organization:international monetary fund

Murtaza Hussain sur Twitter : “To destroy the Islamic State we should consider convincing it to take an exorbitant IMF loan then forcing crushing austerity polices on it.”
▻https://twitter.com/MazMHussain/status/528256414733860865

BBC News - Russia-Ukraine gas deal secures EU winter supply
▻http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29842505

Ben, finalement, pour résoudre la crise du gaz ukrainienne, il a suffi que l’Europe ouvre grand son portefeuille…

Russia has agreed to resume gas supplies to Ukraine over the winter in a deal brokered by the European Union.

The deal will also ensure gas supplies to EU countries via Ukraine are secure.

"There is now no reason for people in Europe to stay cold this winter,’’ said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

European Union energy chief Guenther Oettinger said he was confident that Ukraine would be able to afford to pay for the gas it needed.

He added that the agreement might be the “first glimmer” of hope in easing tensions between Russian and Ukraine.

“This is an important step for our shared energy security in the European continent,” Mr Barroso said.

The deal follows months of talks between EU officials and the Russian and Ukrainian energy ministers.

The terms include the EU acting as guarantor for Ukraine’s gas purchases from Russia and helping to meet outstanding debts.

The total package is worth $4.6bn (£2.87bn), with money coming from the International Monetary Fund as well as the EU. The total includes funds from existing accords with the EU and IMF.

“Unprecedented levels of EU aid will be disbursed in a timely manner, and the International Monetary Fund has reassured Ukraine that it can use all financial means at its disposal to pay for gas,” the EC said in a statement.

“Further work with the international financial institutions on financial assistance to Ukraine, also in relation to gas supplies, will still continue. But all three sides are reassured that Ukraine will have the necessary financial means.”

Donc l’info, c’est : l’Union européenne se porte garante des achats ukrainiens de gaz russe. Étant donné l’état de santé des finances ukrainiennes, c’est sur un vrai triomphe que Barroso et Œttinger concluent le dernier jour de leurs mandats…

#tout_ça_pour_ça !

The economic roots of the drive to war - World Socialist Web Site

▻http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/10/10/pers-o10.html

The deepening crisis of the global capitalist system, as evidenced in reports issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank this week that saw no prospect for increased economic growth, is the driving force of increased tensions among the major capitalist powers and the rise of militarism.

One of the most significant economic manifestations of the capitalist breakdown is the continued lack of investment in the real economy, highlighted in both the IMF and World Bank reports, and the increasing dependence of the world economy on credit bubbles, which is creating the conditions for another financial crisis.

#crise_économique #Mondialisation #capitalisme #impérialisme

Saudi Arabia’s pending deficit
▻http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/october/dictators-in-debt.htm#sthash.yjdB7mFp.G6O7JECY.dpbs

Dictators in debt

By Erin Kilbride, via muftah.org

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) could be heading for financial turmoil, potentially posting a deficit in 2015. For the Al Saud monarchy, which depends on its massive cash reserves to quell dissent against the regime, recent warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not to be taken lightly.

Reuters reported that a recent IMF report “painted the most ominous picture yet of looming financial pressures on the Kingdom.” According to the IMF, the country could post a deficit as early as 2015, nearly three years earlier than previous estimates. Following years of warnings to cut down on massive state spending, the IMF expected Saudi Arabia to undertake financial consolidations in 2013, but these never materialised. To the contrary, continued domestic dissent and increased military involvement in regional affairs demanded an increase in government spending, and a global rise in oil prices facilitated this. If spending continues at this rate, Saudi Arabia needs an oil price of $89 a barrel to balance its budget, up $13 a barrel from what it required in 2012. Unfortunately for the Al Saud family, oil prices seem to have reached their peak, and are moving in the opposition direction from what an oil-backed monarch would hope.

Saudi Arabia has a history of purchasing stability, (often defined as temporarily quelling dissent) both domestically and abroad. For years, Al Saud has been able to sustain its cash-for-loyalty contract with citizens because oil prices were high and the country was running a surplus. Indeed, citizens of KSA are the only in the world to be called after their leaders: “Saudis.” But even the wealthiest of monarchs should know that “stability” built on social handouts is only as sustainable as the nation’s budget. And Saudi’s massive cash reserves are in jeopardy.

Running a dictatorship is a pricey endeavor. It comes as no surprise then that since 2010, annual spending has risen 52 percent, reaching $265.5 billion in 2013. Among the many costs associated with maintaining a dictatorship, Saudi expenses include subsidised housing and loan disbursements (set to reach SR 25 billion a year in 2014), security deployments to hotbeds of dissent (namely the Shia-dominated Eastern Province), and military aid to allied monarchs across the Gulf (cue iconic image of Saudi tanks rolling across the bridge to crush Bahrain’s peaceful pro-democracy uprising). Not surprisingly, these costs seem to rise sharply during periods of regional and domestic unrest.

