Mona Harb on the Aftermath of the Beirut Explosion

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  • Sombre pronostic sur l’évolution à attendre suite à l’explosion de Beyrouth par Mona Harb, une chercheuse spécialiste des politiques urbaines et mouvements de protestation de la jeunesse au Liban
    Jadaliyya - Quick Thoughts : Mona Harb on the Aftermath of the Beirut Explosion
    https://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/41604

    I believe geopolitical and domestic interests are likely to coincide at the expense of opposition groups. Sectarian politics have repeatedly demonstrated their success at self-reproduction through strategies and tactics carefully honed over decades, most often with the support of international powers that seek to advance their own agendas. Though there are serious attempts at organizing effectively and consolidating a common vision and program, protestors are not yet ready to impose their agenda. 

    If early elections were to happen, the current parliament, dominated by the oligarchs, will call for them to be conducted according to a gerrymandered election law similar to that of 2018. This would make it impossible for opposition groups to win a significant number of seats—if any at all. The political class will thus re-elect itself and reclaim its legitimacy. As during the past three decades, international actors will provide aid, yet again, nurturing their corruption. If this pessimistic scenario were to occur, the challenge will be for organized groups not to lose hope, and to continue organizing and consolidating, as the process of political change in Lebanon is a long and arduous journey that is in its early stages.

    #Liban #Beyrouth #reconstruction