person:muhammad bin salman

’Riyadhology’ and Muhammad bin Salman’s Telltale Succession - Lawfare

By Chibli Mallat Friday, June 8, 2018,

▻https://www.lawfareblog.com/riyadhology-and-muhammad-bin-salmans-telltale-succession

Saudi Arabia’s monarchy entered a new era last June when King Salman’s ambitious son Muhammad bin Salman, then just shy of 32, was made crown prince by royal order. MBS, as he is widely known, displaced Muhammad bin Nayef, an influential prince with deep ties to Washington, as next in line to the throne, marking a shift from the aging sons of the country’s founder, ‘Abd al-Aziz ibn Saud, to a younger coterie of royals—and skipping the generation in between. Since even before his accession to crown prince, MBS promoted a dynamic agenda of economic and social reforms—with plans to diversify the country’s economy, expand women’s rights and grant greater openness to Western culture—while also cracking down on political dissent.

There are different ways to try to decipher the political intrigue among the Saudi royal family. Among the best available tea leaves are the Saudis’ own legal pronouncements, and the royal orders that brought MBS to his current position are telling. Clearly rushed and poorly vetted, they suggest that King Salman and MBS were working outside the normal process for consensus within the royal family and that there is significant opposition to MBS’s rule waiting in the wings. 

Otherwise dry Saudi legal texts tell us much about “Riyadhology”—the Saudi equivalent of Kremlinology in the days of Soviet signal opacity. Laws of social science are more elusive, but I have defended the concept of “constitutional science” against skeptical editors, and sometimes prevailed. If one looks closely enough at key constitutional clauses, the wording reveals a compromise of political powers, each trying to push the language to his advantage. This is trite. More daring is the proposal that the fractured logic of these texts can give clues about a coming crisis.

When MBS was appointed crown prince in June 2017, the irregularities in the official process portended trouble. At stake is the transition of power from King Salman to his son.

Trump ME peace plan : Half West Bank for Palestinians, Abu Dis as capital - DEBKAfile
▻https://www.debka.com/trump-me-peace-plan-half-west-bank-for-palestinians-abu-dis-as-capital

https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/debka/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/20100414/US-Peace-Plan-5.18.jpg

The president had discussed the peace plan’s content with three Arab leaders, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, UAE emir Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed, the Qatari ruler Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi, as well as thoroughly briefing Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was invited to come aboard, but he rebuffed the offer – and that was even before he generated a crisis with Israel for its deadly confrontation with Hamas in Gaza.
(...)
A Palestinian state will be established with limited sovereignty across about half of the West Bank and all the Gaza Strip.
Israel will retain security responsibility for most of the West Bank and the border crossings.
The Jordan Valley will remain under Israel sovereignty and military control.
.The Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem will pass to the Palestinian state, excepting the Old City, which will be part of Israeli Jerusalem.
Abu Dis east of Jerusalem is the proposed capital of Palestine.
Palestine and Jordan will share religious jurisdiction over the city’s mosques.
Gaza will be integrated in the new Palestinian state provided Hamas agrees to disarm.
There is no provision in the plan for the Palestinian refugees’ “right of return” – but a compensation mechanism will be established and managed by the international community.
The Trump plan mandates Israel’s recognition as the homeland of the Jewish people, and Palestine with limited sovereignty as the Palestinian homeland.

Debka est un site « d’intelligence » qui sert souvent aux Israéliens à faire passer des infos à confirmer par la suite... Les choses seraient décidées à la fin du mois de ramadan...

#palestine

An Open Letter by Senior Middle East Scholars to the New York Times Regarding its Thomas Friedman’s column, “Saudi Arabia’s Arab Spring, At Last.” | Middle East Research and Information Project

▻http://www.merip.org/open-letter-senior-middle-east-scholars-new-york-times-regarding-its-thomas-f

published November 30, 2017

We write as scholars of the Middle East and the Muslim world with long, collective experience on Gulf and Arabian Peninsula policy issues to express our amazement, concern and anger that the New York Times would publish Thomas Friedman’s recent essay “Saudi Arabia’s Arab Spring, At Last.”

We understand that opinion writing allows for some degree of license in the interpretation of events and issues. But Mr. Friedman’s description of the situation in Saudi Arabia is so divorced from reality as to call into question his competence as a journalist or opinion writer. The so-called “Arab Spring” was an attempt by young people and, soon thereafter, large sections of the population of several Arab countries to force their governments to democratize their political systems; to resist stifling of speech and expression; and to halt large-scale systematic torture and physical abuse of citizens by security forces. Not only has the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman not addressed any of these issues, all the evidence points to the opposite conclusion—that his growing power has been accompanied by a ramping up of censorship, arrests, imprisonments without (fair) trials and other forms of violent repression against dissent.

