person:ali larijani

  • L’art du deal à la manière persane – Notes de Pepe Escobar en marge de la 6ème Conférence Internationale de Soutien à l’Intifada Palestinienne | Mounadil al Djazaïri
    https://mounadil.wordpress.com/2018/05/22/lart-du-deal-a-la-maniere-persane-notes-de-pepe-escobar-en-marge

    L’iran a accueilli la Conférence Internationale de Soutien à l’Intifada Palestinienne et est resté froid devant le retrait de l’accord sur le nucléaire.

    Par Pepe Escobar, Asia Times (Hong Kong) 18 mai 2018 traduit de l’anglais par Djazaïri

    L’art de la transaction, pratiqué depuis 2500 ans, mène au palais de la sagesse. J’avais à peine mis les pieds à Téhéran quand un diplomate a déclaré : « Trump ? Nous ne sommes pas inquiets. C’est un bazaari (un commerçant) « – sous-entendant qu’un compromis politique sera finalement atteint.

    La réponse du gouvernement iranien à l’administration Trump se ramène à une variante de Sun Tzu : le silence – surtout après la chute de Flynn [Michael Flynn, ex conseiller à la sécurité nationale de Donald Trump], qui avait « mis l’Iran en garde » après un test de missiles balistiques qui n’enfreignait pas les dispositions de l’accord nucléaire iranien, et l’idée d’un anti-Iran formé de l’Arabie Saoudite, des Emirats Arabes Uni, de l’Egypte et de la Jordanie, soit une mini-OTAN. Les manoeuvres navales iraniennes – du détroit d’Ormuz à l’océan Indien – étaient prévues depuis longtemps.

    J’étais à Téhéran en tant que membre d’un petit groupe d’analystes étrangers, invités du Majlis (Parlement) pour la 6ème Conférence internationale de soutien à l’Intifada palestinienne. Aucun risque de rencontrer des membres du cercle de Trump dans un tel rassemblement – avec des délégués parlementaires venus de plus de 50 pays, une mini-ONU de facto. Pourtant, ce qu’ils ont raté avec l’impressionnante inauguration dans une salle de conférence ronde et bondée, c’était le centre du pouvoir iranien qui s’affichait : le guide suprême, l’ayatollah Khamenei, le président de la république Hassan Rouhani et le président du parlement, Ali Larijani. (...)

  • Serving the Leviathan | Jacobin
    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/01/iran-rafsanjani-ahmadinejad-khamenei-reform

    Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the chairman of Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council, died of a heart attack on January 8, 2017. Various factions immediately tried to claim this “pillar of the revolution” in the name of their competing political objectives. The wily politician would have surely recognized this technique of marshaling the spirits of the dead to score points for short-term political gain.

    Temperate “principalists” (usulgarayan), technocratic conservatives (eʿtedaliyyun), and reformists (eslahtalaban) — that is, much of the Iranian political class — saw something in the elderly statesman’s legacy worth appropriating. In this way, his death mirrors his life: during his sixty-plus years of political activity, he became many things to many people, while his ultimate objectives often remained opaque, if not virtually impossible to discern.

    Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and others often painted this postrevolutionary pragmatist as a corrupt and arrogant patrician who had cast aside revolutionary austerity in favor of decadent opulence. The accusation resonated far beyond Ahmadinejad’s supporters, aligning with popular slogans that denounced the two-time president as “Akbar Shah” (meaning King Akbar, Great Shah) and compelling ordinary citizens to scrawl dozd (thief) on many of his campaign posters during the 2005 presidential campaign. He was also known to many as “the shark” (kuseh) on account of his inability to grow a fully fledged beard, though others felt it described his political modus operandi to a tee.

    By 2009, however, he seemed to have aligned himself with the Green Movement, drawing closer to the reformists he once opposed. His intermittent criticisms of the Ahmadinejad government endeared him to many, who began to see him as one of the few establishment voices willing to openly defy the administration and by extension, his old ally, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He became inextricably linked with the trope of “moderation,” a powerful idea in a country on the precipice, especially after the UN imposed sanctions of 2006.

    Many others remained skeptical, however, unable to forget his reputation as an arch-Machiavellian. They recycled urban legends about his family’s wealth, reinforcing his image as a power-obsessed wheeler-and-dealer.
    Resisting the Shah

    Born in 1934, Akbar Hashemi Bahremani grew up on his family’s small farm in the village of Bahreman in the Nuq district of Rafsanjan, Kerman province. At the behest of his father, he studied in a traditional maktab, but was still expected to help tend to the animals and orchards in a region renowned for its prized pistachio. His paternal uncle was a cleric who often took to the village pulpit, and at the age of fourteen, he left for Qom to study at the Shiʿi seminary, the chief center of Islamic learning in Iran.

    Through the Maraʿshi brothers (Akhavan-e Maraʿshi), Kazem and Mehdi, fellow Rafsanjanis, with whom he lived for a number of years, Akbar quickly came to know Seyyed Ruhollah Khomeini, then a relatively junior mojtahed and esteemed teacher of philosophy and mysticism. In Rafsanjani’s memoir, The Period of Struggle, he recalls how he was immediately captivated by the “majesty” of Khomeini’s visage and demeanor. Thus began an extremely close and fruitful relationship that would last the remainder of Khomeini’s lifetime. Indeed, Rafsanjani’s final resting place is alongside his political and spiritual patron.

