person:assad

  • Un point assez complet sur les combats actuels en Syrie et la pause dans les pourparlers :
    Syrian rebels launch new assaults as opposition seeks peace talks ’pause’
    MEE / 18.04.16
    http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/rebels-launch-new-offensives-syrian-opposition-seeks-pause-peace-talk
    Relevé des points saillants :
    A Lattaquieh :

    Among the groups involved in the Latakia offensive are Kataib Ansar al-Sham, the al-Qaeda-linked Turkistan Islamic Party, Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam and the First Coastal Division.

    A Hama :

    There were also reports of a new opposition offensive against government targets in Hama.
    According to the pro-Assad al-Masdar news site, fighters from the al-Qaeda splinter group Jund al-Aqsa launched a major assault on the al-Ghaab Plains near the Hama-Latakia axis, in an attempt to capture the village of Khirbat al-Naqous.

    A Alep :

    On Sunday, government jets carried out air strikes in Aleppo province that killed at least 11 civilians, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory of Human Rights.

    Formation d’une nouvelle chambre d’opération commune Ahrar al-Cham/ Jaysh al-Islam et groupes labellisés ASL - sans qu’al-Nousra qui participe aux combats, avec d’autres organisations classées terroristes (Parti Islamique du Turkestan), n’en fassent formellement partie :

    A number of groups, including the powerful Ahrar al-Sham group, also announced on Monday the “formation of a joint operations room to begin the battle...in response to violations by the army of Assad”.

    Toujours la question d’Assad sur laquelle les négociations achoppent :

    Negotiations between the opposition and the government have stalled over the government’s refusal to discuss the opposition’s call for Assad to step aside as part of any peace deal and some have suggested that rebels on the ground have pushed for the opposition negotiators to withdraw from talks altogether.

    Les tweets de Mohammed Allouche, négociateur du HCN (opposition de Ryadh) appellant à frapper le régime partout - et donc à mettre fin à la cessation des hostilités :

    On Sunday, Mohammed Alloush, senior negotiator for the HNC, called in a tweet for the resumption of attacks on Syrian government targets.
    “Don’t trust the regime and don’t wait for their pity,” Alloush wrote on Twitter.
    “Strike them at their necks [kill them]. Strike them everywhere,” he said, reciting a passage from the Quran dealing with war.

    En bonus de jolies photos/vidéos récentes de rebelles avec des missiles anti-tanks américains TOW et des missiles sol-air portatifs (chinois)...

    #option_Stinger

  • In Bid to Repair Mr. Security Image, Netanyahu Lets Secret Slip - Israel News - Haaretz
    http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.714543

    Until now, we thought Israel was sticking to a policy of ambiguity, silence and no comment, so as not to humiliate Syrian President Assad publicly and thus provoke him into retaliating. The members of the security cabinet, too, were surprised to discover from the media that this “hush-hush” matter, as one of them put it this week, was now public knowledge. “For years, we’ve been told that silence on these issues is critical, and suddenly, like nothing, it’s out there,” said one security cabinet minister who asked not to be named.

    [...]

    Some ministers conclude that Netanyahu has embarked on a political damage-control operation to repair the battering his security image took on the issue of the soldier who shot a wounded Palestinian in Hebron last month.

  • Entre autres extraits, cette variante sur le classique : Porochenko et Erdoǧan sont dans un bateau…

    Most Hated Leaders, Lady Friends, and Assad : Highlights from Putin’s Marathon Q&A | Foreign Policy
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/14/most-hated-leaders-lady-friends-and-assad-highlights-from-putins-mara

    Least favorite world leaders: Putin openly discusses his dislike for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan so regularly that even a 12-year-old girl who got the chance to ask a question Thursday wanted to know which one he hates the most.

    If Poroshenko and Erdogan were both sinking, whom would you save first?” she asked.

    You’re putting me in a complicated situation,” Putin responded. “I guess it’s this way: If someone decides to drown, it’s impossible to save them. But we’re, of course, ready to extend a helping hand, a hand of friendship, to any of our partners if they’re ready for that.

    #VVP

  • Arrêtez les rotatives : les médias occidentaux ont enfin appris que cette fois ça y est c’est la bonne, les alaouites lâchent Assad, c’est un « mortal blow », un « turning point » (comme annoncé régulièrement depuis 2011…). #grosse_fatigue

    Reports : Syria′s Alawites distance themselves from Assad
    http://www.dw.com/en/reports-syrias-alawites-distance-themselves-from-assad/a-19161450

    Leon Goldsmith, an expert on the Alawite sect, told Britain’s “Daily Telegraph” newspaper that the document could mark a turning point.
    “I see this document as extremely significant,” he said. “It could well pose a mortal blow to Assad.”

  • The Syrian Pound’s Black Market Moves are a Futures Contract on Bashar Al Assad - MoneyBeat - WSJ
    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/04/01/the-syrian-pounds-black-market-moves-are-a-futures-contract-on-bashar-al-

    Sur la chute récente de la livre syrienne.

    Most of the drop came in one steep leg from March 15 to March 27, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s surprise announcement that Russia was to begin withdrawing its military presence from the country.

    An earlier dip seemed to follow reports that Saudi Arabia would consider deploying troops inside the country. Both circumstances were perceived as bad news for Mr. Assad.

    It’s not the first time that black-market currencies have shadowed military and political developments.

    Vour aussi : http://syriadirect.org/news/syrian-pound-meets-%E2%80%98a-bout-of-extreme-weakness%E2%80%99-after-m

    #syrie

  • La policía turca mata a tiros a sirios, entre ellos niños, que intentan cruzar su frontera

    Fuerzas fronterizas turcas están disparando los refugiados cuando escapan de la guerra civil en Siria, según ha confirmado el periódico británico The Times. Dieciséis personas, entre ellas tres niños, han sido asesinadas por los guardias turcos mientras trataban de cruzar la frontera durante los últimos cuatro meses, según el Observatorio Sirio para los Derechos Humanos.

    http://www.eldiario.es/desalambre/Turquia-dispara-refugiados-intentan-frontera_0_500450171.html
    #réfugiés_syriens #mourir_aux_frontières #Turquie #assassinat #frontière

  • Un article du Los Angeles Times évoque les combats entre rebelles syriens soutenus par le Pentagone et intégrés aux SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) et ceux soutenus par la CIA.
    Il a été plusieurs fois question ici de ces affrontements entre groupes soutenus par l’Etat américain et qui continuent :
    http://seenthis.net/messages/462463
    http://seenthis.net/messages/460835
    http://seenthis.net/messages/435727

    L’article clarifie la question en soulignant les 2 acteurs divergents au sein de l’appareil militaire américain. La CIA organisant la chute d’Assad. Le Pentagone essayant de créer une force anti-Da’ich. Et parfois ces deux projets entrant en collision au nord de la Syrie (poche d’Azaz et cheikh Maqsoud à Alep) quand les Russes ayant affaiblis les rebelles de la CIA, ceux au sein des SDF/YPG ont progressé (coupant avec le régime le corridor d’Azaz) :
    http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-cia-pentagon-isis-20160327-story.html

    While the Pentagon’s actions are part of an overt effort by the U.S. and its allies against Islamic State, the CIA’s backing of militias is part of a separate covert U.S. effort aimed at keeping pressure on the Assad government in hopes of prodding the Syrian leader to the negotiating table. [...]
    At first, the two different sets of fighters were primarily operating in widely separated areas of Syria — the Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeastern part of the country and the CIA-backed groups farther west. But over the last several months, Russian airstrikes against anti-Assad fighters in northwestern Syria have weakened them. That created an opening which allowed the Kurdish-led groups to expand their zone of control to the outskirts of Aleppo, bringing them into more frequent conflict with the CIA-backed outfits.

    Suivent des précisions sur certains de ces combats dont ceux ayant eu lieu à Marea (poche d’Azaz).
    Au détour de l’article une précision : les déclarations du général américain commandant des troupes américaines au Moyen-Orient (Centcom) selon lesquelles 80% des combattants des SDF sont kurdes :

    The group is dominated by Kurdish outfits known as People’s Protection Units or YPG. A few Arab units have joined the force in order to prevent it from looking like an invading Kurdish army, and it has received air-drops of weapons and supplies and assistance from U.S. Special Forces.
    The group is dominated by Kurdish outfits known as People’s Protection Units or YPG. A few Arab units have joined the force in order to prevent it from looking like an invading Kurdish army, and it has received air-drops of weapons and supplies and assistance from U.S. Special Forces.Gen. Joseph Votel, now commander of U.S. Special Operations Command and the incoming head of Central Command, said this month that about 80% of the fighters in the Syrian Democratic Forces were Kurdish.

