What happened when Australia actually did something to stop gun violence

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  • @simplicissimus
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    @reka
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    What happened when Australia actually did something to stop gun violence - The Washington Post
    ▻https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/22/what-happened-when-australia-actually-did-something-to-stop-gun-viol

    The American mass shooting experience, which tends to follow a predictable cycle of tragedy -> outrage -> finger-pointing -> inaction, stands in sharp contrast to what happened in Australia in 1996. There, a horrified country came together to pass a sweeping gun reform package after a man used an assault rifle to murder 35 people and wound 19 others.

    Australia’s National Firearms Agreement (NFA) most famously included a ban and mandatory buyback of semiautomatic assault rifles like the one used in the mass shooting (also, it’s worth pointing out, like the ones used in seven of the past eight public mass shootings here in the United States). Authorities purchased and destroyed more than 650,000 newly outlawed guns by 2001 and collected nearly 70,000 handguns during a second buyback in 2003.
    […]
    Much of the paper is a confirmation, using more complete data, of what previous research has found. Here are the important things you should know.

    Simplicissimus
    • @simplicissimus
      Simplicissimus

      Résumé de l’article du JAMA (accessible intégralement)

      JAMA Network | JAMA | Association Between Gun Law Reforms and Intentional Firearm Deaths in Australia, 1979-2013
      ▻http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=2530362

      Results From 1979-1996 (before gun law reforms), 13 fatal mass shootings occurred in Australia, whereas from 1997 through May 2016 (after gun law reforms), no fatal mass shootings occurred. There was also significant change in the preexisting downward trends for rates of total firearm deaths prior to vs after gun law reform. From 1979-1996, the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9) per 100 000 population (average decline of 3% per year; annual trend, 0.970; 95% CI, 0.963-0.976), whereas from 1997-2013 (after gun law reforms), the mean rate of total firearm deaths was 1.2 (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) per 100 000 population (average decline of 4.9% per year; annual trend, 0.951; 95% CI, 0.940-0.962), with a ratio of trends in annual death rates of 0.981 (95% CI, 0.968-0.993). There was a statistically significant acceleration in the preexisting downward trend for firearm suicide (ratio of trends, 0.981; 95% CI, 0.970-0.993), but this was not statistically significant for firearm homicide (ratio of trends, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.949-1.001). From 1979-1996, the mean annual rate of total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths was 10.6 (95% CI, 10.0-11.2) per 100 000 population (average increase of 2.1% per year; annual trend, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.016-1.026), whereas from 1997-2013, the mean annual rate was 11.8 (95% CI, 11.3-12.3) per 100 000 (average decline of 1.4% per year; annual trend, 0.986; 95% CI, 0.980-0.993), with a ratio of trends of 0.966 (95% CI, 0.958-0.973). There was no evidence of substitution of other lethal methods for suicides or homicides.

      Conclusions and Relevance Following enactment of gun law reforms in Australia in 1996, there were no mass firearm killings through May 2016. There was a more rapid decline in firearm deaths between 1997 and 2013 compared with before 1997 but also a decline in total nonfirearm suicide and homicide deaths of a greater magnitude. Because of this, it is not possible to determine whether the change in firearm deaths can be attributed to the gun law reforms.

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