In March 2011, at the height of revolutionary tensions across the Middle East – perhaps most notably in neighboring, “brotherly” Bahrain – Saudi King Abdulla returned from a medical hiatus abroad and bequeathed over $100 billion worth of financial handouts to his citizens. The move reaffirmed the existing social contract in Saudi Arabia, where the government trades state handouts for limitless citizen loyalty to the Al Saud monarchy. In 2011, in an attempt to appease citizens calling for a ‘day of rage’ (and in addition to the thousands of troops deployed to quell dissent by force), Saudi Arabia pledged $66.7 billion for new housing developments, a raise in the minimum wage, additional welfare benefits for the unemployed, higher stipends for students, and a 15% salary raise for public sector employees.

If Saudi Arabia posts a deficit in 2014, as the IMF has projected it will, the government’s options are limited. Al Saud seems to have ruled out meaningful political reform, (as reflected by the imprisonment of activists, torture in prisons, a beheading record that rivals ISIS, and the systematic targeting of human rights defenders). As a result, cutting back on government handouts seems less than likely. Scaling down its massive infrastructure projects would also be detrimental, as these projects not only increase the quality of life for citizens, but also are one of the only ways the Kingdom is preparing for a post-oil economy. Where then, is a modern monarchy to find more cash?

The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency is currently using the country’s surplus to buy United States treasury bills – which means the US government can plan to owe Saudi money in the future. If and when they post a deficit, the Saudis will likely begin to pull from these foreign assets to uphold the massive domestic spending that keeps dissent at bay.

But, the fact that the riyal remains pegged to the dollar pushes against the sale of treasury bills. KSA needs to retain a certain amount of US assets to keep its exchange rate constant. Saudi is not ready to have a floating currency, given the uncertainty about what the riyal is worth. Because Saudi Arabia’s economy is based on oil, it can only forecast a budget based on the price of oil, which is sold in dollars. Ultimately, this puts a cap (albeit a high cap) on Saudi’s third option for freeing up cash – selling some of its foreign investments.

While Saudi Arabia has a host of options for dealing with its current financial pressures, each of them seems plagued with a catch-22. Cut domestic spending? Tricky if you plan to continue crushing dissent. Scale back massive infrastructure projects? Not if you hope to survive the post-oil apocalypse. Sell off foreign assets? Sure, but even this cannot go on indefinitely.

The sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s policy of crushing dissent with cash (among other less pleasant tactics) has long been debated by political economists and human rights activists alike. But the IMF’s most recent projections point to a need for policy change – not in 2018, but today. Political reform is the only sustainable way forward for Saudi Arabia.
  
Posted on Saturday, 04 October 2014

Dictators in debt : Saudi Arabia’s pending deficit
▻http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2014/october/dictators-in-debt.htm#sthash.yjdB7mFp.REYuoja9.dpbs

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) could be heading for financial turmoil, potentially posting a deficit in 2015. For the Al Saud monarchy, which depends on its massive cash reserves to quell dissent against the regime, recent warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not to be taken lightly.

IMF points to dangers of stagnation and financial turbulence - World Socialist Web Site

▻http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/09/19/imfr-s19.html

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IMF points to dangers of stagnation and financial turbulence
By Nick Beams
19 September 2014

The International Monetary Fund has added its voice to those of other major economic organisations warning of lower world economic growth and the dangers of another financial crisis, possibly sparked by a flood of capital out of emerging markets once interest rates in the US start to rise.

In a note prepared for finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Cairns this weekend prior to the G20 summit in November, the IMF said global growth was weaker than its forecast last April. It cited a “surprisingly soft first quarter in the United States,” in which the American economy experienced a contraction, weak performance in Latin America, contraction in the second quarter in Japan and “downward surprises” in Europe where “activity stagnated in the second quarter.”

#économie #crise_financière #crise_économique

le Caire renoue avec le FMI après 4 ans d’interruption

Egypt to ask IMF for first ‘Article IV’ consultations in 3 years

Reuters
▻http://english.alarabiya.net/en Saturday, 13 September 2014

Egypt will ask the IMF for a long-delayed economic assessment in the hope of improving the country’s image before a February investment conference, the finance ministry said in a statement.
The government said it wants the results published before the Egypt Economic Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, a conference to boost investment in an economy battered by years of political turmoil and a lack of investor confidence.
“ We hope that the (IMF) report comes in favour of Egypt and contributes to the return of foreign flows, either directly as investments in the real economy or indirectly by improving the stock market,” the finance ministry statement said.

Egypt has not held Article IV consultations, where IMF experts assess a country’s financial and economic state of affairs, since March 2010, according to the IMF.
The consultations scheduled for a year later were postponed after President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in February 2011.
Mubarak’s ouster and the political turmoil that followed it triggered a sharp decline in foreign investment and tourism revenues, hammering the country’s economy.
The unemployment rate is 13.4 %, up from 9 % in 2010, and 60 % of youth are unemployed, the government said last week.