  • Dans le Guardian, le témoignage d’une mère belge dont les 3 enfants sont partis en Syrie et qui critique les autorités de son pays :
    ‘Our sons are victims of Isis brainwashers – and of our government’
    Guardian / 27.03.2016
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/27/belgian-mother-betrayed-by-government-and-isis-when-sons-went-to-syria?
    Elle a averti les autorités en 2013 sur le risque que son fils de 22 ans parte là-bas, à quoi on lui a répondu qu’il n’était pas illégal de partir combattre Assad. Puis ensuite sur son fils le plus jeune de 16 ans, qui peut prendre tranquillement l’avion en direction de la Turquie :

    Her younger son, Rashid, followed three months later, when he was still only 16. He told his mother he was going to the movies and on for a bowling game with some friends, and that evening he called home from Istanbul.
    “How come he could cross the border at Zaventem when he was under 18? The airport authorities should have stopped both of them,” she told the Observer. “I was totally shattered. I only had the energy to call the police and ask them to go and bring him back.”

    Et le rappel des déclarations du ministre des affaires étrangères belge expliquant que les « combattants » belges partant en Syrie mériteraient plus tard un monument à la gloire de la révolution, donne de la substance aux accusations de cette mère :

    “Today they all say, ‘we never would have imagined, we never knew’, but actually they were accomplices,” she said. “Our children are first victims of a criminal organisation that brainwashed them. But they are also victims of our political leaders and foreign minister.”
    The horror of Brussels: ’My memories stop at 9.10am. When they come back, I have blood on my face’
    A few days after Rashid left Brussels, Didier Reynders, Belgium’s foreign minister, said of those going to fight: “One day, perhaps, we will build a monument for them as heroes of the revolution.

  • ISIS Cell Behind West Europe Attacks Predates Caliphate
    http://news.antiwar.com/2016/03/24/isis-cell-behind-west-europe-attacks-predates-caliphate

    There is so much hype surrounding the ongoing US war against ISIS that it’s easy to forget that just a few years ago, the US administration was largely ambivalent toward the group as a whole, and many people were openly praising the Europeans who went to Syria to fight against Assad as freedom fighters.

    The Financial Times http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98f2e504-f1d4-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html is reporting that’s where the cell blamed for both the Brussels and Paris attacks came from, and indeed that many of the attackers themselves went to Syria to join Islamist factions before ISIS had more than a token presence, back when the US involvement in Syria was exclusively backing rebel blocs.

    #retour_de_bâton#combattants_de_la_liberté

  • Russia is Flying Israeli Drones Against Anti-Assad Rebels in Syria - The Daily Beast
    03.24.16 6:00 AM ET
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/24/russia-is-flying-israeli-drones-against-anti-assad-rebels-in-syria.ht

    Russia is Flying Israeli Drones Against Anti-Assad Rebels in Syria
    Military hardware from the Jewish State is helping Putin save Assad.

    Russia’s sort-of-but-not-really withdrawal from Syria passed without the world noticing that it featured aerial technology from a surprising source —Israel, which provided the high-tech surveillance drones that apparently help the Russian warplanes find and strike their targets on the ground.

    The Russian air force acquired a number of 20-foot-long Searcher drones from Israel Aerospace Industries, one of the world’s leading manufacturers of unmanned aerial vehicles, starting in 2010.

    Russia also acquired from IAI, which is wholly owned by the Israeli government, a license to make its own copies of the propeller-driven Searcher, a rough equivalent of the U.S. military’s own Predator drone.(...)

  • Steinmeier : Zukunft Syriens nur ohne Assad
    http://www.oe24.at/welt/Steinmeier-Zukunft-Syriens-nur-ohne-Assad/228289583

    Si j’en crois la traduction arabe (http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=410934), M. Steinmeier, ministre allemand des Affaires étrangères, aurait déclaré qu’il ne pouvait pas imaginer qu’après 250000 morts et 12 millions de réfugiés Assad puisse être suffisamment accepté par l’ensemble des composantes (l’arabe dit confessions) du peuple syrien.

    Quand commenceront-ils à comprendre un peu quelque chose à la manière dont les Syriens vivent ce drame, au lieu de prendre leurs vessies pour des lanternes qui éclairent la marche de (leur) histoire ?

    #syrie

  • #Wikileaks / Mails Hillary Clinton.
    Mail de juillet 2012 adressé par Sidney Blumenthal à Hillary Clinton (qui a transféré) dans lequel sont rapportés les sentiments de « sources » dans les communautés de renseignement occidentaux et israéliens sur les évènements en Syrie et l’opportunité ou pas d’une attaque israélienne sur l’Iran.
    Un de ces avis rapportés fait état du fait que les services français et britanniques sont convaincus que leurs homologues israéliens espèrent la chute d’Assad qui isolerait l’Iran et que ces services israéliens pensent que cela pourrait enflammer une guerre confessionnelle chiites/sunnites qui serait dans l’intérêt d’Israël et de ses alliés occidentaux :
    https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/12172

    UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2014-20439 Doc No. C05795336 Date: 01/07/2016 7.
    One particular source states that the British and French Intelligence services believe that their Israeli counterparts are convinced that there is a positive side to the civil war in Syria; if the Assad regime topples, Iran would lose its only ally in the Middle East and would be isolated. At the same time, the fall of the House of Assad could well ignite a sectarian war between the Shiites and the majority Sunnis of the region drawing in Iran, which, in the view of Israeli commaders would not be a bad thing for Israel and its Western allies. In the opinion of this individual, such a scenario would distract and might obstruct Iran from its nuclear activities for a good deal of time. In addition, certain senior Israeli intelligence analysts believe that this turn of events may even prove to be a factor in the eventual fall of the current government of Iran.

    AVERTISSEMENT DR SOURIYAM (diplômé d’Etat en psychiatrie idéologique et en sociologie de la stabulation)
    Le fait de s’intéresser aux services secrets constitue bien souvent le 1er signe de l’émergence de troubles paranoïaques. Le fait que vous lisiez ce mail peut signifier que, sans vous en rendre compte, vous soyez déjà atteint du mal. Si celui-ci n’est pas traité, il peut entraîner des complications et s’aggraver en conspirationnisme aigu.
    Si vous voyez dans ce mail un signe qu’Israël pourrait chercher à aggraver les tensions communautaires et diviser son environnement régional, c’est que vous avez déjà atteint le stade supérieur de la maladie : l’obsession anti-israélienne et donc l’antisémitisme.
    Dans ce cas vous devez contacter au plus vite une cellule de déradicalisation qui vous permettra de bénéficier de soins adéquats prodigués par des spécialistes, et d’éviter ainsi d’être recruté par Daech.

    PS : Si vous faîtes partie des services français ou britanniques, ce message ne vous concerne pas. Merci de ne pas en tenir compte.

    • Tué par Liwaa Chouhada al-Yarmouk - comme l’indique l’article, soit la branche de Da’ich aux confins du Golan sous occupation israélienne et de la Jordanie.
      Du coup, après cette percée en territoire rebello-al-Qaïdesque au sud (prise de Tasil et Adwan), Da’ich s’approche de la ville de Sheikh Maskin, sous contrôle du régime et menace le nord de Deraa :


      et

    • La chose « amusante » est que ce groupe, désormais filiale de Da’ich, a fait autrefois partie de la coalition du « Front du Sud » et a donc reçu directement l’aide des Occidentaux et des pétromonarchies via la Jordanie.
      Il avait aussi très probablement obtenu l’aide des Israéliens à travers la ligne du Golan - sachant par ailleurs que c’est ce même groupe qui avait procédé au kidnapping de casques bleus philippins en 2013 sur le Golan... :
      http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/liwa-shuhada-al-yarmouk-history-and-analysis

      At the time, Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk seemed keen to assure outsiders of its supposedly good intentions, even telling the Times of Israel that the group’s quarrel was only with Assad regime and praising Israeli medical treatment for refugees. [...]
      In July, Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk announced participation in the “Umm al-Ma’arak” (“Mother of Battles”) to capture Nawa from regime forces, though that operation was ultimately unsuccessful. At this point, Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk’s nationalist rebel affiliations were still apparent, and in October the group joined a coalition of 50 southern formations embodied in the “Revolution Leadership Council- Southern Region. ” In a show of military strength, a video emerged in November 2013 of a large military parade held by Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk. At the time, Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk’s leader Ali al-Baridi (nickname: al-Khal) claimed that the group’s control of territory extended from the area of Tel Shehab (near the border with Jordan) to the occupied Golan.
      Moving into 2014, Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk continued to participate in rebel operations, being one of the declared participants alongside Jabhat al-Nusra and other brigades in the “Hold fast to God’s rope entirely and don’t separate” battle announced in late February to capture strategic positions between Deraa and Quneitra. In that same month, Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk was also one of the declared components of the ‘Southern Front’ initiative backed by the West and Gulf states. At the end of April, the brigade along with some other groups announced a new offensive to take Tel al-Jumu’ and other areas to the south of Nawa, though that came to nothing as an identical initiative with more participants including Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk was announced in June.

