Never before have German politicians so studiously avoided telling their countrymen the truth. That might be understandable given the troubled state of the world, but it’s still dangerous.
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However, unlike Japan’s nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which spurred German Chancellor Angela Merkel to phase out atomic energy in Europe’s largest economy, this flip-flop wasn’t caused by an unforeseeable natural disaster. Instead, it was a completely predictable state of affairs: When a growing number of people attempt to flee those destabilized regions adjoining Europe and ever fewer ships are made available to save them from the sea, more refugees will die. E.U. politicians knew this was the case, they even made it happen – they just didn’t care to admit it publicly.
This episode feeds a suspicion that many have long assumed: Do politicians in Berlin and Brussels avoid saying everything they think, hiding their core concerns, when it comes to some very fundamental questions? The answer is a clear yes.
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Sometimes all the fears gripping leading German politicians simply bubble forth from them, as they stand on the brink of overwhelming political depression. If the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, Greece ends up going bankrupt, and the horrid far-right populist Marine Le Pen becomes French president, isolating her country, and then the British leave the European Union, then, yes, then, but please don’t write that down. These are occasionally creative, almost lively discussions, where the new reality is breathlessly painted in broad, tentative brushes. But regardless if wise from age or bordering on burnout, curious or just confused, the gist is generally speaking that the presiding order is breaking down, at least partially.
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This world, that the West just barely seemed to have under control, has now been almost completely submerged. It was almost a miracle that more international catastrophes didn’t happen at the same time. The world apparently knew we couldn’t handle it. The rest was easy to ignore. But that’s all changed now. Greece, Russia, Islamist terrorism – the crises have all come at once. They’ve become too strong for us to ignore and wish away.
Something else has also changed and it’s hard to say when it exactly happened, after the Russians invaded Crimea, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the third outbreak of the Greek crisis, or when the Middle East descended into chaos: Nobody believes anymore that we’re living through some exceptional phase; nobody dares hope that the Arabs will soon forge peace or that Vladimir Putin will focus on modernizing Russia and stop provoking his neighbors.
Crisis has become the new normal. The years between 1990 and now were the exception.
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People aren’t just being shielded from the insecurity of their politicians; they are also being cheated of many potential solutions to overcome it. Because, behind the scenes, away from the public limelight, Frank-Walter Steinmeier is trying to redefine in a “review process” the foundations of German foreign policy as a leading nation in wild international times. German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen is discussing the still-unclear future of the Bundeswehr with a commission working to develop a white paper. Chancellor Angela Merkel is, step by step, becoming clearer, be it on epochal topics like Islam, or her approach towards dealing with Mr. Putin’s Russia – even the European Union has become a fundamental issue for her. But she’s still barely connecting the dots.