2016 | The Mideastwire Blog

Israeli lobbying effort against Lebanese Army will probably bear fruit in 2017
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/12/23/israeli-lobbying-effort-against-lebanese-army-will-probably-b

... a Trump alignment with Russia and authoritarian regional regimes will be systematically separated from, and set against, the Iranian-Hezbollah (and perhaps Saudi-Gulf) axes.

Saudi Arabia views conflict with Iran/Hezbollah as existential-a reality that will lead it into ever growing alliance with #Israel
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/07/25/saudi-arabia-views-conflict-with-iranhezbollah-as-existential

This is but one anchor over decades that challenges the arguments of some in Israel that the country exists in a sea of hostile Arab states. This argument has long since been debunked, which is why when we read in Arab newspapers about the impending “open” alliance between Gulf states and Israel, it is not that surprising… It was always just a matter of time and the right shift in balance of power and instability.

#saoud #arabie_saoudite

Al-Akhbar columnist comes around to the idea that Russian presence in Syria potentially benefits Israel
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/06/07/al-akhbar-columnist-comes-around-to-the-idea-that-russian-pre

Criticism of Russian stances on ceasefire in pro-regime Syrian daily | The Mideastwire Blog
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/05/26/criticism-of-russian-stances-on-ceasefire-in-pro-regime-syrian-daily/?fb_action_ids=831499646956088&fb_action_types=news.publishes

On May 25, the pro-Syrian regime Al-Watan daily newspaper carried the following piece by Fares Riad al-Jiroudi: “The Russian-sponsored truce on the Syrian land in partnership with the USA constituted an occasion for launching a new wave of skepticism regarding the real objectives behind the Russian leadership’s military intervention in Syria and the extent of their matching with the Syrian objectives and the objectives of Syria’s allies at the resistance axis especially since the Russian keenness on preserving the truce coincided with decisive Iranian statements expressing a willingness to support the battle of the Syrian Arab army until the cleansing of Aleppo and its suburbs entirely.

“This wasn’t the first of its kind wave of skepticism in the Russian position from within the media circles affiliated to the Resistance axis. But it seems that this wave will subside just like previous waves as the Russian Defense Ministry declared that the unilateral response to the truce breaches will start on May 25 (today). However, this shows that an important number of the Resistance axis’ journalists have so far failed to assimilate the complications of this war that Syria and its allies are fighting against the takfiri groups and their supporters, mainly Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar…”

Dans la famille des « #experts », David L. Phillips,
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/columbia-universitys-david-phillips-thinks-some-lebanese-fact

Columbia University’s David Phillips thinks some Lebanese factions didn’t used to ask for US intervention

ce qui ne l’empêche pas du tout (au contraire semble-t-il même) d’avoir une impressionnante carte de visite,
▻http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/17/opinions/lebanon-stability-phillips

He served as a senior adviser and foreign affairs expert for the State Department during the administrations of Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama.

BADREDDINE : A VIOLENT END FOR A VIOLENT MAN
▻http://europe.newsweek.com/badreddine-violent-end-hezbollah-lebanon-rafik-hariri-460414

Le genre d’article oú un certain type d’"#expert" s’en donne à cœur joie puisque la rigueur et l’honnêteté y sont formellement interdites.

Fred Hof : Imprecise on STL particulars
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/fred-hof-imprecise-on-stl-particulars

Unfortunately Fred Hof at the Atlantic Council is imprecise in his polemics and therefore serves up a fun column but not much for serious analysis. But one part where you can see how critical nuances escape him is here in one sentence:

“ In the Hariri case, Badreddine and his confederates had left behind electronic fingerprints that made their indictments inevitable after an exhaustive investigation: one that the Hezbollah leadership cadre tried (and failed) to frustrate at every turn. ”

— He briskly avoids any discussion of the problems that are well discussed when it comes to the telecom evidence in the indictment and presents it as a “slam dunk” case.

— In the same sentence he makes a crucial mistake in not acknowleding for the unknowing reader how Hezbollah cooperated with the tribunal over several years. An understanding of this dynamic is crucial to a solid understanding of how, where and why things seemed go so wrong for the STL – and the options that existed early on for accomplishing the “highest standards of international #justice,” as the UN directed.

#parodie

Key problem in Libya: Some Arab allies of US+EU are backing Gen. Haftar, one key roadblock to reconciliation
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/05/04/key-problem-in-libya-some-arab-allies-of-useu-are-backing-gen

This piece, translated by our Mideastwire.com, is important because it suggests an arrested ISIS member was actively ferrying terrorists to the EU for upcoming operations.

It is also critical because it underscores a key contradiction that is helping to hold back reconciliation and stability in Libya – some of the US and EU’s best Arab allies, especially Egypt and Jordan, are actively supporting Gen Haftar in the East and are (apparently) refusing to help bend him to the Libya Political Agreement.