Officials forecast economic growth at just 3.2 % in the fiscal year that began July 1, well below levels needed to create enough jobs for a rapidly growing population and ease widespread poverty.
A successful investment conference might help the government push through reforms needed to reach agreement on a loan package with the International Monetary Fund.
An IMF deal could then improve confidence among investors, who have been unnerved both by years of turmoil and by a host of other problems, ranging from costly energy subsidies to lack of transparency in economic management.
Gulf states, which have been planning the conference since April, have taken a keen interest in seeing Egypt, the largest Arab state, get back on its feet.
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have provided more than $12 billion in cash and petroleum products to prop up Egypt’s economy since the ouster of Islamist President Mohammad Mursi last year.
They see Egypt as the front line in the battle against the Muslim Brotherhood, and want to see the current government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi succeed after he toppled Mursi.
The Brotherhood’s populist platform helped it triumph in post-Mubarak elections, but its political Islam puts the group directly at odds with the Gulf monarchies’ dynastic rule.
Gulf countries also want to ensure aid and investment are spent efficiently in a country where past leaders with military backgrounds have often mismanaged the economy.

Plan d’urgence en Ukraine voté le 31/07

Faced with war, parliament approves emergency laws to raise $1 billion
▻http://www.kyivpost.com/content/business/faced-with-war-parliament-approves-emergency-laws-to-raise-1-billion-35888

Parliament on July 31 passed emergency measures to allocate nearly an additional $1 billion for the war effort in eastern Ukraine and to repair damaged infrastructure. Two bills passed behind closed doors that amended the budget law and tax code to enable the fiscal outlays.

Their passage also pave the way for receiving a second installment worth $1.4 billion from the International Monetary Fund as part of a two-year, $17 billion bailout package.

Specifically $791 million will go toward military operations, and $166 million for restoring infrastructure in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. As a result, the government’s annual budget deficit is expected to remain unchanged at $5.75 billion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product. Revenue and spending, however, increased slightly to $31.5 billion and $37 billion, respectively.

Le financement

Natural gas
In particular, a 55 percent tax was levied on private natural gas extractors, and 45 percent on private oil producers. They primarily hike rental rates for mineral resource usage. (…) According to the expert, for a natural gas importing country the rate of rent for gas production should not be higher than European Union rates, where they hover around 20-30 percent.
(…)
Oil
Oil producers saw their tax rates increase by only six percent to 45. (An earlier version of the bill had proposed 60 percent of the value of oil).
(…)
Metals and mining
Metallurgists were also hit. In early August they will have to pay an 8 percent iron ore extraction tax, up from 5 percent. (…) “In Kazakhstan the estimated rent payment rate is at 2.8 percent, twice lower than in Ukraine now,” he [Volodymyr Tkachenko, the head of Ukraine’s largest steel company in ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih] said. “About 85 percent of Ukrainian steel products are exported. Having such rent rates and gas prices, we find it difficult to compete in foreign markets. If we lose them, the country will be left without foreign exchange earnings from exports.”
(…)
War tax [on salaries]
A temporary “war tax” of 1.5 percent is to be levied on salaries and is scheduled to expire by year’s end. The tax will affect everyone, including all those in the public sector and all officially employed workers in the private sector.

Agriculture
Farmers saw much of the planned provisions not make it into the final vote, except for the reintroduction of a value-added tax on grain exports that will come into force on Jan. 1, 2015.

Yatsenyuk accuses parliament of ’sabotaging’ Ukraine’s IMF, World Bank programs ; seeks to impose ’war tax’
▻http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/yatsenyuk-accuses-parlaiment-of-sabotaging-ukraines-imf-world-bank-program

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who resigned as prime minister last week over parliament’s failure to pass legislation required to gain multi-bilion dollar International Monetary Fund and World Bank loans, called on lawmakers to pass emergency funding during a July 31 special session. 

“I address the whole parliament independent of their color and ambitions for the next elections,” Yatsenyuk said. “I call you to come on Thursday and vote.”

Ukraine’s parliament needs to approve emergency funding to finance Ukraine’s military offensive against Russian-led separatists in the east and also needs to adopt legislation designed to make Ukraine less energy-dependent on Russia.

He also talked about the need to impose a special war tax of 1.5 percent from salaries until the end of the year to finance the military. “The money will go directly to finance the army,” he said.

Yatsenyuk also offered to cancel oil and gas taxes if the industries will use the saved money to invest in new exploration.

Donc, au menu de la session extraordinaire (à tous les sens du terme) du 31 juillet de l’Assemblée promise à une dissolution prochaine :
• taxe exceptionnelle sur les salaires de 1,5% (jusqu’à la fin de l’année seulement…)
• exonération des industries pétrolières et gazières (si l’argent économisé est consacré à l’investissement…)
sinon, pas de prêts du FMI et de la Banque Mondiale…

On est prié de voter dans l’enthousiasme.

