company:eurasia

  • The Tiananmen Square massacre, 30 years on - World Socialist Web Site
    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/06/08/tian-j08.html

    By Peter Symonds, 8 June 2019 - Thirty years have passed since heavily-armed Chinese troops, backed by tanks, moved through the suburbs of Beijing on the night of June 3–4, 1989, killing hundreds, probably thousands, of unarmed civilians. The military forces overwhelmed makeshift barricades with brute force as they made their way to Tiananmen Square—the site of weeks of mass protests by students and workers.

    Those barbaric events, which demonstrated the willingness of the Stalinist Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime to do anything to stay in power, have gone down in history as the Tiananmen Square massacre. Yet most of deaths during that murderous assault were of workers who courageously tried to halt the progress of troops to central Beijing. Estimates vary, but up to 7,000 were killed and 20,000 wounded.

    Moreover, in the reign of terror that followed throughout China it was the workers who received the harshest penalties, including lengthy jail terms and death sentences. Around 40,000 people were arrested just in June and July, mostly members of Workers Autonomous Federations that had sprung up in the course of the protests.
    Protesters in Tiananmen Square

    What is commonly depicted as the crushing of student protesters was in fact a wave of repression directed overwhelmingly against a mass movement of the working class. What had begun in April as student protests calling for democratic reforms had swelled into the millions as workers joined the demonstrations by mid-May, making their own class demands.

    The Beijing Workers Autonomous Federation was established on April 20 with a handful of workers and rapidly expanded to become a major organising centre by mid-May. On May 17, up to two million people marched through the centre of Beijing, the majority being workers and their families under the banners of their work units or enterprises. Reflecting the impact of events in Beijing, Workers Autonomous Federations were established in a host of major cities, including Changsha, Shaoyang, Xiangtan, Hengyang and Yueyang.

    While moderate student leaders were intent on pressing the CCP bureaucracy for concessions on democratic rights, workers were animated by concerns over deteriorating living standards, soaring inflation and a wave of sackings and closures. The regime’s embrace of the capitalist market since the 1970s had led to widening social inequality and rampant bureaucratic corruption and profiteering. Workers were bitterly hostile to the accumulation of privileges and wealth by the top CCP leaders, such as Deng Xiaoping, Li Peng, Zhao Ziyang, Jiang Zemin, Chen Yun and their family members, and were contemptuous of their claims to be communist and socialist.

    A statement by workers issued on May 25 expressed the rebellious currents in the working class. “Our nation was created by the struggle and labour of we workers and all other mental and manual labourers. We are the rightful masters of this nation. We must be heard in national affairs. We must not allow this small band of degenerate scum of the nation and the working class to usurp our name and suppress the students, murder democracy and trample human rights.” [1]

    Premier Zhao Ziyang had been sympathetic to the demands of student leaders and had counselled making small concessions to calls for basic democratic rights. However, no compromise was possible with the working class, whose unrest threatened the very existence of the regime. As the protest movement rapidly grew in size and confidence, paramount leader Deng Xiaoping removed his ally Zhao as premier, installed hardline Li Peng in his place and ordered the military to violently suppress the protests in Beijing and nationally.
    The crisis of Stalinism

    The resort to such extreme measures was bound up with the profound crisis of Stalinism, not only in China but internationally. In response to deepening economic and social crises, a turn was underway in China, Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union toward the dismantling of centralised bureaucratic planning mechanisms, encouragement of private enterprise and establishment of market mechanisms.

    After assuming the leadership of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev introduced his keynote policies of perestroika (restructuring) and glasnost (openness and transparency) that laid the framework for greater autonomy for enterprises outside the central planning mechanisms and, under the guise of democratic reform, sought to establish a base of social support for the regime among the petty bourgeoisie.

    Gorbachev’s pro-market restructuring also encouraged the Stalinist regimes in Eastern Europe in their plans for capitalist restoration, making desperate bids to resolve their mounting economic and political crises. These processes dramatically accelerated as Gorbachev signaled that the Soviet Union would not intervene militarily to prop up its Soviet bloc allies, as it had done in Hungary in 1956 to crush the workers’ uprising and in Czechoslovakia in 1968 to end liberal reforms. In December 1987, he announced the withdrawal of 500,000 Soviet troops from Eastern Europe.

    In a very short period of time, during 1989–90, the Stalinist bureaucracies in one Eastern European country after another moved to restore capitalism, dismantling what remained of nationalised property relations and centralised planning.

    In Poland, talks between the government and opposition Solidarity leaders resulted in a deal in April 1989 to hold limited elections. This paved the way for the installation in August of Solidarity leader Tadeusz Mazowiecki as prime minister. He unleashed sweeping pro-market restructuring.

    Similar negotiations in Hungary, where the processes of pro-market restructuring were already advanced, led to a new constitution in August 1989. Multi-party elections in May 1990 resulted in a government that junked what remained of centralised planning and carried out wholesale privatisation.

    Amid a mounting economic and political crisis, Gorbachev visited Berlin in October 1989 to urge the East German government to accelerate pro-market reforms. Erich Honecker resigned as leader two weeks later. On November 9, the government announced the end of all border restrictions and Berlin citizens tore down the hated Berlin Wall. Before the end of the month, West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl unveiled a plan to integrate East Germany with capitalist West Germany—a process that was completed by October 1990.

    The collapse of the Stalinist regimes in Czechoslovakia, Romania and Bulgaria quickly followed. By the end of 1990, governments throughout Eastern Europe were giving full rein to the plunder of state-owned property, an influx of foreign capital and the dismantling of social services, leading to a precipitous deterioration in living standards.

    Gorbachev’s policies in the Soviet Union gave rise to intense pressures within the Stalinist bureaucracy and the emerging layer of entrepreneurs for a far speedier dismantling of all fetters on private ownership and market relations. This found expression in the installation of Boris Yeltsin in July 1991 and the implementation of pro-market “shock therapy.” In December 1991, the Soviet Union was formally dissolved.

    The break-up of the Soviet Union and collapse of the Stalinist states in Eastern Europe led to an orgy of triumphalism in the capitalist media proclaiming the end of socialism. Pundits, politicians and academics, who had foreseen nothing and could explain nothing, exulted over the triumph of the market, even going so far as to pronounce the end of history. In other words, capitalism supposedly represented the highest and final stage of human development. A new period of peace, prosperity and democracy would dawn, they all declared.

    The International Committee of the Fourth International (ICFI), based on the analysis made by Leon Trotsky of Stalinism, had rejected the universal adulation of Gorbachev and warned that his policies were rapidly leading to the dismantling of the gains of the first workers’ state. Its perspectives resolution entitled “The World Capitalist Crisis and the Tasks of the Fourth International,” published in August 1988, made clear that the breakdown of the Soviet Union was not a product of socialism, but rather of Stalinism and its reactionary autarchic conception of “socialism in one country”:

    The very real crisis of the Soviet economy is rooted in its enforced isolation from the resources of the world market and the international division of labour. There are only two ways this crisis can be tackled. The way proposed by Gorbachev involves the dismantling of state industry, the renunciation of the planning principle, and the abandonment of the state monopoly on foreign trade, i.e., the reintegration of the Soviet Union into the structure of world capitalism. The alternative to this reactionary solution requires the smashing of imperialism’s domination over the world economy by linking up the Soviet and international working class in a revolutionary offensive aimed at extending the planned economy into the European, North American and Asian citadels of capitalism. [2]

    In the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the ICFI identified the root cause of the crisis of Stalinism in the processes of the globalisation of production that had been underway since the late 1970s, which had undermined all programs based on national economic regulation. While the crisis of Stalinism was the most immediate and acute expression, these same processes lay behind the international embrace of pro-market restructuring by Social Democratic and Labour parties, and trade unions, and their abandonment of any defence of the social rights of the working class.
    Capitalist restoration in China

    The events in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union had a profound impact in China, where processes of capitalist restoration had been underway since the 1970s. The CCP’s decision in June 1989 to use the military to brutally suppress the working class was in no small measure conditioned by its longstanding fear of a repetition in China of the mass strike movement in Poland in 1980–81 that led to the formation of the Solidarity trade union.

