This chart shows link between restaurant spending and new virus cases


  • This chart shows link between #restaurant spending and new virus cases

    Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

    Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

    He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending.

    #dépenses #carte-bancaire #traces #covid-19

    • Intéressant : la méthode (j’imagine qu’ils ont optimisé le R2 (0,38 pour 51 observations) en fonction du retard) estime donc un délai de 3 semaines entre la contamination et la détection.

      Ce serait intéressant de savoir ce qui est précisément utilisé pour les dépenses au restaurant, puisque visiblement l’effet taille (la population) est éliminé. L’étude (que je ne trouve pas) dit également que l’augmentation des dépenses au supermarché est corrélée, avec les mêmes 3 semaines de décalage, à une diminution des contaminations. Dans cette partie du texte, il semble d’ailleurs que c’est la variation par rapport à la dépense de l’année précédente qui est utilisée.

      Is it safe to go to a restaurant ? JP Morgan finds link between restaurant spending, COVID outbreaks | Fortune

      And interestingly, the JPMorgan study also found that increased spending in supermarkets correlated to a slower spread of the virus. Analyst Edgerton wrote that the correlation hints that “high levels of supermarket spending are indicative of more careful social distancing in a state.” The firm pointed out that as of three weeks ago, supermarket spending in states like New York and New Jersey, which are now seeing a decrease in cases, was up 20% or more from a year ago, whereas states now seeing a surge like Texas and Arizona saw supermarket spending up less than 10%.

      Évidemment, ça ne fait pas plaisir aux restaurateurs…

      The National Restaurant Association said in a statement that “It is irresponsible to pin the rise [of COVID-19 cases] on a single industry. Restaurants have historically operated with highly regulated safety protocols based on the FDA’s Food Code and now have taken new steps to meet social distancing guidelines required by state and federal officials. We all have responsibility for wearing masks, washing hands, and social distancing.