Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 : a mathematical modelling study
▻https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00143-2/fulltext
We estimate that vaccination alone is insufficient to contain the outbreak. In the absence of NPIs, even with our most optimistic assumption that the vaccine will prevent 85% of infections, we estimate R to be 1·58 (95% credible intervals [CI] 1·36–1·84) once all eligible adults have been offered both doses of the vaccine. Under the default uptake scenario, removal of all NPIs once the vaccination programme is complete is predicted to lead to 21 400 deaths (95% CI 1400–55 100) due to COVID-19 for a vaccine that prevents 85% of infections, although this number increases to 96 700 deaths (51 800–173 200) if the vaccine only prevents 60% of infections. Although vaccination substantially reduces total deaths, it only provides partial protection for the individual; we estimate that, for the default uptake scenario and 60% protection against infection, 48·3% (95% CI 48·1–48·5) and 16·0% (15·7–16·3) of deaths will be in individuals who have received one or two doses of the vaccine, respectively.
For all vaccination scenarios we investigated, our predictions highlight the risks associated with early or rapid relaxation of NPIs. Although novel vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 offer a potential exit strategy for the pandemic, success is highly contingent on the precise vaccine properties and population uptake, both of which need to be carefully monitored.
Cette étude est importante : tu pourras la ressortir, en fin d’année, quand Macron aura décidé triomphalement de lever toutes les restrictions au milieu de l’été, qu’on sera en pleine catastrophe sanitaire, et qu’il prétendra qu’on ne pouvait pas savoir.
