• Russia is winning the global grain war – POLITICO
    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-winning-global-grain-war-farmer-ukraine-putin-agriculture

    Farmers across Europe have taken to the streets this year, convinced that cheap Ukrainian produce spilling over the border is to blame for their woes.

    The mass protests have forced EU governments from Warsaw to Paris to make huge concessions to farmers, and have sent Kyiv’s political ties with its Western allies spiraling to their weakest since Russia’s full-scale invasion over two years ago.

    Newly reelected Russian President Vladimir Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee. 
    After all, he is the real mastermind behind the crisis.

    The main reason why EU farmers can’t sell their own goods this year has nothing to do with Ukraine and its huge agricultural sector.
    Instead, it is Russia, whose own record farm output — and world-beating exports — have driven crop prices down to the point where farmers everywhere are hurting.

    “It’s absolutely the case that Russia is using its food exports, particularly wheat exports, as a form of soft power,” said Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and co-author of a recent paper on Russia’s growing dominance of global agricultural markets at Ukraine’s expense.

    Aided by extremely favorable weather, Russia has grown unprecedented amounts of wheat over the past two years and sold it cheaply on the world market.

  • Israel must open border to life-saving aid for Palestinians, WFP chief says – POLITICO
    https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-block-aid-for-palestine-world-food-programme-cindy-mccain

    McCain said enough food to feed the entire #Gaza population for months was “ready to go in.” But access was not being granted.

    #génocide

  • Ukraine is the blind spot in Macron’s military splurge – POLITICO
    https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-emmanuel-macron-military-defense-tank-jet-delay

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants to ramp up military expenditure to €413 billion over the next seven years, but critics say the 30 percent spending boost isn’t taking into account what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been marked by a voracious use of artillery and rockets — a return to a more traditional type of warfare that post-Cold War planners had eschewed in favor of smaller, high-tech and highly trained forces able to deploy far from home.

    The French military budget — which the National Assembly will begin voting on this week — still sticks to that pre-Ukraine war model by cutting back on heavy weapons like tanks and armored personnel carriers while boosting spending on France’s nuclear deterrent and investing in fighting new threats in areas such as space, cyber and the deep seas.

    A final vote is expected before July 14, France’s national day.

    • The budget plans reflect a real strategic vision, not short term, but long term. We are thinking about the Indo-Pacific region, about the deep seas,” said Philippe Maze-Sencier, a geopolitics analyst with Hill+Knowlton Strategies. “Who in Europe thinks about that? We’ve got a rare materials problem and we know that the ocean depths have mining resources.

      In the next seven years, France will spend €5 billion to build a new aircraft carrier to replace the Charles de Gaulle.

      The multi-annual plan also seeks to tackle what Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu called “new areas of conflict and militarization” — namely space, the deep seas and cyber. By 2030, Paris wants to invest €6 billion in space, €4 billion in cyber — representing a 300 percent increase — and €5 billion in intelligence services.

      Ok le budget des armées c’est pour aller extraire des terres rares au fond des mers dans l’indo-pacifique ??

      C’est un truc complètement déprimant : loin de faire scandale, les +100 milliards pour les armées sont au contraire vus comme nettement insuffisants pour provoquer le « saut capacitaire » présenté comme nécessaire avec l’invasion de l’Ukraine. Et le pire c’est que ça se tient vu (i) qu’une leçon de cette guerre semble être que le qualitatif ne doit pas se faire au détriment du quantitatif, (ii) le coût astronomique de ces engins de guerre (c’est un puits sans fond) et (iii) qu’on s’est mis en tête de militariser toute la colonne du fond des mers jusqu’à l’espace et que l’#indo-pacifique is a thing.

      Apparemment 160 chars Leclerc et 137 rafales d’ici 2030 c’est pas assez, on avait prévu plus, c’est la grosse déception. Mais c’est pas assez pour quoi faire ? Ce que je comprends c’est que ce n’est pas assez pour faire la guerre tout seuls à une grande puissance, mais bon, est-ce que c’est grave ?

