• Fact check: Is sea rescue a pull factor for refugees?

    For years there have been claims that sea rescue is a pull factor in asylum-related migration. But is this theory true?

    What is the debate about?

    Some argue that more people will dare to embark on the perilous journey across the Mediterranean, for instance from Libya or Morocco to Europe, because they believe they will be rescued from boats that are often not even seaworthy.

    Conservative politicians in particular regard sea rescue as an incentive to migrate. As a result, they criticize civilian sea rescue operations including Sea-Watch and Sea-Eye, groups that rescue tens of thousands of people in the Mediterranean every year. In some cases, the rescuers have been accused of colluding with smugglers, which in turn means they support human trafficking — an accusation the NGOs reject.

    EU ships no longer patrol along the migration routes and have saved hardly any lives since the naval mission Operation Sophia ended in spring 2020. One of the reasons why state rescue at sea has been so severely restricted is that Italy and Austria, for instance, feared these missions would lead to a rise in the influx of refugees and migrants.

    So-called push and pull factors play an important role in EU policy and discussions about limiting and managing migration.

    Whereas push factors refer to circumstances that turn people away from their countries of origin — war or environmental disasters — pull factors are those that attract people or create incentives for them to come to Europe, including political stability and prosperity as well as liberal immigration laws.
    Research status

    So far, there is not much sound research. According to Julian Wucherpfennig, professor of international affairs and security at the Berlin-based Hertie School of Governance, this is partly due to the poor data situation — and partly to the complexity of the issue. “Cause and effect are difficult to separate,” the scientist said, adding it’s like studying whether the number of lifeguards has an effect on the number of bathers.

    Some research on the issue does exist, however. The 2017 study Blaming the Rescuers by Charles Heller and Lorenzo Pezzani of the University of London looks at when and where how many people fled across the Mediterranean until 2016. The researchers juxtapose this data with the periods in which European rescue and border protection missions were active. They could not establish a correlation.
    2015: Numbers down despite a rise in the number of NGOs?

    Sea Rescue NGOs: A Pull Factor of Irregular Immigration? is a dossier that focuses on civilian sea rescue as a possible pull factor and analyzes migration from Libya to Italy from 2014 to 2019. Here too, authors #Eugenio_Cusumano of the European University Institute and #Matteo_Villa of the Italian Institute for International Political Science Studies “could not find any correlation between the presence of NGOs at sea and the number of migrants.”

    According to the dossier, the total number of departures in 2015 from Libya fell slightly compared to the previous year, although the number of migrants rescued by NGOs rose sharply. “The results of our analysis challenge the claim that non-governmental rescue operations are a pull factor of irregular migration across the Mediterranean,” the authors of the 2019 paper wrote.

    “Unintended consequences” of sea rescue

    Claudio Deiana (University of Cagliari), Vikram Maheshri (University of Houston) and Giovanni Mastrobuoni (University of Turin) came to a different conclusion in their Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations study.

    A rise in rescue activities in the Mediterranean led smugglers to switch from seaworthy wooden boats to inflatable boats of poorer quality, they found, concluding that the fact that more people risk the journey to Europe under worse conditions could be an “unintended consequence” of sea rescue.

    However, most of their colleagues have not arrived at the same conclusion. Almost all other scientific studies assume that rescue at sea does not lead to more crossings, according to the Hertie School’s Julian Wucherpfennig.

    Consequences for smugglers

    Many researchers conclude it seems logical that rescue activities don’t have so much of an impact on the refugees as on how the smugglers react — they could, as reported by Deiana, Maheshri and Mastrobuoni, choose less seaworthy boats and send them out with less fuel.

    “The reality is that there are many other variables that play a role in departures — like weather conditions and the security situation and monitoring of the coast — that would affect departures more than anything else,” Safa Msehli, spokeswoman for theInternational Organization for Migration (IOM),told DW. Over the past years, there have been many departures even when there were no rescue boats at sea — “and accordingly, a large number of deaths,” she said.
    Push factors play a bigger role

    But push factors — war, political persecution, and extreme poverty —are much more important for migrants and refugees, other researchers argue.

    “In our opinion, the push factors are much higher than anything else alleged (...) People are stuck in a cycle of abuse,” said IOM spokesman Msehli. “They end up in detention, forced labor, abuse, in many cases, torture, disappearances. And those are the conditions that migrants are mentioning to us that permit them to take such a difficult journey.”
    Sea rescue, an incentive for migrants?

    There is no proof that sea rescue has a direct effect on the influx of migrants and refugees to Europe. Most studies suggest that rescue activities do not increase the number of departures from the North African coast.

    However, the claim that sea rescue acts as a pull factor cannot be unequivocally refuted either. Almost all researchers who have studied the issue say more data and further research are needed.
    What it means for EU policies

    The cutbacks in state rescue at sea and the hurdles for civilian rescue at sea, such as detaining ships in ports or banning them from entering, are based on assumptions that are not substantiated.

    Sea rescue as a pull factor seems so obvious to many that they hardly question the assumption, nor do they require any evidence for it, Matteo Villa wrote in an article for Germany’s Die Zeit weekly. Yet the evidence to date would suggest that more lives could be saved “without risking many more people setting off for Europe. Unfortunately, the EU is choosing a different path.”