Walking on the West Side: the World Bank and the IMF in the Ukraine Conflict | oaklandinstitute.org
▻http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/walking-west-side-world-bank-and-imf-ukraine-conflict

International financing has played a significant—although not always reported—role in the current conflict in Ukraine. In late 2013, conflict between pro-European Union (EU) and pro-Russian Ukrainians escalated to violent levels, leading to the departure of President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 and prompting the greatest East-West confrontation since the Cold War.

A major factor in the crisis that led to deadly protests and eventually President Yanukovych’s removal from office was his rejection of an EU Association agreement that would have further opened trade and integrated Ukraine with the EU. The agreement was tied to a $17 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Instead of the EU and IMF deal, Yanukovych choose a Russian aid package worth $15 billion plus a 33% discount on Russian natural gas. This deal has since gone off the table with the pro-EU interim government accepting the new multimillion dollar IMF package in May 2014.

Les grands pays émergents se dotent d’un outil financier à côté de la Banque mondiale et du FMI

BRICS for a new bank - The Hindu
▻http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/brics-for-a-new-bank/article6221912.ece?homepage=true

What might have been dismissed as an impossibility just five years ago is now a reality. Defying sceptics and critics, five countries that between them account for 40 per cent of the world’s population and 20 per cent of its GDP have signed an agreement to create a development bank to provide financial assistance to developing countries and emerging market economies, mainly for infrastructure projects. As its name implies, the agreement for the New Development Bank, signed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa at their sixth BRICS summit in Brazil, signals the start of a new global financial order that aims to be more inclusive than the Western-focussed International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The $100 billion bank will have an initial subscribed capital of $50 billion. The five members managed to iron out their differences to agree on an equal share for each in the bank, so no one member dominates the institution. India and South Africa both wanted to host the headquarters. The eventual decision to locate it in Shanghai was an acknowledgement that China’s is the biggest economy in the grouping. The Bank will also have an African Regional Centre in South Africa and India will assume the first presidency of the bank. First mooted at the fourth BRICS summit in New Delhi in 2012, the Bank will certainly have an impact on the existing arrangements put in place by the Bretton Woods institutions, and will give more say to smaller countries. But BRICS also appears to recognise that the NDB cannot replace the IMF, the World Bank or the regional development banks. Thus, the Fortaleza Declaration describes the NDB as a “supplement to the efforts of multilateral and regional financial institutions for global development.”

A second financial instrument, the Contingency Reserve Arrangement of $100 billion, has been set up to help developing economies tide over “short-term liquidity pressures, promote further BRICS cooperation, strengthen the global financial safety net and complement existing international arrangements.” In its sixth year, BRICS has a new confidence, and it was more than apparent at the summit. The only world grouping that is not region, security or trade-based, its members have come together with the determination to create a more multilateral global order. China and Russia have backed the other three BRICS members on the issue of UN reform and Security Council expansion. But the grouping needs to find a stronger political voice. The Declaration came in the midst of the bombardment, even if under grave provocation, of Gaza by Israel, but it is silent on this while calling for Israel and Palestine to resume negotiations towards a two-state solution.

Expropriation Is Back - Is Christine Lagarde The Most Dangerous Woman In The World ? | Zero Hedge
▻http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-03/expropriation-back-christine-lagarde-most-dangerous-woman-world

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Lagarde-Christine.jpg?resize=584%2C329

I have gone on record that the most dangerous organization is the now French led IMF with Christine Lagarde at the helm, which has presented a concept report that debt cuts for over-indebted states are uncompromising and are to be performed more effectively in the future by defaulting on retirement accounts held in life insurance, mutual funds and other types of pension schemes, or arbitrarily extending debt perpetually so you cannot redeem. Yes you read correctly, The new IMF paper is described in great detail exactly how to now allow the private sector, which has invested in government bonds, to be expropriated to pay for the national debts of the socialist governments.

I have been warning that there is an idea that has been running around behind the curtain that the national debt of the USA could be settled by usurping all pension funds in the country. Here is a remarkable blueprint that throws all previous considerations concerning the purchase of government bonds over the cliff. The IMF working paper from December 2013 states boldly:

“The distinction between external debt and domestic debt can be quite important. Domestic debt issued in domestic currency typically offers a far wider range of partial default options than does foreign currency–denominated external debt. Financial repression has already been mentioned; governments can stuff debt into local pension funds and insurance companies, forcing them through regulation to accept far lower rates of return than they might otherwise demand.”

id/Page 8 (IMF-Sovereign-Debt-Crisis)

Already in October 2013, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), suggested the Euro Crisis should be handled by raising taxes. The IMF lobbied for a property tax in Europe that should be imposed where there are no such taxes. The IMF has advocated for a general “debt tax” in the amount of 10 percent for each household in the Eurozone, which also has only modest savings.