      Even at this point, Liwa Shuhada’ al-Yarmouk’s public affiliations were ostensibly clear in its appearance as a signatory to a statement signed by 54 southern groups affirming respect for human rights and democracy: as per the third clause, “We fight so that Syrian men and women may choose a free and democratic system that establishes a prosperous state respecting the aspirations of Syrians in the freedom and dignity for which they have fought.”

  • Excellent article de Patrick Cockburn dans The Independent qui analyse la déconnexion médiatique et politique entre les affaires de terrorisme en Europe et les politiques étrangères occidentales qui ont favorisé ces phénomènes au Moyen-Orient (surtout) et ici (un peu), de l’Irak en passant par la Libye, le Yémen et la Syrie :
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/how-politicians-duck-the-blame-for-terrorism-a6942016.html

    There has always been a disconnect in the minds of people in Europe between the wars in Iraq and Syria and terrorist attacks against Europeans. This is in part because Baghdad and Damascus are exotic and frightening places, and pictures of the aftermath of bombings have been the norm since the US invasion of 2003. But there is a more insidious reason why Europeans do not sufficiently take on board the connection between the wars in the Middle East and the threat to their own security. Separating the two is much in the interests of Western political leaders, because it means that the public does not see that their disastrous policies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and beyond created the conditions for the rise of Isis and for terrorist gangs such as that to which Salah Abdeslam belonged.

    Suit le détail par Cockburn de ces conflits, dans lesquels les dirigeants occidentaux portent une lourde responsabilité et qui ont permis l’aggravation de ces phénomènes terroristes :

    A strange aspect of these conflicts is that Western leaders have never had to pay any political price for their role in initiating them or pursuing policies that effectively stoke the violence. Isis is a growing power in Libya, something that would not have happened had David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy not helped destroy the Libyan state by overthrowing Gaddafi in 2011. Al-Qaeda is expanding in Yemen, where Western leaders have given a free pass to Saudi Arabia to launch a bombing campaign that has wrecked the country.

    Suit le témoignage de Balanche sur sa censure dans les médias qui se plaint d’un mc carthysme intellectuel :

    It is worth quoting at length Fabrice Balanche , the French cartographer and expert on Syria who now works for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, about these misperceptions in France, although they also apply to other countries. He told Aron Lund of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “The media refused to see the Syrian revolt as anything other than the continuation of revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, at a time of enthusiasm over the Arab Spring. Journalists didn’t understand the sectarian subtleties in Syria, or perhaps they didn’t want to understand; I was censored many times.
    “Syrian intellectuals in the opposition, many of whom had been in exile for decades, had a discourse similar to that of the Iraqi opposition during the US invasion of 2003. Some of them honestly confused their own hopes for a non-sectarian society with reality, but others – such as the Muslim Brotherhood – tried to obfuscate reality in order to gain the support of Western countries.
    In 2011–2012, we suffered a type of intellectual McCarthyism on the Syrian question: if you said that Assad was not about to fall within three months, you would be suspected of being paid by the Syrian regime. And with the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs having taken up the cause of the Syrian opposition, it would have been in bad taste to contradict its communiqués.
    By taking up the cause of the Syrian and Libyan opposition and destroying the Syrian and Libyan states, France and Britain opened the door to Isis and should share in the blame for the rise of Isis and terrorism in Europe. By refusing to admit to or learn from past mistakes, the West Europeans did little to lay the basis for the current, surprisingly successful “cessation of hostilities” in Syria which is almost entirely an US and Russian achievement.
    Britain and France have stuck close to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies in their policies towards Syria. I asked a former negotiator why this was so and he crisply replied: “Money. They wanted Saudi contracts.”

  • Le Washington Post nous avait déjà rapporté, en janvier 2016, cette parole de Moshe Yaalon (ministre de la Défense israélien) selon laquelle s’il avait à choisir entre Da’ich et Assad, il choisirait Da’ich : https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/01/19/israeli-defense-minister-if-i-had-to-choose-between-iran-and-isis-id-choose-isis/?tid=sm_tw

    Speaking at the Institute for National Security Studies’ (INSS) conference in Tel Aviv on Jan. 19, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon made a bold statement: If he had to choose between Iran and the Islamic State, he told the audience, he’d “choose ISIS.”

    Pour confirmer, Michael Oren, ex-ambassadeur aux USA et associé à l’actuelle coalition au pouvoir en Israel nous a fait un remake, rapporté dans le Wall Street Journal ce 17 mars :
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/israels-main-concern-in-syria-iran-not-isis-1458207000

    “If we have to choose between ISIS and Assad, we’ll take ISIS. ISIS has flatbed trucks and machine guns. Assad represents the strategic arch from Tehran to Beirut, 130,000 rockets in the hands of Hezbollah, and the Iranian nuclear program,” said Michael Oren, a prominent lawmaker from Israel’s governing coalition and a former ambassador to Washington.

    Parce que comme l’explique Dore Gold, du ministère des affaires étrangères :

    Asked in an interview to state Israel’s main objective in Syria, Dore Gold, the director-general of the foreign ministry, said: “At the end of the day, when some kind of modus vivendi is reached inside of Syria, it is critical from the Israeli standpoint that Syria does not emerge as an Iranian satellite incorporated fully into the Iranian strategic system.”

    • @gonzo : oui, c’est d’ailleurs ce que dit l’article en évoquant les craintes israéliennes d’un nouveau front dans le Golan organisé par le Hezbollah, et l’acquisition de nouvelles armes iraniennes.
      Mais j’avais oublié de mettre le lien vers l’article du WSJ, je viens de l’ajouter...

      As many Israeli officials see it, however, that wouldn’t be such a good scenario if it ends up benefiting the Syrian military and its critical Lebanese ally, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, which remains sworn to Israel’s destruction. [...]
      Israel’s immediate concerns are to prevent Hezbollah from opening a second front from Syrian soil opposite the Israeli-held Golan Heights, and to prevent transfers of sophisticated Iranian weapons to the Lebanese militia.

  • Interpreting the Russian Withdrawal from Syria - Syria in Crisis - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
    http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=63042

    Putin may be telling the truth. The Russian intervention has achieved quite a lot. It has undercut the Syrian opposition, stabilized Assad’s government, and produced a peace process on more favorable terms for Assad than was previously possible. Perhaps Putin was always planning for an intervention of limited duration and kept Assad informed about this. With a truce in place, now is a good time to start scaling it down.

    Meanwhile, other forms of support to the Syrian government are likely to continue and, if the peace process collapses, Putin could easily reverse his decision. Remember, the Hmeymim and Tartus bases will remain operational, which leaves Russia with all the infrastructure it needs to resume airstrikes on short notice.

    Putin may be bluffing. The Russian government is not above a bit of wartime subterfuge and Putin saying something is not the same as Moscow actually doing it. The Kremlin has very consistently lied about its troop presence in eastern Ukraine and about what insurgent factions are being targeted in Syria. It is possible that the Russian president is simply telling his enemies what they want to hear, in order to mollify critics in the White House and gain time, without any intention of stopping the attacks.

  • Moscow informed Washington, Damascus and Tehran of its intention to reduce forces in Syria
    https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/03/16/moscow-informed-washington-damascus-and-tehran-of-its-intention-

    Russian aircraft continue leaving Hammymeem military base daily for two destinations: One back home and another to continue bombing ISIS positions. Six months ago, Russia has managed, in few days, to establish a vast military operation in Syria and turn the course of the war. If the Cease-fire falls apart, the over hundred jets will return also in a matter of days for the “plan B”.