    #pull-factor #facteur_pull #appel_d'air #sauvetage #Méditerranée

    ping @isskein @karine4

  • Why ’stronger borders’ don’t work

    Thousands of people die annually trying to cross borders. It’s often argued stronger borders and more checks would deter people from making dangerous crossings. But how accurate is this? Maya Goodfellow explores what the current border regime means for people seeking asylum

    #fermeture_des_frontières #asile #migrations #réfugiés #walls_don't_work #dissuasion #frontières #problème #solution #vidéo #externalisation #vulnérabilité #danger #péril #militarisation_des_frontières #ressources_pédagogiques #pull_factor #facteur_pull #stéréotypes #préjugés #pull-factor #audition #voies_légales #réinstallation

    Cette carte

    #cartographie #visualisation #frontières_intérieures #Schengen (fin de -)
    ping @karine4 @isskein

  • IL «PULL FACTOR» NON ESISTE. Con #SeaWatch3 da 12 giorni al largo di #Lampedusa, terzo aggiornamento. Tra l’1 maggio e il 21 giugno dalla #Libia sono partite almeno 3.926 persone. Con Ong al largo, 62 partenze al giorno. Senza Ong, 76 partenze.

    Se ci limitiamo ai soli giorni di giugno, il dato è ancora più eclatante. Con #SeaWatch3 al largo, dalla #Libia sono partite 52 persone al giorno. Senza Ong, 94 partenze.

    Tra l’1 maggio e il 21 giugno dalla #Libia sono partite almeno 3.962 persone. 431 partite quando le Ong erano al largo delle coste libiche. 3.495 partite senza nessun assetto europeo (pubblicamente) in mare a fare ricerca e soccorso.

    NB: non è che senza Ong in mare si parta di più — sarebbe un pull factor all’incontrario. La differenza tra le partenze al giorno dalla Libia, con o senza Ong, non è significativa. Semplicemente, non c’è alcuna correlazione tra attività Ong in mare e partenze.

    #Matteo_Villa #pull-factor #facteur_pull #appel_d'air #statistiques #chiffres #fact-checking #2019 #Méditerranée #ONG #asile #migrations #réfugiés #frontières #démonstration #déconstruction #Libye #départs

    ping @isskein

    • "Lampedusa ha superato da tempo la sua capacità d’accoglienza: sull’isola ci sono già i 42 passeggeri della Sea-Watch 3, sbarcati dopo 17 giorni di attraversata, e altri cento arrivati senza creare scalpore. Su di loro il ministro dell’interno Matteo Salvini non ha speso nemmeno una parola. Però quando la Sea-Watch 3 ha fatto rotta verso la costa italiana Salvini ha scatenato il putiferio.
      In effetti in Italia continuano ad arrivare i migranti: mille a giugno, più di 2500 all’inizio dell’anno. Certo, sono molti meno rispetto a un paio di anni fa, ma comunque troppi rispetto alle promesse fatte da Salvini agli elettori. Come deve presentare questi numeri? C’è sempre un’invasione da combattere, o si tratta di una cifra relativamente piccola e tollerabile? Nel primo caso avrebbe fallito, nel secondo caso il tema diventerebbe secondario. E forse per Salvini la seconda opzione è perfino peggiore della prima.
      Il leader della Lega, infatti, deve assolutamente mantenere il tema dei migranti al centro del dibattito politico italiano, è il suo terreno di battaglia preferito, soprattutto in vista di eventuali elezioni anticipate a settembre. Salvini spera che la Lega si affermi come primo partito d’Italia e aspira a diventare presidente del consiglio. Fino ad allora deve tenere in vita l’immagine dell’uomo che sa imporsi, altrimenti le sue speranze di vittoria sono perdute. Un nuovo nemico, deve aver pensato Salvini, lo farebbe uscire dal vicolo cieco. E quale miglior nemico degli ’aiutanti dei trafficanti’, come spesso ha definito le navi gestite da volontari che salvano i naufraghi in mare? Grazie a loro arriva in Italia un numero irrilevante di profughi, ma sono la controparte perfetta per la sua messinscena. Per questo ha alzato il livello dello scontro con la Sea-Watch 3.

      Source: Hans-Jürgen Schlamp, «Una nemica perfetta», in Internazionale, n°1314, juillet 2019 (original: Der Spiegel), pp.19-20.
      #Salvini #Carola_Rackete #Rackete #Matteo_Salvini

    • Con #OpenArms ancora al largo e #OceanViking che ha fatto un salvataggio, RECAP.

      Tra l’1 gennaio e il 9 agosto dalla #Libia sono partite almeno 8.551 persone.

      Con Ong al largo, 31 partenze al giorno.
      Senza Ong, 41 partenze al giorno.

      1.624 partite quando le Ong erano al largo delle coste libiche.
      6.927 partite senza nessun assetto europeo a fare ricerca e soccorso.


    • Sea rescue NGOs : a pull factor of irregular migration?

      The argument that maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) operations act as a ‘pull factor’ of irregular seaborne migration has become commonplace during the Mediterranean ‘refugee crisis’. This claim has frequently been used to criticize humanitarian non-governmental organizations (NGOs) conducting SAR off the coast of Libya, which are considered to provide “an incentive for human smugglers to arrange departures” (Italian Senate 2017: 9). In this policy brief, we scrutinise this argument by examining monthly migratory flows from Libya to Italy between 2014 and October 2019. We find no relationship between the presence of NGOs at sea and the number of migrants leaving Libyan shores. Although more data and further research are needed, the results of our analysis call into question the claim that non-governmental SAR operations are a pull factor of irregular migration across the Mediterranean sea.