    In Qom, Rafsanjani rapidly got involved in political life and activism and found himself attracted to the militant Devotees of Islam (Fadaʾiyan-e Islam), led by Seyyed Mojtaba Mirlowhi, better known as Navvab-e Safavi or “Prince of the Safavids,” whose meetings he would attend at every opportunity. The group tried to convince the Qom seminary to agitate for a strict and unforgiving nomocratic order, but with little success. Under the guidance of Grand Ayatollah Boroujerdi, the overwhelming majority of the Qom seminary rejected the message of the Fadaʾiyan, at one point running them out of town.

    Rafsanjani was studying in Qom during the years of anticolonial fervor after Prime Minister Mosaddeq nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (BP). He encountered Mosaddeq’s one-time clerical ally, Ayatollah Seyyed Abolqasem Kashani, who became one of the Fadaʾiyan’s initial patrons. Kashani eventually turned on Mosaddeq, and, in August 1953, a joint CIA-MI6 orchestrated coup d’état ousted the prime minister.

    After the revolution, even while expressing his support for the national movement, Rafsanjani blamed Mosaddeq’s National Front and the communist Tudeh Party for their role in weakening the seminary during this period. But he still recalled with pride how the former prime minister contributed to printing and distributing his translation of The Journey of Palestine, a translation of a popular book on Palestine written in Arabic by Akram Zwayter, a Jordanian ambassador to Tehran. Published in semi-illicit form in 1961, this book marked the beginning of a long career in which he became the most prolific statesman-cum-author of the postrevolutionary era.

    In 1955, Navvab was executed by firing squad, but vestiges of the Fadaʾiyan persisted, creating a vital network of clerical and lay activists in the country’s mosques and bazaars. Rafsanjani became an important organizer inside the country, following Khomeni’s exile in 1964. In January 1965, he was arrested by the Shah’s infamous secret police, SAVAK, for his role in the assassination of the pro-American premier, Hassan ʿAli Mansur. Later recollections by members of the Islamic Coalition Society have since admitted it was Rafsanjani who supplied the weapon. From 1958 until the revolution he was arrested on several occasions. He persisted in his activism despite the abuse and torture he suffered at the hands of the SAVAK, publishing illegal periodicals and distributing Khomeini’s communiqués from Najaf. It was also in 1958 that he married ʿEffat Maraʿshi, the daughter of a fellow cleric from Rafsanjan. His companion of almost sixty years, she would come to exude a formidable matriarchal presence on the Iranian political scene throughout the 1990s and 2000s.

    Rafsanjani also managed to travel to the United States and Japan during these years. Many regard the latter as especially formative for his worldview and proclivity toward the seemingly indigenous, albeit technologically advanced, version of modernization he would seek to exact during his own time in power. He also penned a volume on the nationalist icon Amir Kabir (who died in 1852), who tried to streamline the Qajar court’s expenditures, consolidating the weak Iranian state in Tehran while importing technical and military know-how. That Rafsanjani died on the anniversary of Amir Kabir’s murder has only fueled the flood of hagiographies.
    Internal Divisions

    On February 5, 1979, Rafsanjani made his first public appearance facing the world’s media with Khomeini during Mehdi Bazargan’s introduction as prime minister of the Provisional Revolutionary Government. He began his government apprenticeship as deputy interior minister, and soon found common ground with another junior minister, Seyyed Ali Khamenei, who held the same role in defense. More importantly, Rafsanjani also served on the revolutionary council, a secretive body dominated by clerics loyal to Khomeini that was created in lieu of a legislative branch of state.

    Rafsanjani and Khamenei were on a pilgrimage to Mecca when they learned that radical students, who called themselves the Muslim Student Followers of the Imam’s Line, had overrun the United States embassy on November 4, 1979. They had by this time become leading officials of the Islamic Republic Party (IRP), and Bazargan’s resignation thrust both men into the limelight. Rafsanjani took over the interior ministry and organized the first presidential elections of 1980. In the spring of that year, he was elected to the Majlis (parliament) and became speaker, a post he turned into a personal stronghold for most of the following decade.

    Rafsanjani remained steadfastly loyal to Khomeini and led the clerical front that ultimately marginalized competing revolutionary organizations in the early 1980s. But their relationship was not always easy. Together with Khamenei, Rafsanjani lobbied Khomeini to allow clerical candidates into the first presidential election; his mentor’s refusal paved the way for the victory of layman Abolhasan Bani-Sadr. Only after much of the IRP leadership was killed in the Hafte Tir bombing did Khomeini relent and allow Khamenei to run for president in the summer of 1980.

    They also seem to have disagreed about the war with Iraq. According to various sources, including Khomeini’s son Ahmad, the Grand Ayatollah wanted to bring the conflict to an end after taking back the southwestern city of Khorramshahr in April 1982, but Rafsanjani, among others, prevailed on him to prepare an offensive into Iraqi territory.

    As the 1980s progressed, Rafsanjani’s role within the state system far surpassed his formal title of parliamentary speaker. In international settings, he was treated like the state’s foremost figure. The West — including the Reagan administration — relied on him to end kidnappings in Lebanon, and he became known as the real power behind the scenes.

