TSG IntelBrief : Recalibrating the Terror Threat Radar
December 7, 2015 INTELBRIEFS
▻http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrief-recalibrating-the-terror-threat-radar
Le groupe « Soufan », sur les limites du #contre-terrorisme, apte à prévenir des attentats du type 11 septembre 2001, mais impuissant à empêcher des actions à plus petite échelle (mais à « grand impact ») comme celles de Paris et San Bernardino, qui sont donc amenées à se reproduire.
Last week’s terrorist attack in San Bernardino is the latest to show the limits of the counterterrorism ‘radar’ constructed after 9/11 to detect and disrupt network-based attacks•
While the current terror radar has worked quite well in preventing enormous plots like 9/11, the threat of under-the-radar attacks is growing•
President Obama’s Oval Office address on December 6, which reiterated current counterterrorism tactics, brought up uncomfortable questions regarding the current terror threat radar’s ability to detect potential threats•
It is unlikely that any counterterrorism or law enforcement construct that is both feasible and acceptable in a democracy can disrupt plots of exceedingly small size but large impact..
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Monitoring financial wire transfers and international communications will remain crucial tools of the modern CT approach, but inspired terrorists will avoid CT radar detection by flying low and silent before popping up to kill.Calls for more data collection without sufficient analysis will only produce more accurate investigations, in hindsight of attacks. There is no computer program that can detect and predict violent radicalization at the granular level of two individuals. For relatively small-scale attacks that result in large-scale responses—the ‘New Terror Spectacular‘—the ability to deter and detect is exactly the same as it is for any crime; the odds are in the criminals’ favor if they keep quiet and act quickly.This is the true threat of groups such as the Islamic State, and the ideology of bin Ladinism that drives them.
Driving the Islamic State out of its strongholds in Syria and Iraq is vital to diminishing the group, as it will puncture its appeal as an inevitable and unconquerable foe. Yet its narrative of hatred and violence will continue to resonate with disaffected and maladjusted people across the globe.
Demonstrably toppling the so-called caliphate is a required step in the fight against the Islamic State, but the battles are now taking place in Paris and in San Bernardino. As impossible as it is to eradicate violent crime, it is impossible to eradicate terrorism, especially attacks planned under-the-radar.
There are lessons to be learned from the San Bernardino attack, and one of them might be that there will be more such attacks in the future, despite our best efforts.