#Brexit: Pulling the Signal Out of the Noise
▻http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/87726.html
The complexity of the domestic politics, particularly given the real possibility of a dissolution of the UK, implies that understanding what produced this outcome will have some influence on how Cameron navigates his last ninety days. Lord Ashcroft Pools made an unusually large and detailed post mortem (over 12,000 participants). I encourage you to read it in full. Some of its important findings:
The top reason for a Leave vote was a desire for greater national sovereignity:
Those who decided after Jo Cox was murdered favored Remain, which suggests that event did move votes in that direction but not enough to change the outcome (note that some of the mail-in votes may have been before the shooting):
One of the most best stories so far, both from the perspective of the granularity of the reporting and the caliber of the writing, is the Guardian’s ‘If you’ve got money, you vote in … if you haven’t got money, you vote out’ (hat tip PlutoniumKun). It gives a vivid, painful picture of the England that has been left behind with the march of Thatcherism and neoliberalism. ▻http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/divided-britain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster
This much-watch segment with Mark Blyth (hat tip Gabriel U) also focuses on the class warfare as a driver of the Brexit vote and how that plays into the broader EU political and economic context:
▻https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK0jeJ8wxg&feature=youtu.be
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At a more apocryphal level, stories of clueless Leavers suddenly saying they didn’t mean it and asking to change their votes are doing the rounds.
▻http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/leave-voters-changed-minds-voting-8275841
Unless, improbably, around 700,000 such stories turn up, which would imply they swung the vote, this is another portrayal of the “Leave” voters as idiots.
And the message is beginning to get through to the chattering classes. From Edward Luce in the Financial Times:
Brexit’s lesson for the US — and other democracies — is that fear mongering is not enough. Western elites must build a positive case for reforming a system that is no longer perceived to be fair. The British may well repent at leisure for a vote they took in haste. Others can learn from its blunder.
But even this is weak tea. Luce isn’t advocating a Sanders-style economic regime change. Indeed, his call for action is making a case for reform, implying that the more realistic members of the elites need to take on the reactionary forces. As we’ve said, the Clintons are modern day Bourbons: they’ve learned nothing and forgotten nothing. Luce’s warning to Hillary Clinton, firmly ensconced in her bubble of self-regard, deeply loyal to powerful, monied interests and technocrats, is destined to fall on deaf ears.
