The Arctic Institute - Center for Circumpolar Security Studies
►http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2016/02/CBS-Maritime-Arctic-Shipping-Study.html
Le rapport complet est téléchargeable là :
►https://services-webdav.cbs.dk/doc/CBS.dk/Arctic%20Shipping%20-%20Commercial%20Opportunities%20and%20Chall
je l’ai rapidement parcouru, c’est riche et passionnant, très complet sur la question importante de la route maritime arctique (dont les auteurs pensent -qu’elle n’ouvrira pas de si tôt).
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https://dl.dropbox.com/s/vgr81f7r3x4a3u6/routre%20maritime%20arctique%202.png?dl=0 
https://dl.dropbox.com/s/665j5fc5jo5yp2l/routre%20maritime%20arctique%203.png?dl=0 
https://dl.dropbox.com/s/bs5n2e61szqwj6r/routre%20maritime%20arctique%204.png?dl=0 A new study on the commercial opportunities and challenges of Arctic shipping by researchers at Copenhagen Business School’s Maritime Division finds that the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will remain too short for investments in ice-class vessels to be economically viable in the coming decades. Only after the year 2035 may the Arctic shipping route along Russia’s northern coast became competitive for some ships of comparable size.
The study aimed at determining when (if ever) the investment in an ice-reinforced container ship operating along the NSR would be preferable to the investment in an open water vessel solely navigating the Suez Canal Route.
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Source: CBS Maritime
The authors compared a vessel operating on the NSR with a capacity of 8000 containers (TEU) to three open water container ships operating on the SCR with container capacities of 8000 TEU, 10000 TEU and 15000 TEU, respectively. As part of the study the ice-reinforced vessel was assumed to operate along the NSR during the navigation season and the SCR when ice prevents access to Arctic waters.
CBS’ study employed an innovative calculation tool to determine the year when a given investment for ice-reinforced vessels destined to operate on the NSR would become favorable to an ordinary container ship sailing along the Suez Canal Route. Using the tool researchers calculated the comparative costs per container taking into account more than a dozen variables including vessel specification and size, engine type and capacity, average speed and distance, navigation season, transit fees, and load factors. According to the study’s authors the tool combines an economic framework with applied naval engineering and is the first of its kind specifically designed to compare Arctic shipping to traditional routes.
Furthermore, rather than making deterministic statements about Arctic shipping from a single point in time, the complex methods applied allow for the creation of detailed scenarios to understand how different factors and variables influence the feasibility of using the NSR for transport and when under a given scenario a break-even point may occur. Thus the tool allows for a detailed look at how e.g. higher or lower fuel prices affect the economic calculation of shipping via the Arctic.
#arctique #route_maritime_arctique #transport #transport_maritime