People are blind. They think this is authorization to go get the rich. They are going after everyone for the “rich” are tiny players in the game. People do not want to hear that. They want to think the rich can pay the bills for everyone else. That is not practical and even Julius Caesar recognized that they may be a small group, but they are the engine of the economy that creates jobs. It would have been popular for him to wipe out all the rich who he was against. But in the end, he had to solve the debt crisis by simply retroactively attribute all interest to capital in order to solve the debt crisis that led to the first civil war.

There is no discussion whatsoever of reforming the system. They are merely planning to default on savers expropriating their savings, but continue to borrow forever. Nobody is even bothering to look at the structure that simply cannot work.

The money people have saved the IMF maintains should be used for debt service by sheer force. To reduce the enormous national debt, they maintain that government has the right to directly usurp the savings of citizens. Whether saving money, securities or real estate, about ten percent could be expropriated. This is the IMF view.

Because the government debt of the euro countries has increased a total of well over 90 percent of gross domestic product, they suggest that the people should sacrifice their savings for the benefit of the state. Socialism is no longer to help the poor against the rich, but to help the government against the people. The definition has changed.

In January 2014, the Bundesbank joined the IMF project focusing on a “wealth tax”. In its monthly report they had announced: “In the exceptional situation of an imminent state bankruptcy a one-time capital levy could but cheaper cut than the then still relevant options” if higher taxes or drastic limitations of government spending did not meet or could not be implemented.

In the latest June 2014 working paper of the IMF, they have set forth yet another scheme – extending maturity. So you bought a 2 year note? Well, the IMF possible solution would be to simply extend the maturity. Your 2 year note now become 20 year bond. They do not default, you just can never redeem.

Possible remedy. The preliminary ideas in this paper would introduce greater flexibility into the 2002 framework by providing the Fund with a broader range of potential policy responses in the context of sovereign debt distress, while addressing the concerns that motivated the 2002 framework. Specifically, in circumstances where a member has lost market access and debt is considered sustainable, but not with high probability, the Fund would be able to provide exceptional access on the basis of a debt operation that involves an extension of maturities (normally without any reduction of principal or interest). Such a “reprofiling” operation, coupled with the implementation of a credible adjustment program, would be designed to improve the prospect of securing sustainability and regaining market access, without having to meet the criterion of restoring debt sustainability with high probability...........

>>>

I have gone on record that the most dangerous organization is the now French led IMF with Christine Lagarde at the helm, which has presented a concept report that debt cuts for over-indebted states are uncompromising and are to be performed more effectively in the future by defaulting on retirement accounts held in life insurance, mutual funds and other types of pension schemes, or arbitrarily extending debt perpetually so you cannot redeem

<<<

#IMF
#Expropriation Is Back
#Christine_Lagarde

Ce site (russe) décrit une situation économique apocalyptique en Ukraine…

Olga SHEDROVA - Kiev Is Starting a War to Avoid a Revolution - Strategic Culture Foundation - on-line journal > Kiev Is Starting a War to Avoid a Revolution > Strategic-Culture.org - Strategic Culture Foundation
▻http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/06/27/kiev-is-starting-a-war-to-avoid-a-revolution.html

While the Kiev junta is waging war against its own people in the Southeast, throughout the country protests are growing due to a catastrophic drop in the standard of living of the populace. An increase in all utility rates is coming July 1. In particular, gas prices for the population of Ukraine will go up by 55-70%; hot water and heating by 40%; electricity by 10-40%, depending on consumption volumes; and centralized water supply and sewage by 78-96%. The greatest increase is expected in Kiev, where on July 1 the price of hot water for Kievans will increase by almost 70% and the price of centralized heating will increase by almost 60%. And this is only the first stage of price increases for utilities, which will continue to grow incrementally until 2017. According to First Deputy Head of the Budget Committee of the Verkhovna Rada Oksana Kaletnik, in 2015 utility rates will increase by 40%, and in 2016 and 2017 by another 20% per year. The veracity of these figures is dubious, since as of May 1, 2014, for example, the public was paying only 24% of the actual costs for production, transmission and delivery of electricity.

At the same time, the IMF is demanding a rise in rates for the public «to an economically justified level», that is, total elimination of the system of state subsidies in the utilities field.

(…)

At the same time, as Ukrainian Prime Minister A. Yatsenyuk has stated, the government will freeze the amount of the minimum wage and the poverty line. According to the conclusions of the authoritative Razumkov Centre, «the freezing of pay raises, pensions and social benefits is connected with the fact that the economy in Ukraine is not working. A decline can be observed, both in industry and in other areas... In such a situation neither Ukrainian businesses nor the state budget have the resources to raise wages in order to support the population. This year real income and real wages are decreasing, which is creating an additional social problem in the country». Furthermore, the government is stubbornly spreading rumors that workers in the public sector and public servants will lose all bonuses. And although that bill has for now been removed from the parliament’s agenda, in some regions public sector employees have already lost the bonuses they are entitled to by law. For example, instructors and librarians in Nova Kakhovka (Kherson region) lost a 50% salary uplift, and teachers in Berdyansk (Zaporozhye region) only avoided a pay cut by threatening to strike. Since March 1, 2014 bonuses for continuous service and exemplary execution of duties, amounting to around 40% of salary, were discontinued for public sector employees.

