Coronavirus in China: travel restrictions should continue to avoid a resurgence, researchers say | South China Morning Post
▻https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3166171/coronavirus-china-travel-restrictions-should-continue-avoid
Coronavirus in China: travel restrictions should continue to avoid a resurgence, researchers say. A key to controlling the pandemic lies in the development and widespread use of vaccines that are more effective in preventing infection, says research paper China’s continuous pursuit of the zero-Covid policy has come under scrutiny for its high social and economic costs
Chinese researchers said allowing for the movement of people to Covid-zero regions like China would result in 234.2 million infections and 2 million deaths within a year. The key to controlling Covid-19 lies in the development and widespread use of vaccines that are more effective in preventing infection, according to a research paper published in China CDC Weekly, a bulletin of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.
China has strictly enforced its “zero-Covid” policy with the use of tight border controls and lockdowns as it battles the highly infectious Omicron variant while hosting the Winter Olympics in Beijing.Across China, 45 new local Covid-19 cases were reported on Sunday, a rise from the low of nine cases last week during the Lunar New Year holiday.
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Based on previous studies of vaccine effectiveness against infection in Britain and Chile, the researchers found that the baseline efficacy – indicated by efficacy against infection, against symptomatic disease and against death – was 30 per cent, 68.3 per cent and 86 per cent, respectively.Even if the vaccination rate reached 95 per cent, the paper said, allowing for transregional movement would result in 234.2 million infections and 2 million deaths within a year in unaffected regions.
“No matter how effective the vaccine was, it could not eliminate Covid-19 in Covid-zero regions, i.e., regions with strong national commitments to suppressing Covid-19 transmission such as China,” according to the report.
It said nations should continue to develop vaccines and explore new ways to improve vaccine protection against infection to eliminate Covid-19 at the global level.
The paper also said that a higher level of vaccine protection would be necessary if the goal was to restore population mobility to the pre-Covid level in 2019. To reduce the annual incidence of Covid-19 to that of influenza, the vaccine’s effectiveness against infection and symptomatic disease needs to be increased to no less than 40 per cent and 90 per cent, respectively.The paper said non-pharmaceutical interventions such as travel restrictions and lockdown should be continued to avoid a resurgence of Covid-19. “In any case, resuming international population mobility should be treated with caution to avoid domestic outbreaks,” it said.
Liang Wannian, the country’s top government adviser on the coronavirus, said in a recent interview with Hong Kong-based Phoenix Television that it was imperative for China to continue its “dynamic zero-Covid” policy through timely and decisive interventions.However, Liang also said the policy could not be permanent, but its implementation should take into account factors such as changes in the epidemic.
Most countries have decided to “coexist” with the coronavirus to return to normal economic activity and daily living, while China’s continuous pursuit of the zero-Covid policy has come under increasing scrutiny for its high social and economic costs and sustainability.The spread of the Omicron variant will make China’s success in tackling Covid-19 “look more fleeting” and could undermine its efforts to present itself as a global health leader, wrote Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.
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