    By 1985, the fervent anti-Americanism he had previously displayed gave way to the realization that a tactical accommodation with the “Great Satan” was necessary. In a risky and ultimately unsuccessful move, he agreed to hold talks with a delegation led by national security adviser Robert McFarlane, which surreptitiously visited Tehran in October 1986 with much-needed weapons for the war effort. The Iran-Contra revelations severely embarrassed both Reagan and Rafsanjani, and the whole affair had major repercussions for the domestic scene. Nevertheless, two decades later, the Rafsanjani clan published a book including the delegation’s fake passports and the inscribed Bible Reagan gave to Rafsanjani to underscore the cooperation between these erstwhile adversaries.

    Rafsanjani was at the heart of several crucial developments during the last years of Khomeini’s life. Many believe he took part in the efforts lead by Ahmad Khomeini and minister of intelligence, Mohammad Reyshahri, to persuade the revolutionary leader to withdraw his support for his designated successor, Hossein ʿAli Montazeri. He certainly had motivation: Montazeri’s relative and close associate, Seyyed Mehdi Hashemi, and his people were responsible for leaking the details of McFarlane’s visit. In early 1988, Rafsanjani had to navigate a major internal crisis when Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi resigned and noted — in a secret letter to Khamenei — that other figures, including Rafsanjani, had gravely eroded his authority.

    That same year, the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Persian Gulf, killing almost three hundred civilians. Rafsanjani gloomily indicated during a Friday prayer speech that the tragedy was not an accident and warned that the United States would now intensify its involvement in the Iran-Iraq conflict. This likely contributed to Khomeini’s acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 598, which initiated the ceasefire between the two countries and which he famously compared to drinking a “poisoned chalice.”
    Consolidation

    Following the Iran-Iraq War and the death of the revolutionary patriarch in June 1989, many wondered if the revolutionary state and its institutions could survive without the uniquely charismatic Ayatollah Khomeini. Even before his death, the ruling establishment proved vulnerable as militant groups such as the People’s Mojahedin Organization and the Forqan, which opposed the political clerisy’s ascent, had assassinated several senior figures in the regime. Khamenei and Rafsanjani both survived attempts on their lives in this period, ensuring that these two friends would decisively shape the post-Khomeini political order.

    Rafsanjani played a key role in elevating Khamenei as Khomeini’s successor, but the more intimate details of his lobbying have yet to be fully revealed. It occurred as the Iranian elite was reeling, both politically and emotionally. Khomeini’s death came after a period of incapacitation, but it nevertheless caught senior state figures unprepared. As a result, the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body in charge of selecting and supervising the guardian jurist (vali-ye faqih), had to decide how best to handle the succession. Rafsanjani took to the podium and declared that Khomeini had stated his preference for Khamenei, despite his lack of clerical rank and authority. The latter was not an Ayatollah, let alone a marjaʿ al-taqlid (source of emulation or Grand Ayatollah).

    Khamenei’s accession unfolded in tandem with major constitutional amendments and changes in the revolutionary state’s institutional structure. The position of vali-ye faqih (often referred to nowadays as the “supreme leader”) was radically revised. No longer was his capacity to act as a source of emulation for the faithful, namely the criterion of marjaʿiyyat a prerequisite for the office. Instead, Khamenei had an “absolute mandate” to rule. At the same time, the office of prime minister was abolished, leaving a directly elected president, which Rafsanjani promptly assumed. These moves quickly consolidated power between the longstanding allies.

    At this moment, Rafsanjani was at the peak of his powers. Many have speculated that he placed his ally in this role because he was counting on Khamenei’s lack of religious credentials and limited influence among the clergy, to keep him relatively weak. Arguably, it was a calculation that would come back to haunt him in the last decade of his life.

    His two presidential terms have become associated with the period of the nation’s reconstruction. In the first few years, his partnership with Khamenei proved most efficacious. First in the 1990 Assembly of Experts’ elections — but most decisively in the 1992 Majles elections — they used the guardian council’s arrogation of the prerogative to supervise elections and thereby disqualify candidates to rapidly marginalize the so-called Islamic left, which included groups like the Association of Combatant Clerics, the so-called Imam’s Line, and the Mojahedin Organization of the Islamic Revolution. All of whose members had been Ayatollah Khomeini’s stalwart supporters and advocated for anti-imperialism and a radical foreign policy, state control of the economy, and the egalitarian redistribution of wealth.

    In response to the country’s very real internal and external economic and political challenges, Rafsanjani and Khamenei conspired to cast aside the Left. Thus, in 1992, they either saw disqualified or campaigned against a raft of sitting MPs and left-leaning regime loyalists, including Behzad Nabavi, Asadollah Bayat, Hadi Ghaffari, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, and the infamous Ayatollah Sadeq Khalkhali. In fact, only 20 percent of incumbents earned reelection that year.

    Consequently, the traditional right dominated the Fourth Majles, adding to the duo’s firm grip on the intelligence and security apparatuses, the state institutions regulating the Shiʿi clergy, the levers of economic power and patronage — including the ministry of petroleum — and a vast network of religious endowments. Despite starting from a position of weakness, Khamenei began to strengthen his hold on economic and military power. In Rafsanjani’s second term, a mild rivalry started to color their relationship.

