Is the 2 °C world a fantasy ? : Nature News & Comment

/is-the-2-c-world-a-fantasy-1.18868

  • Is the 2 °C world a fantasy?
    http://www.nature.com/news/is-the-2-c-world-a-fantasy-1.18868

    Although the caveats and uncertainties are all spelled out in the scientific literature, there is concern that the 2 °C modelling effort has distorted the political debate by obscuring the scale of the challenge. In particular, some researchers have questioned the viability of large-scale bioenergy use with carbon capture and storage (CCS), on which many models now rely as a relatively cheap way to provide substantial negative emissions. The entire exercise has opened up a rift in the scientific community, with some people raising ethical questions about whether scientists are bending to the will of politicians and government funders who want to maintain 2 °C as a viable political target.

    “Nobody dares say it’s impossible,” says Oliver Geden, head of the European Union Research Division at the German Institute for Inter­national and Security Affairs in Berlin. “Everybody is sort of underwriting the 2-degree cheque, but scientists have to think about the credibility of climate science.”

    [...]

    As it stands, the world is on a path to nearly 3 °C of warming by the end of the century, and even that assumes substantial emissions reductions in the future. If nations do not go beyond their Paris pledges, the world could be on track to use up its 2 °C carbon budget as early as 2032. If the models are correct, world leaders may have to either accept extra warming or plan for a Herculean negative-emissions campaign.

    History of the 2 ° C climate target
    http://wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/wisId-WCC62.html

    #climat