medicalcondition:sars

Corrupted Blood incident
▻https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrupted_Blood_incident#cite_ref-c.26vg_9-3

The Corrupted Blood incident was a video game glitch and virtual plague in the MMORPG World of Warcraft, which began on September 13, 2005, and lasted for one week. The epidemic began with the introduction of the new raid Zul’Gurub and its end boss Hakkar The Soulflayer. When confronted and attacked, Hakkar would cast a hit point-draining and highly-contagious debuff spell called Corrupted Blood on players.

In March 2007, Ran D Balicer, an epidemiologist physician at the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Bersheva, Israel, published an article in the journal Epidemiology that described the similarities between this outbreak and the recent SARS and avian influenza outbreaks. Dr Balicer suggested that role-playing games could serve as an advanced platform for modeling the dissemination of infectious diseases. In a follow-up article in the journal Science, the game Second Life was suggested as another possible platform for these studies. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention contacted Blizzard Entertainment and requested statistics on this event for research on epidemics but was told that it was a glitch.

The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena - Dirk Brockmann and Dirk Helbing
▻http://rocs.hu-berlin.de

we show that complex spatio-temporal patterns can be reduced to surprisingly simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns, if conventional geographic distance is replaced by a probabilistically motivated effective distance.

In the context of global, air-traffic – mediated epidemics, we show that effective distance reliably predicts disease arrival times. Even if epidemiological parameters are unknown, the method can still deliver
relative arrival times. The approach can also identify the spatial origin of spreading processes and successfully be applied to data of the worldwide 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and 2003 SARS epidemic.

▻http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/resources/Brockmann_Helbing2013.pdf

avec une #visualisation interactive en #d3.js de la notion de #distance_effective, où l’on passe de :

https://dl.dropbox.com/s/17jsk5cwm1x1fh7/brockmann%201.png?dl=0

https://dl.dropbox.com/s/pitob280f4hcnm9/brockmann%202.png?dl=0

Sur le premier graphique, une #épidémie c’est des points qui clignotent ; sur le second graphique, elle apparaît sous la forme d’une onde de propagation qui s’élargit à partir du centre.

On peut aussi se poser la question, à partir d’une série temporelle, de savoir quel est son centre, et la vitesse de l’onde, et ainsi prédire où elle sera dans combien de temps.

Ou faire des scénarios pour estimer l’impact de la coupure d’une liaison aérienne. Par exemple pour #ebola :
▻http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/D3/ebola

https://dl.dropbox.com/s/bnl71pmqavackow/brockmann%20ebola.png?dl=0

#contagion #réseaux #recherche #santé #cartographie

grippe #chiroptère, #NCoV , ça faisait longtemps qu’on n’en avait pas entendu parler.
Saudi Arabia reports 7 cases of SARS-like virus
▻http://www.newsday.com/news/world/saudi-arabia-reports-7-cases-of-sars-like-virus-1.5186071

Saudi Arabia’s Health Ministry said Thursday that five people have died and two other patients were in critical condition with confirmed cases of a new respiratory virus related to SARS.
The ministry said in a statement that it had informed the World Health Organization of the seven new cases of novel coronavirus.
(…)
Since September 2012, WHO has been informed of 24 confirmed cases. Sixteen of the patients died.

First UK victim of Sars-like virus dies at a hospital in Birmingham | Mail Online
▻http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2280676/First-UK-victim-Sars-like-virus-dies-hospital-Birmingham.html

A man infected with a Sars-like illness has become the first person in Britain to die from the virus.

The 39-year-old, who died in the intensive care unit at Birmingham’s Queen Elizabeth Hospital, caught the illness from his father, who had become infected while travelling in Pakistan and the Middle East.

So far there have only been four confirmed cases of the illness in Britain and 12 anywhere in the world, with six deaths.

The illness, known as novel #coronavirus, causes a cough, breathing difficulties and fever which can lead to pneumonia and kidney failure.

