/2015

Syria’s Southern Front shows signs of disintegration - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/10/syria-southern-front-break-up-army.html
A media activist told As-Safir, “After the MOC suspended its work and halted supplies, several leaders and militants withdrew from the battlefield and returned to their civil lives. They felt frustrated, and gave up their weapons.”

He asserted that “most of these leaders are seeking asylum in Europe to escape the deteriorating security situation, and they are afraid of being targets of upcoming assassinations.” He added that “the leader of Usud al-Sunna Battalion, who is called Abu Amr Zaghloul, has reached Germany asking for asylum.”

According to @saleelalmajd, a Twitter account that is widely followed, a number of factions from the Southern Front secretly pledged allegiance to Ahrar al-Sham, but will be announced later on. For their part, the Hawks of Houran Brigade and the Majd al-Islam Brigade announced that they joined Jaish al-Islam headed by Zahran Alloush.

It is no longer a secret that the financial conditions of the factions are dire, as a result of cutting support or pledging allegiance to this leader or that. This is not to mention the foreign influences on these allegiances, especially since some of the factions pledged allegiance after the pilgrimage called upon by Saudi intelligence.

Read more: ▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/10/syria-southern-front-break-up-army.html#ixzz3oThKWy7i

تركيا تنجرف الى الحرب بقوة ضد “الدولة الاسلامية” والمكافأة الامريكية منطقة عازلة مساحتها نصف لبنان.. انها مقامرة محفوفة بالمخاطر.. وقد تعطي نتائج عكسية.. فما هي مبررات الصمت السوري؟ وما هي المغريات التي دفعت تركيا لتغيير موقفها؟ | رأي اليوم
▻http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=291585

Parmi les commentaires de la presse arabe, ceux d’ABA :

تركيا ستسمح بمقتضى هذا الاتفاق للطيران الحربي الامريكي باستخدام قاعدة انجيرليك الجوية القريبة من الحدود الشمالية العراقية والسورية في ضرب قواعد “الدولة الاسلامية”، وربما دمشق لاحقا، ومقابل ذلك ستلبي امريكا طلباتها في اقامة منطقة عازلة وحظر جوي بطول 90 كيلومترا تمتد بين مدينتي مارع وجرابلس السوريتين الشماليتين قرب الحدود التركية وبعمق 50 كيلومترا، اي بمساحة اجمالية مقدارها 4500 كيلومتر مربع، اي نصف مساحة لبنان تقريبا (10453 كليومتر مربع).

Selon cet accord la Turquie autorise les USA à utiliser la base d’Incirlik proche des frontières avaec l’Irak et la Syrie pour frapper les bases de l’EI, et peut-être Damas ensuite. En échange, les USA accepteront les demandes turques d’une zone tampon large de 90 km et d’une profondeur de 50 km entre Marea et Jablos, soit quelque 4500 km2 (la moitié du Liban).

ABA souligne par la suite l’importance d’un accord passé dans un contexte politique difficile pour l’AKP. C’est la fin d’une alliance tacite passée avec l’EI décrite par Erdogan en août 2014 comme des "sunnites humiliés et en colère"... La nouvelle position fera peut-être plaisir aux Kurdes, mais elle va irriter des milieux sunnites extrémistes (on estime qu’il y a 3000 partisans trucs de l’EI dans le pays). Risque de tensions internes, donc, avec des répercussions sur le tourisme turc qui pourrait être la cible d’un attentat.
Le silence des officiels syriens, très surprenant, s’expliquerait par le fait que le régime a compris les nouvelles priorités occidentales. (...) Pourquoi la Turquie devrait-elle rester à l’écart des troubles régionaux ? En suivant cette politique, les dirigeants turcs prennent un risque très important.

#turquie #syrie #zone_tampon

Internal divisions lead to ’hemorrhaging’ of Jabhat al-Nusra leaders
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/07/syria-jabhat-al-nusra-dismissal-leaders-secrets.html

The dismissal of leaders within Jabhat al-Nusra continues. The latest chapter of this saga is the decision to dismiss one of its first seven founders, Abu Mohammed Saleh al-Hamwi. According to leaks supported by earlier data, the decision also included Iraqi national Abu Maria al-Qahtani, one of Jabhat al-Nusra’s most prominent media officials. Moreover, a few months ago, news published by As-Safir about the defection of Jabhat al-Nusra general military commander Abu Samir al-Urdoni and his joining the Islamic State (IS) was confirmed.

(En ce moment, il y a une nouvelle #théorie_du_complot qui explique que si tous ces braves rebelles « modérés » rejoignent ISIS, c’est à cause de l’accord sur le nucléaire iranien. Cet article permet de constater que, hé ben non.)

Idlib waits for zero hour
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/04/syria-idlib-army-regain-jabhat-al-nusra.html

Jabhat al-Nusra continues its siege on the villages of al-Fu’ah and Kafriya, which are under constant bombardment. The residents of these two villages are defending them, amid constant fear of Jabhat al-Nusra invading. This [potential invasion] threatens the lives of 50,000 civilians living in the villages, and foretells a humanitarian catastrophe. Jabhat al-Nusra has already set up checkpoints close to the two villages, while the confrontation lines are close to the villages’ borders with Binnish, the Bruma farms and Maarrat Misrin.

The two villages witnessed some crises due to the siege, despite the Syrian army’s helicopters regularly dropping aid. In this context, the field source said, “The residents only get a little food and medical supplies because the villages are small, and it is hard for them to get out of there and try and get the supplies that were dropped outside [the villages’] borders.” The source explained that a bread crisis has started to emerge.

Joint Arab force can’t agree on ’terrorism’ - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/04/arab-pan-summit-yemen-gulf-terrorism.html#

The devil is in the details, as they say. But what is hidden in the details can be revealed through experience. This joint military force won’t benefit Palestinians, and it won’t constitute an alternative for foreign military bases, either. Maybe if it had been formed in 2011, it would have been the salvation of “legitimate” regimes that were toppled by the revolutions.

Lebanese groups affiliated with IS - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2015/03/lebanon-syria-barren-lands-islamic-state-militants.html