La journaliste annonce aussi des manifestations de mères et femmes de soldats.

Furthermore, massive casualties among the Ukrainian military and horrible service conditions have already sparked mass protests in the western regions of Ukraine, which are most loyal to the Kiev junta. The mothers and wives of Ukrainian soldiers are blocking international highways in the Rovno, Ternopol, Lvov and Khmelnitsky regions. It is highly likely that the furious women will march on Kiev if their loved ones do not return from the army soon.

Il faut dire le discours officiel du FMI sur le sujet, qui présente les « ajustements » à réaliser comme des pas dans la bonne direction, est à peine moins inquiétant…

IMF Survey : Ukraine Unveils Reform Program with IMF Support
▻http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2014/new043014a.htm

Ukraine Unveils Reform Program with IMF Support
(…)
In an interview, Reza Moghadam, Director of the IMF’s European Department, emphasizes the needs for Ukraine to address deep-seated structural problems and vulnerabilities.
(…)

IMF Survey: What are the chief measures to reduce the fiscal deficit?
Moghadam: The authorities have proposed that the initial phase of fiscal adjustment rely on a mix of expenditure and revenue measures, with emphasis on the former.
• Expenditure restraint will be exercised through the suspension of unaffordable wage and pension increases planned by the previous government, public employment reduction through attrition, savings on government purchases enabled by a new procurement law, and rationalization of social assistance spending through better targeting and means testing.
• Enhanced revenues and collections will be sourced from the elimination of fraudulent tax evasion schemes, a shift to uniform (and thus less abuse-prone) excises on fuel, higher excises on alcohol and tobacco, and closing of value-added tax loopholes.

Ah oui, rationaliser l’aide sociale !

IMF Survey: How significantly will gas and heating tariffs increase?
Moghadam: Energy prices in Ukraine are exceptionally low. Currently, the gas price for households in Ukraine is $85 for one thousand cubic meter. In Russia—a gas producing and exporting economy—the price is $158 for one thousand cubic meter. The regional differences are even larger with prices in Ukraine being 4 to 9 times lower than in neighboring gas-importing economies. In January 2014, Romania’s citizens paid about $ 414, Moldova’s $ 432, and Poland’s $ 687 for one thousand cubic meter.
The envisaged gas and heating tariff increases will lead to comparatively moderate increases in the share of household budgets spent on utilities. Even after the programmed increases in 2014, the price of gas and heating for the population will remain several times lower than in other gas-importing European countries.

On va rattraper les prix exceptionnellement bas de l’énergie, mais ça sera « sans douleur »…

Et voici comment on va s’y prendre…

IMF Survey: How will the most vulnerable be protected under the program?
Moghadam: Although energy price increases are moderate and from a low starting level, it is important to cushion the impact on low-income families, so the government has embarked on an ambitious new social protection program. Eligible families will receive a benefit equal to the difference between pre-and post-increase gas and heating bills. In total, 4.5 million families—about 27 percent of the total—will be receiving government support to shield them from tariff increases through existing and new social assistance schemes.
Additionally, in cooperation with the World Bank, social assistance benefits will be re-prioritized to move to a well-targeted means-tested framework. As present, the majority of social assistance is captured by higher-income households who consume the largest share of gas and heat. For a fraction of the cost of the existing utility subsidies, the government could fund additional social assistance programs that would substantially reduce poverty.

Comme ce sont les classes moyennes qui bénéficient le plus des subventions à l’énergie, y a qu’à leur sucrer les aides et les réserver aux plus pauvres (qui eux ne se chauffent pas comme des porcs…)

Bon évidemment, c’est pas gagné. D’ailleurs les deux programmes précédents d’aide du FMI à l’Ukraine ont été interrompus devant l’incapacité des autorités à prendre les mesures de diminution des subventions.
Mais c’était avant…

IMF Survey: How confident are you of the authorities’ commitment to the reforms? How much ownership does it have? Do they have sufficient implementation capacity?
Moghadam: The authorities see the program as a historical break with a past marked by crony capitalism, pervasive corruption, and poor governance which weighed heavily on the economy. They believe that there is a window of opportunity for bold and ambitious reforms in order to transform Ukraine into a dynamic and competitive emerging market economy with a transparent government and a vibrant business environment.
Clearly there are considerable uncertainties and risks—both from outside (e.g., geopolitical tensions) and within. We have worked together with the authorities to build in measures to help mitigate these risks.
We are encouraged that the authorities have taken strong ownership of economic reforms, which are long overdue and urgently needed. Up front action on major elements of the program is a good sign in terms of their capacity for successful implementation. Ultimately, the program’s success hinges on the authorities’ unwavering commitment to economic transformation despite resistance from entrenched vested interests.

