Raqqa/Deïr az-Zor : avec les préparatifs pour la bataille de Mossoul la course à la prise du contrôle du territoire syrien sous contrôle de Da’ich entre des alliances concurrentes se met en place doucement, mais sûrement.
Selon Elijah Magnier, le régime et ses alliés ne lanceront pas la bataille sur Raqqa tant que la bataille de Mossoul ne sera pas lancée par les Américains et leurs alliés. D’abord parce que ce serait s’exposer à des déplacements de troupes de Da’ich d’Irak vers la Syrie, et ensuite parce que le principal danger reste al-Nousra qui dispose de soutiens extérieurs. En attendant cette bataille de Mossoul, ils se concentrent donc sur al-Nousra dans la province d’Idlib et essaient de se positionner pour reprendre 3 villes à Da’ich : Qaryatayn, Palmyre et Tabaqa
▻https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/03/01/the-raqqa-offensive-needs-mosul-first-and-the-iraqi-popular-mobi
The Raqqa offensive needs Mosul first and The Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force to Syria
The Syrian “axis of resistance”, formed of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Lebanese “Hezbollah” Special Forces, Iraqi of the PMF, Pakistani and Afghan militias, all operating in Syria and backed by Russia, are preparing new military plans to advance on two main axes in the north of Syria: The first, in the northwest in Jisr al-Shughur, Idlib and rural areas of Aleppo to counter al-Qaeda in the Levant – Jahbat al Nusra and its allies. The second, is the attack against ISIS on three fronts: Qariyateyen, Palmyra, and Tabqa, without going too close to Raqqa. Both al-Qaeda and its Jihadist allies on one hand, and ISIS on the other, are not included in any cease-fire or deal related to a possible peace process or Cease-fire in Syria. While Russia and its allies prepare for their war in Syria, the U.S.A is gathering Iraqi forces and many American advisors around Mosul for the Iraqi J-Day.
La reprise de Qaryatayn et Palmyre (Tadmor), qui sont encore loin d’être faites, permettrait d’attaquer ensuite non seulement Raqqa par le sud mais aussi de briser le siège de Deïr az-Zor. Quant à Tabaqa, sa prise permettrait de couper Raqqa de toute la rive ouest du lac Assad et d’un accès à la Turquie au nord.
En tout cas, côté Irak, les préparatifs pour la bataille de Mossoul semblent se mettre en place. D’autant que le YPG a récemment progressé en prenant la ville de Shedadeh sur l’axe Hasakeh-Deïr az-Zor. Et les déclarations d’officiels américains sont assez ambigües pour laisser penser que la course vers Raqqa, au moins par l’Irak pour la coalition américaine, est lancée :
▻http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2016/02/battle-mosul-has-begun/126304
The Battle for Mosul Has Begun
“We are focused on eliminating the enemy in Raqqa every single day. We’re doing airstrikes there constantly,” McGurk said. “We know more now than we ever did before, and we’re beginning to constrict [the coalition’s] hold on Raqqa.”
Carter called Shadadi “a critical node for ISIL training and logistics, as well as for its oil enterprise. As our partners take control of Shadadi, I believe we will learn a great deal more about ISIL’s criminal networks, its criminal enterprise, and what it does to sustain them.”
McGurk said the Mosul push will be guided from a new joint operations center in Makhmur, southwest of the Kurdish capital of Irbil. The coalition also has forces in Sinjar, Hit, and al-Assad Air Base to the south, a key special operations launching point which has remained under U.S. and Iraqi control.
“Because of our strategy and our determination to accelerate our campaign, momentum is now on our side and not on ISIL’s,” Carter said.
Al-Monitor s’intéresse lui aussi au sujet :
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/syria-regime-advance-raqqa.html#ixzz41f6V3BGR
Is Syrian regime about to retake Raqqa ?
Regarding the next steps, the same leader in Athriya said, “Our operations will continue along the Athriya-Raqqa axis, and our forces will secure the road from Athriya to Khanasir. The Russian air force will protect the two forces [on the Athriya-Khanasir and Athriya-Raqqa axes] against any attacks that might risk us losing the regions we retook.” The Syrian regime managed to regain control over the town of Khanasir on Feb. 25.
Abdel Rahman Daoud, a political analyst close to the Syrian regime, told Al-Monitor, “The Syrian army will stand its ground in the Raqqa battle because regaining the province is an important step to eliminate the danger of division, and because the Russian leadership wants to block the way to any US attempt to control IS’ main stronghold amid the public field race between Russia and the United States.”
The Raqqa battle is still relatively far away if we look at it from the perspective of distances that the Syrian army would have to cross. But from an ambitious perspective, it has become imminent. IS has blocked the road the Syrian regime would need to cross to reach the north of the country. This might make the regime’s ambitions harder to fulfill.
