Intéressante interview vidéo de Joshua Landis par Sophie Chevarnadzé sur RT (en anglais) qui pointe les nombreuses contradictions de la politique américaine en Syrie :
US in stupor, doesn’t know what to do or even what it wants in Syria - MidEast studies academic
▻https://www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/321020-syrian-peace-talk-conflict
Le transcript de l’interview sur le site de Landis :
►http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/regime-change-without-state-collapse-is-impossible-in-syria-landis-int
Extraits :
SS: Assad has agreed to take part in early elections – can Syria in its current state hold the vote? Can there be a vote before Islamic State is beaten?
JL: First, Syria is in such terrible physical state and so many people have been forced from their homes or left the country that it would be almost impossible to have fair elections. Secondly, and more importantly perhaps, it is hard for anyone to believe that the outcome would be different from the elections held in the past 45 years? All ended up with a 99% vote for the President. There’s such distrust between all sides. Nobody puts much faith in the idea of elections. Most people understand that lurking beneath the question of elections is another question: “Can the Assad regime stay or not?” Now that Russia has intervened on the side of Assad, it’s quite clear the Assad regime is staying and will stay. How the West is going to accommodate itself to this fact is not yet clear.
SS: The Western-backed FSA commander Ahmad Sa’oud told AP: “What we care about is Assad leaving, not turning this from a war against the regime to a war against terrorism”. So, they don’t really care about the fight against Islamic State as well…
JL: You’re right. Most actors in Syria have other priorities besides destroying the Islamic State. Almost all rebel groups insist on destroying Assad before the Islamic State. They refuse to be drawn into what they call a “sahwa.” They do not want to become “agents of America” and so forth. The vast majority want nothing to do with the fight against ISIS before they have defeated Assad. Many members of the Coalition that are fighting ISIS also have other priorities. That is a big problem for both for the Russians and for the U.S. Indeed, the US has other priorities as well. We saw in Palmyra, Deir ez-Zor and elsewhere, the US would not attack ISIS if it believed Assad and his military would benefit. It preferred to have ISIS take Palmyra than to be seen to be helping Assad.
[...]
SS: Does the U.S. have enough influence over the opposition they’re backing to make them agree to a political process in Syria?
JL: No. That’s the short answer.
SS: So people who represent the opposition in peace talks, are they controlling forces on the ground?
JL: No, they’re not. The strongest militias in Syria are the more extreme and more Salafist militias. The Islamists have a real ideology to sell; they are the militias who have national reach and representation in all provinces of Syria. The US backs the weakest militias in Syria. They are the non-ideological militias and are extremely local. For the most part, they are composed of clan and tribal leaders. They may hold sway over a village or two; they may command a thousand men, perhaps two thousand, but not more than that. The Islamic militants, such as Al-Qaeda, Ahrar ash-Sham, ISIS and the Islamic Army, have purchase over a broad segment of Syrian society that stretches from north to south. The US refuses to deal with Islamist militias. It insists on dealing only with the weaker ones, which operate with some independence, but in many cases have to defer to the tougher and stronger Islamist militias that hold sway in most parts of Syria.
The sham Syrian peace conference
▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/sham-syrian-peace-conference-150334617
Secretary of State John Kerry suggested in an interview with Kazak TV channel a few days after the Vienna conference had convened that “the way to end the war is to ask Mr Assad to help with a transition into a new government”. Russia failed to do so, and instead “is there to simply support the Assad regime,” Kerry said, adding that “the opposition will not stop fighting Assad”.
It is doubtful that Kerry mistakes such a patently propagandistic position for the much more intractable Syrian political-military realities. But it is not politically convenient to acknowledge those realities. That would invite unwanted questions about the administration’s decision in 2011 to align its policy with the Syria hawks in Riyadh, Doha and Istanbul who were so bent on regime change in Syria that they were not only indifferent to the jihadist buildup in Syria but saw it as a useful tool for getting rid of Assad.
Now the price of Obama’s fateful political-diplomatic strategy is a sham peace conference that misleads the rest of the world about the lack of any realistic solution to the war.
U.S. Weaponry Is Turning Syria Into Proxy War With Russia - The New York Times
▻http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/world/middleeast/syria-russia-airstrikes.html?smid=tw-nytimesworld&smtyp=cur&_r=1
“By bombing us, Russia is bombing the 13 ‘Friends of Syria’ countries,” he said, referring to the group of the United States and its allies that called for the ouster of Mr. Assad after his crackdown on political protests in 2011.
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The C.I.A. program that delivered the TOWs (an acronym for tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided missiles) is separate from — and significantly larger than — the failed $500 million Pentagon program that was canceled last week after it trained only a handful of fighters. That was unsuccessful largely because few recruits would agree to its goal of fighting only the militant Islamic State and not Mr. Assad.
Rebel commanders scoffed when asked about reports of the delivery of 500 TOWs from Saudi Arabia, saying it was an insignificant number compared with what is available. Saudi Arabia in 2013 ordered more than 13,000 of them. Given that American weapons contracts require disclosure of the “end user,” insurgents said they were being delivered with Washington’s approval.
Equally graphic videos of new Russian firepower have been posted by pro-government fighters and journalists embedded with them.
Russian attack helicopters swoop low over fields, seemingly close enough to touch, then veer upward to unleash barrages of rockets, flares and heavy machine-gun fire. Explosions pepper distant villages, with smoke rising over clusters of houses as narrators declare progress against “terrorists.”
They appear to be using techniques honed in Afghanistan, where the occupying Soviet Army fought insurgents who were eventually supplied with antiaircraft missiles by the United States. Some of those insurgents later began Al Qaeda.
Too Weak, Too Strong
▻http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n21/patrick-cockburn/too-weak-too-strong
.... a Russian air support won’t be enough to defeat IS and the other al-Qaida-type groups, because years of fighting the US, Iraqi and Syrian armies has given their fighters formidable military expertise. Tactics include multiple co-ordinated attacks by suicide bombers, sometimes driving armoured trucks that carry several tons of explosives, as well as the mass use of IEDs and booby traps. IS puts emphasis on prolonged training as well as religious teaching; its snipers are famous for remaining still for hours as they search for a target. IS acts like a guerrilla force, relying on surprise and diversionary attacks to keep its enemies guessing.
[...]