    • Migrants from Libya not driven by hope of being rescued at sea – study

      No link found between number of Mediterranean crossings and level of NGO rescue ship activity.

      No valid statistical link exists between the likelihood that migrants will be rescued at sea and the number of attempted Mediterranean crossings, a study has found. The findings challenge the widespread claim in Europe that NGO search and rescue activity has been a pull factor for migrants.

      Fear that the NGOs’ missions attract immigrants has been the basis for measures restricting humanitarian ships including requiring them to sign up to codes of conduct or simply blocking them from leaving port.

      It is the first detailed study of NGOs’ proactive search and rescue activity between 2014 and October 2019, but the findings focus most closely on the first nine months of this year, a period when Europe had withdrawn from all search and rescue activity leaving only NGOs or the Libyan guard. The research was undertaken by two Italian researchers, Eugenio Cusumano and Matteo Villa, from the European University Institute (https://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/65024).

      Drawing on official statistics and examining three-day averages, the study showed the numbers rescued depend on the numbers leaving. It found a stronger link this year between the number of migrant crossings and either political stability in Libya or the weather, rather than NGO ships at sea.

      The study found that in 2015, the total number of departures from Libya slightly decreased relative to 2014 even though migrants rescued by NGOs increased from 0.8 to 13% of the total number of people rescued at sea. After July 2017, the number of migrants departing from Libya plummeted even though NGOs had become far and away the largest provider of search and rescue by far.

      It also found that in the 85 days in which the NGOs were present in the search and rescue mission there were no more departures than the 225 days in which there were Libyan patrol boats.

      Instead, the study showed the big decline in crossings in 2017 was linked to the deal struck between the Italian government and various Libyan militia to keep migrants from attempting sea crossings.

      The study looks at figures from the International Organisation for Migration, the UN refugee agency UNHCR and the Italian coastguard.

      Over the five years the humanitarian ships have rescued a total of 115,000 migrants out of 650,000 with an average of 18%. In 2019 alone, at least 1,078 migrants have died or gone missing, according to the UN, while trying to reach safety in Europe.

      While the EU recognises the Libyan coastguard and is also funding and training its work, there is no overall agreement about how asylum seekers should be dealt with in an equitable and EU-wide manner.


    • ONG en Méditerranée : les secours en mer ne créent pas d’« appel d’air »

      Deux chercheurs italiens contestent, dans une étude parue lundi, la corrélation parfois suggérée par les politiques entre présence des ONG en mer Méditerranée et nombre de départs de bateaux clandestins des côtes libyennes.

      Marine Le Pen, députée française, le 12 juin 2018 : « Derrière le vernis humanitaire, les ONG ont un rôle objectif de complices des mafias de passeurs. […] Accepter que les bateaux de migrants accostent crée un appel d’air irresponsable ! » Christophe Castaner, ministre de l’Intérieur français, le 5 avril 2019 : « Les ONG ont pu se faire complices [des passeurs]. » Matteo Salvini, alors ministre de l’Intérieur italien, le 7 juillet 2019 : « Je n’autorise aucun débarquement à ceux qui se moquent totalement des lois italiennes et aident les passeurs. » Cette rengaine selon laquelle en menant des opérations de recherches et de sauvetages (SAR) en mer Méditerranée les organisations non gouvernementales provoqueraient des départs massifs d’immigrés clandestins vers l’Europe, a la vie dure.

      De SOS Méditerranée à Proactiva Open Arms en passant par SeaWatch, les ONG contestent ce lien – surtout fait par des politiques de droite et d’extrême droite – mais rien ne permettait jusqu’ici de trancher la question d’une éventuelle relation de cause à effet entre présence des ONG en mer et nombre de départs des côtes libyennes. Deux chercheurs ont rendu publique ce lundi une étude, réalisée pour l’European University Institute de Florence (Italie), qui étudie ce phénomène. La conclusion de Matteo Villa et Eugenio Cusumano, qui précisent que les données sont peu nombreuses, est claire : « Notre analyse suggère que les opérations de SAR non gouvernementales n’ont pas de corrélation avec le nombre de migrants quittant la Libye par la mer. »

      En 2015, le nombre de départs de Libye a même un peu baissé par rapport à 2014, alors que la part des ONG dans le nombre total de sauvetages a augmenté, passant de 0,8% des opérations à 13%. Entre janvier et octobre 2019, le nombre de départs par jour était, lui, légèrement supérieur lorsqu’il n’y avait sur la zone pas d’ONG – lesquelles sont soumises à des pressions gouvernementales et peinent à être autorisées à débarquer les rescapés en Europe. « Par contraste, une grosse corrélation existe entre les départs de migrants et les conditions météorologiques sur la côte libyenne, autant qu’avec la très forte instabilité politique en Libye depuis avril 2019 », indiquent les chercheurs.


    • "Non è vero che la presenza delle Ong in mare fa aumentare le partenze dei migranti dalla Libia"

      Due ricercatori italiani firmano per lo European University Institute la prima analisi sui soccorsi in mare dal 2014 al 2019. Il crollo dei viaggi provocato dagli accordi con Tripoli.