Even worse, Mr. Friedman has nary a word on the unmitigated disaster that is the Saudi war in Yemen, which has now surpassed Syria as the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe. The evidence for bin Salman’s leading role in executing this illegal, murderous war that has done immeasurable harm to tens of millions of Yemenis and thrown the entire Arabian peninsula and Gulf region into chaos is incontrovertible. We cannot understand how any professional journalist (which Mr. Friedman describes himself as at the start of the article) could engage in a long-form interview with bin Salman and avoid interrogating the issue in any detail, essentially giving him a pass for being the mastermind of an illegal war that has devastated the lives of millions, and today borders on genocide.

The bizarre alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia is finally fraying
▻https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/11/bizarre-alliance-between-us-and-saudi-arabia-finally-fraying

(British governments haven’t been any better: the Saudis have been close allies and major buyers of UK arms since the 1960s and, this summer, Theresa May buried an official report on the foreign funding of extremism which is believed to have highlighted the significant role played by Saudi Arabia.)

See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. That’s been the shameless position of Western governments when it comes to the Gulf kingdom. Successive US administrations, Democrat and Republican, have even stayed silent on the supposedly all-important issue of terrorism. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudi citizens? No problem. “Donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide,” according to a leaked State Department memo? Don’t worry about it. Islamic State is printing copies of Saudi textbooks to use in their schools? Ssshhhh.

These days, the conventional wisdom is that the Trump administration has revitalised the US-Saudi special relationship. The president – who once suggested the Saudi government was behind 9/11! – made the kingdom the first stop on his inaugural foreign trip in May and then threw his full support behind Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s controversial purge of his royal rivals on 4 November.

A political earthquake is rocking Saudi Arabia’s pillars of princ

▻https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/Comment/2017/11/7/A-Saudi-political-earthquake-decapitates-the-system-of-princes

Saudi Arabia’s political earthquake has shaken the foundations of the country’s power structure. 

A system based on the division of power between the lineages of the sons of Abd al Aziz Ibn Saud has been replaced - at least temporarily - by one based on the lineage of King Salman and within it, of his young son Muhammad.

Other Gulf monarchies, including in Qatar and Oman, have witnessed intra-family power struggles that resulted in the replacement of the sovereign by his son. But none has ever witnessed what amounts to a coup d’etat against not only the king, but against the entire monarchical system within which he exercised his powers.

So Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s purge of his uncles and cousins is more akin to republican coups mounted in Egypt in 1952, Iraq in 1958, or Libya in 1969.
The two key questions to be asked are (i) can the crown prince consolidate his power, and (ii) what will be the long-term consequences of the political earthquake?

The effectiveness demonstrated thus far by King Salman and his son in grabbing all the country’s reins of power suggests real political skill. They undercut Prince Muhammad bin Nayef’s base in the Ministry of Interior, one he had inherited from his father, and then utilised that base to neutralise other princes.

Is Mohammed Bin Salman rewriting Saudi Arabia’s history? | Middle East Eye

▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/mohammed-bin-salman-rewriting-history-saudi-arabia-633696870

In a recent interview with the Guardian, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman confirmed his decision to return the country to moderate Islam. The prince insisted that the conservative, extremist trend was a recent phenomenon in the Kingdom and that it went back to just 30 years ago. He added that it was born out of the climate created by the Iranian revolution.

Bin Salman did not hesitate to note that the kingdom’s former leaders failed to address the phenomenon and that he was determined to put an end to it. He said: "What occurred during the past thirty years was not Saudi Arabia. What happened in the region was not the Middle East. In the wake of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, there emerged some people who wanted to copy that model in other countries. Saudi Arabia was one of those countries.

READ MORE ►

 Salman’s ’moderate Islam’: A Disneyland for robots, not an open society
“We did not even know how to tackle it, and the problem spread across the entire world. Now is the time to get rid of it once and for all.”

Bin Salman added: “We are simply going back to what we used to follow, moderate Islam, the Islam that is open to the world and to other religions … We shall not waste thirty more years of our life in confronting extremists. We shall destroy them, now and immediately.”