The Russian intervention in Syria, the greater involvement of Iran and the Shia powers, and the rise of the Syrian Kurds has not yet changed the status quo in Iraq and Syria, though it has the potential to do so. The Russian presence makes Turkish military intervention against the Kurds and the government in Damascus less likely. But the Russians, the Syrian army and their allies need to win a serious victory – such as capturing the rebel-held half of Aleppo – if they are to transform the civil war. Assad won’t want his experienced combat units to be caught up in the sort of street-by-street fighting described by the wounded soldiers in the hospitals. On the other hand, the Russian air campaign has an advantage over that of the Americans in that it has been launched in support of an effective regular army.
Moon of alabama se fait l’écho des suspicions autour de l’attaque conjointe d’al-Nusra et Da3ish, à partir de points différents de la mohafaza de Hama, pour bloquer la route Khanasser-Alep tenue par le régime et qui permet d’approvisionner les quartiers d’Alep sous contrôle gouvernemental.
Cette attaque a-t-elle été coordonnée entre ces deux groupes désormais rivaux, comme cela est déjà arrivé par le passé (au camp de Yarmouk par exemple) ?
Pourquoi les Américains ont-ils cessé leurs bombardements de Da3ich à l’est à ce moment-là ce qui lui a permis de déplacer des troupes de Raqqa pour cette attaque ?
▻http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/10/us-stopped-syria-air-strikes-while-nusra-and-is-prepared-attack-on-go
The closed supply route led to hardship for the nearly two million people in the government held parts of Aleppo as prices for produce and gasoline exploded.
The operations room in Damascus where Syria, Iran, Russia and Hizbullah coordinate the intelligence and operations in Syria suspects that the attack on the supply corridor was coordinated at a higher level than just between Nusra and the Islamic State.
The total cessation of U.S. air attacks on east Syria allowed the Islamic State to move hundreds of fighters and heavy equipment like tanks and cannons from its stronghold in Raqqa city to the west of Syria. At the same time Jabhat al-Nusra brought hundreds of fighters from other fronts south-eastward for its part of the attack. It is difficult to believe that these were just unrelated coincidences.
Edward Dark, pseudonyme d’un alépin, dans un intéressant article - qui mérite d’être lu in extenso - où est brossé un tableau pessimiste de la situation actuelle depuis l’implication directe des Russes, aussi bien géopolitique (critiquant à la fois la stratégie russe et occidentale) que de la survie au quotidien des Syriens, évoque brièvement cette question :
▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/flawed-prescription-peace-syria-more-war-272837545
Already significant gains by government forces and local and foreign-supporting paramilitary militias in south Aleppo on long frozen fronts, have been met with an unprecedented “unspoken alliance” between rival jihadi groups. It seems they’ve put aside their differences for now, and have coordinated an attack on the only supply route to government-controlled Aleppo city, effectively besieging around two million people and cutting off military supplies to the ongoing offensive there.
As ISIS launched suicide car bombs and captured parts of the long road, various rebel factions lead by al-Nusra attempted to cut off the route at the entrance to Aleppo. This unprecedented coordination between former sworn jihadi enemies is an ominous harbinger of what may come as a result of Russian intervention, but only time will tell if those fickle alliances will hold and morph into a “super jihadi” merger in the face of a shared existential threat.
En passant Dark rappelle ce qui est un secret honteux que partagent les différents diplomates. Si certains insistent tellement sur un calendrier de départ d’Assad, depuis qu’il est admis qu’il devra faire partie d’une éventuelle période de transition, tandis que d’autres insistent sur le fait que seuls les Syriens doivent pouvoir en décider, c’est que dans la situation actuelle, si des élections régulières étaient menées, Assad les gagnerait probablement :
A flurry of diplomacy and hastily convened meetings have failed to reach any consensus on the way forward in Syria, the major sticking point as usual being the impasse over the fate of Assad. Moscow would like to see him lead a transitional period and then run in elections, which he stands a good chance of winning. But given the fractured social and territorial state of Syria and the ongoing instability and violence, a free and representative ballot is next to impossible. The powerful backers of his opponents and various insurgent groups want to see him leave immediately or after a very short time, either way they envision no future for him in Syria.
Tulsi Gabbard: CIA Must Stop Illegal, Counterproductive War to Overthrow Assad
▻https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7Q8X60KQ9Q
Speaking with Wolf Blitzer on CNN, Tulsi explains why the US allying with Islamist extremists to overthrow Syrian President Assad is an illegal, counterproductive war that will cause even more human misery in the region and help ISIS and other Islamist extremists take over all of Syria. Instead of once again being distracted by trying to get rid of a secular dictator, Tulsi explains, the US must stay out of counter productive wars and focus on defeating the Islamist extremists who have declared war on America.
Syrie : les efforts de paix de la Russie prennent de l’envergurePar M.K. Bhadrakumar. Article publié le 26 octobre 2015 dans AsiaTimesOnline : Syria : Russia’s peace efforts acquire gravitas. traduit par Jean-François Goulon - 26 octobre 2015
▻http://blogs.mediapart.fr/blog/jean-francois-goulon/261015/syrie-les-efforts-de-paix-de-la-russie-prennent-de-l-envergure
La soudaine visite, dimanche, du Secrétaire d’Etat américain John Kerry en Arabie Saoudite et sa rencontre avec le Roi Salman dans son ranch à l’extérieur de Riyad peuvent être considérées comme une suite rapide de la conversation téléphonique qu’il a eue la veille avec son homologue russe Sergueï Lavrov.
Lavrov a pris l’initiative d’appeler Kerry au téléphone, suite à la réunion de vendredi qu’ils ont eue à Vienne, en compagnie de leurs homologues turc et saoudien. Lavrov s’est également entretenu au téléphone, samedi, avec ses homologues iranien et égyptien.
Il est évident que Lavrov et Kerry sont engagés dans ce qui semble de plus en plus un effort combiné qui se renforce mutuellement en vue d’étayer un plan de paix qui puisse être accepté par les acteurs extérieurs alignés avec eux, même si tous ne sont pas en phase par rapport à eux, ainsi que par les parties syriennes concernées. Il se pourrait que ce soit Lavrov le cerveau dans cette affaire, mais la priorité de Moscou est de travailler autant que possible avec Washington dans la mesure où les Américains y sont prêts – le terrain d’entente s’élargit progressivement – plutôt que de vouloir à tout prix démontrer sa supériorité.