    #Syrie #Russie

    • Très intéressant !
      Selon le bien informé Elijah Magnier, les Russes veulent des élections en zone gouvernementale et rebelle sous supervision de l’ONU et où Assad puisse concourir.
      Après ce retrait partiel Moscou attend d’Obama qu’il fasse le second pas, c’est-à-dire faire pression sur ses alliés turc, qatari et saoudien pour que l’envoi d’armes vers la rébellion cesse et qu’une entente russo-américaine ait lieu pour la prise de Raqqa :

      Russia, according to high-ranking sources, informed Washington, Damascus and Tehran of its step of reducing forces in Syria. The Kremlin expect from the United States to exert its promises imposing on regional parties, i.e. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, to stop all sorts of weapons and financial supply to all rebels without exception. The USA is confident to obtain from its regional allies in the Middle East this commitment at the cost of joining the bombing, with Russia, of all those willing to continue fighting and violate the open-date Cease-fire in Syria. Saudi Arabia and Turkey see no longer Syria as a possibility to implement their old plans and agreed, theoretically, to act accordingly. Russia would be monitoring this particular stand in the coming days.

      A la lecture de Magnier on a l’impression qu’un deal américano-russe est en train de s’établir et que ce retrait partiel en est le second palier (après le cessez-le-feu partiel), même si la défiance reste de mise de part et d’autre.

      Certaines déclarations des uns et des autres peuvent a posteriori se lire comme des signes avant-coureurs d’un deal en discussion - même si cette annonce a manifestement surpris tous les analystes - et donc crédibiliser cet article d’E.J. Magnier.
      Par exemple ces déclarations de Lavrov sur une entente discutée avec Washington pour la prise de Raqqa (fin de la #course_vers_Raqqa ? : http://seenthis.net/messages/469866), comme aussi les propos d’Obama rapportés dans #Obama_doctrine sur la volonté des alliés US du Golfe d’utiliser les muscles américains pour leurs « intérêts sectaires étroits » : http://seenthis.net/messages/469057

  • Au rythme régulier d’une fois par semaine, un Américain fantasme à haute voix sur le fait que “nous” devrions redessiner les frontières du Moyen Orient.

    Time to redraw the map of the Middle East - Peter Van Buren
    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2016/03/10/commentary/world-commentary/time-redraw-map-middle-east

    The only answer left, the one not yet tried, is to negotiate a comprehensive resolution that addresses all of the issues, borders and struggles now underway. That resolution will need to be enforced with military power coordinated by the U.S., Russia and Iran, with each speaking for, and agreeing to corral, its proxies.

    It will mean giving the Islamic State group a seat at the table, as the British were forced to do with the Irish Republican Army in the 1990s to resolve the Troubles in Northern Ireland. One, by definition, must negotiate peace with one’s enemies. That is why, in part, the current cease-fire in Syria, which excluded Islamic State, has little chance of achieving any long-term progress.

    Out of the new negotiations will have to emerge a Kurdistan, with land from Turkey, Iraq, perhaps Iran, and Syria. Assad will stay in power as a Russian proxy. Iran’s hold on Shiite Iraq will strengthen. A Sunni homeland, to include the political entity Islamic State will morph into, will need to be assured via a strict hands-off policy by Baghdad.

    That Sunni homeland offers the first real way to geographically contain Islamic State. There obviously is risk in overtly allowing Islamic State to continue to exist, though that lives alongside the questions of whether it can be militarily destroyed, or if another group will simply take its place, as Islamic State did with al-Qaida in Iraq. These groups are symptoms of the broader Sunni-Shiite problem, not problems of their own per se.

    (Oui, la confusion entre l’IRA et l’ÉI est charmantissime.)

  • Raqqa/Deïr az-Zor : avec les préparatifs pour la bataille de Mossoul la course à la prise du contrôle du territoire syrien sous contrôle de Da’ich entre des alliances concurrentes se met en place doucement, mais sûrement.

    Selon Elijah Magnier, le régime et ses alliés ne lanceront pas la bataille sur Raqqa tant que la bataille de Mossoul ne sera pas lancée par les Américains et leurs alliés. D’abord parce que ce serait s’exposer à des déplacements de troupes de Da’ich d’Irak vers la Syrie, et ensuite parce que le principal danger reste al-Nousra qui dispose de soutiens extérieurs. En attendant cette bataille de Mossoul, ils se concentrent donc sur al-Nousra dans la province d’Idlib et essaient de se positionner pour reprendre 3 villes à Da’ich : Qaryatayn, Palmyre et Tabaqa
    https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/03/01/the-raqqa-offensive-needs-mosul-first-and-the-iraqi-popular-mobi
    The Raqqa offensive needs Mosul first and The Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Force to Syria

    The Syrian “axis of resistance”, formed of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Lebanese “Hezbollah” Special Forces, Iraqi of the PMF, Pakistani and Afghan militias, all operating in Syria and backed by Russia, are preparing new military plans to advance on two main axes in the north of Syria: The first, in the northwest in Jisr al-Shughur, Idlib and rural areas of Aleppo to counter al-Qaeda in the Levant – Jahbat al Nusra and its allies. The second, is the attack against ISIS on three fronts: Qariyateyen, Palmyra, and Tabqa, without going too close to Raqqa. Both al-Qaeda and its Jihadist allies on one hand, and ISIS on the other, are not included in any cease-fire or deal related to a possible peace process or Cease-fire in Syria. While Russia and its allies prepare for their war in Syria, the U.S.A is gathering Iraqi forces and many American advisors around Mosul for the Iraqi J-Day.

    La reprise de Qaryatayn et Palmyre (Tadmor), qui sont encore loin d’être faites, permettrait d’attaquer ensuite non seulement Raqqa par le sud mais aussi de briser le siège de Deïr az-Zor. Quant à Tabaqa, sa prise permettrait de couper Raqqa de toute la rive ouest du lac Assad et d’un accès à la Turquie au nord.

    En tout cas, côté Irak, les préparatifs pour la bataille de Mossoul semblent se mettre en place. D’autant que le YPG a récemment progressé en prenant la ville de Shedadeh sur l’axe Hasakeh-Deïr az-Zor. Et les déclarations d’officiels américains sont assez ambigües pour laisser penser que la course vers Raqqa, au moins par l’Irak pour la coalition américaine, est lancée :
    http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2016/02/battle-mosul-has-begun/126304
    The Battle for Mosul Has Begun

    “We are focused on eliminating the enemy in Raqqa every single day. We’re doing airstrikes there constantly,” McGurk said. “We know more now than we ever did before, and we’re beginning to constrict [the coalition’s] hold on Raqqa.”
    Carter called Shadadi “a critical node for ISIL training and logistics, as well as for its oil enterprise. As our partners take control of Shadadi, I believe we will learn a great deal more about ISIL’s criminal networks, its criminal enterprise, and what it does to sustain them.”
    McGurk said the Mosul push will be guided from a new joint operations center in Makhmur, southwest of the Kurdish capital of Irbil. The coalition also has forces in Sinjar, Hit, and al-Assad Air Base to the south, a key special operations launching point which has remained under U.S. and Iraqi control.
    “Because of our strategy and our determination to accelerate our campaign, momentum is now on our side and not on ISIL’s,” Carter said.

    Al-Monitor s’intéresse lui aussi au sujet :
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/02/syria-regime-advance-raqqa.html#ixzz41f6V3BGR
    Is Syrian regime about to retake Raqqa ?

    Regarding the next steps, the same leader in Athriya said, “Our operations will continue along the Athriya-Raqqa axis, and our forces will secure the road from Athriya to Khanasir. The Russian air force will protect the two forces [on the Athriya-Khanasir and Athriya-Raqqa axes] against any attacks that might risk us losing the regions we retook.” The Syrian regime managed to regain control over the town of Khanasir on Feb. 25.
    Abdel Rahman Daoud, a political analyst close to the Syrian regime, told Al-Monitor, “The Syrian army will stand its ground in the Raqqa battle because regaining the province is an important step to eliminate the danger of division, and because the Russian leadership wants to block the way to any US attempt to control IS’ main stronghold amid the public field race between Russia and the United States.”
    The Raqqa battle is still relatively far away if we look at it from the perspective of distances that the Syrian army would have to cross. But from an ambitious perspective, it has become imminent. IS has blocked the road the Syrian regime would need to cross to reach the north of the country. This might make the regime’s ambitions harder to fulfill.