    China specialist Maurice Meisner explained that the involvement of masses of workers in the protests in Tiananmen Square on May 17 “did much to rekindle the ‘Polish fear’ among Party leaders, their decade-old obsession about the rise of a Solidarity-type alliance between workers and intellectuals in opposition to the Communist state. And that fear, in turn, contributed to their fateful decision to impose martial law.” [3]

    While Deng Xiaoping recognised the affinity of Gorbachev’s perestroika with the policies that he had already enacted, he did not embrace the political liberalisation of glasnost, fearing it would undermine the foundations of the CCP regime. When Gorbachev visited Beijing in mid-May 1989 to cement closer Sino-Soviet ties, the Chinese leadership kept him closeted from public view, anxious that his presence would give further impetus to the protests in Tiananmen Square. The rapid collapse of the Stalinist regimes in Eastern Europe only heightened the determination of the CCP bureaucracy to suppress any opposition.

    The roots of the crisis in China lay in the outcome of the 1949 Chinese revolution. The monumental events that brought the Chinese Communist Party to power ended more than a century of imperialist oppression that had mired the country of more than 500 million in squalor and backwardness. It expressed the aspirations of the vast majority of the population for economic security, basic democratic and social rights, and a decent standard of living. Decades of political upheaval and a war against Japanese imperialism from 1937 to 1945 had ravaged the country and left an estimated 14 million Chinese soldiers and civilians dead.

    Like the Soviet bureaucracy, however, the new CCP apparatus was based on the reactionary nationalist program of “socialism in one country,” which was a repudiation of socialist internationalism and Leon Trotsky’s theory of Permanent Revolution which underpinned the October Revolution in Russia in 1917.

    As a result, the course of the revolution and the subsequent evolution of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) proclaimed by Mao Zedong in 1949 was distorted and deformed by Stalinism, which dominated the CCP in the wake of Stalin’s betrayal of the Second Chinese Revolution of 1925–27. Stalin subordinated the very young CCP to the bourgeois nationalist Kuomintang, resulting in crushing blows to the Chinese Communists and working class in April 1927, and again in May 1927. CCP leaders and members who supported Trotsky’s analysis of the tragedy were expelled.

    In the wake of the 1949 Chinese Revolution, the pragmatic, nationalist ideology of Maoism led China rapidly into a blind alley. Mao’s perspective of a “New Democracy” sought to maintain a bloc with the national bourgeoisie, but the CCP government was driven, under conditions of the Korean War and the internal sabotage by bourgeois and petty bourgeois elements, to go further than intended. By 1956, virtually every aspect of the economy was nationalised and subject to bureaucratic planning along the lines of the Soviet Union, but the working class had no say through its own democratic organs.

    The organic hostility of the Maoist regime to the working class was expressed in its repression of Chinese Trotskyists, all of whom were jailed in 1952 amid the rising resistance by workers. As with the Eastern European states, the Fourth International characterised China as a deformed workers’ state, a highly conditional formula that placed the emphasis on the deformed, bureaucratic character of the regime.

    The national autarky of “socialism in one country” generated worsening economic and social turmoil, and crises for which the CCP bureaucracy had no solution, leading to bitter internal factional warfare. Mao’s fanciful scheme for a peasant socialist society, which underpinned his “Great Leap Forward,” ended in economic catastrophe and mass starvation. His factional opponents, led by Liu Shaoqi, followed the Soviet model of bureaucratic planning with its emphasis on heavy industry, but this provided no alternative.

    The economic crisis was greatly worsened by the 1961–63 split with the Soviet Union and the withdrawal of Soviet aid and advisers, as the two Stalinist regimes advanced their conflicting national interests. In a last desperate bid to oust his rivals, Mao unleashed the Cultural Revolution in 1966, which rapidly span out of his control, leading to confused and convulsive social struggles that threatened the very existence of the regime. Mao turned to the military to suppress workers who had taken literally his edict to “Bombard the Headquarters,” resulting in mass strikes in Shanghai and the formation of an independent Shanghai People’s Commune in 1967.

    Incapable of resolving the immense economic and social problems wracking the country, and facing a military confrontation with the Soviet Union, the CCP bureaucracy forged an anti-Soviet alliance with US imperialism that laid the basis for China’s integration into global capitalism. While Deng Xiaoping is generally credited with initiating market reforms, Mao’s rapprochement with US President Richard Nixon in 1972 was the essential political and diplomatic pre-condition for foreign investment and increased trade with the West.

    The process of “opening and reform” went hand-in-hand with the imposition of strict discipline and emphasis on boosting production in workplaces. Maurice Meissner noted: “Factory managers dismissed during the Cultural Revolution were restored to their former posts, accompanied by calls to strengthen managerial authority, labour discipline, and factory rules and regulations—and to struggle against ‘anarchism’ and ‘ultra-leftism.’ There were dramatic increases in foreign trade and in imports of foreign technology. Veteran party leaders attacked during the Cultural Revolution were ‘rehabilitated’ at an increasingly rapid pace; by 1973, it has been noted, ‘the pre-Cultural Revolution cadres were running the government ministries.” [4]

    From 1969 to 1975, the value of foreign trade increased from $US4 billion to $14 billion per annum. From the end of 1972 until mid-1975, China imported whole industrial plants, valued at $2.8 billion, mainly from Japan and western Europe.

    Deng Xiaoping who had been ostracised during the Cultural Revolution as the “No 2 capitalist roader,” was rehabilitated, appointed a vice premier of the state council under Zhou Enlai. Deng led the Chinese delegation to a special session of the UN in 1974 where he declared that the “socialist bloc” no longer existed and China was part of the Third World. In the factional power struggle that followed Mao’s death in 1976, Deng emerged as the dominant figure in the Stalinist bureaucracy. He embraced US imperialism ever more closely, formalising diplomatic relations in 1979, launching a border war against neighbouring Vietnam, and defending US allies such as the Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet.

    From 1978, Deng greatly accelerated the “reform and opening” pro-market reforms. Four Special Economic Zones (SEZs) were established in 1979 in Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou and Xiamen, where foreign entrepreneurs and joint ventures produced goods for export and enjoyed tax breaks and other concessions. A similar system was later implemented in key port cities such as Shanghai. In the countryside, the collectivised communes were dismantled and restrictions removed on the operation of private enterprises. Prices for agricultural produce were lifted. In the cities, moves were made to transform thousands of state-owned enterprises into profit-making corporations. Private enterprises were permitted, the market was increasingly allowed to determine prices for consumer goods, and a “labour market” was initiated, allowing the hiring and firing of workers.

    The pro-market reforms led to the rapid rise of social inequality. Millions of former peasants were left landless and forced to seek employment in the cities. In the SEZs, where the capitalist market was given free rein, corruption and criminal activity was rampant, including smuggling, bribery and the theft of state-owned property. The sons and daughters of the top party leaders took full advantage of their political connections to establish their own business empires. With the lifting of price restrictions, inflation rocketed to 18.5 percent in 1988, to which the regime responded by drastically reducing credit and re-imposing import restrictions. Hundreds of thousands of workers lost their jobs, as private enterprises reduced their workforces or closed down altogether. Unemployment, the loss of job security, as well as skyrocketing prices, combined with disgust at the corruption and enrichment of CCP bureaucrats, fueled the social unrest that erupted in the mass protests by workers the following year.
    Capitalist restoration following Tiananmen Square

    In the aftermath of the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square and the police dragnet throughout the country, the factional battle inside the CCP leadership sharpened in the next three years over Deng’s program of capitalist restoration. In ordering the troops against workers and students, Deng had removed his chief ally in pro-market restructuring, Zhao Ziyang, as premier. Former Shanghai party leader Jiang Zemin was installed as a compromise choice to the top post of CCP secretary general. The initiative shifted to the so-called hardliners—Li Peng and Chen Yun, who, in criticising Zhao, were also criticising Deng’s policies.