Les contours d’un plan de paix, aujourd’hui en lambeaux, pourraient émerger de ces consultations mouvementées. Prenez en considération les déclarations suivantes faites par le Président Vladimir Poutine, jeudi dernier à Sotchi (à la veille de la réunion de Vienne entre Kerry et Lavrov) :
Je suis sûr que les opérations militaires russes [en Syrie] auront l’effet positif nécessaire sur la situation, en aidant les autorités syriennes à créer les conditions des actions ultérieures pour parvenir à un règlement politique.
Voici ce que nous croyons devoir faire pour soutenir un règlement à long-terme […] Tout d’abord, libérer les territoires syrien et irakien des terroristes […] Et pour le faire, nous devons joindre toutes les forces – les armées syrienne et irakienne, la milice kurde, divers groupes d’opposition qui ont vraiment apporté une contribution réelle dans la lutte contre les terroristes – et coordonner les actions des pays, à l’intérieur comme à l’extérieur de cette région, contre le terrorisme.
Deuxièmement, une victoire militaire contre les seuls partisans de la lutte armée […] créera les conditions pour la chose principale, à savoir le commencement d’un processus politique avec la participation de toutes les forces patriotiques saines de la société syrienne […] L’effondrement du gouvernement syrien ne fera que mobiliser les terroristes. Dans l’immédiat, au lieu de saper les autorités syriennes, nous devons les renforcer, les raviver, en renforçant les institutions de l’Etat dans la zone de conflit.
Bien sûr, les dirigeants syriens doivent établir des contacts de travail avec ces forces de l’opposition qui sont prêtes au dialogue. Telle que je comprends la réunion [que j’ai eue mardi] avec le Président Assad […], il est prêt à un tel dialogue. »
Joshua Landis estime que 60 à 80% des armes livrées par les États-Unis en Syrie ont terminé dans les mains d’Al Qaeda et ses affiliés.
Officials : CIA-backed Syrian rebels under Russian blitz
▻http://bigstory.ap.org/article/dfe1547ba36f4f968deee227d467dc08/officials-russian-bombs-cia-rebels-had-syrian-gains
For years, the CIA effort had foundered — so much so that over the summer, some in Congress proposed cutting its budget. Some CIA-supported rebels had been captured; others had defected to extremist groups. The secret CIA program is the only way the U.S. is taking on Assad militarily. In public, the United States has focused its efforts on fighting IS and urging Assad to leave office voluntarily.
“Probably 60 to 80 percent of the arms that America shoveled in have gone to al-Qaida and its affiliates,” said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma.
A Way Forward for Obama and Putin in Syria
▻http://time.com/4061276/syria-russia-u-s
The P5+1 format would require that the U.S. put aside the condition that Assad must step down prior to or as a result of the settlement talks. In fact, recent U.S. statements suggest there is some flexibility in the U.S. position on this issue. U.S. willingness to stop insisting on Assad’s departure and agree to address this issue in the future would open the possibility of creating a real coalition to defeat ISIL and a political solution for the Syrian war, which are the key U.S. goals, shared by Russia, Iran, Europe and—yes—Assad.
Other parties to the conflict—Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other Persian Gulf States—may complain about Iran’s role and Assad remaining in power for now. But in all the years of the war in Syria, they have offered no solution to the crisis, and no way to stop the bloodshed. They should have a voice, but they should not be in a position to block the talks.
Finally, for the Syrians themselves, the P5+1 involvement would offer the reassurance of the international community’s support and involvement in any future settlement in Syria. For the beleaguered Syrian opposition, it would be a commitment by the P5+1 countries that they will not be abandoned to the mercy of Assad’s troops after the conflict is over. For Assad and his supporters, Russia’s and Iran’s presence would serve as a reassurance and hold out the possibility of an orderly transition instead of a defeat or endless conflict.
This is neither the perfect nor a guaranteed solution to the Syrian war. But insisting on the perfect and ignoring the good is not an option while thousands of Syrians are dying.
Democracy without the state
Jonas Staal builds parliament in northern-Syria
Metropolis M » Features » Democracy without the state
▻http://metropolism.com/features/democracy-without-the-state
Jonas Staal:
The reason for being here is a collaboration with the Democratic Self-Administration of Rojava and the artistic and political organization New World Summit, that I founded in 2012. Together we are building a new public parliament in the Rojava region and organizing two international summits. It is through the New World Summit that the collaboration with the Democratic Self-Administration came about and that the members of my organization have been welcomed here three times since 2014.
To give some context to this region: “Rojava” means “West” in Kurdish, and refers to the western part of Kurdistan – many people tend to refer to it as northern-Syria. The Syrian civil war in 2011 forced Assad to concentrate his army to the south of the country and left behind a power vacuum in the north. Kurdish revolutionaries took this momentum to reclaim their land and, in collaboration with peoples from the region such as Arabs and Assyrians, to declare their political autonomy in the form of “democratic confederalism.” This process is known today as the “Rojava Revolution.” In the democratic model that came as a result notions such as self-governance, gender equality and communalism take a central role. The revolutionary Abdullah Öcalan, who has been imprisoned by Turkey since 1999, describes this model as “democracy without the state.” Essentially: stateless democracy.
The New World Summit consists of different people, such as researcher and producer Younes Bouadi, programmer Renée In der Maur, architect Paul Kuipers, photographer Ernie Buts and designer Remco van Bladel. Together, we have been developing for several years parliaments for stateless political organizations, amongst others in Berlin (2012) and Brussels (2014). These parliaments consist of large scale architectural constructions in which we so far were able to facilitate representatives of more than thirty stateless political organizations from all over the world, such as the Basque Country, Azawad, Somaliland, Baluchistan, West-Papua and Tamil Eelam. We believe the sphere of art is that of the imaginary, a space where we can develop new models of political representation and performative practices of politics.
The Kurdish movement has been involved in this process since the very beginning: especially the women’s movement that inspired the philosophies of Öcalan and practices the ideals of stateless democracy to its outer consequences was very important in this process. Revolutionaries such as Sakine Cansiz, murder in Paris in 2013, rejected the idea of the nation-state as a patriarchal construct, inherently intertwined with the doctrine of global capitalism. With Öcalan, the women’s movement concluded that for a stateless people confronted with colonialism and occupation the nation-state can never be a solution, but forms the essential problem.
The New World Summit always aimed to be a parliament for a stateless democracy, not limited to a specific territory, ethnicity or notion of statehood. This idea is indebted to the vision of the Kurdish movement, and our contributors Rojda Yildirim, Dilar Dirik, Adem Uzun, Havin Güne?er en Dil?ah Osman in specific. It is their political vision made possible a new artistic vision that we as the New World Summit try to realize through our parliaments.
