Will the Kaliningrad Crisis Lead to War?
▻https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/24/kaliningrad-russia-lithuania-crisis-lead-to-war
I have to wonder if the Lithuanians consulted with their allies in Western Europe or with the United States before they made this choice? This seems like a potential case of #alliance_entrapment to me. That’s when one alliance member—typically the smaller, weaker party—succeeds in pulling their alliance partner into a fight that isn’t in that partner’s interest.
There’s been a lively scholarly debate on the question of entrapment and whether it happens frequently, but this seems like an excellent real-world example of a state (Lithuania) that appears to be more risk-tolerant and willing to see conflict than some of its allies (i.e., France, Germany, or the United States).
European officials scramble to douse Kaliningrad tensions
▻https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-official-scramble-de-escalate-tension-kaliningrad-russia-lithuania
Two officials told POLITICO the new guidance makes clear that Lithuanian customs authorities have to check the goods to avoid sanctions evasion, but can allow onward transport of metals if they are destined for Russia’s internal market — meaning Kaliningrad.