Muhammad Bin Salman, de facto leader de l’Arabie... - Laurent Bonnefoy
▻https://www.facebook.com/laurent.jeanne.90/posts/10155554889930528?comment_id=10155554961665528&reply_comment_id=1015555518

Muhammad Bin Salman, de facto leader de l’Arabie Saoudite fascine les grands médias occidentaux et nos dirigeants. C’est à l’évidence une histoire d’amour qui commence et les centaines de millions injectés par le Royaume (via des agences de com’) pour changer son image en Europe et aux Etats-Unis n’y sont sans doute pas pour rien ! Le branding « MBS » marche à plein : France Inter ce matin, le New York Times hier, The Economist il y a deux ans.
On y lit ou entend des louanges, on relève la difficulté de la tâche relevée par le jeune prince « courageux » (parce que les Saoudiens seraient des « fainéants » ou des « corrompus », ou bien parce que les méchants religieux veillent au grain).
Quelques historiens pourront sans doute dans quelques années tracer un parallèle avec la fascination qu’exercait Saddam Hussein dans les années 1980 ou Bachar el-Assad au milieu des années 2000. A une différence près, concernant « MBS » et son terrain de jeu macabre yéménite, aux fondements de son règne, les informations sont aujourd’hui pleinement disponibles. Encore faut-il vouloir les voir !

Hate Speech in Saudi Arabia

Under Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi government has promoted the kingdom as becoming a more open and tolerant country. Yet, as a new Human Rights Watch report “‘They Are Not Our Brothers’: Hate Speech by Saudi Officials” details, Saudi authorities continue to not only permit but propagate incitement to hatred and discrimination against other religions and Islamic traditions that do not adhere to its interpretation of Sunni Islam. This hate speech—which can be found in the country’s criminal justice system, the Ministry of Education’s religion curriculum, and in government clerics’ fatwas and statements—is instrumental in Saudi Arabia’s enforcement of a system of discrimination against its own Saudi #Shia citizens.

https://globalfreedomofexpression.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/HRW.jpg

#hate_speech #racisme #xénophobie #Arabie_Saoudite #rapport #discriminations #migrations #propagande

Deux stars de la prédication islamique auraient été emprisonnées en Arabie saoudite pour avoir exprimé des positions trop favorables au Qatar. Très important si confirmé.

انباء عن اعتقال السلطات السعودية سلمان العودة وعوض القرني بعد تغريدات بشأن أزمة قطر أثارت ردودًا غاضبة في المملكة | رأي اليوم
▻http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=741098

#nuit_torride

Etonnant développement de la #nuit_torride ! L’ambassadeur des Emirats aux USA eplique sur une télé nordaméricaine que l’objectif des pays qui s’en prennent au Qatar est de mettre en place "des gouvernements séculiers (laïcs)"
“ما تريده الإمارات والسعودية والأردن ومصر والبحرين للشرق الأوسط هو حكومات علمانية”
Tempête de protestations sur les réseaux sociaux, y compris de la part de membres de la famille royale saoudienne.

ردًّا على تصريحات سفير الإمارات في واشنطن بشأن علمانية حُكومات الدول المُقاطعة لقطر.. أُمراء سعوديون غاضبون من مُستقبل مملكتهم | رأي اليوم
▻http://www.raialyoum.com/?p=718594

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب: House of Saudi: those who oppose them are cheering
▻http://angryarab.blogspot.fr/2017/06/house-of-saudi-those-who-oppose-them.html

House of Saudi: those who oppose them are cheering
No one has ever shaken the usually united Saudi Family like this Muhammad bin Salman. Opponents of the regime are counting on him to bring the regime down. March on.

Je partage très fort !

Troubled waters in the Gulf
▻http://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/middle-east/2017/troubled-waters-in-the-gulf

http://www.petroleum-economist.com/media/3474/gcc-banner.jpg?mode=pad&width=1920&format=jpg&quality=100&slimmage=true&rnd=131418928670000000

Even before the Qatar controversy erupted, the population of the Gulf was witnessing a radical change in leadership styles—at least in two of the key GCC states, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Two charismatic and ambitious leaders, Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the son of the king of Saudi Arabia, and Muhammad bin Zaid, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and the strongman of the UAE, have led the way.

These two young and energetic princes have challenged the traditional structures and mechanisms of Gulf leadership, offering a new approach that’s more decisive, but less accountable and less predictable.

[...]

The continuation of this new leadership trend would gradually give the two men involved a status more akin to an all-powerful president than a king, more like Sisi of Egypt than the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. For many Gulf citizens this represents a traumatic break with tradition, disturbing in a region where change has always been gradual and measured, and the future has never looked anything other than calm and secure.

