Is War About to Break Out in the Balkans?
After 20 years of peace, Republika Srpska threatens to tear apart the agreement that has held Bosnia together. The West must stop it.
▻http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/26/war-break-out-balkans-bosnia-republika-srpska-dayton
Lost in the cacophony of international news about Russian airstrikes against U.S.-backed anti-Assad rebels in Syria and refugees flooding through the Balkans on their way to Western Europe, a crisis is brewing in Bosnia-Herzegovina on the European Union’s southeast flank. And here, too, Moscow has a hand in the mischief-making.
Nov. 21 marks the 20th anniversary of the Dayton peace agreement, which ended three-and-a-half years of brutal war between Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks. In Dayton, Ohio, U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke achieved a major diplomatic victory that ended the conflict and established the foundations of a viable state. The Dayton agreement also created an internationally backed overseer called the high representative to implement the peace accords. To this day, Bosnia is a rare success story in post-conflict state-building. The anniversary should be a time for celebration.
Unfortunately, it may not turn out that way. The Dayton agreement created two highly autonomous entities inside Bosnia: the Bosniak-Croat majority federation and the Serb majority Republika Srpska. Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska, plans to rain on the Dayton anniversary parade by openly violating the agreement on Nov. 15 in a move that many see as a thinly veiled independence referendum.
The scheduled plebiscite has only one question: “Do you support the unconstitutional and unauthorized imposition of laws by the High Representative of the International Community in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly the imposed laws on the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of [Bosnia-Herzegovina] and the implementation of their decisions on the territory of Republika Srpska?” Such a biased and leading question offers only one right answer. The referendum will give Dodik political and legal cover to order Republika Srpska institutions — from government administrators to tax collectors — to stop obeying state court orders, verdicts, and rulings, and to obstruct the work of the prosecutor’s office. This would undo 20 years of progress and commence the destruction of Bosnia’s legal order. While the referendum only addresses the judiciary, its destructive intentions make it a de facto declaration of independence. Lest anyone doubt Dodik’s intentions, in April he announced that Republika Srpska will hold an independence referendum in 2018.
Le rapport du 4/09/15 du Haut Représentant du Secrétaire Général de l’ONU.
Special Report of the High Representative to the Secretary General of the UN on the Implementation of the GFAP in BiH
▻http://www.ohr.int/other-doc/hr-reports/default.asp?content_id=49202
Conclusion
27. Under the authorities vested in me under Annex 10 of the GFAP and relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council, I hereby inform the UN Security Council of the following:
No referendum can be conducted by an entity in a matter that does not fall within its constitutional competencies.
Matters of state judicial institutions fall within the constitutional responsibilities of the state and do not fall under the entity’s constitutional responsibilities.
The status and powers of the High Representative are matters arising under the GFAP and international law, and therefore do not fall within the purview of the entities.
The entities cannot adopt legal acts on these matters, by referendum or otherwise.
The adoption by the entity of an act calling for a referendum of its citizens or the result of such a referendum that prevents the said entity from performing its obligations under Annex 4 and Annex 10 of the GFAP constitutes a material breach of Annex 4 and Annex 10 of the GFAP.
28. The attempts by the RS authorities to undermine existing state level institutions and constitutional responsibilities, to undo measures deemed necessary for implementing the GFAP, as well as to challenge the High Representative, his authority under Annex 10 and decisions of the High Representative(s) undertaken on the basis of the GFAP and UN Security Council Resolutions adopted under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter could have a serious effect on the durability of the implementation of the civilian aspects of the peace settlement.
29. The measures taken in implementing the GFAP over the last 20 years in BiH must not be called into question, and the UN Security Council and the broader international community must focus their efforts on sustaining what has been achieved over this period. If the current course of action initiated by the RS authorities remains unchecked, there will be increased risk that BiH will slide further towards disintegration, which could have significant international peace and security implications.