Bref, on va bien finir par y arriver

The program (…) is expected to unlock additional and sizable international official assistance, and help restore confidence among private investors.

IMF calls on #Israel to lift economic restrictions on #Palestine
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/imf-calls-israel-lift-economic-restrictions-palestine

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday said the economy in the West Bank and Gaza is weakening and urged Israel to lift restrictions on the Palestinians. After briefing the international donor community and the Palestinian Authority, IMF mission chief Christoph Duenwald said in a statement that the authority is “doing a commendable job” managing the economy in difficult circumstances. He said the global donor community needed to step up to help fill a “sizable” financing gap this year for the authority. read more

#INF

Money to burn: OPEC’s wasteful energy subsidies: Kemp | Reuters
▻http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/16/opec-fuel-subsidies-idUSL6N0O231C20140516

Fossil fuel subsidies cost governments in emerging markets more than $500 billion every year and are a major contributor to climate change, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The biggest subsidies are concentrated in the Middle East, North Africa, Asia and parts of Latin America, according to the IEA’s Fossil Fuel Subsidy Database (www.iea.org/subsidy/index.html).

#energy #pétrole

For sale : Heavily subsidized, unprofitable state-owned Ukrainian coal mines
▻http://www.kyivpost.com/content/business/ukrainian-mines-on-sale-350079.html

Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers on May 29 ordered the State Property Fund to prepare an auction of 38 state-owned coal mines as part of a cost-saving measure in line with International Monetary Fund requirements. Most of these mines are loss-making and, moreover, enjoy direct subsidies from the central government to stay afloat.

Last year, the mines were propped up with nearly $1.8 billion of financial aid to ensure salaries get paid. Former President Viktor Yanukovych, a native of the coal-mining Donbas region, paid special attention to the needs of miners, many of whom were his electorate.

However, the current government’s austerity measure plans to cut subsidies to the coal mines by $230 million, coupled with privatization plans are part of this policy, said First Deputy Energy Minister Yuriy Zyukov on May 29.

En résumé, le seul intérêt, c’est que c’est pas cher (on s’attend à un prix moyen de l’ordre de 1 hryvnia , environ 10 centimes d’euro, par mine).

Le reste de l’article énumère pourquoi, c’est vraiment le moment d’acheter :
• le gouvernement va diminuer ses subventions
• il a été extrait au total (et officiellement) 86 millions de tonnes de charbon, dont 61 pour la consommation intérieure, 6 pour l’exportation et le reste, 19 millions de tonnes tout de même, venu s’entasser dans les parcs à charbon…
• ce surplus est de piètre qualité,
• le gouvernement vient d’annuler les projets d’investissement dans la gazéification du charbon
• cerise sur le gâteau, les mines sont toutes situées dans le Donbass…

A new #FILM about #DSK’s naked belly; #Nafissatou_Diallo as minor prop
▻http://africasacountry.com/a-new-film-about-dsks-naked-belly-nafissatou-diallo-as-minor-prop

Three years ago, New York was gripped by the legal battle between then-IMF chief #Dominique_Strauss-Kahn and the woman who accused him of rape—she turned out to be the maid, who had come in to clean his room at the exclusive Sofitel Hotel. Africa is a Country wrote a ton of analysis on the case […]

#POLITICS #Abel_Ferrara #Gerard_Depardieu #Welcome_to_New_York

Alarm Over Istanbul’s Building Boom
▻http://reclaimistanbul.com/2014/05/22/alarm-over-istanbuls-building-boom-nytimes

“

We are invading Istanbul again,” the real estate agent said enthusiastically as she ticked off the selling points of Turkey’s most ambitious development extravaganza to date: Maslak 1453.

According to research by Mustafa Sonmez, author of numerous books on the Turkish economy, Mr. Erdogan has favored the construction and real estate sectors at the expense of important export sectors.

“It’s a shame,” said Mr. Sonmez, who calculates that construction spending is now about 9 percent of the overall economy, a level that the International Monetary Fund has found to be associated with problems in other countries. “We have used all this free money to build houses and feed the domestic market.”

To date, the local market had been remarkably resilient, overcoming a global rise in interest rates caused by last year’s “taper tantrum” surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin cutting back on stimulus, and the anti-government, anti-development street protests at Taksim Square here in Istanbul.

But in the first three months of the year, unit sales for new apartments were down about 60 percent compared to the same period last year, according to Emlak Konut, the country’s largest real estate investment company.

Moreover, Mr. Eren said, the inventory of unsold housing units has risen to 1.5 million, compared to levels close to zero several years ago, a clear sign that the slowing economy and higher interest rates are cutting into demand.

The potential for a real estate crash highlights the role of the relatively obscure Housing Development Administration, commonly known as Toki, in fueling the boom.

Traditionally a bureaucratic backwater with a mandate to push for more affordable homes, Toki emerged as a housing power center when its bylaws were changed in January 2004 to bring it under the direct control of Mr. Erdogan less than a year after he was elected. Under his sponsorship, Toki amassed choice properties at little or no cost, auctioned them off to developers and took a cut of the profits.