      Il «pull factor delle Ong» sui flussi migratori dalla Libia non esiste. L’affermazione che, da tre anni a questa parte è alla base dei provvedimenti che hanno ormai messo all’angolo le navi umanitarie, buona parte delle quali sotto sequestro da mesi, è una favola. A provarlo è il primo studio sistemico, su dati ufficiali dalle agenzie delle Nazioni unite ma anche dalle guardie costiere italiana e libica, firmato da due ricercatori italiani, Eugenio Cusumano e Matteo Villa, per lo European University Institute. La ricerca, che prende in esame, mensilmente, cinque anni di sbarchi in Italia (da ottobre 2014 a ottobre 2019) dimostra che non vi è alcuna relazione tra la presenza nel Mediterraneo delle navi umanitarie e il numero delle partenze dalle coste libiche.

      In questi cinque anni, le navi umanitarie hanno soccorso complessivamente 115.000 migranti su 650.000, con una media del 18 per cento, la più parte nel 2016 e nel 2017 dopo la fine dell’operazione Mare Nostrum. Poi il codice di condotta voluto da Marco Minniti nell’estate 2017 e il decreto sicurezza di Matteo Salvini hanno condizionato pesantemente l’attività delle Ong.

      Il lavoro dei due ricercatori italiani smonta l’assunto secondo il quale più alto è il numero delle persone salvate, più alto è il numero di quelle che partono. Cusumano e Villa rovesciano l’approccio e dimostrano che il numero dei salvati dipende dal numero di coloro che partono. E a sostegno dell’analisi portano due dati: nel 2015, l’anno in cui le Ong dispiegano la flotta in mare aumentando i loro soccorsi dallo 0,8 al 13 per cento, il numero complessivo delle partenze risulta in calo rispetto all’anno precedente. E ancora, nella seconda metà del 2017, nonostante le tante navi umanitarie presenti, il numero degli sbarchi crolla.

      Dunque, è la conclusione della ricerca, ad avere un forte impatto sulle partenze sono stati gli accordi tra Italia e Libia che hanno decisamente portato ad un abbattimento del numero delle imbarcazioni messe in mare. E ancora nel 2019, quando sparite le navi militari, il peso dei soccorsi è rimasto solo sulle navi umanitarie, i due ricercatori hanno rilevato giorno per giorno partenze e salvataggi senza trovare alcune evidenza che negli 85 giorni in cui erano presenti le Ong in zona Sar ci siano state più partenze rispetto ai 225 giorni in cui c’erano solo le motovedette libiche. E con tutta evidenza i giorni con più partenze sono stati quelli di bel tempo o ad aprile in coincidenza con gli attacchi del generale Haftar.


    • Das Märchen von den Rettern und vom «Pull-Faktor»

      Die Studie zweier italienischer Migrationsforscher widerlegt das beliebteste Argument rechter NGO-Kritiker.

      Kein anderer Vorwurf wird gegenüber privaten Seenotrettern auf der zentralen Mittelmeerroute häufiger erhoben als jener, sie seien ein «Pull-Faktor». Dass NGO-Schiffe wie die Sea-Watch oder die Open Arms vor der libyschen Küste Migranten aus Gummibooten retten und nach Italien bringen, so die Anschuldigung, verleite Flüchtlinge erst recht zum Aufbruch und trage deshalb dazu bei, die Zahl der Überfahrten zu steigern – und dadurch auch die Zahl der Ertrunkenen.

      Das Argument hat eine unbestreitbare intuitive Plausibilität: Je sicherer jemand sein kann, aus einer riskanten Situation befreit zu werden, desto grösser dürfte seine Bereitschaft sein, das Risiko einzugehen. 2017 schrieb die europäische Küstenwache Frontex, Rettungsaktionen von NGOs trügen dazu bei, dass Schlepperbanden «ihr Ziel mit minimalem Aufwand erreichen», was das «Business-Modell» der Kriminellen stärke.

      Zwei englische Studien aus dem Jahr 2017 kamen indessen zum Schluss, dass es keinen Zusammenhang zwischen der Präsenz von Rettungsschiffen vor der libyschen Küste und der Zahl der Überfahrten gebe. Beide Untersuchungen beruhten jedoch auf geringem Datenmaterial.

      Das Wetter spielt eine Rolle, Rettungsschiffe nicht

      Eine neue Studie gelangt nun zum selben Ergebnis: Der Pull-Faktor ist, um einen Modeausdruck zu verwenden, Fake News. Die italienischen Migrationsforscher Eugenio Cusumano und Matteo Villa haben für das in Fiesole beheimatete Europäische Hochschulinstitut sämtliche verfügbaren internationalen und italienischen Daten zwischen Oktober 2014 und Oktober 2019 auf einen Pull-Effekt untersucht, mit negativem Resultat.

      Laut der italienischen Zeitung «Repubblica» gab es bisher keine so umfassende und systematische Auswertung. Besonders genau untersuchten die Forscher den Zeitraum vom 1. Januar bis zum 27. Oktober 2019. Sie überprüften Tag für Tag, ob private Rettungsschiffe vor den libyschen Küsten unterwegs waren und wie viele Flüchtlingsboote jeweils die Überfahrt versuchten. Auch hier wieder: Keine Korrelation zwischen NGO-Schiffen und angestrebten Überfahrten. Kein Pull-Faktor. Stark sei hingegen die Korrelation mit dem Wetter.

      Obwohl die Autoren weitere Untersuchungen anmahnen, fordern sie, die Seenotretter nicht mehr zu behindern.