    However, in advocating restrictions on market relations, Li and Chen based their policies on the status quo ante and the nationalist perspective of “socialism in country,” which had already proven to be a dead-end. They were looking toward the Soviet Union, even as the deformed workers’ states in Eastern Europe were collapsing and Gorbachev’s policies were undermining centralised planning and nationalised property relations. Their so-called “Soviet faction” represented sections of the Chinese bureaucracy whose power and privileges resided in their control of key sections of state-owned industry and the central apparatus in Beijing.

    At the Fifth Plenum in November 1989, Li delivered the main report, based on the recommendations of a revived State Planning Commission. The adopted plan called for cutting inflation to 10 percent in 1990 and economic growth to 5 percent by maintaining tight controls on credit and balancing the national budget. Rural industries would not be allowed to compete with state-owned enterprises. While keeping the SEZs and “open door” policy in place, the new restrictions hit rural and provincial industries, particularly in the south of the country.

    While Deng no longer held any official party or state position, he still retained considerable political clout, especially in the southern provinces where the new profit-making industries were concentrated. Deng had sided with the hardliners in opposing any political liberalisation and, above all, supported the 1989 military crackdown, but he was adamant that the restrictions on private enterprises and foreign investment had to be completely dismantled.

    The snowballing crisis in the Soviet Union brought matters to a head. An attempted Stalinist putsch in August 1991 to oust Gorbachev and Yeltsin and wind back their program of pro-market restructuring ended in dismal failure. China scholar Michael Marti explained: “This one event changed the thinking about the political equation within the Chinese leadership, including that of Deng Xiaoping. The failure of the Soviet Red Army to support the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in its bid to regain control threw the CCP into a panic. The Chinese leadership feared that a precedent had been established.” [5]

    The factional battle lines were drawn. While the “Soviet faction” began to call into question the entire agenda of pro-market reforms, including the establishment of the SEZs, Deng insisted that the levels of economic growth were too low to maintain employment and social stability. “If the economy cannot be boosted over a long time,” he told a meeting of party elders as far back as late 1989, “it [the government] will lose people’s support at home and will be oppressed and bullied by other nations. The continuation of this situation will lead to the collapse of the Communist Party.” [6]

    Deng was also concerned that the crisis in the Soviet Union, following the collapse of Stalinism in Eastern Europe, would greatly change geo-political relations. Not only had Deng’s strategy sought to balance between the US and the Soviet Union, but his economic policies depended on a large influx of foreign investment, which could potentially shift to exploiting new opportunities opening up in the former Soviet republics.

    Along with provincial leaders in the southern provinces, Deng counted on the support of People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The generals had been shocked by the way in which US imperialism and its allies had deployed hi-tech weaponry in the 1990–91 Gulf War to rapidly destroy the Iraqi military. Their conclusion was that China had to invest heavily in modernising the PLA and only Deng’s policies could transform the economy and produce the growth needed to supply that investment.

    Deng set out on his “Southern tour” in January–February 1992, just 20 days after the formal liquidation of the Soviet Union in December 1991, accompanied by top generals, the state security chief Qiao Shi and party elder Bo Yibo. As he visited the SEZs and southern cities, he declared that there would be no reversal of economic policies in the face of the Soviet collapse. Dismissing concerns about growing social inequality, he is said to have declared: “Let some people get rich first.”

    In a showdown with Chen Yun in Shanghai, Deng reportedly shouted: “Any leader who cannot boost the economy should leave office.” Openly backing capitalist restoration, he declared: “We should absorb more foreign capital and more foreign-advanced experiences and technologies, and set up more foreign-invested enterprises. Do not fear when others say we are practicing capitalism. Capitalism in nothing fearsome.” [7]

    Deng prevailed, opening the door for wholesale capitalist restoration that transformed the whole country into a giant free trade zone for the exploitation of cheap Chinese labour. The crocodile tears shed by Western politicians over the Tiananmen Square massacre were rapidly cast aside as foreign investors recognised that the police-state regime in Beijing was willing to use any method, no matter how brutal, to discipline the working class. In 1993, the CCP proclaimed that its objective was a “socialist market economy,” giving a threadbare “socialist” disguise to its embrace of capitalism.

    In 1994, the CCP formally established a “labour market,” by legitimising the sale and purchase of labour power. State-owned enterprises were corporatised into companies run for profit. The unprofitable ones were restructured or shut down. The better equipped, in sectors not designated as strategic, were sold off or converted into subsidiaries of foreign transnationals. A small number were preserved as state-owned “national flagships.”

    Between 1996 and 2005, the number of employees in state- and collective-owned enterprises halved, from 144 million to 73 million workers. Along with guaranteed life-time employment, the “iron rice bowl” of cradle-to-grave services was also dismantled. Essential services that had previously been provided by state-owned enterprises—childcare, education, health care and pensions—were now left to individual workers.
    Chinese capitalism today

    The restoration of capitalism in China over the past 30 years has only exacerbated the underlying social tensions within Chinese society and compounded the political and geo-political dilemmas confronting the CCP apparatus.

    The extraordinary economic expansion of China to become the world’s second largest economy has rested, in the first place, on the immense gains of the 1949 Revolution that unified China for the first time in decades, created an educated and skilled workforce, and developed basic industries and essential infrastructure. The flood of foreign investment into the country transformed China into the sweatshop of the world and produced a massive 11-fold increase in the economy between 1992 and 2010. This rapid growth, however, did not reflect an inherent strength of the Chinese economy, but rather its role in the world economy, dependent on foreign investment and technology.

    The imperialist powers, above all the United States, were more than willing to exploit cheap Chinese labour as long as China’s economic expansion did not challenge their own established geo-political interests. However, the vast quantity of raw materials and energy that Chinese industries require from around the world have increasingly brought it into conflict with the US and other major powers, in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and internationally. Moreover, as China has sought to create its own hi-tech “national champions” such as Huawei and ZTE, the US, under the Trump administration, has declared economic war on Beijing, not just in matters of trade. It has openly opposed Chinese plans to develop and expand hi-tech industries and to more closely link Eurasia to China through massive infrastructure projects under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    The delusion promoted by CCP leaders that China could, through a “peaceful rise,” become a world power on a parity with the US has been shattered. China’s expansion has brought it into conflict with the global imperialist order dominated by the United States. Under Obama and now Trump, the US has begun using all means at its disposal to ensure its continued global hegemony. Trump’s economic war goes hand-in-hand with a military build-up in the Indo-Pacific, escalating naval provocations in the South China Sea, under the guise of “freedom of navigation operations, and more open preparations for a war between the two nuclear-armed powers.

    The CCP leadership has no answer to the mounting danger of war, other than desperately seeking an accommodation with imperialism, while engaging in a frenetic arms race that can only end in catastrophe for the working class in China and internationally. Capitalist restoration, far from strengthening China’s capacity to counter the US, has greatly weakened it. The regime is organically incapable of making any appeal to the international working class, as that would inevitably lead to social struggles by the working class at home.

    Having abandoned even its previous nominal commitment to socialism and internationalism, the CCP has increasing relied on whipping up Chinese nationalism to try to create a social base in layers of the middle class. There is nothing progressive about Chinese chauvinism and patriotism, which divides Chinese workers from their class brothers and sisters internationally, and within China from non-Han Chinese minorities. Its repressive measures against Uighurs, Tibetans and other ethnic groups have provided an opening that the US is seeking to exploit. Under the bogus banner of “human rights,” Washington is promoting separatist groups as part of its ambition to fracture and subordinate China to its interests.

