Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States | American Journal of Epidemiology | Oxford Academic
We estimated the effect of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction number, Rt, for each state before and after lockdown, and contrasted predicted future fatalities with actual fatalities as a check on the model’s validity. Overall, school closures and lockdown are the only interventions modeled that have a reliable impact on Rt, and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing Rt below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown, without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions, will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.
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