      Die Denkschablone vom «Gutmenschen»

      Das dürfte sich als Illusion erweisen, passt doch die Pull-Faktor-These in eine der beliebtesten rechten Denkschablonen: jene vom «Gutmenschentum». Gutmenschen sind demnach Moralisten, die in ihrer Naivität das Gute wollen, nämlich, im Falle der Seenotretter, Menschen vor dem Ertrinken zu bewahren. Die aber das Schlechte bewirken, weil ihretwegen die Zahl der Toten steige. Das Argument lässt sich scheinbar auf das Wertesystem der Kritisierten ein, um sie genau dadurch an ihrer empfindlichsten Stelle zu treffen. Es verkehrt das angeblich Gute in sein Gegenteil, und je intensiver die Gutmenschen nach dieser Logik ihre Ziele verfolgen, desto verheerender das Resultat.

      Um die Anschuldigung zu verschärfen, braucht man bloss den Anteil des angeblich «Gutgemeinten» zu verringern und jenen der kriminellen Energie zu erhöhen. Diese verleite Seenotretter im Namen einer höheren Moral dazu, das Gesetz zu brechen, indem sie etwa widerrechtlich in einen Hafen einlaufen. Oder – eine weitere Verschärfung des Vorwurfs – indem sie direkt mit den Schlepperbanden zusammenarbeiten, womöglich sogar aus finanziellen Interessen.

      Keine Komplizenschaft mit Schleppern

      Trotz intensiver Ermittlungen ist es der italienischen Staatsanwaltschaft bisher nicht gelungen, Beweise für die angebliche Komplizenschaft zwischen NGOs und libyschen Schlepperbanden zu finden. Und noch nie hat die italienische Justiz Seenotretter verurteilt. Stattdessen ist sie – etwa im Fall der Cap Anamur vor zehn Jahren oder diesen Sommer bei der deutschen Kapitänin Carola Rackete – zu Freisprüchen gelangt, aufgrund des internationalen Seerechts, der Genfer Flüchtlingskonventionen sowie verfassungsrechtlicher Bestimmungen. Oder sie hat die Verfahren eingestellt.

      Zwar gibt es noch laufende Prozesse. Schon jetzt aber lässt sich sagen, dass es verlogen ist, wenn NGO-Kritiker auf Recht und Gesetz pochen, um dann unter krasser Missachtung der Unschuldsvermutung und bisheriger Gerichtsurteile sowie aufgrund herbeifantasierter Pull-Effekte irgendwelche haltlosen Anschuldigungen in die Welt zu setzen.


    • New Research Demonstrates that Search and Rescue is Not a Pull Factor

      New research published by the European University Institute suggests that Search and Rescue (SAR) activities in the Mediterranean, especially those carried out by NGOs, are not incentivizing departures of boats from Libyan shores.

      Combining data from UNHCR, IOM and the Italian Coast Guard, the report finds that there is no significant relationship between NGO’s SAR activity and the departures from the Libyan coast between 2014 and 2018. A closer analysis on presence of NGO ships in the first ten months of 2019, where NGOs remained the only actor conducting SAR, similarly concludes that there is no evidence to suggest that departures increased when NGO ships were at sea during the period considered. Instead, the research finds that the agreement between Italy and the Libyan militias from July 2017, weather conditions and violent conflict in Libya in April 2019 had an impact on departures from Libya.

      The research contributes to the critical analysis of the ‘pull factor’ argument used by European governments as a justification to curb SAR efforts. As defined by the authors, the pull factor hypothesis holds that, all else equal, the higher the likelihood that migrants will be rescued at sea and disembarked in Europe, the higher will be the number of attempted crossings.

      The authors call on the need for more data and further research on this issue. They recommend reconsidering government policies disincentivising SAR operations and restoring EU-led missions combining SAR and border enforcement, like Mare Nostrum. They call for effective, lawful and ethically defensible migration governance across the Central Mediterranean.


    • Lunedì scorso abbiamo pubblicato un paper (https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/65024/PB_2019_22_MPC.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y) che dimostra che la presenza delle navi Ong non spinge i migranti a partire di più dalla Libia.

      Poi sono arrivate tre Ong, e sono partiti in centinaia.

      «Pull factor»? No.

      Un thread.

      Una cosa vera: negli ultimi giorni dalla Libia sono partiti in tanti, tantissimi.

      Era dal 2 novembre che non si registrava alcuna partenza dalle coste libiche.

      Poi, tra il 19 e il 23 novembre, sono partite quasi 1.200 persone.

      Come vi ho già raccontato, la ripresa delle partenze era nuovamente collegata a un miglioramento delle condizioni atmosferiche.

      Però la presenza delle Ong permette di mettere alla prova il nostro modello.

      Cosa che ho fatto.

      Cosa ho scoperto?

      Primo: le condizioni atmosferiche restano fondamentali.

      Come potete vedere dalle curve qui sotto, conta più il vento della temperatura.

      Messe insieme, le due variabili sono ancora più forti: con tanto vento e temperature in discesa, non parte nessuno.

      Secondo: le Ong continuano a non essere «pull factor».

      L’effetto della presenza in mare delle Ong resta non significativo.

      Inoltre, il risultato non si discosta per nulla dai risultati ottenuti con i dati del nostro paper, che si fermavano a fine ottobre.

