofar as although both are waging a war against the Islamic State [IS] and other extremist groups, Tehran also has an agenda toward Syria in terms of that country being a frontline state in the so-called ‘resistance’ against Israel as well as in terms of Tehran’s nexus with the Hezbollah in Lebanon (plus of course the rivalry with Saudi Arabia.) Again, Russia would have geopolitical considerations in Syria, whereas Iran has its commitments as an Islamic republic to fulfill. Putin made the following specific points:

– The Russian military assesses that the air strikes in Syria have already yielded some results, although they are ‘insufficient’ and it will still be desirable if ‘all countries’ could work together in the fight against the terrorist groups.
– Russia hopes that Iran will join the FM level talks between the US, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. There cannot be a solution on Syria without Iran’s participation.
– The Syrian army is making progress and this will continue.
– Moscow is not planning any extension of military operations to Iraq. At any rate, the Iraqi government has not approached Russia so far. For the present, Russia is providing arms and intelligence to Iraq within the framework of the coordination centre that has been set up in Baghdad.
– Putin had asked Assad whether he’d be open to working with moderate rebel groups to fight the extremists; Assad promised to consider.

Larijani said:

– He “totally agreed” with Putin’s analysis on Syria.
– Iran regards that the Russian military intervention in Syria is legitimate.
– Compared to the operations against the IS for over the past year and more by the US-led coalition, the Russian operations have proved effective. In fact, Russia has achieved already “much more” than the US-led coalition ever could during the past 18 months.
– The IS transports its Iraqi oil in trucks moving in long convoys. “Don’t the Americans see these convoys?” The US failed to liberate any IS-held territory in Iraq. It is “playing games” with the IS and is virtually “handing over” Iraqi territories to the IS.
– The intelligence agencies of “some major powers” have secret dealings with the IS, providing them weapons and so on with a view to use them as instruments to advance their interests. (Putin also indirectly, but forcefully, alluded to this collusion between the US and the IS.) The IS gets huge financial support from regional states.
– “Long-term strategic bonds” are needed among “responsible countries” so that trust develops amongst them to tackle terrorism.(...)

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Syrian war ends West’s dominance of Middle East
By M K Bhadrakumar – October 26, 2015
▻http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/10/26/syrian-war-ends-wests-dominance-of-middle-east

Three weeks and 5 days into the Russian military operations in Syria, Moscow has achieved the objective of compelling the major external players involved to rethink their established stance on the crisis. Unsurprisingly, new fault lines have appeared in Middle East politics. Last week witnessed a surge diplomatic activity to cope with the new fault lines.

First, of course, much as the United States dislikes the Russian military role in Syria, Washington and Moscow concluded a memorandum of understanding on Tuesday regarding the ground rules guiding the aircraft of the two countries operating in the Syrian skies so that no untoward incidents occur. In political terms, Washington is coming to terms with a Russian presence in Syria for a foreseeable future. (By the way, an analysis by FT concludes that Russia can easily sustain the financial costs of the military operations in Syria.)

This, in turn, has intensified the US-Russian diplomatic exchanges on Syria. The US Secretary of State John Kerry met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Vienna on Friday at a meeting that also included the foreign ministers of Turkey and Saudi Arabia to discuss the various approaches to bringing together the Syrian parties to peace talks.

Kerry disclosed that the discussions may continue in a wider format (possibly including Iran, Egypt and Jordan as well) next Friday, which suggests that there was sufficient meat in the discussions in Vienna to be followed up without delay. Put differently, some sort of coordinated US-Russian moves on Syria in the coming days or weeks cannot be ruled out. (...)

#Valdai #Larijani

Keep #France at arm’s length from Syrian
▻http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/09/28/keep-france-at-arms-length-from-syrian-war

There is not the slightest sign of unease in Washington or in any western capital that on Sunday France launched its first air strikes in Syria. It is a poignant moment. Do not forget that France, along with Great Britain, was the ‘creator’ of modern Syria.

To use violence against a progeny is not unusual for France – it keeps doing that in Africa – but nonetheless it reeks of insensitivity in this case, given the shame that still surrounds the #Sykes-Picot pact. (The centenary of that shameful chapter in Europe’s colonial history falls in May next year.)

What France has done is reprehensible for yet another reason. It is a permanent veto-holding member of the UN Security Council and it has violated the territorial integrity of a UN member country without even so much as bothering to seek its concurrence. The French interventions abroad are devoid of principles or morality. Libya is the last instance where it marched in, destroyed a country and its established government, left an anarchic trail and then simply washed its hands off the ensuing chaos.

In this case too, France smells that the search for a political solution to the Syrian conflict is probably beginning and it wants to have a ‘say’ in it. It is in France’s DNA, except that what we see here is a slightly cruder version of the devious role France played during the negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal, when it took money from Saudi Arabia and began creating hurdles in the ‘P5+1 and Iran’ negotiations for as long as it could, but when the accord became a fait accompli, France simply crossed over to the Iranians to do ‘business’.