C’est l’#arbre_à_palabres ? #démocratie
▻http://metropolism.com/features/democracy-without-the-state/resources/001.jpg?version=a96764efea7f7099ae8b705e9690b266
Syrie : l’EI appelle au jihad contre la Russie et les Etats-Unis - Libération
▻http://www.liberation.fr/monde/2015/10/13/les-jihadistes-d-al-qaida-en-syrie-et-de-l-ei-menacent-la-russie_1403458
Sur les lignes de front, des groupes rebelles non islamistes ont affirmé mardi avoir reçu des Etats-Unis des missiles antichars TOW qui leur permettent de contrer l’avancée des troupes du régime dans les provinces de Hama (centre) et Idleb (nord-ouest).
U.S. Weaponry Is Turning Syria Into Proxy War With Russia - The New York Times
▻http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/world/middleeast/syria-russia-airstrikes.html
Even in smaller quantities, the missiles played a major role in the insurgent advances that eventually endangered Mr. Assad’s rule. While that would seem like a welcome development for United States policy makers, in practice it presented another quandary, given that the Nusra Front was among the groups benefiting from the enhanced firepower.
Putin Says U.S. Fails to Cooperate in Syria - The New York Times
▻http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/world/europe/putin-complains-about-us-cooperation-on-syria.html
Russian and U.S. Airstrikes Show Differing Goals
Both countries have said they want to defeat terrorist groups like the Islamic State, but in Syria, Russia’s definition of terrorist encompasses some groups that are allies of the United States.
En haut les bombardements russes, en bas ceux étasuniens, Les « zones rebelles » sont en jaune :
US Arms Shipments Fuel Proxy War With Russia Over Syria — News from Antiwar.com
▻http://news.antiwar.com/2015/10/13/us-arms-shipments-fuel-proxy-war-with-russia-over-syria
So the US strategy in Syria is shifting once again, initially focused on regime change, then focused on destroying ISIS, and now, having given up more or less on both of those, they just want to see Russia fail, and the administration seems comfortable with the possibility that US-made weapons will be destroying Russian tanks and helicopters.
This proxy war is also bringing the US closer to a de facto alliance with al-Qaeda, as the efforts to undermine Russia run squarely through al-Qaeda-held Idlib, and “stopping” Russia at this point means further consolidating al-Qaeda control over northwest Syria.
«groupes rebelles non islamistes» Y’en a encore? Des infos? Si possible.
Gareth Porter:
▻http://original.antiwar.com/porter/2015/10/16/obama-wont-admit-the-real-targets-of-russian-airstrikes
Sly never refers to the “Army of Conquest” victory in Idlib or acknowledges that al-Nusra Front was the main benefactor of the CIA program. Her story quotes a proponent of the program, former US ambassador Robert Ford, as assuring us that the system prevented the missiles from “falling into extremist hands,” and that he was aware of only two TOW missiles having been obtained by al-Nusra.
Sly reported a very different story in March, however, after the dissolution of Harakat Hazm, the main CIA-supported “moderate rebel group” remaining in the north, following its complete defeat by al-Nusra Front. The victorious al-Nusra announced publicly, according to Sly’s report, that it had seized the TOW antitank missiles the CIA had supplied to Harakat Hazm when it occupied the groups headquarters near Aleppo. Moreover, the Saudis reportedly had ownership of TOW missiles, and they and the Qataris had already been funneling arms to al-Nusra Front, as Vice-President Joe Biden revealed in October 2014.
It is astonishing that at this late date, anyone in the media could still be seriously suggesting that the CIA somehow managed to turn the “moderate” Syrian rebels into a powerful offensive force threatening the Assad regime in the north. Since the Idlib victory, it is generally understood that the primary threat to drive the Assad regime from power comes from al-Nusra Front and the forces allied with it, and not from the Islamic State – and certainly not the mythical “moderate rebels”.
It is easy to understand why the Obama administration is not interested in talking about the role of al-Nusra in the present Syrian political-military situation. According to Sly’s source, the covert operation to provide the TOW missiles to the Army of Conquest was aimed at putting “sufficient pressure on Assad’s forces to persuade him to compromise but not so much that his government would precipitously collapse and leave a dangerous power vacuum”.
The Obama administration strategy on Syria assumed a degree of control that is so obviously unrealistic that it was inherently risky to the point of recklessness. That is why no one in the administration or the news media is discussing the reality that the Russian offensive is targeting the biggest jihadist threat to the Assad regime.
EXCLUSIVE: Russian jets ’intercept’ US predator drones over Syria, officials say | Fox News
▻http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/07/exclusive-russian-jets-intercept-us-predator-drones-over-syria-officials-sa
Russian fighter jets shadowed U.S. predator drones on at least three separate occasions high above Syria since the start of Russia’s air campaign last week, according to two U.S. officials briefed on this latest intelligence from the region.
Meanwhile, U.S. Navy Captain Jeff Davis told reporters a U.S. aircraft flying over Syria had to be rerouted to avoid a Russian fighter jet at least once.
“We have taken action to maintain safe separation,” Davis said, adding that the U.S. aircraft “changed path a little bit.” He did not disclose which type of U.S. aircraft was involved.
U.S. officials tell Fox News the drone encounters took place over ISIS-controlled Syria, including its de facto headquarters in Raqqa, as well as along the Turkish-Syrian border near Korbani. Another occurred in the northwest, near the highly contested city of Aleppo.
“The first time it happened, we thought the Russians got lucky. Then it happened two more times,” said one official.
Et l’on reparle du #sandjak_d'Alexandrette
“The Russians flew along the border and we still don’t know for sure what happened.”
At least one of the alleged incidences occurred in Turkey’s Hatay Province.
In 1939, land belonging to Syria and the Assad family in the northwest, along the Mediterranean bordering Latakia where the Russia has established an air base, was annexed by Turkey. Syria has never recognized the action and the two countries have been bitter enemies ever since.
« land belonging to Syria and the Assad family in the northwest » : première fois que j’entends cette histoier de terrain appartenant à la famille Assad dans ce coin-là. Quelqu’un en sait plus ?