It is from the same virus family as Sars, which claimed 900 lives worldwide in 2002 and 2003.

But scientists say novel coronavirus is nowhere near as dangerous as it has difficulty spreading between humans.

The man who died on Sunday was suffering from a long-term condition which made him more susceptible.

Le nouveau coronavirus (#NCoV , grippe #chiroptère) provoque le premier décès au Royaume-Uni. Le patient était porteur d’une pathologie de longue durée qui avait fragilisé son système immunitaire.

Par ailleurs, les premières études sur ce nouveau coronavirus (identifié en septembre 2012) commencent à sortir ▻http://afludiary.blogspot.fr/2013/02/mbio-ncov-affinity-for-replication-in.html (synthèse, avec lien vers l’étude originale dans le billet). Le papier détaille la voie d’infection (voie aérienne) et indique des moyens de traitement possibles (interféron).

New coronavirus features compared with SARS - Health - CBC News
►http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2012/12/10/respiratory-virus-coronavirus-sars-compare.html

They concluded that the new virus does not seem to rely on the same receptor as SARS.

It’s possible that the new virus could use a receptor that is easier to access, which could make it more infectious. No one knows what receptor it does use.

Like #SARS, the new virus is most closely related to coronaviruses from bats. But unlike SARS, the new virus can still infect cells from many species of bats.

“This was a big surprise,” Drosten said in a release. “It’s completely unusual for any coronavirus to be able to do that — to go back to its original reservoir.”

Encore et toujours les Canadiens !…

Une étude de chercheurs allemands et néerlandais, avec la laboratoire de virologie de Djeddah, qui explique qu’on ne sait pas grand chose du nouveau coronavirus (hCoV-EMC, de son nom officiel, la grippe #chiroptère, pour moi). Si ce n’est que les symptômes sont similaires à ceux de la #grippe_aviaire (SARS-CoV), qu’en revanche, le site récepteur qu’il exploite n’est pas le même et surtout qu’il est toujours pathogène chez plusieurs espèces de chauves-souris.

New #coronavirus caused infections in Jordan in April, retrospective tests show | Calgary Herald
►http://www.calgaryherald.com/health/confirms+more+fatal+cases+virus+Jordan+possible+virus+spread/7634150/story.html
(encore et toujours les Canadiens en pointe sur ce sujet)

The agency says retrospective testing of stored samples show two people who died in Jordan in April were infected with the virus, which is from the same virus family as SARS.

Ce qui porte à 9 le nombre de cas confirmés de grippe #chiroptère.

Nouveauté, l’un des deux décès jordaniens concerne un professionnel de santé.

The Jordanian cases may signal spread from patients to health-care workers happened there. But it’s too soon to conclude that, said WHO spokesperson Gregory Hartl, who noted the health-care workers and the patients could have been infected for a common — and as yet unidentified — source.

Les choses sont encore assez floues pour cet épisode d’avril, puisque l’article du Calgary Herald se termine par cette phrase (sans lien logique avec ce qui précède) :

A report on the outbreak — noted in a weekly disease report from the European Centre for Disease Control in May — said seven nurses and a doctor were among 11 cases identified in the outbreak at a hospital in Zarqa, Jordan.

Mais dans cet article du Jordan Times du 21/04/12 , cité hier 30/11/12 sur un blog spécialisé, 9 cas seulement sont mentionnés : 7 infirmières dont une décédée, 1 médecin et le frère de l’infirmière décédée.
►http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2012/11/jordan-april-reports-on-the-novel-coronavirus.html

L’information nouvelle est donc la confirmation du nouveau coronavirus pour deux des prélèvements faits sur des patients d’avril mais testés en octobre. Ils avaient déjà été testés – négativement – en avril par le même laboratoire, NAMRU-3 (US Naval Medical Research Unit au Caire), mais le coronavirus n’avait pas encore été identifié.

Information détaillée, là : CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy de l’Université du Minnesota.
►http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/other/sars/news/nov3012corona.html