    Thirty years after the Tiananmen Square massacre, the CCP leadership is terrified of a renewal of working-class opposition, the first stirrings of which have been seen in the more numerous reports of workers’ strikes and protests, and, significantly over the past year, in a turn by a layer of university students to assist workers in their struggles. Since 1989, the working class in China has vastly expanded to an estimated 400 million and as a proportion of the population. One indicator is the growth of the country’s urban population from just 26.4 percent of the total in 1990, to 58.5 percent in 2017.

    The CCP leadership boasts of having lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, using the UN’s very austere measures of poverty. Such benchmarks ignore the many factors that are fueling discontent among workers, including the common practice of late or unpaid wages, unhealthy and dangerous factory conditions, harsh corporate disciplinary practices, and the lack of basic social rights for tens of millions of internal migrants in the cities. All of these oppressive conditions are monitored and policed by the All-China Federation of Trade Unions, which functions as an arm of the CCP bureaucracy in workplaces.

    Capitalist restoration has produced a dramatic rise in social inequality: from one of the most equal societies in the world, China has become one of the most unequal countries. It is home to more dollar billionaires than any other country except the United States. While Chinese workers struggle to survive on the minimum wage of $370 a month, the wealthiest individual, Tencent chairman Pony Ma, has a personal fortune of almost $40 billion. These super-rich oligarchs, who in many cases have built their fortunes through naked corruption and the looting of state-owned property, are represented in the Chinese Communist Party and sit on powerful advisory bodies.

    The gulf between the super-rich and the vast majority of the workers and the poor is generating huge social tensions that, sooner rather than later, will explode on a scale that will eclipse the rebellion by workers and students 30 years ago. The lesson drawn by the Stalinist leadership from the 1989 events was that it had to suppress, through all available means, any expression of opposition that could become the focus of a broader movement against the regime. Incapable of meeting the pressing social needs of the majority of the population, the CCP has vastly expanded its police-state apparatus, now spending more each year on its internal security forces than it does on external defence.

    The working class must also draw the necessary political lessons from the defeat of that movement in 1989, which was rapidly assuming revolutionary dimensions. What was lacking was not determination, audacity and courage, nor numbers, which were rapidly swelling across China, but the essential problem facing the international working class in the 20th century—the absence of revolutionary leadership.

    James Cogan summed up the issue in his analysis “Ten years since the Tiananmen Square massacre,” stating:

    Inexperienced politically and lacking a political perspective outside of opposition to the existing regime, the workers’ leaders advanced no alternative to, and deferred to, the student bodies. The workers of China knew in their life experience what they were against—Stalinism and capitalism—but they were not able to articulate any perspective for an alternative social order.

    Decades of domination by Stalinism and the active suppression of genuine Marxism in China meant there was no revolutionary socialist, that is, Trotskyist, tendency in the working class. No organisation within the country could spontaneously advance the program that was implicit in the actions and sentiments of the Chinese working class—a political revolution to overthrow the Stalinist regime and introduce major reforms into the economy for the benefit of the working class. [8]

    The essential political task of building a Trotskyist leadership in the Chinese working class as a section of the International Committee of the Fourth International remains. None of the oppositional tendencies that emerged out of the 1989 protests offer a viable political perspective for the working class. Advocates of independent trade unions such as Han Dongfang, who was prominent in the Beijing Workers Autonomous Federation in 1989, have underscored the political bankruptcy of syndicalism by lurching to the right and into the arms of US trade union apparatus, in other words of US imperialism.

    A layer of youth, intellectuals and workers have turned to Maoism, and its banal “revolutionary” slogans, for answers. Capitalist restoration in China, however, was not a break from Maoism. It flowed organically out of the dead-end of “socialism in one country.” Maoism could aptly be termed Stalinism with Chinese characteristics, with its hostility to the working class, its emphasis on subjective will, and above all its putrid nationalism. It is diametrically opposed to genuine Marxism, that is the perspective of socialist internationalism, which alone was upheld by the Trotskyist movement, including the Chinese Trotskyists.

    The establishment of a genuinely revolutionary party in China, as part of the ICFI, requires the assimilation of the essential strategic experiences of the international working class, of which the Chinese revolutions of the 20th century are a critical component. The CCP leaders are petrified that workers and youth will begin to work over the lessons of history. They attempt to censor and black out any knowledge and discussion of the events of 1989, and continue to perpetrate the lies of Stalinism about the course of the 20th century.

    The crucial political lessons of the protracted struggle of Trotskyism against Stalinism are embedded in the program, perspective and documents of the International Committee of the Fourth International. Workers and youth should make a serious study of the political issues involved, beginning with the documents of the ICFI on the Tiananmen Square massacre, republished this week on the World Socialist Web Site. We urge you to contact the International Committee of the Fourth International, which is the first step toward forging a Trotskyist leadership in the Chinese working class.

    Footnotes:

    [1] Cited in “Workers in the Tiananmen protests: The politics of the Beijing Workers Autonomous Federation,” by Andrew G. Walder and Gong Xiaoxia, first published in the Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs, No 29, January 1993.

    [2] The World Capitalist Crisis and the Tasks of the Fourth International: Perspectives Resolution of the International Committee of the Fourth International, August 1988, Labor Publications, pp.30–31.

    [3] Maurice Meisner, Mao’s China and After: A History of the People’s Republic, The Free Press, Third edition, 1999, p.508.

    [4] ibid, p.389.

    [5] Michael Marti, China and the Legacy of Deng Xiaoping: From Communist Revolution to Capitalist Evolution, Brassey’s Inc, 2002, pp.47–48.

    [6] Cited in John Chan, “Twenty years since Deng Xiaoping’s ‘Southern tour’—Part 1”, 26 November 2012.

    [7] Cited in John Chan, “Twenty years since Deng Xiaoping’s ‘Southern tour’—Part 2”, 27 November 2012.

    [8] James Cogan, “Ten years since the Tiananmen Square massacre: Political lessons for the working class,” 4 June 1999.

    #Chine #4689

  • « Choc des civilisations » ou crise de civilisation ?
    Par Pepe Escobar – Le 20 mai 2019 – Source The Saker - Traduit par jj, relu par Cat pour le Saker Francophone
    https://lesakerfrancophone.fr/choc-des-civilisations-ou-crise-de-civilisation

    (...) Quo vadis, humanité ?

    Il n’est pas difficile de détecter le sourire subtil sur le visage des stratèges chinois lorsqu’ils contemplent « le vaste panorama » du point de vue de leurs 5 000 ans de civilisation. L’Occident chrétien, en tant que paradigme unique pour délivrer l’humanité du mal – en fait, l’instauration de la Pax Americana – est considéré au mieux comme une fiction amusante.

    Cette fiction a maintenant l’air carrément dangereuse, se vautrant dans l’exceptionnalisme et la diabolisation de « L’Autre » sous une multitude de formes. L’Autre – de la République islamique d’Iran à la Chine athée, en passant par la Russie « autocratique » – est automatiquement qualifié d’incarnation du « mal ».

    La Chine, au contraire, est polythéiste, pluraliste et multipolaire. Elle loge le confucianisme, le bouddhisme et le taoïsme. Cela se reflète dans la tendance actuelle vers un système mondial multipolaire. Ce qui compte, c’est l’unité dans la multiplicité – comme Xi l’a souligné dans son discours liminaire. On y trouve la Chine et la Perse, deux civilisations anciennes – liées par l’ancienne Route de la soie – et qui se ressemblent, non pas par accident.

