• The Economist - Statistically significant - 05.02.22

    The Economist’s election modelling should cheer Emmanuel Macron

    France’s president has a 79% chance of keeping his job

    [...]

    The pandemic has engendered a huge expansion of state spending at a time when some of his labour-market reforms might have caused more tensions. He has also used the pandemic as an excuse to shelve pension reforms that might have hurt him.

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/02/05/the-economists-election-modelling-should-cheer-emmanuel-macron

    • This election is worth watching closely. Mr Macron is bidding to be the leader of the European Union, which has a vacancy to fill. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s new chancellor, seems reluctant to take up Angela Merkel’s European mantle. Italy has dodged a bullet by avoiding an early vote, but still faces uncertainty. Britain is gone. France matters more than for a long time. It matters greatly who is in charge.