  • Syria Truce Comes With Price, but Not for Assad
    By DAVID E. SANGER FEB. 26, 2016
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/27/world/middleeast/syria-truce-comes-with-price-but-not-for-assad.html

    Une #partition de la #Syrie oui, mais pas n’importe laquelle (ne dit pas l’article),

    Mr. Gordon noted that the cessation of hostilities agreement may “effectively start to develop into a de facto partition of the country, whereby different ethnic groups control the regions they are currently holding.” That is what worries the Israelis, who see a Syrian-Russian-Iranian axis developing on their border, a group that already has the support of the terrorist group Hezbollah.

    Over time, European and Israeli officials say, the cease-fire may give Mr. Assad lasting control of the string of major cities — Damascus to Homs to Aleppo — that are now increasingly in his control, thanks to Russian and Iranian support. And it begins to etch out other territory for the Sunni opposition groups backed by Washington and the Arab states, while giving a sliver in the north to the Kurds.

    John Kirby, Mr. Kerry’s spokesman, disputes the idea that the agreement would carve Syria along the existing battle lines. “You need to look at the text,” he said. “Every document includes explicit commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and you could argue that we’ve actually made a stronger commitment against partition than ever before, because all of the parties have signed on to that notion.”

    A senior administration official, who would not speak on the record about the internal White House deliberations, argued that the separate enclaves were temporary and would make it possible for negotiations on a political settlement to get started.

  • Liberal, Harsh Denmark
    Hugh Eakin

    A cartoon published by the Danish newspaper Politiken showing Inger Støjberg, the country’s integration minister, lighting candles on a Christmas tree that has a dead asylum-­seeker as an ornament, December 2015
    Anne-Marie Steen Petersen