Oui, ça m’a assez stupéfait : voilà que l’annexion du sandjak d’Alexandrette devient une spoliation privée de la famille Assad…
En même temps, c’est Fox News. Ce doit être la même source que pour les no-go zones parisiennes ;-)
Saudi Arabia Could Be the Key to America’s ’Russia in Syria’ Problem | The National Interest
▻http://nationalinterest.org/feature/saudi-arabia-could-be-the-key-americas-russia-syria-problem-14018
Russia’s decision to plunge forward with airstrikes in Syria despite U.S. warnings presents Washington with uncomfortable choices. If Russian strikes succeed in degrading the Syrian opposition, regional actors will increasingly look to Moscow as an influential power broker, crippling our efforts to isolate Russia for its actions in Ukraine and beyond. If Russian operations bog down and Assad’s regime falters, ISIS or other violent extremists will fill the vacuum of power in Syria.
Escaping from this conundrum is still possible, however. Immediate engagement to advance a compromise political settlement in Syria is our best option for stemming the flow of refugees and regaining a U.S. leadership role. And the keys to such a settlement may be in Saudi Arabia.
Why the U.S. Owns the Rise of Islamic State and the Syria Disaster
▻http://www.truthdig.com/report/print/why_the_us_owns_the_rise_of_islamic_state_and_the_syria_disaster_20151008
By November 2012, al-Qaida’s Syrian franchise, al-Nusra Front, had 6,000 to 10,000 troops—mostly foreign fighters—under its command and was regarded as the most disciplined and effective fighting force in the field. The CIA’s Gulf allies armed brigades that had allied themselves with al-Nusra—or were ready to do so. A Qatari intelligence officer is said to have declared, “I will send weapons to al-Qaeda if it will help” topple Assad.
The #CIA officials overseeing the covert operation knew very well what their Sunni allies were doing. After the U.S. shipments from Benghazi stopped in September 2012 because of the attack on the U.S. diplomatic post there, a CIA analysis reminded President Obama that the covert operation in Afghanistan had ended up creating a Frankenstein monster. Even the now-famous account in Hillary Clinton’s 2014 memoirs about Obama rejecting a proposal in late 2012 from CIA Director Petraeus for arming and training Syrian rebels does not hide the fact that everyone was well aware of the danger that arms sent to “moderates” would end up in the hands of terrorists.
Despite this, after rejecting Petraeus’ plan in 2012, Obama approved the covert training of “moderate” Syrian rebels in April 2013. As the Pentagon has been forced to acknowledge in recent weeks, that program has been a complete fiasco, as the units either joined al-Nusra or were attacked by al-Nusra. Meanwhile, as Vice President Joe Biden pointed out in October 2014, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were pouring “hundreds of millions of dollars and tens, thousands of tons of weapons” into Syria that were ending up in the hands of the jihadists.
Trying to follow what is going on in Syria and why? This comic will get you there in 5 minutes.
▻http://www.upworthy.com/trying-to-follow-what-is-going-on-in-syria-and-why-this-comic-will-get-you
▻https://upw-prod-images.global.ssl.fastly.net/nugget/5399d5859bc8bb0096000020/07-7a724a77dc98f824c231f2b3798ef275.jpg?ixlib=rb-
That warning has become a global alert. Since the uprising against Assad in March 2011, over 240,000 people have been killed, 4 million Syrians have fled their country, and over 7 million have been displaced.
The headlines are full of the heartbreaking stories of these refugees — including young children — who have died trying to reach safety in other countries. The story of these refugees is deeply tied to the effects of climate change.
“We are experiencing a surprising uptick in global insecurity ... partially due to our inability to manage climate stress.” That’s how Columbia University professor Marc Levy (who also does studies for the U.S. government) summed it up.
What’s happening in Syria and across Europe is part of a larger story that affects us all.
syrie #bd #conflit #sécheresse #climat #moyen-orient
What Is Russia Bombing in Syria? - Syria in Crisis - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
▻http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=61493
Syrian dissidents now rush to blame Putin for every airstrike in the country, but evidence is often lacking. Identifying which specific attacks can be attributed to Russian pilots is made more difficult by the fact that Assad’s air force operates in the same airspace, aided by Russian reconnaissance. While Putin has upheld at least some pretense of distinguishing the radical jihadis from other insurgent factions, Assad makes no distinction at all among the armed groups opposing him.
It is hard to tell a Syrian strike from a Russian strike, not least because both nations use similar or even identical equipment. Russian-made jets and helicopters, including Su-24 fighter-bombers and Mi-24 helicopters, have been deployed in Syrian skies by both Assad and Putin. But the Russian expeditionary force also includes more advanced Sukhoi models (Su-25, Su-30, and Su-34), which are not known to be in Assad’s inventory. So if these planes were used in a particular airstrike, chances are they were Russian-piloted.
Ken Roth te rappelle les fondamentaux : nos bombardements ne sont rien comparés aux bombardements de nos ennemis
▻https://twitter.com/kenroth/status/650441825396879361
Kunduz attack is awful, but recall that Assad attacks hospitals deliberately all the time.
▻http://bit.ly/1ObwFvQ
Seeing through the darkness - Israel News, Ynetnews
▻http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4701111,00.html
Intéressant voyage dans la mentalité d’assiégés de nombres d’Israéliens. L’ennemi est partout et terrible (surtout quand il est chiite). Morcaux choisis.
In contrast to Assad regime’s dream of capturing the Golan, the Iranian players – Soleimani and Khamenei – dream of destroying Israel through a long and daunting war of attrition, a campaign consisting of unrelenting terror attacks and missile fire that will physically and psychologically exhaust Israel’s citizens, causing them to flee to Europe or America.
Alongside the Iranian threat we have that posed by radical Sunni Islam, which also aims to destroy Israel through a continuous campaign, but has postponed the campaign until they can claim victory over their Shi’ite rivals and secular Arab rulers.
The IDF is preparing for exactly these scenarios.
From the Israeli point of view, there are three types of people on the other side of the fence in the Golan: True enemy actors, potential enemy actors, and potential partners.
The true enemy actors are those who prescribe to radical Shia Islam, which is led by Iran: The Syrian Army, Hezbollah, Palestinian groups, Syrian militias – including every armed minority loyal to Assad.
(...) The potential enemy actors are all the organizations and groups devoted to militant Sunni Islam, Salafist jihadism, or partake in the global jihad movement. Some of them are already present in the Syrian Golan, including the Nusra Front, which is a Syrian Al-Qaeda affiliate, and Shuhada Al Yarmouk, which acts on behalf of ISIS.
(...) The third category – the potential partners – includes the uninvolved residents of the Syrian Golan, the secular rebels, the FSA, local militias, and members of the Druze, Christian and Circassian communities.
