#liban-sud

Sur le même sujet voir le thread spéculatif de Nicholas Noe
▻https://twitter.com/NoeNicholas/status/1833058740183969903

Several deeply rooted analysts who’ve long believed another open war between Hezbollah & Israel was unlikely have (privately) come around to the stance that war is indeed likely,tho there’s disagreement about when: roughly short term (coming months) or long term (coming years).1/
This emerging consensus seems based at a minimum on a shared belief that: 1) doctrinally, ideologically & historically, no Israeli leadership can “allow” a bordering enemy force to persist that durably & significantly restricts its ability to wage wide & decisive war...2/
...as it sees fit. 2)Nor can it long stand a massive buffer zone to persist on Israeli territory.3)After Oct. 7, returning to the status quo ante along the N. Border is-additionally-politically & militarily unavailable. Hezbollah has reached all three milestones after decades..3/
...of steadily degrading, with its allies & esp. senior partner Iran, Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge. It is also very unlikely under any realistic arrangement to verifiably withdraw from the border areas (emphasis on the impossibility of verifying such a withdrawal - 4/
...which would very likely be demanded-in the unlikely event such a concession was even proffered). Adding fuel to the fire is another dynamic that seemed likely by the end of Oct. or so of last year: some Israeli leaders are trying to get Netanyahu et al. on board with a Gaza 5/
....ceasefire by publicly messaging that it’s the best way to control the timeline & prep for the necessary & inevitable open war against Hezbollah. It is worth quoting the story in full: "A senior Israeli security official told Israel’s Channel 12 on Sunday that “the campaign 6/
in Lebanon is getting closer, although the exact timing has not yet been determined.” According to the security source, Israel faces two scenarios: “reaching a deal (with Hamas over a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange) or collapsing the negotiations and quickly entering a 7/
direct war against Hezbollah. According to the senior official, the first scenario is “reaching a deal, a situation in which Israel will be able to choose its preferred timing for future action against Hezbollah targets.” “Within this scenario, there is hope that Hezbollah 8/
will refrain from firing during this period, which will allow the IDF to complete its preparations in an optimal way and plan the next moves carefully. “The clear advantage of this scenario is the possibility of operating under more favorable conditions for Israel.” 9/
“The 2nd scenario is the collapse of the negotiations. In such a situation, it’s expected that Hezbollah will continue firing at the northern settlements,which may force Israel to enter into action more quickly, under less favorable conditions for it." 10/

Senior Israeli official: Campaign in Lebanon is approaching
A senior Israeli security official told Israel’s Channel 12 on Sunday that “the campaign in Lebanon is getting closer, although the exact timing has not yet been determined.” According to the securi…
▻https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/307881-senior-israeli-official-campaign-in-lebanon-is-approaching
By this logic-evident in the months after Oct 7-the definitive collapse of a Gaza ceasefire leads to open war w/Hezb just not in an “optimal” fashion for Israel;if a ceasefire is achieved tho,this merely allows for better prep/timing for IDF to launch the same war in short term.

▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1833058740183969903.html

Israel sells its story on a new Lebanon war, and the ’Times’ bites
▻http://www.972mag.com/israel-sells-its-story-on-a-new-lebanon-war-and-the-times-bites/106694

Le genre d’(#excellent) article que l’#OLJ n’écrira jamais hélas....

In an article published on the New York Times website today, Israel sells the author, Isabel Kershner, the pretense for its next war: its claims that Hezbollah has dramatically beefed up its military infrastructure along Israel’s northern border.

Those claims on their own don’t come as much of a surprise. It’s been widely acknowledged that Hezbollah has increased its capabilities in southern Lebanon. Nor is the overt battle cry the most ominous part of the piece. What’s most concerning is Israel’s warning that since Hezbollah has embedded its facilities within southern Lebanese villages, all bets are off when it comes to their residents. They are now human shields, Israel says . “At the end of the day, it means that many, many Lebanese will be killed,” the piece quotes Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser, as saying.

That’s one of a number of warnings in the piece, which are quite chilling when taken in context. Israel killed more than 1,000 Lebanese during the 2006 Second Lebanese War. Its relentless air strikes destroyed extensive civilian infrastructure. Human Rights Watch later found that the strikes were indiscriminate, targeting civilian areas long after Hezbollah had left them . (Forty-four Israel civilians were killed in that war, along with 119 soldiers.) There’s little reason to believe the next round will be less bloody, and plenty of reason to believe it will be deeply familiar, or worse:

[...]

But beyond reminding readers of what we have to look forward to, it’s hard to understand why this piece was published . Its problems are manifold. It’s a government-packaged story with a bit of added background. It fails to recognize the irony of officials in their central Tel Aviv military headquarters lambasting Hezbollah for embedding among civilians. It doesn’t do much to substantiate the story it’s echoing. “The Israeli claims could not be independently verified,” Kershner (or her editor) writes.

If Israel is paving the way for another war, shouldn’t its claims be thoroughly, painstakingly investigated before they’re used as a pretense to kill hundreds or thousands of people?

It’s possible that Kershner indeed believes, as she indicates, that the story she was peddled could prevent the next war. But it’s as hard to imagine Hezbollah retreating from southern Lebanon as it is to believe it will proactively seek to add an Israeli front to its Syrian morass. It’s much easier to imagine a simmering buildup of tensions, a mounting of cross-border incidents, and, heaven help us, another bloodbath. Followed by a ceasefire. Repeat. Just like Gaza. Kershner doesn’t address or even allude to the wisdom of another military campaign – one that is, again, sure to end up empowering the Lebanese group, and one that all signs indicate it doesn’t want.

It certainly seems that Israel learned the wrong lesson from the most recent Gaza war. Instead of reexamining its rules of engagement, which turn civilians into fair game, it has chosen the tack of trying to preempt criticism of future carnage . “We told you this would happen,” they’ll be able to say.

With Israel’s war drums only getting steadier, that’s not so surprising. But is it the job of a New York Times journalist to give them her platform?