    1.
    In country after country across Europe, the Syrian refugee crisis has put intense pressure on the political establishment. In Poland, voters have brought to power a right-wing party whose leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, warns that migrants are bringing “dangerous diseases” and “various types of parasites” to Europe. In France’s regional elections in December, some Socialist candidates withdrew at the last minute to support the conservatives and prevent the far-right National Front from winning. Even Germany, which took in more than a million asylum-seekers in 2015, has been forced to pull back in the face of a growing revolt from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s own party and the recent New Year’s attacks on women in Cologne, allegedly by groups of men of North African origin.
    And then there is Denmark. A small, wealthy Scandinavian democracy of 5.6 million people, it is according to most measures one of the most open and egalitarian countries in the world. It has the highest income equality and one of the lowest poverty rates of any Western nation. Known for its nearly carbon-neutral cities, its free health care and university education for all, its bus drivers who are paid like accountants, its robust defense of gay rights and social freedoms, and its vigorous culture of social and political debate, the country has long been envied as a social-democratic success, a place where the state has an improbably durable record of doing good. Danish leaders also have a history of protecting religious minorities: the country was unique in Nazi-occupied Europe in prosecuting anti-Semitism and rescuing almost its entire Jewish population.
    When it comes to refugees, however, Denmark has long led the continent in its shift to the right—and in its growing domestic consensus that large-scale Muslim immigration is incompatible with European social democracy. To the visitor, the country’s resistance to immigrants from Africa and the Middle East can seem implacable. In last June’s Danish national election—months before the Syrian refugee crisis hit Europe—the debate centered around whether the incumbent, center-left Social Democrats or their challengers, the center-right Liberal Party, were tougher on asylum-seekers. The main victor was the Danish People’s Party, a populist, openly anti-immigration party, which drew 21 percent of the vote, its best performance ever. Its founder, Pia Kjærsgaard, for years known for suggesting that Muslims “are at a lower stage of civilization,” is now speaker of the Danish parliament. With the backing of the Danish People’s Party, the center-right Liberals formed a minority government that has taken one of the hardest lines on refugees of any European nation.
    When I arrived in Copenhagen last August, the new government, under Liberal Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, had just cut social benefits to refugees by 45 percent. There was talk among Danish politicians and in the Danish press of an “invasion” from the Middle East—though the influx at the time was occurring in the Greek islands, more than one thousand miles away. In early September, Denmark began taking out newspaper ads in Lebanon and Jordan warning would-be asylum-seekers not to come. And by November, the Danish government announced that it could no longer accept the modest share of one thousand refugees assigned to Denmark under an EU redistribution agreement, because Italy and Greece had lost control of their borders.
    These developments culminated in late January of this year, when Rasmussen’s minister of integration, Inger Støjberg, a striking, red-headed forty-two-year-old who has come to represent the government’s aggressive anti-refugee policies, succeeded in pushing through parliament an “asylum austerity” law that has gained notoriety across Europe. The new law, which passed with support from the Social Democrats as well as the Danish People’s Party, permits police to strip-search asylum-seekers and confiscate their cash and most valuables above 10,000 Danish kroner ($1,460) to pay for their accommodation; delays the opportunity to apply for family reunification by up to three years; forbids asylum-seekers from residing outside refugee centers, some of which are tent encampments; reduces the cash benefits they can receive; and makes it significantly harder to qualify for permanent residence. One aim, a Liberal MPexplained to me, is simply to “make Denmark less attractive to foreigners.”
    Danish hostility to refugees is particularly startling in Scandinavia, where there is a pronounced tradition of humanitarianism. Over the past decade, the Swedish government has opened its doors to hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Syrians, despite growing social problems and an increasingly popular far-right party. But one of the things Danish leaders—and many Danes I spoke to—seem to fear most is turning into “another Sweden.” Anna Mee Allerslev, the top integration official for the city of Copenhagen, told me that the Danish capital, a Social Democratic stronghold with a large foreign-born population, has for years refused to take any refugees. (Under pressure from other municipalities, this policy is set to change in 2016.)
    In part, the Danish approach has been driven by the country’s long experience with terrorism and jihadism. Nearly a decade before the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris in January 2015, and the coordinated terrorist attacks in Paris in November, the publication of the so-called Muhammad cartoons by the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten had already turned Denmark into a primary target for extremists. Initially driven by a group of Danish imams, outcry against the cartoons gave strength to several small but radical groups among the country’s 260,000 Muslims. These groups have been blamed for the unusually large number of Danes—perhaps as many as three hundred or more—who have gone to fight in Syria, including some who went before the rise ofISIS in 2013. “The Danish system has pretty much been blinking red since 2005,” Magnus Ranstorp, a counterterrorism expert who advises the PET, the Danish security and intelligence service, told me.
    Since the publication of the Muhammad cartoons, the PET and other intelligence forces have disrupted numerous terrorist plots, some of them eerily foreshadowing what happened in Paris last year. In 2009, the Pakistani-American extremist David Headley, together with Laskar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani terrorist organization, devised a meticulous plan to storm the Jyllands-Posten offices in Copenhagen and systematically kill all the journalists that could be found. Headley was arrested in the United States in October 2009, before any part of the plan was carried out; in 2013, he was sentenced by a US district court to thirty-five years in prison for his involvement in the Mumbai attacks of 2008.
    In February of last year, just weeks after the Charlie Hebdo attacks, a young Danish-Palestinian man named Omar Abdel Hamid el-Hussein tried to shoot his way into the Copenhagen meeting of a free-speech group to which a Swedish cartoonist, known for his caricatures of Muhammad, had been invited. El-Hussein succeeded in killing a Danish filmmaker at the meeting before fleeing the scene; then, hours later, he killed a security guard at the city’s main synagogue and was shot dead by police.
    Yet many Danes I talked to are less concerned about terrorism than about the threat they see Muslims posing to their way of life. Though Muslims make up less than 5 percent of the population, there is growing evidence that many of the new arrivals fail to enter the workforce, are slow to learn Danish, and end up in high-crime immigrant neighborhoods where, while relying on extensive state handouts, they and their children are cut off from Danish society. In 2010, the Danish government introduced a “ghetto list” of such marginalized places with the goal of “reintegrating” them; the list now includes more than thirty neighborhoods.
    Popular fears that the refugee crisis could overwhelm the Danish welfare state have sometimes surprised the country’s own leadership. On December 3, in a major defeat for the government, a clear majority of Danes—53 percent—rejected a referendum on closer security cooperation with the European Union. Until now, Denmark has been only a partial EU member—for example, it does not belong to the euro and has not joined EU protocols on citizenship and legal affairs. In view of the growing threat of jihadism, both the government and the opposition Social Democrats hoped to integrate the country fully into European policing and counterterrorism efforts. But the “no” vote, which was supported by the Danish People’s Party, was driven by fears that such a move could also give Brussels influence over Denmark’s refugee and immigration policies.
    The outcome of the referendum has ominous implications for the European Union at a time when emergency border controls in numerous countries—including Germany and Sweden as well as Denmark—have put in doubt the Schengen system of open borders inside the EU. In Denmark itself, the referendum has forced both the Liberals and the Social Democrats to continue moving closer to the populist right. In November, Martin Henriksen, the Danish People’s Party spokesman on refugees and immigration, toldPolitiken, the country’s leading newspaper, “There is a contest on to see who can match the Danish People’s Party on immigration matters, and I hope that more parties will participate.”
    2.
    According to many Danes I met, the origins of Denmark’s anti-immigration consensus can be traced to the national election of November 2001, two months after the September 11 attacks in the United States. At the time, the recently founded Danish People’s Party was largely excluded from mainstream politics; the incumbent prime minister, who was a Social Democrat, famously described the party as unfit to govern.
    But during the 1990s, the country’s Muslim population had nearly doubled to around 200,000 people, and in the 2001 campaign, immigration became a central theme. The Social Democrats suffered a devastating defeat and, for the first time since 1924, didn’t control the most seats in parliament. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the ambitious leader of the victorious Liberal Party (no relation to the current prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen), made a historic decision to form a government with support from the Danish People’s Party, which had come in third place—a far-right alliance that had never been tried in Scandinavia. It kept Fogh Rasmussen in power for three terms.
    From an economic perspective, the government’s embrace of the populist right was anomalous. With its unique combination of comprehensive welfare and a flexible labor market—known as flexicurity—Denmark has an efficient economy in which the rate of job turnover is one of the highest in Europe, yet almost 75 percent of working-age Danes are employed. At the same time, the country’s extraordinary social benefits, such as long-term education, retraining, and free child care, are based on integration in the workforce. Yet many of the qualities about the Danish system that work so well for those born into it have made it particularly hard for outsiders to penetrate.
    Denmark is a mostly low-lying country consisting of the Jutland Peninsula in the west, the large islands of Funen and Zealand in the east, and numerous smaller islands. (It also includes the island of Greenland, whose tiny population is largely Inuit.) The modern state emerged in the late nineteenth century, following a series of defeats by Bismarck’s Germany in which it lost much of its territory and a significant part of its population. Several Danish writers have linked this founding trauma to a lasting national obsession with invasion and a continual need to assert danskhed, or Danishness.
    Among other things, these preoccupations have given the Danish welfare system an unusually important part in shaping national identity. Visitors to Denmark will find the Danish flag on everything from public buses to butter wrappers; many of the country’s defining institutions, from its universal secondary education (Folkehøjskoler—the People’s High Schools) to the parliament (Folketinget—the People’s House) to the Danish national church (Folkekirken—the People’s Church) to the concept of democracy itself (Folkestyret—the Rule of the People) have been built to reinforce a strong sense of folke, the Danish people.
    One result of this emphasis on cohesion is the striking contrast between how Danes view their fellow nationals and how they seem to view the outside world: in 1997, a study of racism in EU countries found Danes to be simultaneously among the most tolerant and also the most racist of any European population. “In the nationalist self-image, tolerance is seen as good,” writes the Danish anthropologist Peter Hervik. “Yet…excessive tolerance is considered naive and counterproductive for sustaining Danish national identity.”
    According to Hervik, this paradox helps account for the rise of the Danish People’s Party, or Dansk Folkeparti. Like its far-right counterparts in neighboring countries, the party drew on new anxieties about non-European immigrants and the growing influence of the EU. What made the Danish People’s Party particularly potent, however, was its robust defense of wealth redistribution and advanced welfare benefits for all Danes. “On a traditional left-right scheme they are very difficult to locate,” former prime minister Fogh Rasmussen told me in Copenhagen. “They are tough on crime, tough on immigration, but on welfare policy, they are center left. Sometimes they even try to surpass the Social Democrats.”
