Cost asymmetry in Gulf air defense exposes long-term sustainability risks
▻https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/cost-asymmetry-in-gulf-air-defense-exposes-long-term-sustainability-risks/3847942
Le (fragile) bouclier US coûte cher au Golfe. La Chine aurait-elle une meilleure offre ?
Gulf countries are facing a growing economic burden as they defend against waves of Iranian drones and missiles, highlighting the widening gap between offensive and defensive costs in modern warfare, amid the ongoing US-Israel offensive on Iran, according to data compiled by Anadolu.
The current wave of strikes comes as Gulf states, which are home to US-linked assets, are targeted in Tehran’s retaliatory attacks as the US‑Israel attacks on Iran continue, with US bases hit across Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
The combined estimated defense costs for these countries over the past two days have already exceeded $3 billion and could reach well over $5 billion in higher estimates.
The UAE’s Defense Ministry said that since Saturday, 174 ballistic missiles launched toward the country have been detected, 161 of which were destroyed. A total of 689 Iranian drones were also detected, with 645 intercepted by the UAE.
UAE outspends Iran to intercept strikes
The numbers reveal a stark asymmetry. Iran’s estimated expenditure for the strikes is roughly $194-391 million, including $174-348 million on ballistic missiles, $13.8-34.5 million on 689 Shahed drones, and about $6-9 million on cruise missiles.
The cost of the drones is based on estimates of $20,000-50,000 per unit, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
In contrast, UAE defense costs are significantly higher. Each PAC-3 MSE interceptor used against ballistic missiles costs $3-5 million, according to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance.
For ballistic missiles alone, 152 intercepts multiplied by two shots each totals $966 million-$1.61 billion. Drone defense adds further costs: interceptors averaging $500,000-1.5 million per drone killed 506 drones, costing roughly $322.5-967.5 million.
The total UAE expenditure on air defense has been so far estimated at $1.31-2.61 billion, around three to 13 times the amount Iran spent on the attacks. For drones specifically, every $1 Iran spent prompted an estimated $15-35 in UAE defense spending, underscoring the extreme imbalance.