    With the Left on the sidelines, Rafsanjani pursued what amounted to a neoliberal agenda of privatization and structural adjustment. He also created a regional détente with the Gulf states, above all Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which had bankrolled Saddam Hussein’s war effort with US support. Journalist Mohammad Quchani approvingly called Rafsanjani’s tenure the era of “depoliticization,” where “expertise” firmly supplanted “commitment.” Technocratic competency and state-directed economic liberalization without corresponding political reforms became the order of the day. Saʿid Hajjarian — a former intelligence officer who became a preeminent reformist strategist — recalled a meeting with Rafsanjani in which the president disdainfully shrugged off the very notion of political development, a euphemism for “democratization.”

    But after ejecting much of the Islamic left from the ranks of government, Rafsanjani was himself forced to cede primacy over the cultural and intellectual spheres to the traditional right. His brother Mohammad had to give up his long-standing control of state radio and television, while the future president Mohammed Khatami publicly resigned from the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, replaced by arch-conservative Ali Larijani (who has since joined the ranks of centrist principalists).

    The traditional right’s own predominantly mercantilist interests often conflicted with Rafsanjani’s efforts at economic liberalization. As a result, he had to pursue a more modest reform program. Resistance from below also appeared. In 1992, a tentative subsidy reform on foodstuffs and energy — which would only be implemented, ironically, under the Ahmadinejad government — coincided with inflation hovering around 50 percent, leading to tumultuous provincial bread riots.

    Moreover, the privatizations that did take place were far from straightforward. Selling shares to para-statal and quasi-statal organizations sparked allegations of crony capitalism and corruption that the Fourth Majles eventually had to redress through legislation, even if the issue was never satisfactorily resolved. Moreover, one of Rafsanjani’s key allies, Gholam Hossein Karbaschi — mayor of Tehran from 1989 to 1998 — played a crucial role in the capital city’s “urban renewal.” He sold off state-owned land below market value to the connected and well-heeled and exempted large developers from zoning laws, creating a speculative real-estate boom in which certain segments of the political and economic elite were seen to massively profit.

    Rafsanjani also helped create the Islamic Free University, which provided higher education to hundreds of thousands of students unable to enter the state system because of the competitive national examinations. Nevertheless, the university has been criticized for introducing market logic into education and thus exacerbating existing class divisions.

    As Kaveh Ehsani writes, the Rafsanjani administration had decided that “the Islamic Republic needed to first create its own loyal, Islamic (but neoliberal) middle class.” Rafsanjani, however, ultimately failed to develop an entrepreneurial class that could fully implement his neoliberal agenda. Attempts to do so — particularly through his half-hearted wooing of expatriate businessmen who had fled on the eve of the Islamic Republic — were largely met with scorn. The Executives of Reconstruction Party, heavily populated by the president’s kin, including his outspoken daughter Faʾezeh, would belatedly attempt to consolidate this new technocratic order in 1996.

    Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was invited by the government as a quid pro quo for its services during the war, to help reconstruct the country’s severely depleted infrastructure. Khamenei shrewdly capitalized on this development to augment his institutional power.

    This period also saw a slew of intellectuals, writers, and activists assassinated, arrested, and/or tortured. The long list even extends into the Khatami era and includes ʿAli Akbar Saʿidi Sirjani, Faraj Sarkuhi, Shapur Bakhtiar — the Shah’s last prime minister, who had tried to oust the Islamic Republic with Saddam Hussein’s support — and Sadeq Sharafkandi, secretary-general of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran. These killings have been strongly linked to the Iranian security apparatus, but the extent of Rafsanjani’s involvement remains unclear. Regardless, his objective of consolidating the regime he had been instrumental in building extended — with or without his direct participation — into neutralizing, by any means, dissenting and subversive voices.
    Between the Establishment and Reform

    When Mohammad Khatami became president in the June 1997 elections, many observers — including Rafsanjani — were surprised. In fact, the departing president would eventually admit that he had voted for Ali Akbar Nateq Nuri, the establishment candidate. Nor was he temperamentally disposed to the ethos of the emerging “reformist” camp, which rallied around Khatami. Their emphasis on political, rather than economic, change and openness in the media and intellectual spheres starkly contrasted with the ambitions and priorities of his own administration.

    In fact, between 1997 and 2001, the former president tilted more toward the conservatives, when the right wing became concerned the reformist coalition was taking control of the chief reins of government. In 2000, Rafsanjani ran for parliament in Tehran and sparked a major political crisis. He initially did not rank among the first thirty seats, but was reinstated after a known dissident was disqualified. The media waged a campaign against what they regarded as brazen interference, and Rafsanjani relinquished his seat at a high cost to the Khatami front.

    Entrenched as leader of the expediency council — a body whose influence grew in periods of mediation between parliament and the guardian council — Rafsanjani effectively helped stymie the reformist-dominated Sixth Majles, repeatedly kicking key reforms into the long grass. As a result, the public grew disenchanted with the reformers, seeing them as incapable of implementing their program.

