• Revealed: the data that shows how Covid bounced back after UK’s lockdowns | World news | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/mar/19/revealed-the-data-that-shows-how-covid-bounced-back-after-the-uks-lockd
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    12 Mar 2021

    The following chart shows how lockdowns have proved the most effective tool we have in reducing the number of coronavirus cases.

    Every area of the UK is represented as a bubble. As we progress through the pandemic, we can see how every time we lock down, cases begin to fall. And every time the UK opened up again, cases increased.

    Boris Johnson announced that the whole of the UK would enter lockdown on 23 March and warned people to “stay at home”. At this point case rates were increasing in every part of the country.

    Lockdown measures were eased in June as some English children returned to school, despite case rates remaining high in some local areas. With mass testing beginning from late May, more cases started to be officially counted in the government numbers.

    Pubs reopened and weddings were allowed in the final stage of England’s lockdown easing. But local disparities were already forming. Leicester saw the first local lockdown in response to high case rates, with its non-essential shops, salons, gyms and restaurants remaining closed.

    Once again, other areas faced local restrictions as cases increased. July hadn’t even passed before Greater Manchester and parts of West Yorkshire were placed into local lockdown as cases rose in the area.

    A simplified tiered system of restrictions was introduced in England, although originally only Liverpool and its surrounding areas were placed in the strictest tier three. Scotland introduced its own tier system later in October, while Wales and Northern Ireland tightened restrictions nationally.

    In the end local restrictions didn’t do enough. Boris Johnson imposed a new English lockdown as coronavirus demands once again threatened the NHS. Oldham had the country’s highest rate at this point, despite local restrictions having been in place for months.

    But this lockdown only lasted one month, and Johnson eased England’s restrictions at the start of December. Cases started to increase immediately - and this time from a much higher benchmark.

    Matters were made worse by a new variant that rippled across Kent, with Medway recording the country’s highest rate.

    Vast swathes of the south-east, east and all of London were placed under Tier 4, equivalent to a “stay at home” message. Christmas plans were cancelled after the post-lockdown rebound in cases across the country.

    Once again, a national lockdown was imposed in England after a surge in coronavirus cases during the Christmas period. A new variant had also been allowed to spread from the south-east, with huge case rates seen in London. Wales was already under national lockdown, while Scotland and Northern Ireland also announced national lockdowns in January.

    Lockdown is now being eased again in all parts of the UK, with English schools having been re-opened earlier this month. The latest data shows that seven local authorities have case rates that are higher than 135 per 100,000, the level at which Leicester entered local lockdown last year.

    With the vaccine rollout, there are hopes that the current lockdown may be the UK’s last.

    But the lessons of previous waves are clear. Martin McKee, a professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, warned that last year the UK was imposing travel restrictions when rates elsewhere were 20 in every 100,000. Cases are much higher now as restrictions are once again being eased.

    He added: “The vaccine rollout changes things a lot. Essentially, it removes a large number of people from the pool of those at risk, which is good.

    “However, it also means that if the overall number of cases is the same then it is concentrated in a smaller population so, among them, rates are higher. This has implications for severe illness in these groups. Even though the risk is low in these groups, in this case younger people, the higher incidence among them means that the absolute number of those getting severely ill will be higher.”