#indigents_arabes #Libye

Ils n’abandonnent jamais,

“Red-Line” (for USA+Israel) accusations made against Hezbollah for Chem weapons via Saudi media+Syrian Op
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/red-line-for-usaisrael-accusations-made-against-hezbollah-for

Whether true or not is, of course, unknowable for us in the public domain. What is important then is that the Saudi owned press is going to push this angle and so is Syrian opposition…. as an effective tool to stoke Israelis, Americans and others (despite past failures in mobilizing around the “red-line”/WMD angle).

********

On May 5, the Saudi-owned, London-based Asharq al-Awsat daily newspaper carried the following report: “Syrian oppositionists told Asharq al-Awsat that chemical weapons are being used against the areas controlled by the opposition. They stressed that the so-called Lebanese Hezbollah is present in the area where these weapons have been used, which re-opens the file of these weapons’ transfer to the Party that constitutes a full partner of the regime in its Syrian war.

“Since the very first moment when the issue of the Syrian regime’s chemical weapons was placed under the international microscope and when the USA announced its willingness to strike the regime to punish it for using these weapons against the civilians, the Syrian oppositionists raised their voices and warned against the transfer of these weapons to the Party.

Jumblat Hints Saniora behind Illegal Internet Network
▻http://m.naharnet.com/stories/en/207918-jumblat-hints-saniora-behind-illegal-internet-network

Il ne faut pas manquer de lire les commentaires, de ceux-là même qui s’indignaient (sic) en 2008...

From the duo behind the May 2008 mini civil war over Hezbollah’s telecom network: Jumblat accuses Siniora of having mafia-like telcom net!
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/04/26/from-the-duo-behind-the-may-2008-mini-civil-war-over-hezbolla

Jumblat of all people, calling out his longtime ally, US-beloved former PM Siniora, on corruption and “mafia” like activities in setting up an illegal internet network. The ultimate irony here: this same duo sparked the May 2008 mini civil war over Hezbollah’s illegal, secondary fiber optic network. Back then both claimed such a scheme violated the very idea of the state.

Now Jumblat is accusing Siniora – for pure profit motive – of a longstanding scheme doing just that! I need to read more on this but, the initial thought is that even these incredible un-maskings are not particularly surprising if you have followed the Ceder Revolution since 2004/2005.

#Liban #mascarade

Opinion piece in Saudi pro-monarchy daily : No fear of 9/11 lawsuit since US/CIA was main trainer of terrorists
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/04/22/opinion-piece-in-saudi-pro-monarchy-daily-no-fear-of-911-laws

From Okaz -

“…If these files are opened, we would learn the reasons behind the CIA chief’s visit to Afghanistan with the famous $1 billion in cash, to create the Afghan Mujahedeen. We would also learn who trained and organized them, created what was later dubbed Al-Qa’idah, excluded and chased them and did not contain them once the mission was over, and how and where they retaliated against those who tricked them. Congress and its claims do not threaten the Kingdom. They rather create an opportunity to expose the involved Americans and their leaders’ lies one after the other, and expose the reality of their advisors’ presence in Afghanistan as trainers in the arts of terrorism.

“Yes, the Kingdom did send youth, but upon Washington’s request and under its direct supervision. What happened later on is a different thing, which ended with a terrorist attack on the Kingdom, pushing it to exert strenuous efforts to keep [terrorism] away from the Kingdom, Europe, and even America itself, as confirmed by the files of its domestic and external intelligence. What is noticeable at this level is that President Obama is the American president who visited the Kingdom the most, but also who harmed it the most. Strategies are not built with deceivers or goners, or even based on public relations. Therefore, let us leave Mr. Obama to drown in his reluctance between isolation and interaction, and wait for the newcomer to the White House, and more importantly the new Congress that will be produced by the elections…”

#Arabie_saoudite #Etats-Unis #linge_sale #apprentis_sorciers #terrorisme #dommages_collatéraux #délétère

As some #Hamas figures split off to join #ISIS in #Sinai, group begins widespread crackdown on Salfists and ISIS in #Gaza
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/03/23/as-some-hamas-figures-split-off-to-join-isis-in-sinai-group-b

On March 22, the Saudi-owned, London-based Asharq al-Awsat daily newspaper carried the following report: “As yet another clue to the Hamas movement’s new plans in the Gaza territory following the meetings between the movement’s leaders and the leaders of the Egyptian intelligence services, the movement has launched a massive campaign against extremist Salafists and arrested a number of those.

“Palestinian sources told Asharq al-Awsat that the internal security services affiliated to Hamas have launched a campaign targeting Salafist officials and activists in Gaza only two days following the conclusion of the meetings between the movement’s delegation and the leaders of the Egyptian intelligence services in Cairo. The internal security services arrested an unidentified number of Salafists including one of the group’s theorists, Wael Hassanein, in addition to others.