    In 2005, Rafsanjani once again ran for president, arguing that only he could fix a deadlocked political system. His quixotic campaign used roller-skating young women to hand out posters to bemused drivers in Tehran. But Ahmadinejad’s insurgent candidacy derailed his plans and forced an unprecedented run-off. Rafsanjani scrambled and succeeded in winning the support of many moderates, dissidents, and artists, including the late ʿAbbas Kiarostami, who warned of a Chirac-Le Pen scenario.

    When the veteran candidate appeared at Tehran University to this end, he responded to students chanting the name of Akbar Ganji — an imprisoned journalist and public intellectual, who had famously characterized Rafsanjani as Iran’s very own Cardinal Richelieu — by saying conditions in prisons today were far better than under the Shah’s regime. In his final televised campaign interview, he unpersuasively apologized for not holding events outside Tehran in what appeared to be a last-ditch pledge to improve the plight of the neglected provinces.

    His defeat — which he half-heartedly attributed to security forces’ interference — effectively aligned him with the reformist camp he had previously been at odds with. By 2006, he recognized that Ahmadinejad threatened both the Iranian state and the fragile détente with the West that he and Khatami had laboriously engineered. For the last decade of his life, he would repeatedly call for moderation, speaking out against excesses and cautiously supporting Mir-Hossein Mousavi in the 2009 elections.

    Despite warning Khamenei about possible tampering on the eve of the vote and using his Friday prayer address to call for the release of scores of reformists in July 2009, Rafsanjani managed to keep his place within the state apparatus. Rather than directly challenge Khamenei — as Mousavi and Karroubi would — he retained his position as head of the expediency council.

    During the second Ahmadinejad administration, Rafsanajani stayed in the media spotlight, published his much-anticipated annual volumes of political diaries, and continued to lobby at the regime’s highest levels. Despite having few obvious cards to play, Rafsanjani drew on his myriad relationships across ministries, economic institutions, political factions, the bazaar, the clergy, and even the IRGC. He also compelled his son, Mehdi, to return home and face a jail sentence so that opponents couldn’t use the charge that his child was abroad and in the pay of foreigners against him politically.
    Transformation or Rebranding?

    In 2013, after remaining on the fence until the last hours of the registration window, Rafsanjani announced his bid for president without securing the customary approval from Khamenei, who rebuffed his attempts to discuss the matter. The guardian council rejected him on health grounds, paving the way for his protégé Hassan Rouhani, whom Rafsanjani had persuaded not to drop out, to carry the centrist ticket and win in the first round.

    Even in his final years, after he had lost many of the institutional levers he had once wielded so dexterously, Rafsanjani managed to interject himself at crucial political moments and tilt the balance of forces in one direction or another. These interventions were not without significance or merit. His continued support for Rouhani and the nuclear accord with the P5+1 helped alleviate the atmosphere of securitization, economic distress, and growing militarization that had characterized the Ahmadinejad years. When he decried the Western sanctions that “had broken the back” of the nation, he belittled the conservative attempts to portray the accord as a sellout.

    In recent years, prominent intellectuals like Akbar Ganji and Sadeq Zibakalam have debated whether Rafsanjani’s apparent “conversion” to reform represented a truly genuine transformation or another example of his essential Machiavellianism. But a more pertinent question would be what opportunities for contestation and increasing democratic accountability and pluralism were engendered as a result of his interventions and the unforeseen repercussions of elite competition and cleavage.

    On the one hand, his role as mediator between the ruling establishment and the reformists in these final years played an important part in assuaging the contradictions between popular expectations and the reality of regime governance. Since the late 1990s elite competition has taken place on the terrain of electoral and constitutional politics, and Iran’s sizeable urban population and middle classes were periodically summoned to provide momentum to their own mediated demands. A process that also harbored the potential for sparking deeper political transformation, and a renegotiation of the social contract defining the relationship of government and the governed.

    In the short term, reforms included resolving the nuclear impasse; returning to competent, technocratic economic management; lowering inflation and youth unemployment; releasing Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard; and loosening political and cultural restrictions.

    But in the long term, the reformist horizon strove for something like a new constitutional settlement that would place the supreme leader under close supervision — if not call for his direct election — hold the security apparatuses accountable, and reverse the guardian council’s powers over elections. Reformist activists, as well as political currents with negligible official representation, saw Rafsanjani’s funeral procession as one more opportunity to articulate these manifold demands, proving even his posthumous relevance to the political balance of power.

    Rafsanjani initiated a deeply personal form of statecraft, one that could not bring about a structured perestroika, but did enable the Islamic Republic to survive crises and challenges. Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s chief objective had always preserving the regime they helped build. The question of how to achieve this — and their material and institutional stake in it — rankled their relationship in later life and still divides the country.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akbar_Hashemi_Rafsanjani

    #Iran #politique #islam

  • Larijani : l’Iran s’oppose à la résurrection de l’empire perse
    http://vilistia.org/archives/13147

    Larijani : l’Iran s’oppose à la résurrection de l’empire perse 11 décembre 2016 Ali Larijani lors de l’ouverture de la 1ère conférence sur la sécurité en Asie de l’ouest #IRAN – Monde islamique – Spécial notre site Le chef … Lire la suite →

  • Will Iran’s most popular general enter politics?
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/qassem-soleimani-politics-iran-president-election.html#ixzz4BabEnQHb

    Since being one of the signatories to the letter warning Reformist Khatami in 1999 about the direction of the country, Soleimani has mostly stayed out of the politics. During the February parliament elections, Soleimani, while not explicitly endorsing traditional conservative candidate Ali Larijani, praised the parliament speaker just four days before the election. During the 2013 presidential election, Soleimani was believed to have supported conservative candidate Ghalibaf. At the time, the head of IRGC public relations was caught in a minor controversy when the Iranian media reported that he denied Soleimani’s endorsement. He later clarified that he never spoke about Soleimani but that the IRGC would not be endorsing a candidate.

    Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/06/qassem-soleimani-politics-iran-president-election.html#ixzz4BhKbEuGf

  • Iran: Rohani aura les coudées franches si le guide le veut bien
    https://fr.news.yahoo.com/iran-rohani-aura-coud%C3%A9es-franches-guide-veut-bien-140256454.html
    Par Stéphane BARBIER | AFP – 1er mars 2016

    La forte poussée des alliés du président iranien Hassan Rohani aux élections de vendredi vont lui donner les coudées plus franches pour poursuivre sa politique d’ouverture, dans la limite des lignes fixées par le guide suprême.

    Les réformateurs et modérés qui soutiennent M. Rohani, élu en 2013, ont enregistré de très bons résultats lors des législatives, sans toutefois obtenir la majorité des 290 sièges du Parlement.

    Mais les conservateurs n’obtiennent pas non plus la majorité et, surtout, les plus radicaux d’entre eux qui s’étaient opposés à l’accord nucléaire de juillet 2015 entre l’Iran et les grandes puissances ont été écartés. Cet accord et la levée des sanctions qui a suivi mi-janvier, a permis à l’Iran de sortir de son isolement.

    Après un second tour en avril pour 69 sièges en ballotage, le nouveau Parlement qui entrera en fonction en mai sera en grande majorité composé de députés modérés et pragmatiques des deux bords.

    Son actuel président, Ali Larijani, un conservateur modéré ayant approuvé l’accord nucléaire, pourrait retrouver son poste.

    Le quotidien réformateur Etemad notait mardi que « les élections du 26 février ont clairement changé l’atmosphère politique ». La division n’est plus désormais entre réformateurs et conservateurs, mais « entre ceux qui ont approuvé l’accord nucléaire et ceux qui étaient contre ».

    Une évolution notable qui devrait faciliter la tâche de M. Rohani dont l’objectif prioritaire sera de mettre en place des réformes économiques et sociales d’ici la présidentielle de 2017 pour augmenter ses chances d’être réélu pour un second et dernier mandat de quatre ans.(...)

    #Iran

  • Poutine, âme d’airain, forêts de pins, guerre et paix | Par M.K. Bhadrakumar – Le 19 octobre 2015 – Source mkbhadarkumar | Traduit par jj, relu par Diane pour le Saker Francophone
    http://lesakerfrancophone.net/poutine-ame-dairain-forets-de-pins-guerre-et-paix

    (...) Ma seconde considération était que la Russie a encaissé le coup du lapin de la nouvelle guerre froide et il est important d’obtenir une sensation de première main sur la façon dont il a réussi à surmonter le coup – et, enfin, à inverser la marée – de la stratégie de confinement tentée par les États-Unis. Bien sûr, il a dû sembler évident pour l’administration de Barack Obama, tout au long de l’affaire, que le projet d’isoler une grande puissance comme la Russie était voué à l’échec. Mais alors, Obama a été béni par le don de l’éloquence et a presque réussi à faire croire à un monde crédule qu’il était sérieux au sujet de l’aventure dans laquelle il se lançait. En fait, dans le processus, quelque chose a changé dans la mentalité russe. L’airain est entré dans son âme, et cela se reflète dans la conduite de la Russie sur la scène mondiale.

    Nous avons entendu tellement de lamentations américaines sur une Chine s’affirmant avec autorité. Mais nous n’avions pas encore vu à l’œuvre ce qu’est l’affirmation de soi tant que vous n’avions pas vu le retour de la Russie sur la scène mondiale. Est-ce une bonne chose ? Je pense que oui. Parce que, l’affirmation de soi de la Russie est une garantie de paix. L’équilibre stratégique mondial est extrêmement important pour maintenir la paix et seule la Russie peut fournir les bases de équilibre. Encore une fois, les règles de conduite internationale fondamentales doivent respecter le droit international et la Charte des Nations Unies. Le système international ne peut plus du tout être dominé par une superpuissance. L’insistance de la Russie sur ces règles de base introduit un mécanisme de correction bien nécessaire dans le système international d’aujourd’hui. (...)

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    Putin makes his move on Syria
    M K Bhadrakumar in Sochi
    October 22, 2015 16:59 IST
    http://www.rediff.com/news/column/putin-makes-his-move-on-syria-/20151022.htm

    The sudden, unexpected meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in Moscow late Tuesday, October 20, focused on the diplomatic push to kickstart a political process, according to prominent Russian experts here.

    As a top Russian diplomat, Ambassador Alexander Aksenyonok (who was involved in the negotiations over the Dayton Accord) told me in Sochi today, October 22, Moscow is keen on a political settlement in Syria “as early as possible — which is also our exit strategy.”