There is a danger that the populations could feel even more disenfranchised than before. And with the solid support of the Trump administration, which has cast aside Obama’s dictum that Arab states adhere to high standards of human rights, dissent would be firmly stifled.

#golfe

A new recruit in Saudi regime media
▻http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2017/06/a-new-recruit-in-saudi-regime-media.html

Yahya Aridi (the spokesperson of the Syrian opposition delegation in Astana) is now a columnist for Ash-Sharq Al-Awsat, mouthpiece of Muhammad bin Salman. The man who used to hurl the most obscene and vulgar insults against anyone who criticized the Syrian regime (and I got my share of his insults at Georgetown when we both were students) will now hurl vulgar and obscene insults at anyone who criticizes the Saudi regime. Long live revolution—GCC style.

Saudi Reforms and the Future of Mohammed bin Salman | New Eastern Outlook A russian point of view
►http://journal-neo.org/2017/04/29/saudi-reforms-and-the-future-of-mohammed-bin-salman

On April 22, as was already customary in the era of King Salman and his son, Prince Mohammed, a series of royal decrees were unexpectedly adopted and immediately published. The essence of these decrees is twofold: on the one hand, the level of salaries and bonuses for state employees will be restored, after having been canceled in September 2016, and they, respectively, will be increased by twenty percent. In addition, two salaries are paid at once to servicemen fighting in Yemen. On the other hand, a number of resignations and new appointments have been announced, which can also be divided into two parts – the appointment of new ministers and new governors.Rather significant figures have been dismissed from the group of appointees of Mohammed bin Salman himself, such as the Minister of Information and Culture, and technocrats, mostly not from the royal family, are listed in their place; whereas the posts of provincial governors and their deputies everywhere are taken up primarily by young princes of royal blood. The most notable appointment is the new ambassador to the United States – another son of King Khaled bin Salman. Yet another son, Abdelaziz bin Salman, changed from the Deputy Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources to State Minister for Energy (the post is more honorary than influential).

Behind all these decisions is the iron logic of power. If we speak about raising salaries and paying benefits, then the emergence of this decree is dictated by the need to calm the maturing opposition in the Saudi society and the frustration that is flaring up in social media. They accuse the young prince, who is responsible for the economic, defense and foreign policy of the country, of living wastefully against the backdrop of the misfortunes of the Saudi population (although those are quite relative compared with other countries), which has begun to live significantly worse, given the fall in oil prices and measures to reduce the budget deficit, which amounted to a record $75 billion in 2016. Muhammad bin Salman is also accused of inept, ill-conceived reforms that do not produce proper results, and of delaying the costly military campaign in Yemen, which has not yet yielded any results. In this context, the increase in salaries and the payment of bonuses were absolutely necessary to strengthen the young prince’s shaky positions. The royal finances now provide some opportunities for this because of the stabilization of oil prices at $52-55 per barrel, although they are not enough to solve the problems of a budget deficit – for this the price for oil would need to soar to $78 per barrel, which so far looks unrealistic.

►http://journal-neo.org/2017/04/29/saudi-reforms-and-the-future-of-mohammed-bin-salman

#Russie #Arabie

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب : A shift in Saudi policy toward Syrian regime
▻http://angryarab.blogspot.fr/2017/04/a-shift-in-saudi-policy-toward-syrian.html

A shift in Saudi policy toward Syrian regime
There are signs of a significant shift in Saudi policies toward Syria: the shift was evident in the statement by the Arab League last week. And Ali Shihabi (childhood friend and head of a new pro-Prince Muhammad bin Salman think tank in DC), said to CNN that Syria is “a lost cause” (he later denied or corrected the statement). And now this: `Abdul-Rahman Al-Rashid (the influential propagandist of King Salman and his sons) says that Gulf regimes are likely to “adjust” (the words he used were “to deal favorably with the new political reality”—in reference to US policy of leaving Asad in power). He also looks back favorably at Hafidh Al-Asad and praised him. It seems that the new policy of Saudi regime toward Syria is reduced to calling on an end to Iranian presence there. I feel sorry for all the Syrians and the supporters of the Syrian “revolution” who—BIZARRELY—counted on the House of Saud to save their “revolution”. I also feel sorry for the leftists around the world who treated Gulf regimes as the true sponsors of “revolution”.

(Ce qui à mes yeux explique le soudain battage autour des attaques chimiques, mais je dois être cynique.)

