A lire sur al-monitor, une très intéressante tentative de prospective sur l’avenir de la politique turque vis à vis de la Syrie à l’aune des changements des rapports de force politiques suite aux résultats des récentes élections législatives :
The future of Turkey’s Syria policy
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/06/turkey-qatar-syria-saudi-arabia-remain-alone-in-syria.html#
Selon l’analyse de l’auteur la plupart des partis autres que l’AKP sont sceptiques voire très critiques vis à vis de la politique choisie par l’ex-tandem Erdogan-Davutoglu et donc susceptible de profondes révisions. Les doutes se feraient sentir au sein même de l’AKP. Selon l’auteur, quelle que soit la coalition qui formera le nouveau gouvernement turc, Jaysh al-Fatah au Nord (coalition groupant al-Nusra Ahrar al-Cham et les débris de l’ASL) devrait voir l’appui turco-qataro-saoudien s’amoindrir - même si au sud les opérations dirigées depuis une chambre d’opérations à Amman (groupant Qatar, AS, Turquie et pays occidentaux [et aussi très probablement Israël]) et s’appuyant sur le Front Révolutionnaire du Sud ne devraient pas être affectées :
As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud in their Riyadh meeting, the new addresses for weapons assistance were al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch of Jabhat al-Nusra and the Army of Conquest (Jaish al-Fateh), led by Ahrar al-Sham, set up by former al-Qaeda affiliates.
After the shipment of weapons via Turkey, the Army of Conquest captured Idlib, Jisr al-Shughour, Ariha and Mastume. The Syrian army also lost some locations in the south. In the latest development, the 52nd Brigade, which was 100 kilometers (62 miles) south of Damascus, had to abandon its base.
On the northern front, the objective of the Army of Conquest is to capture Aleppo and Latakia after Idlib and then move toward Damascus. Before Turkey’s elections, there were reports that Turkey was about to send troops to Syria along with Saudi Arabia to set up a buffer zone. The second prong of the strategy developed by the Turkey-Saudi-Qatari alliance is to devise a new approach in the south. The south front, commanded from an operations room in Amman, Jordan, in the presence of Western intelligence officials, will hopefully be reorganized under the leadership of Zahran Alloush, commander of the Army of Conquest.
Reports say that Alloush was in Istanbul last month to meet with opposition representatives and then in Amman to meet with Gulf and Western intelligence services.
The scenarios for government change in Turkey will not affect support for the opposition from Amman, but the future of the northern front will depend mostly on Ankara’s new attitude. If the new government in Ankara does not agree to continue with the Turkey-Qatar-Saudi Arabia partnership, then the flow of weapons via Turkey will cease. In such a case, it won’t be easy for the Army of Conquest to hold on to the territory it has captured in Idlib and the vicinity.
The Syrian army is now massing around Idlib and preparing for a major offensive. According to journalist Mehmet Serim, who is reporting from Damascus, Assad’s regime was waiting for the Turkish elections for its major offensive.