According to Mr. Sonmez, Toki has been particularly aggressive in backing high-end projects undertaken by developers with ties to Mr. Erdogan. They include Ali Agaoglu, the billionaire businessman behind Maslak 1453, who late last year was one of a number of business executives, bankers and politicians questioned by the police as part of a broad corruption investigation. Also questioned were two Toki board members.

❞

http://reclaimistanbul.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/bas-princen-city-edge-instabul-2009-10-x-15-rgb-98.jpg?w=470&h=375

#Istanbul
#Bulle_immobilière
#TOKI

Beware of aid agencies bearing gifts
▻http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/beware-of-aid-agencies-bearing-gifts-1.1322393

In a documentary, filmmaker John Pilger made the case that the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are “The New Rulers of the World” on behalf of their largest donor countries — the US, the UK, Germany, France and Japan. But some less powerful nations are alleging that one agency — the US Agency for International Development (#USAID) — is acting as a front for the #CIA.

Fossil Fuel Subsidies Cost some $2 Trillion Annually, According To IMF
▻http://www.juancole.com/2014/05/subsidies-trillion-according.html

#subventions #hydrocarbures

Between Fascists and Neoliberals, #Ukraine Seeks Stable Leadership
▻http://www.lobelog.com/between-fascists-and-neoliberals-ukraine-seeks-stable-leadership

While it’s too soon to speculate what Poroshenko’s economic policy would be, his past as a close Yushchenko ally hints at his neoliberal sympathies. The current interim government is dominated by figures from Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna Party, including Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a favorite of Victoria Nuland, the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, who has ties to prominent neoconservatives. Nuland favors the kind of shock capitalism that is practiced by the IMF and that guided the economic policy of the Kuchma and Yushchenko administrations. Yatsenyuk has referred to the cabinet he heads as a “kamikaze” government because of the “extremely unpopular” financial policies it plans to implement, and has promised to follow IMF-dictated austerity measures. Considering the impact of these policies on Greece, it’s remarkable that Yatsenyuk has embraced them so whole-heartedly and unquestioningly.

Ukraine faces immense challenges. The threat of pro-Russian separatism in the east is the most immediate concern, closely followed by the related risk of hostile Russian action, be it military in nature, economic (e.g., shutting off natural gas exports), or both. But the economic crisis that brought down Yushchenko and helped to bring down Yanukovych has not been abated, and it will be impossible to stabilize potential breakaway regions if the Ukrainian economy continues to struggle. Ukraine desperately needs competent, stable governance right now, but based on its recent political history and on the choices it now faces between destructive ultra-nationalism and failed neoliberalism, there’s little reason for optimism on this front.

IMF report: No end to economic breakdown - World Socialist Web Site

▻http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/04/08/pers-a08.html

Almost six years after the eruption of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has effectively ruled out any return to the economic growth rates that preceded September 2008.

Two major chapters of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, published for the spring meetings to be held in Washington at the end of this week, provide a gloomy assessment of the state of the world economy. In the advanced economies, investment is falling as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP), while in the “emerging markets,” there is no prospect for growth rates to return to pre-2007 levels.

#économie #globalisation #crise_financière

The US-Russia Ukrainian deal
By Pepe Escobar
▻http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-03-040414.html

Compound the vicious catfight among dodgy factions in Kiev, from fascists to Saint Yulia “Kill all the Russians” #Timoschenko; #Gazprom raising the price of natural gas by 80%; and the International Monetary Fund about to unleash some nasty structural adjustment that will make Greece look like Cinderella playing in a rose garden, and all that Moscow needs to do is sit back, relax and watch the (internal) carnage.

(...)

So #Ukraine is essentially a detail - and “#Europe” is no more than a helpless . Who are you gonna call in “Europe”? That Magritte-style nonentity European Council President Herman Van Rompuy? Anyone who’s been to Brussels knows that “Europe” remains a glorified collection of principalities bickering in a smatter of languages. Machiavelli would easily recognize it as such.

#Etats-Unis #Russie

Ukraine’s IMF Deal Means Greece-Like Depression | Common Dreams
▻http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/03/28

#Ukraine: not only a matter of geopolitics
▻http://download.thelancet.com/flatcontentassets/pdfs/S0140673614604256.pdf

The country’s low life expectancy (...) reflects political failure

(...)

The new government in Kyiv faces many challenges, not least that it is running out of money and requires substantial funds from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, and others to avoid imminent economic collapse.21 Yet these organisations will demand conditions with any financial support they provide and, having been stringent in their imposition of austerity on countries facing economic problems within the European Union, they might be tempted to prescribe the same medicine for Ukraine. There was a failure to assess the health impact of such policies in Greece.22 If the same miscalculation is made in a country with as many health challenges as Ukraine, the consequences could be many times worse. This time there will be no excuse.