(...)
Projection (psychanalyse)
▻https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projection_%28psychanalyse%29
La projection désigne un mécanisme de défense introduit par Freud dans le langage de la psychanalyse. Le terme est devenu très général en psychologie et en psychiatrie. Il désigne l’opération mentale (généralement inconsciente) par laquelle une personne place sur quelqu’un d’autre ses propres sentiments, dans le but de se sortir d’une situation émotionnelle vécue comme intolérable par elle. La personne n’a généralement pas conscience d’appliquer ce mécanisme, justement car elle n’accepte pas les sentiments, ou sensations, qu’elle « projette » sur l’autre. Il s’agit donc généralement de sentiments négatifs, ou en tout cas, perçus comme tels
Le discours politique de nombre d’israéliens est aisément traduisible avec, en tête, cette définition qui se résume aussi par le : « c’est sui qui l’dit qui y’est » des cours de l’école primaire.
La Russie poursuit ses bombardements en Syrie
▻http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/article/2015/10/01/les-frappes-russes-en-syrie-nouvelle-etape-du-conflit_4779065_3218.html
L’accélération de l’engagement de Moscou, à la demande expresse du régime de Damas, s’inscrit sur fond de bras de fer entre MM. Obama et Poutine sur le sort à réserver à M. Assad, « tyran », pour le premier, et rempart contre l’EI, pour le second.
Ça fait au moins un des « frappeurs » qui dispose d’un mandat pour le faire…
Au passage, troisième version du titre, après
Les frappes russes en Syrie, nouvelle étape du conflit
et
Selon l’OTAN, les frappes russes n’étaient pas dirigées contre l’EI
Et ce qui est épatant, c’est que les éléments de langage sont bien repris à l’identique par tous les sites de presse. Une telle uniformité force à l’admiration.
Tiens je remarquais que l’huma avait changé « bombardement » par « frappe » pour les opérations françaises (▻http://seenthis.net/messages/412639#message412694), et là le Monde fait l’inverse pour la Russie
#propagande #médias #russophobie
(edit j’avais pas vu que tu le reportais déjà, mais j’ai fait une capture alors ça passe)
Depuis l’intervention russe, se propage un bombardement médiatique inouïe - Poutine à raison de dire qu’il y aura une guerre de l’information-
Combien des dindons vont encore gober les leçons de Hollande, qui annonce, péremptoire : " c’est DAESH qu’il faut frapper" Suite au "doutes" assénés et répétés depuis 2 jours.
Ces types n’ont aucune honte : Pouvons-nous leur demander de la fermer un peu, et d’agir autrement qu’en soutenant les terroristes ? Terroristes qu’ils ont
«oublié»
de frapper, par exemple, quand ils ont traversé 200kms de désert, pour aller prendre Palmyre !!!
Personne n’a vu !!!
ils ont du passer par un tunnel !!!
Sieffert s’est fendu d’un nouvel edito. Je n’ai pas pu terminer ! Aussitôt j’ai pensé à Samir Geagea !
Ne me dites pas qu’il sont copains.
Arrêtez les rotatives : les Ricains n’arrivent pas à en trouver plus de quelques poignées, mais Charles Lister, lui, les a trouvés : rien moins que 100.000 rebelles modérés en Syrie !
▻http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34371501
While this may not necessarily seem illogical to a casual observer, it ignores the fact that well over 100,000 Syrian men currently fighting the Assad regime have sworn to do so until he is removed from power.
Et tant qu’on y est, ne jamais abandonner une bonne #théorie_du_complot :
From the very first days of the revolution, Assad and his intelligence apparatus have consistently facilitated the rise of jihadists. This policy of aiding and abetting jihadist militants and manipulating them for Damascus’ policy interests is a well-established Assad family practice, dating back at least to the 1990s.
By releasing dozens of al-Qaeda prisoners in mid-2011, Assad helped give birth to a thriving Islamist insurgency, including an al-Qaeda affiliate. By then adopting a deliberate policy of not targeting IS, Assad directly facilitated that group’s recovery and explosion into the transnational “Caliphate” movement it claims to be today.
Évidemment, ce genre de fantaisie permet d’arriver à cette conclusion atroce : « the world is now in need of real leadership » :
Ever since Syrians took to the streets in March 2011, the Western response has been both feeble and noncommittal, but the world is now in need of real leadership.
Syrie : possibles « domaines de coopération » avec Moscou | Laurent BARTHELEMY, Cécile FEUILLATRE | AFP
24 septembre 2015
▻http://www.lapresse.ca/international/etats-unis/201509/24/01-4903557-syrie-possibles-domaines-de-cooperation-avec-moscou.php
Assad de nouveau fréquentable ?
Le chef de la diplomatie française Laurent Fabius réunit jeudi soir à Paris ses homologues britannique Philip Hammond, allemand Frank Walter Steinmeier et la chef de la diplomatie européenne Federica Mogherini pour un dîner de travail consacré à la Syrie.
« L’idée est de clarifier un peu les positions, de savoir ce que les uns et les autres entendent par une transition politique en Syrie, de faire émerger une position européenne commune avant l’Assemblée générale de l’ONU », explique une source diplomatique française.
Cette rencontre survient au lendemain de déclarations remarquées de la chancelière allemande Angela Merkel, qui a estimé pour la première fois publiquement qu’il fallait parler avec Bachar al-Assad pour résoudre la crise syrienne.
« Il faut parler avec de nombreux acteurs, et cela implique (Bachar al) Assad, mais il y en a d’autres », a dit Mme Merkel, citant également les alliés de Damas, la Russie et l’Iran.
Farouche ennemi d’Assad, le président turc Recep Tayyip Erdogan a aussi concédé jeudi que le président syrien pourrait faire partie d’une période de transition.
« Bachar al-Assad ne peut représenter l’avenir d’un peuple et d’un pays qu’il a martyrisés », a réitéré jeudi le Français Laurent Fabius, qui cependant ne pose plus son départ comme préalable à une négociation politique.
Washington et Londres non plus, depuis quelque temps : le secrétaire d’État américain John Kerry et son homologue Philip Hammond ont estimé mi-septembre qu’Assad devait partir mais que le calendrier était « négociable ».