    Ensuite, il y a l’état épouvantable de la planète, qui éclipse le spectacle actuel, aussi épouvantable, de la folie politique. Le géographe de l’UCLA [Université de Californie à Los Angeles] et auteur de best seller mondiaux, Jared Diamond, n’est pas très précis, mais il estime qu’il y a 50% de chances pour « que le monde tel que nous le connaissons s’effondre d’ici à 2050 ». (...)

    • Far from quiet on the US vs Russia-China front
      By Pepe Escobar - May 29, 2019
      https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/05/article/far-from-quiet-on-the-us-vs-russia-china-front

      Kazakhs fear impacts of new ‘cold war’, but Putin is adamant Eurasian integration will go ahead

      Let’s start in mid-May, when Nur-Sultan, formerly Astana, hosted the third Russia-Kazakhstan Expert Forum, jointly organized by premier think tank Valdai Club and the Kazakhstan Council on International Relations.

      The ongoing, laborious and crucial interconnection of the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasia Economic Union was at the center of the debates. Kazakhstan is a pivotal member of both the BRI and EAEU.

      As Valdai Club top analyst Yaroslav Lissovolik told me, there was much discussion “on the state of play in emerging markets in light of the developments associated with the US-China trade stand-off.” What emerged was the necessity of embracing “open regionalism” as a factor to neutralize “the negative protectionist trends in the global economy.”

      This translates as regional blocks along a vast South-South axis harnessing their huge potential “to counter protections pressures”, with “different forms of economic integration other than trade liberalization” having preeminence. Enter “connectivity” – BRI’s premier focus.

      The EAEU, celebrating its fifth anniversary this year, is fully into the open regionalism paradigm, according to Lissovolik, with memoranda of understanding signed with Mercosur, ASEAN, and more free-trade agreements coming up later this year, including Serbia and Singapore. (...)

  • Victoria Nuland, US midwife to Maidan-2014, denied visa to Russia — RT World News
    https://www.rt.com/news/460124-victoria-nuland-denied-visa-russia

    Former US diplomat Victoria Nuland, best known for distributing cookies to protesters during the US-backed 2014 Maidan coup in Ukraine, has found out she was on a visa blacklist as she sought to enter Russia.

    The former US ambassador to NATO and assistant secretary of state for Eurasia is best known for supporting the coup that ousted the government in Kiev, and dismissing the concerns of Washington’s European allies about meddling in Ukraine (“F*** the EU”) in the same conversation she mentioned bringing then-VP Joe Biden to “midwife this thing.”

  • Européennes 2019 : la #Lettonie entre l’UE, l’OTAN et la Russie (WAITS pour EAP) – EurAsia Prospective
    https://eurasiaprospective.net/2018/11/23/europeenne-2019-la-voix-lituanienne-waits-pour-eap

    EurAsia Prospective : quelles sont les forces en présence en Lettonie pour les élections européennes de mai 2019 ? Et quels sont leurs points de désaccord ?

    La scène politique lettone est en pleine recomposition, laquelle a été actée à l’occasion des élections législatives qui se sont déroulées le 6 octobre 2018. Le parti européen de centre-droit Unité, au pouvoir depuis 2009, a éclaté quelques mois avant cette échéance et ses successeurs (Nouvelle unité et Par/Pour le développement de la Lettonie) n’ont pas réalisé des scores mirifiques (respectivement 12 et 6 % des voix soit 13 et 8 sièges sur les 100 que compte le Parlement). Le parti social-démocrate réputé russophile La Concorde est, comme lors des deux scrutins législatifs précédents, arrivé en tête (avec 19,8% des voix et 23 députés), tandis que des partis nouvellement apparus ont réalisé de très bons scores : le parti populiste KPL LV a obtenu 14,2% des voix et 16 députés, et le Nouveau parti conservateur (issu du parti nationaliste anti-russe, focalisé sur la lutte contre la corruption) – 13,6% et 16 députés également. Le nouveau Parlement est désormais composé de 7 partis.

  • Paléontologie : découverte en Sibérie d’une jeune métisse de 90 000 ans
    https://www.lemonde.fr/paleontologie/article/2018/08/22/paleontologie-decouverte-en-siberie-d-une-jeune-metisse-de-90-000-ans_534514


    Cet os trouvé en 2012 dans la grotte de Denisova (Altaï) par des archéologues russes appartenait à une adolescente (Denisova 11) dont la mère était néandertalienne, et le père dénisovien.
    T. HIGHAM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD

    Nous sommes tous métis, issus de brassages de populations immémoriaux. Mais Denisova 11 l’est d’une manière toute singulière. Cette ado vivait il y a environ 90 000 ans en Sibérie. Elle est morte vers l’âge de 13 ans, d’une cause inconnue, et a été enterrée dans la grotte de Denisova dans les montagnes de l’Altaï, où un fragment de ses os a été trouvé en 2012.

    Son ADN a été extrait et analysé, et son génome reconstitué a stupéfié les chercheurs : sa mère était une néandertalienne, et son père un dénisovien, deux lignées humaines disparues, dont il ne subsiste que quelques traces dans le patrimoine génétique d’une partie des hommes d’aujourd’hui.

    #paywall

    • L’article original (non accessible)…

      The genome of the offspring of a Neanderthal mother and a Denisovan father | Nature
      https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0455-x

      Abstract
      Neanderthals and Denisovans are extinct groups of hominins that separated from each other more than 390,000 years ago. Here we present the genome of ‘Denisova 11’, a bone fragment from Denisova Cave (Russia) and show that it comes from an individual who had a Neanderthal mother and a Denisovan father. The father, whose genome bears traces of Neanderthal ancestry, came from a population related to a later Denisovan found in the cave. The mother came from a population more closely related to Neanderthals who lived later in Europe than to an earlier Neanderthal found in Denisova Cave, suggesting that migrations of Neanderthals between eastern and western Eurasia occurred sometime after 120,000 years ago. The finding of a first-generation Neanderthal–Denisovan offspring among the small number of archaic specimens sequenced to date suggests that mixing between Late Pleistocene hominin groups was common when they met.

      … est annoncé en une de Nature

      Mum’s a Neanderthal, Dad’s a Denisovan: First discovery of an ancient-human hybrid
      http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06004-0

      Genetic analysis uncovers a direct descendant of two different groups of early humans.
      […]
      To find a first-generation person of mixed ancestry from these groups is absolutely extraordinary,” says population geneticist Pontus Skoglund at the Francis Crick Institute in London. “It’s really great science coupled with a little bit of luck.

    • Nous sommes tous métis, issus de brassages de populations immémoriaux. Mais Denisova 11 l’est d’une manière toute singulière. Cette ado vivait il y a environ 90 000 ans en Sibérie. Elle est morte vers l’âge de 13 ans, d’une cause inconnue, et a été enterrée dans la grotte de Denisova dans les montagnes de l’Altaï, où un fragment de ses os a été trouvé en 2012.

      Son ADN a été extrait et analysé, et son génome reconstitué a stupéfié les chercheurs : sa mère était une néandertalienne, et son père un dénisovien, deux lignées humaines disparues, dont il ne subsiste que quelques traces dans le patrimoine génétique d’une partie des hommes d’aujourd’hui.

      « Notre réaction ? La surprise », raconte Benjamin Vernot, qui a participé à ces analyses à l’Institut Max-Planck d’anthropologie évolutionniste de Leipzig, en Allemagne, la Mecque de l’étude de l’ADN ancien, dirigé par le pionnier Svante Pääbo.

      « C’était tellement fou qu’on a passé plusieurs mois à vérifier que ce n’était pas une erreur. » Les vérifications ont été jugées suffisamment solides pour que la découverte soit publiée, jeudi 23 août, dans la revue Nature.

      Précision confondante

      La grotte de Denisova est célèbre dans les cercles de la paléontologie humaine depuis qu’elle a livré un fragment d’une phalange dont l’ADN a révélé, en 2010, l’existence d’une lignée humaine inédite, à qui a été donné le nom de cette grotte.