    From all accounts, the meeting in Moscow on Tuesday took place in an exceptionally warm, friendly atmosphere. Assad had come at short notice at Putin’s invitation. The two leaders held delegation- level talks as well as a restricted meeting.

    The official transcript by the Kremlin quoted Putin as saying to Assad, ’On the question of a settlement in Syria, our position is that positive results in military operations will lay the base for then working out a long-term settlement based on a political process that involves all political forces, ethnic and religious groups.’

    ’Ultimately,’ Putin added, ’it is the Syrian people alone who must have the deciding voice here. Syria is Russia’s friend and we are ready to make our contribution not only to the military operations and the fight against terrorism, but also to the political process. We would do this, of course, in close contact with the other global powers and with the countries in the region that want to see a peaceful settlement to this conflict.’

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    Russia, Iran hold common views on Syria
    M K Bhadrakumar – October 23, 2015
    http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar

    Sochi – It turned out to be a real treat that the speaker of the Iranian parliament who is on a visit to Russia, Ali Larijani (a key figure in the foreign and security policymaking in Tehran) flew down to Sochi from Moscow and joined President Vladimir Putin on the podium Friday evening to address the Valdai Club members and have a Q&A with us, lasting nearly three hours. Syria, Ukraine, missile defence and Russian-American relations — it could have been predicted that these would be the areas of interest for the audience, which was almost entirely western.

    The ‘hot topic’ of course was Syria, given President Bashar al-Assad’s sudden visit to Moscow on Tuesday evening. (See my column in Rediff Putin make his move on Syria.) The salience that came through is that there is no daylight possible between the Russian and Iranian positions on Syria. Whereas, speculations were rife lately in the western (and Israeli) media that Russia and Iran are not on the same page regarding the future of Syria, and that it is a matter of time before the contradictions would surface.

    Indeed, Russia and Iran are pursuing different objectives in Syria insofar as although both are waging a war against the Islamic State [IS] and other extremist groups, Tehran also has an agenda toward Syria in terms of that country being a frontline state in the so-called ‘resistance’ against Israel as well as in terms of Tehran’s nexus with the Hezbollah in Lebanon (plus of course the rivalry with Saudi Arabia.) Again, Russia would have geopolitical considerations in Syria, whereas Iran has its commitments as an Islamic republic to fulfill. Putin made the following specific points:

    – The Russian military assesses that the air strikes in Syria have already yielded some results, although they are ‘insufficient’ and it will still be desirable if ‘all countries’ could work together in the fight against the terrorist groups.
    – Russia hopes that Iran will join the FM level talks between the US, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. There cannot be a solution on Syria without Iran’s participation.
    – The Syrian army is making progress and this will continue.
    – Moscow is not planning any extension of military operations to Iraq. At any rate, the Iraqi government has not approached Russia so far. For the present, Russia is providing arms and intelligence to Iraq within the framework of the coordination centre that has been set up in Baghdad.
    – Putin had asked Assad whether he’d be open to working with moderate rebel groups to fight the extremists; Assad promised to consider.

    Larijani said:

    – He “totally agreed” with Putin’s analysis on Syria.
    – Iran regards that the Russian military intervention in Syria is legitimate.
    – Compared to the operations against the IS for over the past year and more by the US-led coalition, the Russian operations have proved effective. In fact, Russia has achieved already “much more” than the US-led coalition ever could during the past 18 months.
    – The IS transports its Iraqi oil in trucks moving in long convoys. “Don’t the Americans see these convoys?” The US failed to liberate any IS-held territory in Iraq. It is “playing games” with the IS and is virtually “handing over” Iraqi territories to the IS.
    – The intelligence agencies of “some major powers” have secret dealings with the IS, providing them weapons and so on with a view to use them as instruments to advance their interests. (Putin also indirectly, but forcefully, alluded to this collusion between the US and the IS.) The IS gets huge financial support from regional states.
    – “Long-term strategic bonds” are needed among “responsible countries” so that trust develops amongst them to tackle terrorism.(...)

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    Syrian war ends West’s dominance of Middle East
    By M K Bhadrakumar – October 26, 2015
    http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/10/26/syrian-war-ends-wests-dominance-of-middle-east

    Three weeks and 5 days into the Russian military operations in Syria, Moscow has achieved the objective of compelling the major external players involved to rethink their established stance on the crisis. Unsurprisingly, new fault lines have appeared in Middle East politics. Last week witnessed a surge diplomatic activity to cope with the new fault lines.

    First, of course, much as the United States dislikes the Russian military role in Syria, Washington and Moscow concluded a memorandum of understanding on Tuesday regarding the ground rules guiding the aircraft of the two countries operating in the Syrian skies so that no untoward incidents occur. In political terms, Washington is coming to terms with a Russian presence in Syria for a foreseeable future. (By the way, an analysis by FT concludes that Russia can easily sustain the financial costs of the military operations in Syria.)

    This, in turn, has intensified the US-Russian diplomatic exchanges on Syria. The US Secretary of State John Kerry met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Vienna on Friday at a meeting that also included the foreign ministers of Turkey and Saudi Arabia to discuss the various approaches to bringing together the Syrian parties to peace talks.

