Why Israel Will Not Wage War On Hezbollah This Summer « LobeLog
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Second, the argument that Hezbollah today is too depleted by the Syrian civil war and too weak to effectively confront Israel in Lebanon is purely speculative and not based on a serious understanding of realities on the ground. Estimates based on a tally of funerals and lists disseminated in the media suggest that Hezbollah has lost about 700 fighters in Syria since 2013. Although the actual number of deaths is probably somewhat higher, it is almost certainly more accurate than the 2,000 deaths claimed by the Syrian opposition (which has repeatedly inflated the numbers of enemy casualties as it did just last week when it published a clearly fabricated list of 107 Hezbollah fighters supposedly killed at Qalamoun). Given that Hezbollah has been engaged in the war for fully two years, its losses, while not insignificant, fall far short of the number that would seriously weaken its fighting ability, especially on its home turf.
To put this in some perspective, right after the 2006 war, reliable reports indicated that Hezbollah had quickly restored its ranks to 10,000 fighters. In 2013, an estimated 1,500 to 2,000 fighters won the battle of Qusayr. Hezbollah itself admits that approximately 5,000 of its fighters have been deployed lately in Syria. In theory, therefore, at least 5,000 fighters remain in Lebanon—the same number that effectively defeated Israel nine years ago. In interviews with the party’s cadres and fighters that I conducted several days ago in Lebanon, I was told that Hezbollah, fully aware that Israel may be tempted to strike at a moment when its militants are so deeply engaged in Syria, has quite deliberately maintained its defense infrastructure in Lebanon intact and on continuous alert, with a large part of its elite units based at home.