      Cette lignée est différente des néandertaliens qui peuplaient alors l’Europe, et d’Homo sapiens qui n’allait pas tarder à supplanter toutes ces populations. Les dénisoviens ne nous sont connus que par quelques ossements et quelques dents retrouvés dans la grotte de l’Altaï : on ne sait pas à quoi ils ressemblaient, mais on a pu retrouver des fragments de leur ADN dans le génome de populations actuelles de Papouasie ou d’aborigènes australiens. Mais aussi dans celui de populations arctiques, pour lesquelles la version dénisovienne de certains gènes influençant la gestion des tissus adipeux constituerait un avantage évolutif pour résister aux grands froids.

      Mais revenons à Denisova 11. L’étude de son ADN livre des informations d’une précision confondante sur son ascendance. L’équipe de Svante Pääbo a comparé son génome à celui de Denisova 3, la première dénisovienne identifiée et datée d’environ 40 000 ans, à celui d’un néandertalien trouvé dans la même grotte, et lui vieux de 120 000 ans environ, et aussi à celui d’un Africain actuel. Cette comparaison a montré que, chez Denisova 11, 38,6 % de fragments d’ADN pris au hasard se rapprochaient des spécificités d’un génome néandertalien, et 42,3 % de celui de Denisova 3.

      Cette quasi-parité pouvait signifier deux choses : soit qu’elle appartenait à une population dont les ancêtres étaient issus d’un mélange entre néandertaliens et dénisoviens ; soit que ses propres parents appartenaient chacun à un de ses groupes. Pour l’équipe de Leipzig, c’est cette seconde interprétation qui prévaut : Denisova 11 est une métisse de première génération, sa mère était néandertalienne, son père dénisovien.

      Coexister, « au sens biblique »

      Mais son arbre généalogique est encore plus mêlé : l’analyse génétique permet de plonger dans l’ascendance de son père dénisovien – c’est la partie de l’étude réalisée par Benjamin Vernot. « Il est probable que son père dénisovien a lui-même eu un ancêtre néandertalien, voire plusieurs, dans sa généalogie, possiblement aussi loin que 300 à 600 générations avant sa naissance », écrivent les chercheurs. Vertige de la profondeur d’analyse génétique…

      Et cet héritage néandertalien viendrait d’une population différente de celle à laquelle la mère de Denisova 11 est apparentée. Celle-ci était elle-même génétiquement plus proche de néandertaliens qui ont vécu en Croatie 20 000 ans plus tard que du « Neandertal de l’Altaï » retrouvé dans la même grotte de Denisova, et lui plus vieux de 50 000 ans.

      La reconstitution de ce puzzle génétique dessine donc un monde où des lignées humaines longtemps séparées restaient interfécondes et pouvaient à l’occasion avoir une descendance aux ramifications elles-mêmes croisées des générations plus tard. Elle suggère des mouvements de population sur de vastes territoires – 6 000 kilomètres séparent la grotte croate de Vindija et celle de Denisova.

      « Ces mouvements ont longtemps été envisagés sur un axe nord-sud, commente l’archéologue Pascal Depaepe (Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives), qui n’a pas participé à l’étude. C’était sûrement bien plus compliqué avec des mouvements latéraux, en l’occurrence est-ouest, de la Sibérie vers la Croatie. » Des mouvements dont il a étudié les indices dans du mobilier archéologique (des silex taillés), en Europe occidentale, note-t-il. « Mais la Sibérie, c’est encore plus loin ! » Il n’est pas exclu non plus que la parenté consatée entre Croatie et Altaï soit due à une migration néandertalienne ouest-est plus ancienne...

      Autre enseignement : « Cela montre que les populations préhistoriques se mélangeaient assez facilement, remarque Pascal Depaepe. Elles n’ont pas fait que cohabiter, mais se sont connues au sens biblique du terme. » « Bien sûr, on savait que cela arrivait, par des analyses génétiques antérieures, constate Benjamin Vernot. Mais trouver l’os d’un descendant direct de ces métissages, c’est très cool, et l’illustration de la force de la sérendipité » – c’est-à-dire de ces choses que l’on découvre par hasard ou par chance, une dimension qui fait partie intégrante des recherches en paléontologie, selon M. Depaepe.

      Questions de « fitness »

      « Grâce à ce type d’études la génétique rejoint enfin l’archéologie qui nous montrait de profondes convergences dans les savoir-faire et les techniques des populations néandertaliennes et Denisova, se réjouit Ludovic Slimak (CNRS, Université Toulouse Jean-Jaurès). Ces convergences sont visibles dans les traditions techniques locales de ces deux populations, mais aussi plus largement vis-à-vis des populations néandertaliennes européennes. » Même si « la profondeur ethnographique de cette histoire-là nous échappe encore, note-t-il, on voit émerger quelque chose qui ressemble à une réalité concrète de ces populations humaines. Les peuples se rencontrent, se croisent, se déplacent. »

      Ces multiples métissages bousculent une nouvelle fois la définition de ce qu’est une espèce, en principe confinée dans les frontières de l’interfécondité. Svante Pääbo et ses collègues s’étaient d’ailleurs gardés, après la découverte de Denisova 3, de proposer un nom d’espèce binominal latin, comme pour Homo sapiens ou Homo neandertlhalensis. Si ces croisements étaient possibles, pourquoi néandertaliens et dénisoviens sont-ils restés génétiquement distincts ? Dans leur conclusion, Svante Pääbo et ses collègues écrivent que les premiers habitaient l’ouest de l’Eurasie, et les seconds une portion inconnue autour de l’Altaï. Les occasions de rencontres entre petits groupes, dans le temps et dans ces espaces immenses, n’étaient peut-être pas si fréquentes.

      Autre hypothèse : les individus issus de ces croisements auraient pu être en moins bonne santé que leurs parents et moins aptes à laisser une descendance – les scientifiques parlent de « fitness ». A l’inverse, notent-ils, l’arrivée de groupes plus nombreux d’Homo sapiens en Eurasie, venus d’Afrique autour de 60 000 ans, et eux aussi capables de se reproduire avec ces populations archaïques, a pu aboutir à leur « absorption » – un autre terme pour dire disparition.

  • Who needs democracy when you have data? - MIT Technology Review
    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611815/who-needs-democracy-when-you-have-data

    Hu Jintao, China’s leader from 2002 to 2012, had attempted to solve these problems by permitting a modest democratic thaw, allowing avenues for grievances to reach the ruling class. His successor, Xi Jinping, has reversed that trend. Instead, his strategy for understanding and responding to what is going on in a nation of 1.4 billion relies on a combination of surveillance, AI, and big data to monitor people’s lives and behavior in minute detail.

    As far as we know, there is no single master blueprint linking technology and governance in China. But there are several initiatives that share a common strategy of harvesting data about people and companies to inform decision-making and create systems of incentives and punishments to influence behavior. These initiatives include the State Council’s 2014 “Social Credit System,” the 2016 Cybersecurity Law, various local-level and private-enterprise experiments in “social credit,” “smart city” plans, and technology-driven policing in the western region of Xinjiang. Often they involve partnerships between the government and China’s tech companies.

    The most far-reaching is the Social Credit System, though a better translation in English might be the “trust” or “reputation” system. The government plan, which covers both people and businesses, lists among its goals the “construction of sincerity in government affairs, commercial sincerity, and judicial credibility.” (“Everybody in China has an auntie who’s been swindled. There is a legitimate need to address a breakdown in public trust,” says Paul Triolo, head of the geotechnology practice at the consultancy Eurasia Group.) To date, it’s a work in progress, though various pilots preview how it might work in 2020, when it is supposed to be fully implemented.