EI : la Russie pourrait mener des frappes unilatérales
24.09.2015
▻http://fr.sputniknews.com/international/20150924/1018365500.html
La Russie envisage la possibilité d’effectuer des frappes aériennes unilatérales contre l’EI en Syrie, si les Etats-Unis rejettent une proposition visant à coordonner leurs actions avec Moscou, rapporte l’agence Bloomberg.
Parallèlement, selon Bloomberg, qui cite des sources proches du Kremlin et du ministère russe de la Défense, Moscou préférerait que le gouvernement américain accepte d’allier ses forces avec la Russie, l’Iran et l’armée syrienne afin de lutter contre Daech.
« La Russie estime que le bon sens prévaudra et qu’Obama acceptera la main tendue par Vladimir Poutine. Mais la Russie agira de toute façon, même si cela ne se produit pas », a déclaré à Bloomberg la spécialiste du Moyen-Orient à l’Institut russe d’études stratégiques, Elena Souponina.
Selon une source anonyme à Washington, les Etats-Unis seraient prêts à discuter de la coordination des attaques afin d’éviter des incidents avec des avions russes, mais ils n’ont pas encore reçu une proposition « concrète » de Moscou. En outre, la coalition n’envisage pas la possibilité de coopérer avec les troupes d’Assad, ajoute la source.
Auparavant, le président russe avait déclaré qu’il serait nécessaire d’unir les efforts afin de lutter non seulement contre le terrorisme, mais également contre d’autres problèmes urgents et croissants, à savoir le problème des réfugiés.
“““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““““
Putin plans air strikes in Syria if no U.S. deal reached - Bloomberg
World | Thu Sep 24, 2015
▻http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/09/24/mideast-crisis-russia-airstrikes-idINKCN0RO01420150924
Jaysh al-Islam déclare la guerre aux Russes qui combattent en Syrie - Dania Akkad -
24 septembre 2015
▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/fr/reportages/jaysh-al-islam-d-clare-la-guerre-aux-russes-qui-combattent-en-syrie-1
Jaysh al-Islam, l’un des plus importants groupes rebelles en Syrie, a déclaré la guerre aux soldats russes qui combattent aux côtés des forces pro-gouvernementales syriennes dans la guerre civile, a déclaré un porte-parole du groupe à Middle East Eye mercredi.
La confirmation du porte-parole survient alors que la Russie renforce activement son soutien militaire en Syrie, notamment par l’envoi de 28 avions opérationnels dans le pays, selon des responsables américains.
De nouvelles images satellites publiées mardi semblent indiquer que la Russie développe deux nouvelles bases aériennes près de la ville portuaire clé de Lattaquié, un bastion du président syrien Bachar al-Assad.
Jaysh al-Islam, qui serait financé par l’Arabie saoudite, a posté une vidéo vendredi dernier montrant des combattants du groupe attaquant l’aéroport international de Bassel, à environ 20 km de Lattaquié.
Dans la vidéo, les combattants déclarent que l’aéroport est devenu une base pour l’armée russe, puis ils tirent plusieurs roquettes soi-disant en direction d’un avion-cargo russe, bien qu’il n’y en ait aucune preuve dans la vidéo.
Dans une conversation sur Skype avec MEE, le porte-parole de Jaysh al-Islam a bien insisté sur le fait que le groupe avait déclaré la guerre aux soldats russes, « non à la Russie en tant que pays ».
La dernière semaine, des combattants rebelles ont déclaré à Reuters avoir rencontré une résistance plus forte de la part des forces pro-gouvernementales, en particulier dans les zones côtières de Syrie, et qu’une intervention russe prolongera la guerre et encouragera les bailleurs étrangers des rebelles à accroître leur assistance militaire.(...)
Europe nudges US, Russia to walk the talk on Syria
By M K Bhadrakumar – September 21, 2015
▻http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2015/09/21/europe-nudges-us-russia-to-walk-the-talk-on-syria
Without doubt, this is a defining moment. Notwithstanding the immense pressure from detractors and critics within the US (and abroad in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, et al) to shift gear to a hyperactive interventionist role in Syria, President Obama has preferred the diplomatic track.
This primarily emanates out of the ground reality that the decade-old US strategy to force a regime change in Syria has reached a dead end. Besides, the regional scenario has also changed phenomenally. Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the two countries that did all they could to destabilize Syria, are marooned in their own existential problems — and Qatar too has rolled back its regional ambitions built around the Muslim Brotherhood in the wake of the Arab Spring. In a dramatic shift, Egypt has actually swung to the Russian side and would see Assad as a bulwark against radical Islamist groups.
Above all, the US’ European allies have lost faith, caught up in a protracted struggle to cope with the refugee flow and agonizing over the spectre of the IS. The melancholy, long, withdrawing roar of their retreat from the US’ regime change agenda in Syria should be audible in Washington. The debris of the conflict has reached Europe and although the US remains safe and untouched, it cannot wash off its hands off the political and moral responsibility for the horrific tragedy that is unfolding.
Meanwhile, the Syrian conflict itself has transformed. The Islamic State is today the real beneficiary of the regime change agenda pursued by the US and its regional allies. The ‘moderate’ Syrian opposition has become the butt of jokes. Which means that what is shaping up is a confrontation between the Syrian government forces and the IS. With air strikes against the IS not having much effect, Washington should show the practical wisdom to utilize whatever capabilities available on the ground.
What lies ahead? Kerry’s weekend visits to London and Berlin to consult key allies have prepared the ground for some intense discussions involving the various protagonists — Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, in particular — that can be expected to take place through the coming week in New York where the world leaders are gathering for the UN General Assembly session.
The manner in which the West has swiftly welcomed Russia’s military intervention in Syria underscores that a new chapter is beginning in their mutual relationship. This augurs well for conflict resolution in Syria. The bottom line is that the US’ trans-Atlantic leadership demands a quick solution to the Syrian conflict, which is threatening European security. In an extraordinary remark, Steinmeir actually urged all concerned — including the US — to “put aside national interests for the time being” and to rise to the occasion. (Transcript is here : ▻http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/09/247077.htm .)
KULTOSLO | En kulturkalender for Oslo : Assad’s Jihadist Allies - The Question of Syria
▻http://kultoslo.no/-/event/show/611813/8343544_assad-s-jihadist-allies-the-question-of-syria?ref=checkpoint
Et pendant ce temps-là, à Oslo, on continue de faire avancer la réflexion sur le conflit syrien... Décrire l’intervention en Syrie du Hezbollah et d’autres puissances, quel que soit le jugement que l’on porte sur elle, en termes de jihadisme relève de l’escroquerie intellectuelle.