“The arrests also included, for the first time ever, members from a group known as Liwa al-Tawheed, which is led by former officials from the Al-Nasser brigades knowing that these brigades are close to Hamas. A Salafist official said that Hamas has launched a new war against them including arrests and summoning dozens of members.

“The investigations with the Salafists focused on their relationship with any organizations in Sinai, their funding sources, weapons and activities. According to the Salafist sources, Hamas confiscated pieces of equipment and weapons from the Salafists. Abou Bassir al-Maqdessi, a Salafist leader, told Asharq al-Awsat: “A large number of individuals who are now held in the Hamas prisons have been arrested in favor of some Egyptian agendas.” He added: “This is not the first time where Hamas implements the agendas of the Egyptian intelligence services. It has already done so in the previous years during the era of Mohammad Morsi. Today, this is being repeated with Es-Sissi. They went all the way to pledging to control the borders in Egypt’s favor. However, this will not harm us at all. We know where they’re going.”

“The relationship between Hamas and the Salafists and has been tense for long years and has seen several phases of high and low tide as well as blood spill over the differences on the “establishment of a princedom” in Gaza and ISIL’s intervention in Al-Yarmouk Camp. Then, the past phase saw a state of cautious calm thanks to the interference of some external parties to reconcile the Salafists with Hamas. However, it seems that the agreement with Egypt has once again disrupted the situation.

“Al-Maqdessi said: “We, the Jihadist Salafist groups, are not affected by those parties who oppose or disappoint us. The day will come when the situation will change and we will be the force that will impose its Islamic choice by implementing the Sharia and fighting the infidels and the apostates…””

#Egypte

A serious question that must be asked: Is Turkey facilitating ISIS members travel to Libya, where they then attack Tunisia?
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/03/10/a-serious-question-that-must-be-asked-is-turkey-facilitating-

Translated today by our Mideastwire.com below. If we believe that extremist Tunisians and others are “returning” or moving to Libya as a staging ground for attacks in this region and in Tunisia specifically, then the likely ways they are coming back from the Syria-Iraq theatre is via Turkey and their air routes or via ships from Turkey, or possibly rebel controlled Syrian shores (where Turkey also a plays a huge role).

This represents a major maritime security issue for the EU, the US and regional states, especially Tunisia. And it should, if there is tacit acceptance or even coordination with Turkey-Isis et al., raise a major problem for NATO and others.

This report on ISIS’s “famed” Al-Batar battalion should raise major red flags for all of those concerned with Tunisia’s security in this next stage – and of course Libya’s security.

Ask yourself: How are all these hundreds, possibly thousands, of fighters (many of them “returning Tunisians” it seems) flowing into Libya? They aren’t flying out of Jordan, crossing Israel and Egypt… or passing through Iraq into Saudi Arabia (well it is unlikely). Iran isn’t helping and Lebanon is very unlikely to be a main route.

On March 9, the independent, leftist As-Safir daily newspaper carried the following report: [...]

#Turquie #Syrie #ISIS

#Hezbollah not on CSIS list of 2000-2014 perpetrators of terror attacks
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/03/05/hezbollah-not-on-csis-list-of-2000-2014-perpetrators-of-terro

Interesting to consider: From Anthony Cordesmen’s recent survey at CSIS. Note that according to this type of accounting of terror attacks from 2000-2014 globally Hezbollah is not on the list of notable perpetrators. An interesting, concrete metric that has played into some of the change in stance over the last few years by the EU and US on both Iran and Hezbollah, whether one agrees with this shift or not.

Pour Nicholas Noe La démission de Rifi est annonciatrice de l’apocalypse pour le Liban.
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/02/21/rifi-resignation-likely-a-major-strategic-error-by-hezbollah-

▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/saudis-next-move-against-lebanon-could-be-in-the-form-of-a-fi

#a_suivre

Readying for the “Dahiye Doctrine”
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/02/16/readying-for-the-dahiye-doctrine

#Ha'aretz : Les civils libanais ne mourront que parce que le Hezbollah se cachera derrière eux ; le Hezbollah sera coupable de crimes innommables en bombardant les installations militaires israéliennes situées à proximité de secteurs civils puisqu’il n’aura pas respecté l’entente tacite entre les deux parties qui veut que ces dernières doivent épargner les civils...

#sans_vergogne #chutzpah

The author of this Haaretz piece (▻http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.703486 ) does not seem to know that the “Dahiye Doctrine” is already official IDF policy for the next war. Civilians in “Hezbollah areas” are to be considered supportive constituents and will be viewed by Israel as “legitimate targets.” Thus, what is promised in the next war is the leveling of significant parts of Lebanon and fairly large civilian deaths and injuries, probably more than those obtained during the 1982 Israeli siege of Beirut and certainly far more than the 1,191 civilians killed by Israel in the 2006 war (Hizbullah killed 43 Israeli civilians and 121 IDF members).