    Blacklists are the system’s first tool. For the past five years, China’s court system has published the names of people who haven’t paid fines or complied with judgments. Under new social-credit regulations, this list is shared with various businesses and government agencies. People on the list have found themselves blocked from borrowing money, booking flights, and staying at luxury hotels. China’s national transport companies have created additional blacklists, to punish riders for behavior like blocking train doors or picking fights during a journey; offenders are barred from future ticket purchases for six or 12 months. Earlier this year, Beijing debuted a series of blacklists to prohibit “dishonest” enterprises from being awarded future government contracts or land grants.

    A few local governments have experimented with social-credit “scores,” though it’s not clear if they will be part of the national plan.

    “The idea of social credit is to monitor and manage how people and institutions behave,” says Samantha Hoffman of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. “Once a violation is recorded in one part of the system, it can trigger responses in other parts of the system. It’s a concept designed to support both economic development and social management, and it’s inherently political.” Some parallels to parts of China’s blueprint already exist in the US: a bad credit score can prevent you from taking out a home loan, while a felony conviction suspends or annuls your right to vote, for example. “But they’re not all connected in the same way—there’s no overarching plan,” Hoffman points out.

    One of the biggest concerns is that because China lacks an independent judiciary, citizens have no recourse for disputing false or inaccurate allegations.

    In the last two years thousands of checkpoints have been set up at which passersby must present both their face and their national ID card to proceed on a highway, enter a mosque, or visit a shopping mall. Uighurs are required to install government-­designed tracking apps on their smartphones, which monitor their online contacts and the web pages they’ve visited. Police officers visit local homes regularly to collect further data on things like how many people live in the household, what their relationships with their neighbors are like, how many times people pray daily, whether they have traveled abroad, and what books they have.

    All these data streams are fed into Xinjiang’s public security system, along with other records capturing information on everything from banking history to family planning. “The computer program aggregates all the data from these different sources and flags those who might become ‘a threat’ to authorities,” says Wang. Though the precise algorithm is unknown, it’s believed that it may highlight behaviors such as visiting a particular mosque, owning a lot of books, buying a large quantity of gasoline, or receiving phone calls or email from contacts abroad. People it flags are visited by police, who may take them into custody and put them in prison or in reeducation camps without any formal charges.

    #Chine #Surveillance #Social_ranking #Social_credits

  • Les routes de l’orge.
    L’orge s’est propagée vers l’est : un article révèle des voies de propagation à travers divers paysages eurasiens. Et c’est encore un résultat d’une analyse génétique.

    L’une des cultures les plus importantes au monde, l’orge, a été domestiquée au Proche-Orient il y a environ 11 000 ans. L’orge est une culture très résiliente, capable de pousser dans des environnements variés et marginaux, comme dans les régions de haute altitude et de latitude. Des preuves archéobotaniques montrent que l’orge s’est répandue dans toute l’Eurasie vers 2000 BC. Pour mieux comprendre les voies de propagation de l’orge en Eurasie, [les chercheurs ont] utilisé l’analyse de séquences répétées (SSR) pour déterminer la diversité génétique et la structure de la population de trois taxons d’orge existants : l’orge domestique (Hordeum vulgare L. subsp vulgare), l’orge sauvage (H. vulgare sous-espèce spontaneum) et une forme de rachis cassant à six rangs (H. vulgare sous-espèce vulgare et agriocrithon (Aberg) Bowd.).

    L’orge cultivée se propageait à travers l’Eurasie via plusieurs voies différentes, qui étaient très probablement séparées à la fois dans le temps et dans l’espace. Les datations directes au radiocarbone publiées récemment et fournies par Liu et al. [ Journey to the east : Diverse routes and variable flowering times for wheat and barley en route to prehistoric Chinahttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0187405_ ], ainsi que les dates publiées précédemment (par exemple [ _https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.3382 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2015.07.002, http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0196652#_ ]), ont fourni un cadre précieux pour considérer ces modèles phylogéographiques, comme l’a fait un article original de Zhao [http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0196652#]_ , qui a proposé une variété des routes ont été prises par les agriculteurs s’étendant vers l’est en Chine.

    [Les auteurs proposent] la chronologie suivante pour la propagation de la culture de l’orge en Eurasie :

    1/ L’IAMC [Inner Asian Mountain Corridor]
    Plusieurs pools génétiques d’orge avec différents caractères morphologiques et génotypes de temps de floraison se sont répandus à travers l’IAMC au 2ème millénaire cal. BC. De l’IAMC, l’orge s’est dispersée plus au nord et à l’est au 1er millénaire. BC.

    2/ Une route vers le sud du plateau tibétain
    Un pool distinctif d’orge des basses terres s’étendait vers l’est au sud du plateau iranien au 5ème et 4ème millénaire BC. et à travers l’Asie du Sud, enserrant la limite du plateau, avec des dattes dans le nord de l’Inde au 3ème millénaire avant notre ère.

    3/ Une route maritime entre l’Asie du Sud et la Chine, la Corée et le Japon
    Bien que non encore confirmé, un lien maritime entre la civilisation de l’Indus et la Chine côtière aurait pu amener l’orge en Chine du 3 au 2 millénaire. BC., avec une possible voie maritime ultérieure durant la période Han, à la fin du 1er millénaire BC. / début du 1er millénaire AD. Ce pool de gènes a un SGH d’hiver, qui peut avoir été sélectionné pour croître en rotation avec une culture de riz d’été.

    4/ Une propagation en haute altitude sur le bord sud du plateau tibétain
    Un pool de gènes distinctif, principalement avec un SGH hivernal et un caryopse nu, s’est propagé autour de la bordure sud du plateau tibétain, probablement dans le plateau depuis son extrémité ouest ou sud au début du 2e millénaire BC. Ce pool de gènes est également présent dans le plateau nord-est par c. 2 000 cal. BC.

    5/ Une route le long du bord nord du plateau tibétain
    Au cours du 1er millénaire BC., deux pools génétiques d’orge ont été dispersés au Xinjiang au nord du plateau tibétain, au moins 1 000 ans après leur extension au sud du plateau tibétain. Ces pools génétiques auraient pu traverser le corridor Tianshan d’est en ouest ou d’ouest en est.

    6/ Une propagation aux latitudes élevée dans la steppe nord
    Trois groupes de gènes principalement nordiques, avec différents génotypes de temps de floraison, se sont dispersés vers le nord depuis le sud de l’Asie centrale depuis la fin du 2e et le début du 1er millénaire. BC. Un éventuel mouvement de trans-steppe d’orge s’est produit vers la fin de cette période, ou pendant les périodes historiques plus tardives.

    7/ Une propagation en deux étapes au Japon
    Un gisement de gènes du nord s’est propagé à Hokkaido depuis l’Extrême-Orient russe, vers le milieu et vers la fin du 1er millénaire AD. Un pool de gènes différent s’est répandu au Japon depuis le sud, au cours de la fin du 1er millénaire BC. Ces dates renvoient à des preuves substantielles de la culture de l’orge au Japon.

    Barley heads east : Genetic analyses reveal routes of spread through diverse Eurasian landscapes
    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0196652
    http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/figure/image?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0196652.strk&size=inline

    #Préhistoire #agriculture #Néolithique #4000BC #Asie #routes #carte
    #Diane_L._Lister #Huw_Jones #Hugo_R_Oliveira #The_John_Bingham_Laboratory_NIAB_ Cambridge #McDonald_Institute_for_Archaeological_Research #Manchester Institute_of_Biotechnology_University of Manchester #University_of_Cambridge

  • Tourbillon crisique-51
    http://www.dedefensa.org/article/tourbillon-crisique-51

    Tourbillon crisique-51

    7 juiin 2018 – Quand vous avez deux gentils jeunes hommes comme Macron et Trudeau qui discutent et que le premier dit au second, comme pour le rassurer( ?), « Aucun dirigeant n’est éternel », et cela parlant du président Trump, vous êtes fondé à vous dire qu’il se passe des choses peu communes et qu’ils iront tous demain à la réunion du G7 avec un pistolet à la ceinture. On dit même que Merkel est décidée à dire toutes ses vérités à Trump, et la liste est impressionnante. On ajoute même que ce G7 pourrait bien se terminer sans communiqué commun, marquant l’extraordinaire désunion de ce que nous nommons “bloc-BAO”.