    Kerry disclosed that the discussions may continue in a wider format (possibly including Iran, Egypt and Jordan as well) next Friday, which suggests that there was sufficient meat in the discussions in Vienna to be followed up without delay. Put differently, some sort of coordinated US-Russian moves on Syria in the coming days or weeks cannot be ruled out. (...)

    #Valdai #Larijani

    • Dans le dernier texte MK Bhadrakumar écrit :

      Meanwhile, Egypt and Jordan have edged closer to Moscow. Russia and Jordan have agreed, in fact, to set up a coordination centre to cooperate on the ground in the fight against the Islamic State. This is a signal diplomatic achievement for Moscow since Jordan has been the ‘frontline’ state from where the ‘regime change’ agenda was being pushed into Syria by the US and its allies. In effect, Jordan has pulled out of the enterprise to overthrow Assad.

      As for Egypt, it has spoken in favor of the Russian operations in Syria and has stated that the fight against terrorism ought to be the top priority, and, furthermore, that Syria’s unity and stability is of utmost concern. Egypt’s stance has displeased Saudi Arabia, which explains the hurried trip by Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir to Cairo on Sunday. It appears that Al-Jubeir could not persuade Egypt to fall in line with the Saudi approach, which continues to be fixated on the pre-requisite that Assad must be removed from power and that in any peace process that comes first.

      Ta ta ta ta L’Egypte qui se rapproche de la Russie quitte à mécontenter l’Arabie Saoudite qui doit normalement payer les deux Mistrals, commandés par la Russie, à la France....

  • Iran sends navy vessels to waters off Yemen, raising stakes - Washington Times
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/8/us-quickens-weapons-deliveries-to-saudi-led-yemen-

    Iran dispatched a destroyer and another naval ship to waters off Yemen on Wednesday, raising the stakes amid a Saudi-led air campaign targeting Iranian-backed Shiite rebels fighting forces loyal to the country’s embattled president.

    The Iranian maneuver came as the U.S. deepened its support for the Saudi-led coalition, boosting weapons supplies and intelligence-sharing and carrying out the first U.S. aerial refueling mission of coalition fighter jets.

    The Iranian warships were sent to the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait as part of an anti-piracy campaign to “safeguard naval routes for vessels in the region,” Iranian Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayyari was quoted as saying by the English-language state broadcaster Press TV.
    ...
    On Wednesday, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani condemned the Saudi government, accusing it of committing crimes against humanity in Yemen during airstrikes that hit civilian areas. His comments, carried by the official Iran news agency, came as Iranian diplomats worked to erode support among Sunni nations for the air campaign, visiting Pakistan and Turkey, both supporters of the Saudi-led coalition, and Oman, the only Gulf country that has abstained from participating in the military operation.
    ...
    In Washington, meanwhile, Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren told reporters Wednesday that the U.S. had conducted its first military intervention in support of the Arab coalition, the aerial refueling of Emirati F-16s and Saudi F-15s. He did not provide details, except to say the refueling did not take place over Yemeni airspace.

    Speaking a day earlier in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken blamed the violence in Yemen on the Houthis and forces loyal to Saleh, saying the U.S. was committed to defending Saudi Arabia.

    ...

    On Wednesday, al-Qaida in Yemen, a staunch rival of the Houthis, posted a video offering a bounty of 44 pounds (20 kilograms) of gold for whoever captures or kills the rebel leader and his prime ally in Yemen, ousted president Saleh.

  • Renaud Girard du Figaro dénonce les néoconservateurs français de l’Elysées et du Quai d’Orsay sur le dossier iranien

    Dans son article « La carte turque de la diplomatie américaine » du 23 avril, Renaud Girard écrit que sur le dossier iranien la France

    semble hélas marginalisée

    En mai 2007, Ali Larijani, alors numéro trois du régime iranien, en charge du Nucléaire avait, dans une entretien au Figaro, proposé que la France joue un rôle d’intermédiaire sincère entre Washington et Téhéran. Cette offre avait été torpillée par un petit cla de diplomates néoconservateurs sévissant au Quai d’Orsay et à l’Elysée. A Washington cela fait longtemps que les néoconservateurs ont perdu toute influence dans un Département d’Etat qui s’apprête à confier à la Turquie ce beau rôle d’honest broker en Orient...

    La question est aussi de savoir si, aujourd’hui, avec un gouvernement socialiste, les néoconservateurs français ont perdu de l’influence sur le dossier iranien...

    Le texte intégral n’est accessible sur Internet qu’aux abonnés
    http://www.lefigaro.fr/mon-figaro/2013/04/22/10001-20130422ARTFIG00569-la-carte-turque-de-la-diplomatie-americaine.php

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  • Do We Have #Ahmadinejad All Wrong? - Reza Aslan - International - The Atlantic
    http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/01/do-we-have-ahmadinejad-all-wrong/69434

    According to a U.S. diplomatic cable recently published by #WikiLeaks, Ahmadinejad, despite all of his tough talk and heated speeches about Iran’s right to a nuclear program, fervently supported the Geneva arrangement, which would have left #Iran without enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. But, inside the often opaque Tehran government, he was thwarted from pursuing the deal by politicians on both the right and the left who saw the agreement as a "defeat" for the country and who viewed Ahmadinejad as, in the words of Ali Larijani, the conservative Speaker of the Majles, "fooled by the Westerners."