What is not said in these pieces – since the purpose of these pieces on all sides is not analysis but information advantage – is that the IDF likely knows that the vast bulk of Hezbollah’s military capabilities and especially its rocket firing locations are not in cities but are likely in the mountains and in the sparsely populated south (we saw this in the 2006 war when village guards units fought the IDF, but without the mountain positioning – which will be key in the next war – north of the Litani river).

Also left unsaid are the terms of the 1996 “April Understanding” that ended the 1996 war between Hezbollah and Israel. The key provisio there (and which Nasrallah invoked at the start of the 2006 war) is that Israel can have its many military sites which are also in or adjacent to civilian populated areas and installations (like the HQ for the IDF which is next to Hadassah Hospital) and Hezbollah can have rockets in basements, homes or wherever (although the majority of positions – and the bulk of the actual firing sites – for such material is much more likely in the mountains and in the southern plains and “wilderness areas”) BUT neither site can target the other in these areas…. only the firing sites themselves can actually be targeted.

This is a key aspect of the “rules of the game” well known to the actors. When Israel ran out of targets so quickly in the 2006 war, they rapidly dispensed with these rules – as did Hezbollah very early (some argue before the IDF did) by firing into civilian populated areas and also progressively firing from or close to civilian populated areas. The point is that both sides know you can have military bases in civilian areas; both know you should not fire from civilian populated areas; and both sides know that firing at civilian populated areas is also against the “rules of the game.” These are the well known terms, and when either side breaks any of these provisios, people and policymakers know how things spiral downwards.

Cette étonnante mention au détour de l’article de RFI consacré à Madaya :
▻http://www.rfi.fr/moyen-orient/20160112-crise-madaya-onu-appelle-regime-syrien-lever-siege

Privés d’électricité, de chauffage et de nourriture, les 40.000 habitants sont confrontés au siège des forces gouvernementales et aux exactions des rebelles, qui monopolisent toutes les ressources. Dans ce contexte, l’Observatoire syrien des droits de l’homme rapporte qu’une foule en colère a expulsé, lundi 11 janvier, de son lieu de résidence, le chef du Conseil militaire rebelle, qui voulait stocker dans des dépôts sous son contrôle l’aide acheminée. Les habitants exigeaient que les rations alimentaires soient directement distribuées aux familles et ils ont finalement obtenu gain de cause.

Anecdote de l’Observatoire qui n’est pas reprise dans l’article du Monde :
▻http://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2016/01/11/assieges-et-epuises-les-habitants-de-madaya-voient-enfin-arriver-l-aide-huma
Ni dans l’article de Libération (à la place, l’analyse militaire de Thomas Pierret) :
▻http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2016/01/12/a-madaya-ce-que-nous-avons-vu-est-assez-horrible-il-n-y-avait-pas-de-vie_

Hizbullah hits back at starvation reports in Madaya, Syria | The Mideastwire Blog
▻https://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2016/01/08/hizbullah-hits-back-at-starvation-reports-in-madaya-syria/?fb_action_ids=763724877066899&fb_action_types=news.publishes

Interesting response, not least because it does show that publicity, statements and reports over Madaya are clearly having an important impact on Hizbullah’s public stance.

On January 8, the Qatari-owned Al-Quds al-Arabi daily carried the following report by its correspondent in Beirut: “It seems that Hezbollah was bewildered by the intensifying media campaign that shed light on the tragedy endured by the besieged Syrian town of Madaya, and had to clarify the situation, not through an official statement, but through Al-Manar’s newscast yesterday night. Indeed, the channel commented on what it dubbed a programed media campaign against the resistance regarding the town of Madaya in Rif Dimashq, quoting sources as saying: “Some visual and written media outlets with known inclinations have launched a wide-scale slander campaign against the resistance, and accused Hezbollah of starving the civilians in Madaya through its siege. But this is a programmed campaign aiming to ruin the image of the resistance.”

“[It said:] “The armed groups that have taken Madaya hostage, and the foreign sides supporting them, are the only ones responsible for what is happening in the town. We have not seen a similar campaign regarding other Syrian towns that have been besieged by the armed terrorist groups for years, such as Kefraya and Al-Fou’a in Rif Adlib, Nebl and Az-Zahra’ in the countryside of Aleppo, Deir Ezzor and other regions, where babies are dying because of the shortage of milk and basic products, and disease is spreading due to the lack of medical supplies.” Al-Manar thus indicated: “Firstly, dozens of trucks loaded with food and medical supplies that could last many months were introduced to Madaya, Sarghaya and Baqin on October 18, 2015, and an equal quantity was introduced to Kefraya and Fou’a… More is expected to arrive in the coming days, after the injured armed men were evacuated from Az-Zabadani.”