      Terzo: ma quindi con il governo Conte II riprendono le partenze?

      Pare di no.

      A parità di altri fattori, meteo incluso, le partenze dalla Libia dopo il cambio di governo sono (a oggi) statisticamente indistinguibili dal periodo del Conte I.


      Quando qualcuno vi mostra una piccola fetta di realtà (alte partenze di migranti con Ong in mare), sta oscurando tutto ciò che succede quando non guardate.

      Per questo i dati e i modelli sono così importanti: rimettono in riga il nostro sguardo strabico.


    • Policy Brief (EUI) | Les secours en mer des ONG constituent-ils un facteur attractif pour les migrations irrégulières ?

      L’argument selon lequel les ONG qui pratiquent les sauvetages en mer Méditerranée constitueraient un facteur attractif pour les migrations irrégulières fait partie depuis 2015 d’une rhétorique communément admise. Elle a servi à délégitimer les missions de secours en mer au large de la Libye qui soi-disant encourageraient les passeurs à organiser des départs. Pour cet article, les auteurs ont étudié les flux migratoires entre la Libye et l’Italie entre 2014 et octobre 2019. Aucun lien de cause a effet n’a pu être identifié entre les départs de la côte libyenne et la présence de navires de sauvetage des ONG. Bien que d’autres recherches doivent être encore menées, cette étude remet en question le fait que la présence de bateau de sauvetage puisse constituer un facteur attractif.

      La recherche menée par Eugenio Cusumano (Migration Policy Center, EUI) et Matteo Villa (Instituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale, ISPI) intitulée ” Sea Rescue NGOs : a Pull Factor of Irregular Migration” a été publiée en anglais en novembre 2019. Elle est entièrement disponible sur le site de l’institut European University Institute (EUI) ou en cliquant sur l’image ci-dessus.

      Le journal Libération du 18 novembre 2019 lui a consacré un article ” ONG en Méditerannée : les secours en mer ne créent pas d’”appel d’air”” rédigé par Kim Hulot-Guiot.

      Nous proposons ci-dessous un bref résumé des principales conclusions des deux chercheurs :

      En 2013, en réponse aux nombreuses disparitions lors des traversées de la mer Méditerranée, l’Union européenne avait mis en place l’opération Mare Nostrum habilitant ainsi des garde-côtes à sauver des personnes migrantes dans la zone internationale au large des côtes libyennes. Une année plus tard cette opération fut suspendue par crainte que cela ait contribué à augmenter le nombre de tentatives de traversée de la Méditerranée centrale. Les missions suivante Triton, Themis ou Eunafovor n’ont presque plus effectué de sauvetage en mer. Ce manque a été comblé par des navires d’ONG qui ont assisté plus de 115’000 migrants entre 2014 et octobre 2019.

      Ce tableau issu de l’article montre l’évolution du nombre enregistré de personnes disparues en Méditerranée (centrale, est et ouest) entre 2014-2019 :

      En 2017, l’Italie a développé une nouvelle approche de cette question. Elle a conclu un accord avec les garde-côtes libyens pour qu’ils réduisent le nombre de départ depuis leurs côtes. De plus, l’Italie a progressivement fermé ses ports aux navires de sauvetage des ONG et entrepris la confiscation progressive de navires qui auraient enfreint ses interdictions. Ce procédé a eu comme conséquence de faire diminuer le nombre de navire de sauvetage d’ONG en mer Méditerranée. Le nouveau gouvernement italien n’a pas infléchi les règles et la rencontre européenne de Valletta en septembre 2019 suggérait encore entre les lignes que la présence des navires de sauvetage des ONG pourrait être responsable des départs continus de personnes migrantes depuis la Libye.

      En réalité, peu de recherches empiriques détaillent ce lien. Cette étude est une volonté d’y pallier. Elle utilise des indices statistiques qui permettent de mettre en corrélation les départs non-contrôlés des côtes libyennes et les activités de sauvetage au large de ces côtes par les ONG. Elle conclue à un manque de lien significatif entre ces deux facteurs :

      En 2015, le nombre total de départ depuis la Libye a légèrement baissé en comparaison à 2014 bien que les nombre de personnes sauvées par des ONG ait augmenté de 0.8 à 13% du nombre total de personnes sauvées dans cette zone ; après juillet 2017, le nombre de migrants quittant la Libye a diminué même si les ONG sont devenues les plus importantes actrices des sauvetages en mer. Cela suggère que l’accord passé entre les milices libyennes et l’Italie conclut en juillet 2017 a un impact beaucoup plus grand pour réduire les départs que les activités menées par les bateaux des ONG.

      Vu le manque de données disponibles, de telles recherches devraient continuer d’être entreprises. Néanmoins les premiers résultats significatifs servent à éclairer le débat politique. En ce sens, les auteurs suggèrent des recommandations :

      Le fait que la présence des ONG constitue un facteur attractif pour le départ des migrants à partir des côtes libyennes pour se rendre en Italie est ici infirmé. Par conséquent, les restrictions législatives portées aux opérations de sauvetage en mer par ces ONG a conduit à une augmentation des morts lors de ces traversées sans réduire significativement les départs. Ces décisions devraient donc être reconsidérées.
      Le retrait de cette zone des forces armées européennes en secours aux migrants a été décidé sur des présupposés hasardeux. S’il est clair que les ONG ne constituent par un attrait aux départs irréguliers des côtes libyennes, les navires militaires européens ne le constitueraient pas non plus, mais pourraient bien au contraire sauver des vies et détecter des arrivées non détectées. Il serait donc important de redéployer ces forces en Méditerranée.
      Les mesures visant à empêcher les migrations dans les pays de transit ou de départ ont un impact beaucoup plus grand sur les processus migratoires que la présence des navires de sauvetages en mer des ONG. Néanmoins, ce processus d’externalisation de la gestion des migrations est très problématique vu les conditions de vie et détention dont souffrent les personnes migrantes en Libye. Il faudrait donc réussir à combattre le trafique d’être humains sur la terre tout en réduisant les facteurs attractifs d’immigration et en améliorant les conditions de vie et les possibilités de protection en Libye.