    Un monsieur qui se nomme Ian Bremner et qui dirige l’Eurasia Group, une forme de consultance pour les prises de risques politiques, juge le G7 de demain comme le plus (...)

  • Début de changement de ton au Monde ? (#paywall)
    Avec la chute de la Ghouta orientale, les prisons rebelles commencent à livrer leurs secrets
    http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2018/03/28/avec-la-chute-de-la-ghouta-orientale-les-prisons-rebelles-commencent-a-livre

    Les prisons tenues par les rebelles de Jaych Al-Islam, dans la région de Douma, ont longtemps été un sujet tabou parmi les habitants de la Ghouta orientale, par peur de représailles de la part du puissant groupe armé. Avec courage, des militants de l’opposition ont toutefois dénoncé ses méthodes d’intimidation et sa pratique de la torture. Au fil des ans, des dissidents ou des combattants de factions rivales ont échoué dans les geôles, officielles ou clandestines, du groupe. D’autres prisonniers, assimilés au régime, y ont aussi été incarcérés.

    Avec la reprise de la Ghouta orientale par le régime, ces prisons pourraient désormais livrer une partie de leurs mystères. Mais seul le sort des militaires et des civils, dont des femmes et des enfants enlevés en zone loyaliste, a fait partie des récentes négociations entre les Russes et Jaych Al-Islam.

    Sujet tabou parmi les habitants

  • What’s at Stake for Oil as Trump Appoints Another Iran Hawk? - Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/what-s-at-stake-for-oil-as-trump-appoints-another-iran-hawk

    Iran is trying to attract more than $100 billion from international oil companies to boost crude and condensate output by about 25 percent to more than 5 million barrels a day. Without new investment from international companies production will stagnate.

    Trump’s disdain for the nuclear deal has already deterred investors from the country, the third-biggest producer in OPEC. Of the Western energy majors, only France’s Total SA has returned, and its gas venture is proceeding slowly. Iranian officials are already complaining that western oil companies are too cautious to return to the country and there are signs that Russian companies are stepping in to fill the vacuum.

    Total has the biggest financial stake of any international energy major, having pledged to invest $1 billion in the first phase of an offshore natural gas project. Overall investment in the project could reach $5 billion, and while the company is determined to press ahead, Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne has promised to review the legal consequences of any new U.S. restrictions.
    […]
    Three years ago, in a New York Times op-ed titled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran,” Bolton argued that the only way to prevent Tehran obtaining nuclear weapons was a military strike. He cited Israel’s preemptive strike in 1981 on Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor as an example of effective action.

    Bolton downplayed the significance of his past public statements in an interview with Fox News shortly after the appointment was announced, saying he would defer to the president’s judgment.

    I’ve never been shy about what my views are,” Bolton said. But, he added, that “now is behind me, at least effective April 9, and the important thing is what the president says and what advice I give him.

    Bolton’s appointment has lots of implications beyond just Iran, Ian Bremmer, president of consultant Eurasia Group, said on Twitter. It also makes Trump’s scheduled talks with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-Un riskier, he said.

    Thursday was “probably the worst/biggest single day for geopolitical risk since I started Eurasia Group in 1998,” Bremmer said on Twitter.

  • Indian Punchline - Reflections on foreign affairs
    By M K Bhadrakuma – July 23, 2017
    http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2017/07/23/a-new-normal-in-russia-china-military-cooperation

    No sooner than the annual Malabar 2017 exercise (July 14-17) ended in Bay of Bengal, another naval exercise has begun with equally profound geopolitical implications for India – Joint Sea 2017, Russia’s week-long joint drills with China (July 21-26) in the Baltic Sea. Each highlights in its own way the realignments under way in the Asia-Pacific and Eurasia. India is a participant in one, more than a curious observer in the other.
    The four-day Malabar-2017 (US, India and Japan) had a distinct anti-China flavor. India downplayed that aspect, while Japan hyped it up and the US embellished the optic. The Japanese ambassador to India Kenji Hiramatsu penned a rare opinion piece, euphorically hailing Malabar-17 as the harbinger of an Asian security alliance.
    On the other hand, Joint Sea 2017 is being watched closely by Western powers and reportedly “raised alarm in Washington” (Telegraph). Interestingly, it comes in two parts. The Baltic exercise will be followed by a second Russia-China naval exercise in September in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk. Indeed, the Baltics is to Russia’s defence line vis-à-vis NATO what the Sea of Japan is to China’s vis-a-vis the US-Japanese alliance.

  • Dans le cadre de l’enquête sur un scandale de #corruption lié au groupe pétrolier brésilien #Petrobras, Marcelo Odebrecht, ancien dirigeant du géant du bâtiment du même nom, a été condamné mardi 8 mars à 19 ans de prison. En octobre 2013, Anne Vigna enquêtait sur cet empire familial.

    Les Brésiliens aussi ont leur Bouygues
    https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2013/10/VIGNA/49721 #st

    Souvent décrit comme une société de construction-ingénierie, #Odebrecht s’est depuis longtemps diversifié pour devenir le plus grand groupe industriel du #Brésil. Energie (gaz, pétrole, nucléaire), eau, agro-industrie, immobilier, défense, transports, finance, assurances, services environnementaux ou encore pétrochimie : la liste de ses activités relève de l’inventaire à la Prévert. Néanmoins, si le brésilien est celui qui construit le plus de barrages dans le monde, avec onze chantiers menés de front en 2012, le secteur de la pétrochimie génère plus de 60 % de ses revenus. Braskem, le « bijou » qu’il partage avec le groupe pétrolier Petrobras, produit et exporte dans une soixantaine de pays des résines de plastique.

    Le groupe — pardon !, « l’organisation », comme on est prié de le nommer — dispose désormais de sièges dans vingt-sept pays et emploie plus de deux cent cinquante mille personnes, dont quatre-vingt mille de façon indirecte. En dix ans, son chiffre d’affaires a été multiplié par six, passant de l’équivalent de 5 milliards d’euros en 2002 à 32,3 milliards dix ans plus tard. « Odebrecht est l’un des groupes brésiliens qui ont le plus spectaculairement grandi ces dix dernières années, pour devenir en quelque sorte la colonne vertébrale de l’économie nationale », résume João Augusto de Castro Neves, chargé de l’Amérique latine au centre d’analyses économiques Eurasia Group.

    http://zinc.mondediplo.net/messages/20557 via Le Monde diplomatique

  • Analysis: No happy outcome in Syria as conflict turns into proxy war
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/01/us-syria-crisis-scenario-idUSBRE8700S420120801

    With the Shi’ite Islamic Republic of Iran behind Assad, and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Muslim states backing the rebels, Syria could become the arena in which the regional Sunni-Shi’ite cold war becomes an open-ended civil war with the potential to destabilize its neighbors - Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan.

    “We most definitely have a proxy war in Syria,” says Ayham Kamel of the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy. “At this point of the conflict it is difficult not to say that the international dimension of the Syrian conflict precedes the domestic one.”

    “Syria is an open field now. The day after Assad falls you (will) have all of these different groups with different agendas, with different allegiances, with different states supporting them yet unable to form a coherent leadership.”

    What started on March 15, 2011 as an internal uprising against the Assads’ repressive 40-year rule, emulating the revolts that toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, has now been transformed into an arena for foreign meddling.