      Dans le même genre militariste mais en relativement moins énervant :
      Why the French Army Will Continue to Prioritize Quality Over Mass
      https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/why-the-french-army-will-continue-to-prioritize-quality-over-mass

      The French approach to high-intensity warfare since the calamity of 1940 has been to privilege maneuver, speed, and “audacity” at the expense of mass and firepower. This was a reaction to the stolid doctrines that emerged in World War I — often associated with Gen. Philippe Pétain — that contributed to the construction of a force that in 1940 was vast in size and firepower but unwieldy and inflexible when attacked by the rapid-moving and far nimbler Wehrmacht. The newer maneuver-centric approach found reinforcement in the French army’s colonial experience and its expeditionary doctrines, which likewise promoted audacity and improvisation in the absence of numbers and resources. That colonial culture has had a profound influence on the French military up to the present day because of a variety of institutional factors and the reality that, as one Foreign Legion officer has frequently told me, an “army is what it does.” The French army most of the time in recent decades has been busy with small wars in Africa.

    • Ces articles ne sont pas stratégiques, ils sont économiques. Il faut acheter de la quincaillerie, parce que ça fait marcher l’économie. Il faut atteindre le 2%+ du PIB en achats militaires, parce que le CMI occidental en a besoin, le réclame, l’impose. Ce n’est même pas du complotisme, comme on a tous envie de le voir, parce que bon, quoi, le CMI, ça n’existe pas, ce sont des trucs qu’Eisenhower - que plus personne ne connait - imaginait à la fin de sa vie. Et le TCE, en 2005, ne l’évoquait pas du tout, ce niveau de dépenses militaires, ce sont de purs mensonges lancés par les pires eurosceptiques à qui on a filé la plupart des présidences des commissions de l’Assemblée Nationale tellement ils sont peu fréquentables.

      J’ignore ce qu’ils ont prévu précisément de faire pour l’amélioration des capacités de destructions mutuelles (nucléaires, donc), mais oui, c’est de ce côté là qu’il y a un apprentissage sur le fond de la guerre en Ukraine. Mais on n’en parle pas à la télé. Personne ne comprendrait. On te répète quotidiennement que la Russie mène une guerre d’invasion, et que son objectif est d’envahir les Etats-Unis, après l’Europe. Excusez moi, mais les complotistes mous du bulbe, là, ils sont à la télé et ils parlent dans le poste avec la morgue des prédicateurs.

      Les Russes ont démontré qu’ils avaient une force de première frappe, une capacité de décapitation des centres de commandement. Mais on feint de faire comme si quelques chars d’assaut de plus pouvaient changer la donne.

      L’obtention de la capacité de première frappe, c’est ce que les US tentent et prétendent d’obtenir depuis 20 ans, en faisant avancer l’OTAN en Europe de l’Est et en installant le bouclier anti-missile en Pologne et en Roumanie. C’est ce qui a fait dire à la Russie en 2008 qu’ils allaient mettre en œuvre une modernisation de leur arsenal, et qui a aboutit à ce qu’on voit mis en œuvre désormais en Ukraine. La destruction des batteries de Patriot à Kiev par exemple, pour la partie la plus visible (fèqueniouzes !, comme ils diraient dans les services de vérification de l’information, à la façon du premier trump venu).

    • Ca a du le faire chier qu’un chef étranger occupe le devant de la scène.
      « - Mirroir, mirroir, qui est le plus cool des présidents ? »
      " - Il y a un élu, dans une vallée voisine qui attire les projecteurs"
      « - Rhaaaa, vite habillons nous comme lui pour quelques photos »

  • Macron heckled by protesters during speech in the Netherlands – POLITICO
    https://www.politico.eu/article/heckling-protesters-interrupt-macrons-speech-in-the-netherlands-democracy-f


    Jusqu’au fond des chiottes, faut le faire chier.

    A speech by French President Emmanuel Macron was interrupted Tuesday in the Netherlands by protesters attacking him on the state of democracy in France.

    “I think we lost something; where is French democracy?” shouted one male protester at the beginning of a speech by the French president on European sovereignty at the Nexus Institute in The Hague. Another yelled, “Why did you bypass [the] French parliament?” in reference to the political crisis that has emerged over the president’s flagship pensions reform in France.