    Beginning in 2002, the Fogh Rasmussen government passed a sweeping set of reforms to limit the flow of asylum-seekers. Among the most controversial were the so-called twenty-four-year rule, which required foreign-born spouses to be at least twenty-four years old to qualify for Danish citizenship, and a requirement that both spouses combined had spent more years living in Denmark than in any other country. Unprecedented in Europe, the new rules effectively ended immigrant marriages as a quick path to citizenship. At the same time, the government dramatically restricted the criteria under which a foreigner could qualify for refugee status.
    To Fogh Rasmussen’s critics, the measures were simply a way to gain the support of the Danish People’s Party for his own political program. This included labor market reforms, such as tying social benefits more closely to active employment, and—most notably—a muscular new foreign policy. Departing from Denmark’s traditional neutrality, the government joined with US troops in military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq; Denmark has since taken part in the interventions in Libya and Syria as well. (In his official state portrait in the parliament, Fogh Rasmussen, who went on to become general secretary of NATO in 2009, is depicted with a Danish military plane swooping over a desolate Afghan landscape in the background.)
    Yet the immigration overhaul also had strong foundations in the Liberal Party. In 1997, Bertel Haarder, a veteran Liberal politician and strategist, wrote an influential book called Soft Cynicism, which excoriated the Danish welfare system for creating, through excessive coddling, the very stigmatization of new arrivals to Denmark that it was ostensibly supposed to prevent. Haarder, who went on to become Fogh Rasmussen’s minister of immigration, told me, “The Danes wanted to be soft and nice. And we turned proud immigrants into social welfare addicts. It wasn’t their fault. It was our fault.”
    According to Haarder, who has returned to the Danish cabinet as culture minister in the current Liberal government, the refugees who have come to Denmark in recent years overwhelmingly lack the education and training needed to enter the country’s advanced labor market. As Fogh Rasmussen’s immigration minister, he sought to match the restrictions on asylum-seekers with expedited citizenship for qualified foreigners. But he was also known for his criticism of Muslims who wanted to assert their own traditions: “All this talk about equality of cultures and equality of religion is nonsense,” he told a Danish newspaper in 2002. “The Danes have the right to make decisions in Denmark.”
    3.
    Coming amid the Fogh Rasmussen government’s rightward shift on immigration and its growing involvement in the “war on terror,” the decision by the Danish paperJyllands-Posten in September 2005 to publish caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad seemed to bring into the open an irresolvable conflict. In the decade since they appeared, the cartoons have been linked to the torching of Western embassies, an unending series of terrorist attacks and assassination plots across Europe, and a sense, among many European intellectuals, that Western society is being cowed into a “tyranny of silence,” as Flemming Rose, the former culture editor of Jyllands-Postenwho commissioned the cartoons and who now lives under constant police protection, has titled a recent book.1 In his new study of French jihadism, Terreur dans l’hexagone: Genèse du djihad français, Gilles Kepel, the French scholar of Islam, suggests that the cartoons inspired an “international Islamic campaign against little Denmark” that became a crucial part of a broader redirection of jihadist ideology toward the West.
    And yet little about the original twelve cartoons could have foretold any of this. Traditionally based in Jutland, Jyllands-Posten is a center-right broadsheet that tends to draw readers from outside the capital; it was little known abroad before the cartoons appeared. Following reports that a Danish illustrator had refused to do drawings for a book about Muhammad, Rose invited a group of caricaturists to “draw Muhammad as you see him” to find out whether they were similarly inhibited (most of them weren’t). Some of the resulting drawings made fun of the newspaper itself for pursuing the idea; in the subsequent controversy, outrage was largely directed at just one of the cartoons, which depicted the Prophet wearing a lit bomb as a turban. Even then, the uproar began only months later, after the Danish prime minister refused a request from diplomats of Muslim nations for a meeting about the cartoons. “I thought it was a trap,” Fogh Rasmussen told me. At the same time, several secular Arab regimes, including Mubarak’s Egypt and Assad’s Syria, concluded that encouraging vigorous opposition to the cartoons could shore up their Islamist credentials.
    Once angry mass protests had finally been stirred up throughout the Muslim world in late January and early February 2006—including in Egypt, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Lebanon, and Afghanistan—the crisis quickly took on a logic that had never existed at the outset: attacks against Western targets led many newspapers in the West to republish the cartoons in solidarity, which in turn provoked more attacks. By the time of the Charlie Hebdo massacre in early 2015, there was a real question of what Timothy Garton Ash, in these pages, has called “the assassin’s veto,” the fact that some newspapers might self-censor simply to avoid further violence.2 Jyllands-Posten itself, declaring in an editorial in January 2015 that “violence works,” no longer republishes the cartoons.
    Lost in the geopolitical fallout, however, was the debate over Danish values that the cartoons provoked in Denmark itself. Under the influence of the nineteenth-century state builder N.F.S. Grundtvig, the founders of modern Denmark embraced free speech as a core value. It was the first country in Europe to legalize pornography in the 1960s, and Danes have long taken a special pleasure in cheerful, in-your-face irreverence. In December Politiken published a cartoon showing the integration minister Inger Støjberg gleefully lighting candles on a Christmas tree that has a dead asylum-seeker as an ornament (see illustration on page 34).
    Explaining his own reasons for commissioning the Muhammad cartoons, Flemming Rose has written of the need to assert the all-important right to “sarcasm, mockery, and ridicule” against an encroaching totalitarianism emanating from the Islamic world. He also makes clear that Muslims or any other minority group should be equally free to express their own views in the strongest terms. (Rose told me that he differs strongly with Geert Wilders, the prominent Dutch populist and critic of Islam. “He wants to ban the Koran. I say absolutely you can’t do that.”)
    But Rose’s views about speech have been actively contested. Bo Lidegaard, the editor of Politiken, the traditional paper of the Copenhagen establishment, was Fogh Rasmussen’s national security adviser at the time of the cartoons crisis. Politiken, which shares the same owner and inhabits the same high-security building as Jyllands-Posten, has long been critical of the publication of the cartoons by its sister paper, and Lidegaard was blunt. “It was a complete lack of understanding of what a minority religion holds holy,” he told me. “It also seemed to be mobbing a minority, by saying, in their faces, ‘We don’t respect your religion! You may think this is offensive but we don’t think its offensive, so you’re dumb!’”
    Lidegaard, who has written several books about Danish history, argues that the cartoons’ defenders misread the free speech tradition. He cites Denmark’s law against “threatening, insulting, or degrading” speech, which was passed by the Danish parliament in 1939, largely to protect the country’s Jewish minority from anti-Semitism. Remarkably, it remained in force—and was even invoked—during the Nazi occupation of Denmark. According to Lidegaard, it is a powerful recognition that upholding equal rights and tolerance for all can sometimes trump the need to protect extreme forms of speech.
    Today, however, few Danes seem concerned about offending Muslims. Neils-Erik Hansen, a leading Danish human rights lawyer, told me that the anti–hate speech law has rarely been used in recent years, and that in several cases of hate crimes against Muslim immigrants—a newspaper boy was killed after being called “Paki swine”—the authorities have shown little interest in invoking the statute. During the cartoon affair, Lidegaard himself was part of the foreign policy team that advised Prime Minister Fogh Rasmussen not to have talks with Muslim representatives. When I asked him about this, he acknowledged, “The government made some mistakes.”
    4.
    Last fall I visited Mjølnerparken, an overwhelmingly immigrant “ghetto” in north Copenhagen where Omar el-Hussein, the shooter in last year’s attack against the free speech meeting, had come from. Many of the youth there belong to gangs and have been in and out of prison; the police make frequent raids to search for guns. Upward of half the adults, many of them of Palestinian and Somali origin, are unemployed. Eskild Pedersen, a veteran social worker who almost single-handedly looks after the neighborhood, told me that hardly any ethnic Danes set foot there. This was Denmark at its worst.
    And yet there was little about the tidy red-brick housing blocks or the facing playground, apart from a modest amount of graffiti, that suggested dereliction or squalor. Pedersen seems to have the trust of many of his charges. He had just settled a complicated honor dispute between two Somalian families; and as we spoke, a Palestinian girl, not more than six, interrupted to tell him about a domestic violence problem in her household. He has also found part-time jobs for several gang members, and helped one of them return to school; one young man of Palestinian background gave me a tour of the auto body shop he had started in a nearby garage. (When a delegation of Egyptians was recently shown the neighborhood, the visitors asked, “Where is the ghetto?”)
    But in Denmark, the police force is regarded as an extension of the social welfare system and Pedersen also makes it clear, to the young men especially, that he works closely with law enforcement. As last year’s shooting reveals, it doesn’t always work. But city officials in Copenhagen and in Aarhus, Denmark’s second city, describe some cases in which local authorities, drawing on daily contact with young and often disaffected Muslims, including jihadists returning from Syria, have been able to preempt extremist behavior.
    Across Europe in recent weeks, shock over the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees has quickly been overtaken by alarm over the challenge they are now seen as posing to social stability. Several countries that have been welcoming to large numbers of Syrian and other asylum-seekers are confronting growing revolts from the far right—along with anti-refugee violence. In December Die Zeit, the German newsweekly, reported that more than two hundred German refugee shelters have been attacked or firebombed over the past year; in late January, Swedish police intercepted a gang of dozens of masked men who were seeking to attack migrants near Stockholm’s central station. Since the beginning of 2016, two notorious far-right, anti-immigration parties—the Sweden Democrats in Sweden and Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom in the Netherlands—became more popular than the ruling parties in their respective countries, despite being excluded from government.
    Nor is the backlash limited to the right. Since the New Year’s attacks by migrants against women in Cologne, conservative opponents of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s refugee policy have been joined by feminists and members of the left, who have denounced the “patriarchal” traditions of the “Arab man.” Recent data on the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, who in January were polling at 28 percent of the popular vote, shows that the party’s steady rise during Sweden’s decade of open-asylum policies has closely tracked a parallel decline in support for the center-left Social Democrats, the traditional force in Swedish politics. Confronted with such a populist surge, the Swedish government announced on January 27 that it plans to deport as many as 80,000 asylum-seekers.
    As the advanced democracies of Europe reconsider their physical and psychological borders with the Muslim world, the restrictive Danish approach to immigration and the welfare state offers a stark alternative. Brought into the political process far earlier than its counterparts elsewhere, the Danish People’s Party is a good deal more moderate than, say, the National Front in France; but it also has succeeded in shaping, to an extraordinary degree, the Danish immigration debate. In recent weeks, Denmark’s Social Democrats have struggled to define their own immigration policy amid sagging support. When I asked former prime minister Fogh Rasmussen about how the Danish People’s Party differed from the others on asylum-seekers and refugees, he said, “You have differences when it comes to rhetoric, but these are nuances.”
    In January, more than 60,000 refugees arrived in Europe, a thirty-five-fold increase from the same month last year; but in Denmark, according to Politiken, the number of asylum-seekers has steadily declined since the start of the year, with only 1,400 seeking to enter the country. In limiting the kind of social turmoil now playing out in Germany, Sweden, and France, the Danes may yet come through the current crisis a more stable, united, and open society than any of their neighbors. But they may also have shown that this openness extends no farther than the Danish frontier.
    —February 10, 2016

