Fort McMurray residents ponder their future in the fire-damaged city

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  • Fort McMurray residents ponder their future in the fire-damaged city - The Globe and Mail
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    About 10 per cent of buildings, or 2,400 structures, have been destroyed. Many other homes are damaged or need extensive cleaning. Some homeowners are pledging to rebuild, but others – unsettled by the trauma of the evacuation or looking for an exit from an oil economy in the doldrums – want to leave permanently.

    There are predictions that the cost of rental accommodation will jump. Workers are streaming in for the rebuilding of the community, and the owners of oil sands work camps and modular structure services are looking to add capacity as activity ramps up.

    But when it comes to the longer-term outlook for housing and real estate, there is widespread uncertainty about what is going to happen. Many people have returned to take a look at their house this month but haven’t permanently returned to the city. Many major questions remain, including: How much of the fire-ravaged neighbourhoods of Beacon Hill, Waterways and Abasand will be rebuilt? How many empty lots will be left for sale? What will the population of Fort McMurray be a year from now?

    Most predictions about the future are based on other fire-hit communities that are smaller, such as northern Alberta’s Slave Lake (with a population of 7,000). But Fort McMurray is singular for being largely dependent on the fortunes of the oil industry. Oil sands operators are trying to get operations up to normal speed again but it will still take weeks. Because of the oil price drop that began in the summer of 2014, a number of industry jobs have been lost and construction of new oil sands projects slowed dramatically. Construction on new projects is set to wrap up in 2017.

    Even before the wildfire hit, Fort McMurray’s residential vacancy rate had been about 30 per cent. Housing sales prices had dropped by more than 20 per cent between late 2014 and late 2015, and continued to decline early this year.

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