  • Europe heading for huge excess LNG import capacity, experts warn – POLITICO
    https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-huge-excess-lng-liquefied-natural-gas-import-capacity-expert-warn


    Many European countries fast-tracked plans for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure to bring in supplies by sea
    Filippo Monteferte/AFP via Getty Images

    European countries risk wasting huge sums of money on gas import infrastructure they won’t need after “panicking” in response to Russia’s pipeline shutoffs, expert analysts warned.

    In a rush to find alternative sources of gas after Russia’s Gazprom began limiting Europe’s vital pipeline imports, many European countries — and Germany in particular — fast-tracked plans for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure to bring in supplies by sea from the United States, Qatar and elsewhere.

    But according to a new analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), shared with POLITICO, European countries may have hugely overshot the mark, with current planned import capacity far exceeding likely LNG demand by 2030.

    If current infrastructure plans are carried out, LNG terminal capacity across Europe — including in the U.K., Norway and Turkey, which are closely connected to the EU’s gas market — could exceed 400 billion cubic meters (bcm), the analysis shows.

    But with EU-wide gas demand already falling and renewable sources of electricity projected to make up a larger and larger share of Europe’s energy mix, actual LNG demand in 2030 could be as low as 150 bcm, IEEFA predicts.

    That would leave a gap of 250 bcm of unused LNG import capacity, equivalent to more than half of Europe’s overall gas demand, which stood at 413 bcm in 2021.

    Such a situation could see terminals across Europe sitting idle and becoming “stranded assets,” warned Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, energy analyst at IEEFA and author of the new analysis. 

    “This is the world’s most expensive and unnecessary insurance policy,” she said, adding that Europe should consider dropping some planned projects.

    • l’illustration, très récente, est de Filippo Monteforte et semble représenter le terminal de Piombino en Toscane. Et en cherchant – avec peine, car sur Getty Images, ce photographe semble spécialisé sur le pape et le foot… – je tombe sur cet article du 19/03/2023

      Controversial regasification unit arrives in Italy
      https://www.rfi.fr/en/business-and-tech/20230319-controversial-regasification-unit-arrives-in-italy


      The Golar Tundra will receive liquified natural gas (LNG) from other carriers, which it will turn back into a gaseous state that can be fed into Italy’s national network
      © Filippo MONTEFORTE / AFP

      Piombino (Italy) (AFP) – A new floating storage and regasification unit considered crucial to Italy’s energy security arrived in Tuscany on Sunday, sparking local protests.

      Once installed at the Piombino site, the Golar Tundra will receive liquified natural gas (LNG) from other carriers, which it will turn back into a gaseous state that can be fed into Italy’s national network.

      Stefano Venier, chief executive of Italian gas group Snam, which owns the unit, said earlier this week it would be operational from May.

      The project is key to Italy’s plan to reduce its reliance on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine, which has also seen it sign new deals with partners such as Algeria and Libya.

      Former energy minister Roberto Cingolani said last year it was “essential for national security”.

      The location was chosen so gas can be easily transported to Italy’s heavily industrialised north, although the government says it is temporary, and that after three years it will move.

      But there have been months of local protests against the project, and a small march was staged Sunday ahead of the vessel’s late-night arrival from Singapore.

      Opponents say it will pose health and safety risks for those travelling between the port city of Piombino and the island of Elba, a popular holiday destination.

      Environmental groups have also warned the project will slow down Italy’s transition to renewable energy.

      The Golar Tundra can store 170,000 cubic metres of LNG and has an annual regasification capacity of five billion cubic metres, according to Snam.

      “Five billion cubic metres of gas allows us to reach levels of self-sufficiency that allows families to think about lower bills,” said Tuscany President Eugenio Giani at the port.

      Snam said last summer the unit could contribute around 6.5 percent of Italy’s needs, bringing national regasification capacity to over 25 percent of demand.

      Russia provided around 40 percent of Italy’s gas in 2021 but this fell to 16 percent last year, officials say.