Poutine, âme d’airain, forêts de pins, guerre et paix | Par M.K. Bhadrakumar – Le 19 octobre 2015 – Source mkbhadarkumar | Traduit par jj, relu par Diane pour le Saker Francophone
▻http://lesakerfrancophone.net/poutine-ame-dairain-forets-de-pins-guerre-et-paix
(...) Ma seconde considération était que la Russie a encaissé le coup du lapin de la nouvelle guerre froide et il est important d’obtenir une sensation de première main sur la façon dont il a réussi à surmonter le coup – et, enfin, à inverser la marée – de la stratégie de confinement tentée par les États-Unis. Bien sûr, il a dû sembler évident pour l’administration de Barack Obama, tout au long de l’affaire, que le projet d’isoler une grande puissance comme la Russie était voué à l’échec. Mais alors, Obama a été béni par le don de l’éloquence et a presque réussi à faire croire à un monde crédule qu’il était sérieux au sujet de l’aventure dans laquelle il se lançait. En fait, dans le processus, quelque chose a changé dans la mentalité russe. L’airain est entré dans son âme, et cela se reflète dans la conduite de la Russie sur la scène mondiale.
Nous avons entendu tellement de lamentations américaines sur une Chine s’affirmant avec autorité. Mais nous n’avions pas encore vu à l’œuvre ce qu’est l’affirmation de soi tant que vous n’avions pas vu le retour de la Russie sur la scène mondiale. Est-ce une bonne chose ? Je pense que oui. Parce que, l’affirmation de soi de la Russie est une garantie de paix. L’équilibre stratégique mondial est extrêmement important pour maintenir la paix et seule la Russie peut fournir les bases de équilibre. Encore une fois, les règles de conduite internationale fondamentales doivent respecter le droit international et la Charte des Nations Unies. Le système international ne peut plus du tout être dominé par une superpuissance. L’insistance de la Russie sur ces règles de base introduit un mécanisme de correction bien nécessaire dans le système international d’aujourd’hui. (...)
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Putin makes his move on Syria
M K Bhadrakumar in Sochi
October 22, 2015 16:59 IST
▻http://www.rediff.com/news/column/putin-makes-his-move-on-syria-/20151022.htm
The sudden, unexpected meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Moscow late Tuesday, October 20, focused on the diplomatic push to kickstart a political process, according to prominent Russian experts here.
As a top Russian diplomat, Ambassador Alexander Aksenyonok (who was involved in the negotiations over the Dayton Accord) told me in Sochi today, October 22, Moscow is keen on a political settlement in Syria “as early as possible — which is also our exit strategy.”
From all accounts, the meeting in Moscow on Tuesday took place in an exceptionally warm, friendly atmosphere. Assad had come at short notice at Putin’s invitation. The two leaders held delegation- level talks as well as a restricted meeting.
The official transcript by the Kremlin quoted Putin as saying to Assad, ’On the question of a settlement in Syria, our position is that positive results in military operations will lay the base for then working out a long-term settlement based on a political process that involves all political forces, ethnic and religious groups.’
’Ultimately,’ Putin added, ’it is the Syrian people alone who must have the deciding voice here. Syria is Russia’s friend and we are ready to make our contribution not only to the military operations and the fight against terrorism, but also to the political process. We would do this, of course, in close contact with the other global powers and with the countries in the region that want to see a peaceful settlement to this conflict.’
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Russia, Iran hold common views on Syria
M K Bhadrakumar – October 23, 2015
►http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar
Sochi – It turned out to be a real treat that the speaker of the Iranian parliament who is on a visit to Russia, Ali Larijani (a key figure in the foreign and security policymaking in Tehran) flew down to Sochi from Moscow and joined President Vladimir Putin on the podium Friday evening to address the Valdai Club members and have a Q&A with us, lasting nearly three hours. Syria, Ukraine, missile defence and Russian-American relations — it could have been predicted that these would be the areas of interest for the audience, which was almost entirely western.