    • Ammiraglio #Giuseppe_De_Giorgi:

      “Il dato più interessante, sottolinea De Giorgi, è che con la chiusura di Mare Nostrum gli sbarchi non sono affatto diminuiti, anzi sono aumentati. E di molto. Basta un dato a smontare le accuse mosse dai teorici dell’equazione ‘più soccorsi uguale più sbarchi’. Nel novembre del 2013, in piena Mare Nostrum, erano arrivati in Italia 1883 migranti. Nel novembre dell’anno successivo, cioè subito dopo la conclusione dell’operazione, sono stati registrati 9134 arrivi, con un aumento netto del 485 per cento.
      ‘Di questi,’ continua l’ammiraglio, ‘3810 migranti sono stati soccorsi dalla Marina e sottoposti a controllo sanitario prima dello sbarco. I restanti 5324 sono arrivati direttamente sul territorio nazionale senza controllo sanitario. Di questi ultimi, infatti, 1534 sono stati intercettati e soccorsi dalla Capitaneria di porto e 2273 da mercantili commerciali non attrezzati per quel tipo di attività, ma obbligati dal diritto del mare a intervenire.’
      Insomma, gli sbarchi continuano, ma in maniera più caotica e disordinata. La frontiera è di nuovo arretrata: da acquatica è tornata a essere terrestre e a coincidere con le coste italiane.”

      (Alessandro Leogrande, La frontiera, 2017 : pp. 186-187)

  • #Agromafie e #caporalato: 430 mila lavoratori a rischio sfruttamento

    L’Osservatorio Placido Rizzotto della Flai Cgil fotografa la situazione nel suo quarto rapporto «Agromafie e caporalato». Un fenomeno che si estende dal Sud al Nord Italia. Tra giornate lavorative di 12 ore e pagate una manciata di euro

    #mafia #agriculture #exploitation #travail #Italie #agromafia

    Pour télécharger le #rapport (c’est la troisième édition):

    –-> La principale attività dell’Osservatorio è la redazione del rapporto Agromafie e Caporalato, un rapporto biennale sull’infiltrazione delle mafie nella filiera agroalimentare e sulle condizioni di lavoro nel settore. Dopo la prima (2012) e la seconda (2014) edizione, a Maggio del 2016 è stato presentato il terzo rapporto Agromafie e Caporalato, ormai un lavoro di inchiesta e ricerca diventati in pochi anni un riferimento per chiunque voglia approfondire il tema delle Agromafie e delle condizioni di lavoro in agricoltura.

    • ‘Agromafia’ Exploits Hundreds of Thousands of Agricultural Workers in Italy

      In Italy, over 400,000 agricultural labourers risk being illegally employed by mafia-like organisations, and more than 132,000 work in extremely vulnerable conditions, enduring high occupational suffering, warns the fourth report on Agromafie and Caporalato.

      The report, released this July by the Italian trade union for farmers, Flai Cgil, and the research institute Osservatorio Placido Rizzotto, sheds light on a bitter reality that is defined by the report itself as “modern day slavery”. The criminal industry is estimated to generate almost five billion euros.

      “The phenomenon of ‘Caporalato’ is a cancer for the entire community,” Roberto Iovino from Osservatorio Placido Rizzotto, told IPS. “Legal and illegal activities often intertwine in the agro-food sector and it ultimately becomes very difficult to know who is operating in the law and who is not.”

      The criminal structure is called Caporalato or Agromafia when it touches a number of aspects of the agri-food chain. It is administered by ‘Caporali’, who decide on working hours and salaries of workers. The phenomenon is widespread across Italy. From Sicilian tomatoes, to the green salads from the province of Brescia, to the grape harvest used for producing the ‘Franciacorta’ sparkling wine in Lombardia, to the strawberries harvested in the region of Basilicata—many of these crops would have been harvested by illegally-employed workers, according to the report.

      Miserable salaries and excessive working hours

      The average wages of the exploited, warns the report, range between 20 and 30 euros per day, at an hourly rate of between three to four euros. Many reportedly work between eight to 14 hours per day, seven days a week. The majority of the collected testimonies show that many workers are paid less than their actual time worked and their salaries are 50 percent lower than the one outlined by the national contract for farmers.

      In some areas like Puglia or Campania in southern Italy, most salaries are paid on a piecework basis or per task.

      Some workers reported to Flai-Cgil that they were paid only one euro per hour and that they had to pay 1.5 euros for a small bottle of water, five euros for the transportation to reach the field and three euros for a sandwich at lunchtime each day. Day labourers are also required to pay between 100 to 200 euros for rent, often in abandoned, crumbling facilities or in remote and less-frequented hotels.