    #danemark #migrations #asile #réfugiés

  • The Battle of School Curricula (1): Oppression and Mayhem | SyriaUntold | حكاية ما انحكت
    http://www.syriauntold.com/en/2016/02/the-battle-of-school-curricula-1-oppression-and-mayhem

    There are now more than 5 different curricula taught to Syrian students outside regime schools, as too many sides have decided to chip in each with their own curricular standards.

    Syrian Opposition Interim Government Curriculum: Taught mainly in the rebel-held north and mid-northern areas. It is very similar to the regime curriculum, with pro-Assad content removed and selected religious classes amended. Similar, locally-carved up textbooks are also taught in areas hard to reach by the Interim government, such as the besieged Ghouta in rural Damascus. They sometimes include additional practical trainings on safety and first aid, as well as extra-curricular activities for emotional and social skill development and psycho-social support.
    Islamic Opposition curricula: Such as that of al-Tawheed Front or Al-Cham Committee. These curricula include an increased amount of religious classes, both theoretical and practical. They are also free of pro-regime content but have occasionally also cancelled classes viewed as unorthodox from a conservative religious perspective, such as music or philosophy. More extreme Islamic groups such as Al Nusra Front have “secret” curriculum in their schools with little information available about its content to anyone outside those schools.
    UNICEF “Virtual School for Education in Crises”: A project still under development, “designed to provide children and adolescents affected by conflict in the region with the opportunity to continue their education and receive certification for their learning”. Apart from the obvious access challenges to Internet, electronic devices and electricity altogether, it is still unclear what the content of this curriculum will be exactly, as it has been stated that it will focus only on “Arabic, English, Math and Science”.
    Kurdish curriculum: In northern areas under the rule of Kurdish autonomous government and “Syria’s Democratic Forces” of the PYD party, new textbooks for the first 3 grades of elementary school have been printed in Latin alphabet Kurdish. The possibility of learning Arabic at schools in those areas still vary from one town to the next. This curriculum is the first to introduce Yazidi religious classes in its religion curriculum, alongside those of Christianity and Islam. However, much opposition has faced this curriculum from both Kurds and non-Kurds due to the overt PYD/PKK ideological indoctrination in it, as well as the consequences of the Assad regime closing down public schools that teach this curriculum by cutting off staff salaries and denying them accreditation.
    ISIS schools: Accurate information about education under ISIS is scarce. Back in 2014, the organization used amended regime curriculums in public schools of areas under their control, sometimes completely omitting entire subjects like music, arts, philosophy, history and even chemistry. It was later rumored that they have designed and printed their own curriculum from scratch, the cover front pages of which were leaked recently from their stronghold town of Raqqa through twitter by the media activist group “Raqqa is being slaughtered silently”. The visual aesthetic quality of those books surpasses anything ever published by Assad regime, while content, as the Raqqa group told SyriaUntold “is nothing but blatant warmongering. A simple math problem for grade school would be something like this: If we had 5 Kalashnikovs and 3 grenades, how many weapons do we have in total?”
    Other sources indicate that ISIS are only teaching religious subjects, in addition to practical lessons in martial arts and basic weapon use. Public school teachers were discharged at first, then they were made to attend a “repentance” course of ISIS theological indoctrination as a condition to returning to their work. Those who refused are then declared as infidels, “legally” charged and in some cases have even had their property confiscated or risked facing imprisonment or execution in an attempt to drive them all out. Even private lessons are facing encroachment by ISIS, which puts a whole generation of children in grave danger in these regions.

    #syrie #éducation

  • Le texte officiel de l’accord de cessez-le-feu en Syrie qui vient être signé entre Américains et Russes et qui doit rentrer en application le 27 février à 0h00 (heure Damas) est lisible en intégralité (en anglais) sur le site du State Department :
    http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/02/253115.htm

    the cessation of hostilities commence at 00:00 (Damascus time) on February 27, 2016.

    Cet accord de cessez-le-feu ne concerne ni Da’ich ni Jabhat al-Nousra, ni les organisations listées comme terroristes par l’ONU. Certains font remarquer justement que ce texte qui fait référence à la résolution 2254 du CS de l’ONU en abandonne pourtant la formule « ainsi que le Front al-Nosra et tous les autres individus, groupes, entreprises et entités associés à Al-Qaida » http://seenthis.net/messages/458334#message458473
    Une manière de permettre à tous les groupes qui se sont alliés à al-Nousra au sein de la coalition Jaysh al-Fatah, notamment Ahrar al-Cham, de bénéficier du cessez-le-feu.

    The nationwide cessation of hostilities is to apply to any party currently engaged in military or paramilitary hostilities against any other parties other than “Daesh”, “Jabhat al-Nusra”, or other terrorist organizations designated by the UN Security Council.

    Notons en passant que le Parti Islamique du Turkestan en est exclu puiqu’il a été inscrit en 2002 sur la liste des groupes terroristes à l’ONU : https://web.archive.org/web/20121219171112/http://www.un.org:80/sc/committees/1267/NSQE08802E.shtml

    Le 26 février au plus tard, tous les groupes prêts à accepter ce cessez-le-feu devront se faire connaître, ainsi que leur localisation :

    Any party engaged in military or para-military hostilities in Syria, other than “Daesh”, “Jabhat al-Nusra”, or other terrorist organizations designated by the UN Security Council will indicate to the Russian Federation or the United States, as co-chairs of the ISSG, their commitment to and acceptance of the terms for the cessation of hostilities by no later than 12:00 (Damascus time) on February 26, 2016

    On prévoit d’ailleurs d’échanger des informations et même de rédiger une sorte de carte délimitant le territoire de Da’ich, d’al-Nousra et des « autres organisations terroristes listées au CS de l’ONU ». En clair, une carte des endroits où il sera légitime de bombarder :

    The Russian Federation and United States will also work together, and with other members of the Ceasefire Task Force, as appropriate and pursuant to the ISSG decision of February 11, 2016, to delineate the territory held by “Daesh,” "Jabhat al-Nusra" and other terrorist organizations designated by the UN Security Council, which are excluded from the cessation of hostilities.

    Les points 1 et 2 de l’accord concernent respectivement la rébellion armée et le régime et ses forces associées. Ils sont quasiment symétriques et impliquent de cesser les combats avec toutes les armes, de s’interdire d’acquérir du territoire sur les autres parties liées à l’accord, d’user d’un usage proportionné de la force en cas d’opérations défensives et de permettre l’accès des « agences humanitaires » à toutes les populations dans le besoin.

  • Les Kurdes du YPG et leurs alliés des SDF ont mené une offensive à partir du quartier kurde d’Alep de Sheikh Maqsoud sous leur contrôle. Ce faisant ils ont coupé la dernière route d’approvisionnement menant d’Alep-est (sous contrôle de la rébellion) à la Turquie par le poste-frontière de Bab al-Hawa (province d’Idlib). Avec la coupure de la route du nord (par Azaz et le poste-frontière de Bab al-Salam), il y a une semaine par le régime, Alep-est qui compterait encore 20 000 habitants voit donc toutes ses routes d’approvisionnement par la Turquie coupées.


    Je n’ai pour l’instant pas trouvé d’annonce de la nouvelle à part cet article de Now Media (?) qui évoque un peu plus tôt dans la journée les combats entre le YPG et les SDF contre les groupes armés à Alep pour le contrôle de cette route, dite « Castello Highway » (route de la Citadelle) :
    https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566621-syria-kurds-ally-declares-aleppo-military-zone

    Vital rebel supply line in the balance
    Fierce clashes continued to rage overnight Tuesday around Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsood, with fighting spreading through the outskirts of the district while the Castello Highway north of the city came under heavy fire.
    Also known as “Death Road,” the Castello Highway spans the northern edges of Aleppo. Since regime forces cut off rebel supply lines leading southward into the city from Turkey, the dangerous thoroughfare has served as the only supply line into its rebel-held western sectors.
    The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported Wednesday that clashes were raging in Bustan al-Pasha to the east of Sheikh Maqsood, as well as Bani Zayed to the southeast of the district and Castello to the north.

    Certains sur les réseaux sociaux y voient la revanche du YPG aux bombardements turcs contre eux dans la poche d’Azaz. On peut aussi se demander si ce n’est pas le début du siège d’Alep-est.

    • Je viens de trouver cet article du Times (sous paywall) qui évoque la chose. Sinon ... nada.
      C’est tout de même assez déconcertant. Après la coupure de la route du nord par le régime, une bonne partie de la presse mainstream nous présentait tout Alep sous siège et complètement coupée de ses routes d’approvisionnement, alors qu’il restait la route de la Citadelle pour partir ensuite vers la Turquie à l’ouest).
      Maintenant que cette dernière route est effectivement coupée par le YPG et les SDF - probablement en coordination indirecte avec le régime - personne n’en parle !
      http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/middleeast/article4693074.ece

      Aleppo under siege as Kurds fall in with Assad
      Syria’s biggest city faced total siege last night for the first time in five years of conflict after Kurdish forces cut off the last road into rebel-held districts.
      The Kurdish YPG is reported to have advanced from the north of Aleppo to take the Castello road — the last lifeline for the 300,000 people who remain in the city’s rebel-controlled eastern neighbourhoods. Rebel fighters and activists said that the Kurdish forces and an allied Arab group, the al-Thwar army were bombarding the road and had rendered it unnusable during daylight.