While Media and western observers have mainly focused on the Sunni Jihadists moving to Syria to fight Assad or to join the “Islamic State” and fight Syrian opposition factions, other Jihadists – Shi’a ones – have been deploying in larger numbers in the country to defend Assad and “protect” his regime.
Whether from Iraq, from Afghanistan and Pakistan, or from the well-trained and equipped Hezbollah of Lebanon, the Shi’a fighters were mobilized by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and sent to fight in most strategic battles around Damascus the capital, in Deraa in the South and in Aleppo in the North.
Who are those “Shi’a Jihadists”? Why do they fight to defend the Assad regime? What are the ideological and political justifications for their fight? How does Iran recruit them? And What are the consequences of their “presence in Syria”?
Ce n’est pas l’arrêt (s’il est confirmé) de la participation du Hezbollah aux combats en Syrie (voir ici ▻http://seenthis.net/messages/411165) qui va les empêcher de débiter ce genre de conneries aux quatre coins de l’Europe. La révo, c’est un métier...
Russian Air Force joins Syrian War, advanced fighter-bombers spotted over Syria
▻http://spioenkop.blogspot.fr/2015/09/russian-air-force-joins-syrian-war.html #Syria #Russia #Syrie #Russie
From these developments it is clear that Russia will not allow the regime to succumb from rebel offensives, and despite the fact that the war is far from being fought, it would appear the reality is that #Assad will remain in power for the foreseeable future
Russian Meddling in Syria Drives Netanyahu to Moscow - Diplomacy and Defense - Haaretz - Amos Harel - Sep 21
▻http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.676885
Aside from reducing risk of unwanted clash between Israeli and Russian fighter jets, PM’s visit should be seen in a wider context of tensions between Moscow and Washington.
The immediate reason for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Moscow on Monday is increased Russian military involvement in Syria.
On Sunday, the first satellite photos were released from the air base that Russia is building on the Alawite strip of coast in northern Syria near Latakia. Netanyahu, who in an unusual step is taking Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Herzl Halevi, with him and, at the last minute, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, will devote much of his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to preventing direct friction between Israel and Russia in the north.
The aircraft photographed in northern Syria are Sukhoi 27s. Their main mission, according to experts on the Russian Air Force, is to ensure aerial superiority, not bombardment. That underscores the assessment that Russia has not sent its forces to the region just to fight Islamic State, which is what Russia stresses in justifying its new military deployment, but that Moscow wants to establish a more significant presence. Anti-aircraft batteries will apparently also be deployed to protect the base, as well as a small number of ground forces, tanks, APCs, and a special low-profile unit, in what is reminiscent of Russia’s conduct in the war in Ukraine.
But beyond reducing the risk of an unwanted clash between Israeli and Russian fighter jets over Syria or Lebanon, it seems that the visit should be seen in a wider context of tensions between Moscow and Washington.
And although Netanyahu only last week said “commentators” were wrong when they warned of a collapse of ties between Israel and the United States in light of the Iran nuclear deal, Netanyahu’s current visit to Moscow could be seen as an Israeli jab at Washington. The visit seems to reflect Netanyahu’s lack of faith in the ability or the intent of the United States to protect Israel’s security interests.
The visit cannot be considered good news in Washington, which led a campaign of condemnation and sanctions against Moscow over its involvement in the war in Ukraine last summer. (Israel did not take a position on that conflict and was duly rewarded by Russia which issued a moderate response to Israel’s actions in the war on Gaza shortly thereafter.)
The turning point in Russia’s policy in Syria can be traced to about a month ago. It’s interesting that it was a report from Israel — Yedioth Ahronoth’s report on the deployment of Russian fighter jets in northern Syria — that brought the issue to the attention of the world media. A few days later the American media began talking about it. It looks like Jerusalem is encouraging the publication of reports public of developments that would force the United States to intervene. But this time, Netanyahu is adding his high-profile visit to Russia.
Security sources in Israel who are knowledgeable about preparations for the visit said that Israel wants to ensure that Russian planes will not restrict the Israel Air Force’s freedom of movement on the northern border and will not lead to accidents or aerial battles. To this end, there will be an attempt to set rules of caution and perhaps a coordination procedure. Israel will also tell Russia that it would only consider intervening in Syria if red lines are crossed — namely, terror against Israel from Syrian territory, or an attempt to move advanced weaponry from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
These two red lines are connected to Russia. Most of the advanced arms Syria is getting are Russian. And with regard to terror, Israel is concerned over the third member of the partnership keeping Assad’s regime alive — Iran. Last year there was a series of attacks in the enclave still held by Assad’s forces in the northern end of the Syrian border with Israel in the Golan Heights. It is reasonable to assume that Israel will ask for Russia’s help in reining in attacks led by Iran from the border in the Golan.
Another question preoccupying Israel involves the fate of the hundreds of thousands of Druze in the Jabal al-Druze region near the border with Jordan. The Druze have in recent months been trying to distance themselves from Assad’s regime, threatened as they are from east and west by Sunni rebel forces.
Israel has in the past asked the United States to help protect the Druze in light of concern by Druze in Israel and in the Golan Heights for their brethren in Syria. A similar request might be addressed to Putin.
In an article this week in the magazine Foreign Affairs, the Israeli scholar Dr. Dima Adamsky describes Russia’s current policy in the region as a new and expanded version of Soviet intervention for Egypt during the War of Attrition, 45 years ago.
Adamsky, of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, writes that the operation was considered a success because the contingent of forces and adviser it sent saved the Egyptian regime and deterred Israel. According to Adamsky, Russia’s new assertiveness in the Middle East serves its supreme goal: attaining regional status parallel to that of the United States, in addition to secondary goals such as creating a buffer zone against jihadists that could strike Russia from the south.
Russia, Adamsky writes, sees the Arab Spring five years ago as the result of mistaken American Middle Eastern policy and the upheaval in the region almost directly hurt Russian interests when it led to the toppling of Gadhafi’s regime in Libya and endangered Assad’s regime.
Russia is also working on improving ties with Sunni countries – Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. Russia played an important role in the agreement two years ago on the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria and to a certain extent also helped put together the Iranian nuclear agreement in Vienna.
Russia hopes to parlay its renewed ties with Egypt and Syria into arms deals and economic contracts with countries in the region. In Moscow, Netanyahu and Eizenkot will be meeting a major player in the region, who long ago stopped making do with playing second fiddle to the United States.