#syrie

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب : Turkey coup
▻https://angryarab.blogspot.fr/2016/07/turkey-coup.html

Turkey coup
I will write later but I believe that Saudi regime covered the coup if not sponsored it. Many signs.

J’avais hésité à l’écrire, on verra quels sont les signes que As’ad Abu Khalil mettra en avant. Pour ma part, j’ai été très frappé de la couverture très très très « en deça » du Hayat. J’ai fait un tour sur la presse saoudienne, mais c’était probablement un peu trop tard déjà, l’affaire était pliée et, du coup, tout le monde titrait : « L’Arabie saoudite se félicite du retour au calme » ou quelque chose de ce genre...

#Turquie

The Angry Arab News Service/وكالة أنباء العربي الغاضب: I have not seen such a revolutionary meeting of the minds since the last GCC summit
▻http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2016/05/i-have-not-seen-such-revolutionary.html

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RvRr_iZ4yt0/VznWndzZaiI/AAAAAAAAHaQ/rb5NlYLlsIom0K57iS9z0fRZbSDf5xoywCLcB/w1200-h630-p-nu/CifT-swWkAAPtnZ.jpg

From Left: Revolutionary George Sabra. Revolutionary Walid Jumblat. Revolutionary Burhan Ghalyun. Revolutionary Michel Kilu. And the revolutionary spirit of Muhammad bin Salman hover over them.

#esprit #révolutionnaires

The clown prince: Muhammad bin Salman’s plans for Saudi Arabia
▻http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2016/january/saudi-clown-prince.htm

In an interview for the latest issue of the Economist magazine, Prince Muhammad talked effusively about his plans for transforming the Saudi economy through new taxes, mass privatisation and the sale of national assets – a plan reportedly developed with help from the multinational consulting firm, McKinsey & Co. 

Asked by the Economist if what he has in mind is “a Thatcher revolution for Saudi Arabia”, the prince replied: “Most certainly.”

What this points to, though, is not just an economic upheaval but a political one too. It’s the classic pre-revolutionary scenario, seen many times in history, where an expiring regime attempts to reform – only to discover it has left things far too late.

« Pakistan et Arabie saoudite se réconcilient après le désaccord sur le Yémen » - Brookings

▻http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/11/08-saudi-pakistan-reconciliation-yemen-peacekeeping-riedel

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are resetting their relationship, which was dealt a major setback earlier this year when Islamabad refused to join the Saudi war in Yemen.

Pakistan’s chief of army staff, General Raheel Sharif, visited Riyadh last week and held talks with King Salman, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, and Defense Minister Prince Muhammad bin Salman. A joint Saudi-Pakistani military exercise was also concluded. The Saudi media hailed the visit as an end to the “somewhat cool” period that followed the unanimous vote in the Pakistani parliament last April against sending any troops to join the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

The vote was followed by a wave of editorials in the Pakistani press harshly critical of the Kingdom. This criticism was highly unusual given the long history of close relations between the two states.

Arabie saoudite : le roi désigne Mohammed ben Nayef nouveau prince héritier
▻http://french.xinhuanet.com/monde/2015-04/29/c_134195348.htm

Le roi Salmane ben Abdel Aziz d’Arabie saoudite a relevé mercredi son demi-frère, le prince Moqren, de ses fonctions de prince héritier et de premier vice-Premier ministre, et a désigné comme héritier au trône son neveu Mohammed ben Nayef, qui était deuxième dans l’ordre de succession, ont rapporté des médias locaux.

Le roi a également désigné son fils, le prince Mohammed ben Salmane, comme futur prince héritier, et a remplacé le ministre des Affaires étrangères, le prince Saud al-Faisal, par l’ambassadeur du royaume à Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, selon la chaîne de télévision d’Etat.

Saud al-Faisal était le ministre séoudien des affaires étrangères depuis… 1975. Al-Jubeir est généralement considéré comme un homme de Bandar bin Sultan.

Et pour mémoire, quand Saad Hariri avait qualifié Assef Chawkat d’« assassin » sur un enregistrement audio fuité, il avait précisé que ce dernier « était semblable au prince saoudien Mohammad ben Nayef » :
▻http://seenthis.net/messages/335081
Oui, Saad, tout le monde comprend que tu as beaucoup à te faire pardonner : ce type est ton prochain roi (on essaiera de te trouver un petit boulot à Sukleen).