The ‘hot topic’ of course was Syria, given President Bashar al-Assad’s sudden visit to Moscow on Tuesday evening. (See my column in Rediff Putin make his move on Syria.) The salience that came through is that there is no daylight possible between the Russian and Iranian positions on Syria. Whereas, speculations were rife lately in the western (and Israeli) media that Russia and Iran are not on the same page regarding the future of Syria, and that it is a matter of time before the contradictions would surface.
Indeed, Russia and Iran are pursuing different objectives in Syria insofar as although both are waging a war against the Islamic State [IS] and other extremist groups, Tehran also has an agenda toward Syria in terms of that country being a frontline state in the so-called ‘resistance’ against Israel as well as in terms of Tehran’s nexus with the Hezbollah in Lebanon (plus of course the rivalry with Saudi Arabia.) Again, Russia would have geopolitical considerations in Syria, whereas Iran has its commitments as an Islamic republic to fulfill. Putin made the following specific points:
– The Russian military assesses that the air strikes in Syria have already yielded some results, although they are ‘insufficient’ and it will still be desirable if ‘all countries’ could work together in the fight against the terrorist groups.
– Russia hopes that Iran will join the FM level talks between the US, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. There cannot be a solution on Syria without Iran’s participation.
– The Syrian army is making progress and this will continue.
– Moscow is not planning any extension of military operations to Iraq. At any rate, the Iraqi government has not approached Russia so far. For the present, Russia is providing arms and intelligence to Iraq within the framework of the coordination centre that has been set up in Baghdad.
– Putin had asked Assad whether he’d be open to working with moderate rebel groups to fight the extremists; Assad promised to consider.
Larijani said:
– He “totally agreed” with Putin’s analysis on Syria.
– Iran regards that the Russian military intervention in Syria is legitimate.
– Compared to the operations against the IS for over the past year and more by the US-led coalition, the Russian operations have proved effective. In fact, Russia has achieved already “much more” than the US-led coalition ever could during the past 18 months.
– The IS transports its Iraqi oil in trucks moving in long convoys. “Don’t the Americans see these convoys?” The US failed to liberate any IS-held territory in Iraq. It is “playing games” with the IS and is virtually “handing over” Iraqi territories to the IS.
– The intelligence agencies of “some major powers” have secret dealings with the IS, providing them weapons and so on with a view to use them as instruments to advance their interests. (Putin also indirectly, but forcefully, alluded to this collusion between the US and the IS.) The IS gets huge financial support from regional states.
– “Long-term strategic bonds” are needed among “responsible countries” so that trust develops amongst them to tackle terrorism.(...)
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Syrian war ends West’s dominance of Middle East
By M K Bhadrakumar – October 26, 2015
▻http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/10/26/syrian-war-ends-wests-dominance-of-middle-east
Three weeks and 5 days into the Russian military operations in Syria, Moscow has achieved the objective of compelling the major external players involved to rethink their established stance on the crisis. Unsurprisingly, new fault lines have appeared in Middle East politics. Last week witnessed a surge diplomatic activity to cope with the new fault lines.
First, of course, much as the United States dislikes the Russian military role in Syria, Washington and Moscow concluded a memorandum of understanding on Tuesday regarding the ground rules guiding the aircraft of the two countries operating in the Syrian skies so that no untoward incidents occur. In political terms, Washington is coming to terms with a Russian presence in Syria for a foreseeable future. (By the way, an analysis by FT concludes that Russia can easily sustain the financial costs of the military operations in Syria.)
This, in turn, has intensified the US-Russian diplomatic exchanges on Syria. The US Secretary of State John Kerry met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Vienna on Friday at a meeting that also included the foreign ministers of Turkey and Saudi Arabia to discuss the various approaches to bringing together the Syrian parties to peace talks.
Kerry disclosed that the discussions may continue in a wider format (possibly including Iran, Egypt and Jordan as well) next Friday, which suggests that there was sufficient meat in the discussions in Vienna to be followed up without delay. Put differently, some sort of coordinated US-Russian moves on Syria in the coming days or weeks cannot be ruled out. (...)