      The money was paid to the ‘Caporale’ or supervisor.

      According to the report, a ‘Caporale’ earns between 10 to 15 euros a day per labourer under their management, with each managing between 3,000 to 4,000 agricultural workers. It is estimated that their average monthly profit fluctuates between tens to hundreds of thousands of euros per month, depending on their position in the pyramid structure of the illegal business. It is alleged in the report that no tax is paid on the profits and this costs the state in lost income and also impacts on companies operating within the law.

      “Those people [‘Caporali’] are not naive at all,” one of the workers told the trade union’s researchers. “They know the laws, they find ways of counterfeiting work contracts and mechanisms to [circumvent] the National Social Security Institute.” The institute is the largest social security and welfare institute in Italy.

      “They have a certain criminal profile,” the worker explained.

      Migrant victims

      The ‘Caporali’ are not just Italians but Romanians, Bulgarians, Moroccans and Pakistanis, who manage their own criminal and recruiting organisations. The report warns that recruitment not only takes place in Italy but also in the home countries of migrants like Morocco or Pakistan.

      In 2017, out of one million labourers, 286,940 were migrants. It is also estimated that there are an additional 220,000 foreigners who are not registered.

      African migrants also reportedly receive a lower remuneration than that paid to workers of other nationalities.

      These victims of Agromafia live in a continuous state of vulnerability, unable to claim their rights. The report points out that some workers have had their documents confiscated by ‘Caporali’ for the ultimate purpose of trapping the labourers. It also highlights the testimonies of abuse, ranging from physical violence, rape and intimidation. One Afghan migrant who asked to be paid after months without receiving any pay, said that he had been beaten up because of his protests.

      The report also estimates that 5,000 Romanian women live in segregation in the Sicilian countryside, often with only their children. Because of their isolation many suffer sexual violence from farmers.

      Luana told Flai-Cgil of her abuse. “He offered to accompany my children to school, which was very far to reach on foot,” she said. “If I did not consent to this requests, he threatened not to accompany them any more and even to deny us drinking water.”

      “We have to put humanity first, and then profit”

      Many of the victims hesitate to report their exploiters because they are fearful of losing their jobs. A Ghanaian boy working in Tuscany told Flai-Cgil that Italians have explained to him how to lay a complaint, but he holds back because he still has to send money to his family.

      During the report release Susanna Camusso, secretary general of the country’s largest trade union, CGIL, said: “We must rebuild the culture of respect for people, including migrants. These are people who bend their backs to collect the food we eat and who move our economy.

      “We must help these people to overcome fear, explaining to them that there is not only the monetary aspect to work. A person could be exploited even if he holds a decent salary. We have to put humanity first, and then profit .”


    • Is Italian Agriculture a “Pull Factor” for Irregular Migration—and, If So, Why?

      In discussions on irregular migration in Europe, undeclared work is generally viewed as a “pull factor”—positive aspects of a destination-country that attract an individual or group to leave their home—for both employers as well as prospective migrants, and especially in sectors such as agriculture. A closer examination of the agricultural model, however, reveals that structural forces are driving demand for work and incentivizing exploitation. This is particularly evident in Southern Italy, a region famous for its produce, where both civil society organizations and the media have documented exploitation of migrant workers. A closer examination of EU and member states efforts to avoid exploitation is needed.

      In Is Italian Agriculture a ‘Pull Factor’ for Irregular Migration—and, If So, Why?, a new study, authors from the Open Society Foundations’ European Policy Institute and the European University Institute look at how Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy, the practices of supermarket chains, organized crime, and gang-master recruitment practices contribute to migrant exploitation. The study further recommends a closer examination of EU member state efforts to counter exploitation and offers an overview of private sector practice’s intended to combat exploitation—such as the provision of information on workers’ rights, adequate housing and transport, and EU-wide labeling schemes, among others.

      #rapport #pull-factor #facteur_pull

    • #Reggio_Calabria, pagavano i braccianti meno di un euro a ora per lavorare dall’alba al tramonto: cinque arresti

      Con l’accusa di intermediazione illecita e sfruttamento del lavoro, estorsione e istigazione alla corruzione, i carabinieri hanno arrestato cinque persone a Sant’Eufemia d’Aspromonte, in provincia di Reggio Calabria.


  • Asylum seekers in Britain: putting the economic ‘pull factor’ in context

    Economic pull factors have been a particular focus of attention, as the assumption that many asylum seekers are not real refugees but are instead economic migrants has become mainstream. This idea is underpinned by the assumption that asylum seekers are rational economic actors who are able to execute their migration plans relatively straightforwardly unless national governments step in with policy interventions to both physically stop them moving, but also importantly to disincentivise migration. As the numbers of asylum applications from non-Europeans increased at the end of the twentieth century, these sorts of assumptions around asylum seekers not being ‘genuine’ or as deserving as those in the past, have become ever more popular.

    #réfugiés #asile #migrations #pull_factor #facteur_pull #attractivité #UK #Angleterre

  • Private ships play big role in Europe’s migrant crisis

    Two years ago, a small, privately-run ship set out to lend a hand to military operations in the Mediterranean rescuing migrants on boats near capsizing off Libya.

    #privatisation #asile #migrations #secours #naufrages #mer #Méditerranée #mourir_en_mer #réfugiés #sauvetages #MOAS #SOS_Méditerranée #ONG #sauvetage