Arabie Saoudite : une transition sous haute tension

Par Stéphane Lacroix

▻http://www.sciencespo.fr/newsletter/archive-b923309cd7838d94d0046adb772b978e.html

Le 23 janvier 2015, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saoud, 79 ans, est monté sur le trône d’Arabie Saoudite, succédant à son demi-frère Abdallah. Muqrin, 69 ans, vice-prince héritier nommé par Abdallah dont il était proche, est désormais le prince héritier. En apparence, la succession s’est faite sans accrocs. La réalité est cependant plus complexe. La famille royale saoudienne est déchirée depuis des décennies par des rivalités profondes entre factions princières dont l’enjeu est, entre autres, le contrôle de la manne pétrolière. Ces rivalités se sont exacerbées depuis plusieurs années, à mesure qu’approchait l’échéance redoutée de la transmission du pouvoir à la génération suivante. Depuis 1953, en effet, tous les rois saoudiens appartiennent à une même fratrie, issue du père fondateur de l’Arabie Saoudite moderne, le roi Abdulaziz. Or celle-ci ne compte plus aujourd’hui que quelques membres, ce qui nourrit les ambitions des petits-fils d’Abdulaziz. Surtout, ces derniers se comptant par centaines, le système actuel de partage horizontal du pouvoir ne pourra se perpétuer en l’état. Il n’est pas impossible que la faction dominante décide, le moment venu, d’exclure les factions concurrentes. D’où la nature existentielle de l’enjeu.

Le roi Salman appartient à la faction des Sudayris, descendants du roi Abdulaziz par l’une de ses épouses préférées, Hussa al-Sudayri. Sous le règne du roi Fahd (1982-2005), lui-même membre de cette faction, les Sudayris s’étaient vus confortés au sommet de l’Etat saoudien. Son successeur le roi Abdallah (2005-2015), prince périphérique dénué de frères de sang, avait, au cours de son règne, constitué une alliance ad hoc au sein de la famille royale pour déloger ses rivaux. Il avait en outre nommé plusieurs de ses fils à des positions de pouvoir. Dès son entrée en fonction, Salman s’est appliqué à défaire les choix d’Abdallah : à l’exception de Mit‘ab, inamovible chef de la garde nationale, tous les fils d’Abdallah ont été remerciés, ainsi que ses fidèles qui oeuvraient au sein des ministères et des gouvernorats. En retour, Salman a choisi de concentrer le pouvoir entre les mains de deux princes Sudayris de la génération suivante : son propre fils Muhammad bin Salman, âgé de seulement 34 ans, qui est désormais chef du cabinet royal, ministre de la Défense et président du Conseil économique et social ; et l’incontournable Muhammad bin Nayef, 55 ans, ministre de l’Intérieur, président du Conseil pour les affaires politiques et sécuritaires, qui s’est illustré à la tête de l’anti-terrorisme saoudien et bénéficie du soutien de Washington. Enfin, last but not least, ce dernier s’est vu décerner le titre de vice-prince héritier, ce qui fait de lui un monarque en puissance.

La manœuvre est subtile, mais on peut déjà en anticiper les conséquences : après la mort de Salman, le prince héritier Muqrin serait un roi faible car dépourvu d’alliés. Viendrait alors Muhammad bin Nayef, beaucoup plus influent, mais qui souffre d’un handicap sérieux : il n’a pas de fils. Un boulevard s’ouvrirait alors pour Muhammad bin Salman qui, à son âge, a encore la vie devant lui. On voit ainsi se dessiner les contours d’un pouvoir Sudayri, au sein duquel les descendants de Salman occuperaient une place privilégiée.

Un tel scénario ne se réalisera néanmoins pas sans résistances, et ces dernières pourraient avoir un effet déstabilisateur dans une Arabie Saoudite vouée à voir sa situation se précariser dans les années à venir. Sur le plan socioéconomique, la baisse des prix du pétrole alliée à une démographie galopante pourraient à terme menacer le pacte social, même si le royaume dispose encore d’importantes réserves financières. Sur le plan sécuritaire, le pays n’a jamais été aussi menacé par son environnement proche : au Nord, l’Etat islamique l’a nommément désigné comme la cible première de son expansionnisme ; au Sud, le Yémen est aujourd’hui partagé entre milices houthistes soutenues directement ou indirectement par l’Iran, et combattants d’Al-Qaïda dans la péninsule arabique. Au-delà les apparences, c’est donc une transition sous haute tension qui se déroule aujourd’hui à Riyad.

#arabie_saoudite