Obama, Putin to meet at a defining moment – Indian Punchline
By M K Bhadrakumar – September 24, 2015
▻http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/09/24/obama-putin-to-meet-at-a-defining-moment

The Russian state agency TASS is not given to speculating on the Kremlin leader’s activities. It is a ground rule set by Joseph Stalin when the agency was created in 1925. Therefore, we must accept as ‘breaking news’ the TASS’ Washington dateline report quoting ‘an informed source’ to the effect that a meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and US resident Barack Obama will take place next week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly session.

Putin is taking to the podium in New York after a gap of a decade when he addresses the GA session on Monday. This is brilliant news. The time is overdue for the American and Russian leaderships to candidly discuss the issues of international security, especially the fight against the Islamic State and the conflict in Syria. There is good reason to believe that the gap between the US and Russian thinking on Syria is dramatically narrowing.

If, in the process, Obama and Putin agree to explore the new frontiers of a Russian-American reset, that will be a bonus, too. For Obama, most certainly, this fortnight will be incomplete without a meeting with Putin. The conversation with Pope Francis on Wednesday would have reminded Obama what a hopelessly disjointed moral landscape surrounds us all – poignantly symbolized by the dead body of 3-year old Aylan washed ashore unnoticed on a desolate Turkish beach – and, indeed, it has ultimately come to be Obama’s own presidential legacy — and he can’t easily escape from it.

Equally, his summit on Friday with the visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping will alert Obama that Washington can optimally cope with China’s rise only through a far-sighted strategy that provides for the underpinning of a durable, predictable partnership with Moscow in the Asia-Pacific. (By the way, isn’t it a delightful coincidence that TASS let the cat out of the bag on the eve of Xi’s touchdown on the White House lawns?)
(...)

EI : la Russie pourrait mener des frappes unilatérales
24.09.2015
▻http://fr.sputniknews.com/international/20150924/1018365500.html

La Russie envisage la possibilité d’effectuer des frappes aériennes unilatérales contre l’EI en Syrie, si les Etats-Unis rejettent une proposition visant à coordonner leurs actions avec Moscou, rapporte l’agence Bloomberg.

Parallèlement, selon Bloomberg, qui cite des sources proches du Kremlin et du ministère russe de la Défense, Moscou préférerait que le gouvernement américain accepte d’allier ses forces avec la Russie, l’Iran et l’armée syrienne afin de lutter contre Daech.

« La Russie estime que le bon sens prévaudra et qu’Obama acceptera la main tendue par Vladimir Poutine. Mais la Russie agira de toute façon, même si cela ne se produit pas », a déclaré à Bloomberg la spécialiste du Moyen-Orient à l’Institut russe d’études stratégiques, Elena Souponina.

Selon une source anonyme à Washington, les Etats-Unis seraient prêts à discuter de la coordination des attaques afin d’éviter des incidents avec des avions russes, mais ils n’ont pas encore reçu une proposition « concrète » de Moscou. En outre, la coalition n’envisage pas la possibilité de coopérer avec les troupes d’Assad, ajoute la source.

Auparavant, le président russe avait déclaré qu’il serait nécessaire d’unir les efforts afin de lutter non seulement contre le terrorisme, mais également contre d’autres problèmes urgents et croissants, à savoir le problème des réfugiés.

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Putin plans air strikes in Syria if no U.S. deal reached - Bloomberg
World | Thu Sep 24, 2015
▻http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/09/24/mideast-crisis-russia-airstrikes-idINKCN0RO01420150924

#Syrie #Russie

(Avec des pincettes) Russia Exposes US Hidden Agenda in Syria
▻http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2015/september/16/russia-exposes-us-hidden-agenda-in-syria

Equally, Lavrov lifted the veil a little bit to let the Americans know that the Russian military intelligence has not only been monitoring the operations of the American military aircraft in Iraq but have scientifically analyzed the US aircraft’s flight plans and so on. In sum, Russians seem to have intelligence dope to substantiate something that the Iranians have been all along maintaining, namely, that the American aircraft are regularly airdropping supplies for the IS.

Honnêtement, je ne sais pas quoi penser de ça. C’est quelque chose que je vois parfois passer sur les sites hum-hum, mais là je note parce que ça passe sur le site du Ron Paul Institute. Certes, Ron Paul c’est parfois hum-hum aussi, mais c’est tout de même très intégré au système…

Quant à l’auteur, Melkulangara Bhadrakumar, encore franchement je ne connais pas. Je vois qu’il écrit énormément, le lecteur pourra se faire une idée ici :
▻http://www.strategic-culture.org/authors/melkulangara-bhadrakumar.html

L’Arabie, entre conquête du monde et chute accélérée
▻http://www.dedefensa.org/article-l_arabie_entre_conqu_te_du_monde_et_chute_acc_l_r_e_17_04_2015.ht

• D’une part l’Arabie, avec la connivence complotiste d’Israël, pour transformer décisivement le Moyen-Orient (le monde). •D’autre part, l’Arabie dans le piège yéménite, face au pire.

La France et la nécessité russe
▻http://www.dedefensa.org/article-la_france_et_la_n_cessit_russe_15_01_2015.html

• Les signes que la France veut un rapprochement avec la Russie se multiplient. • Le 1/7 de Charlie-Hebdo ne ralentit pas le processus, au contraire il l’accélère.