person:mustafa sonmez

Loans of households exceed sectors in Turkey | Mustafa Sönmez
▻http://mustafasonmez.net/?p=5310

Loans that fall into the individual loan category of housing, vehicle, personal and credit cards have reached 23.9 percent with 376 billion liras. The non-performing 15 billion liras are not included in this total. In consumer loans, the rate of bad loans is nearing 4 percent and it is over the rate of general non-performing loans. Thus, we can see that the loans of households in mid-2015 reached 390 billion liras.

Today in Turkey, there is a household loaning culture unseen in the period before 2003. Consumer credits are in the form of housing, vehicle and personal loans, over credit cards and cash credits. Even though they lost their tempo in 2014, they have increased rapidly every year.

Banks, even though they slowed down a little in past years, have given one-third of their credits to individuals. However, the economic, social and political dimensions of this increase are exaggerated from time to time [...]

Loaning for what?

Especially after 2005 when long-term housing credits were available, housing credits in individual loans made up one-third of family loans. While auto credits had an 8 to 9 percent share in earlier years, in later years its share went down to 2 percent. Thus, when talking about household loans, we should remember that 36-37 percent of them are loans to buy houses and cars. These are not loans out of financial difficulties; these are loans made by those who have a stable income. They should be considered separately

Another mistake made while talking about family loans and individual debt burdens is to look at the loaning relationship within the banking system. As a matter of fact, we know that families loan outside the banks also. Especially those segments which consider the interest rate a sin, loaning with foreign currency, purchases without using credit cards and taking loans from friends are quite widespread. Even if they constitute one-fourth of the loans which stand at 390 billion liras today then the family debt burden is immediately of much higher importance.

#Crédit #Consommation #Turquie

The political gain of the construction boom | Mustafa Sönmez
▻http://mustafasonmez.net/?p=4768

It could be said that, in the climb of the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) regime beginning in 2003, in the rise of its voting base from 30 percent to 50 percent, that it was the rapid growth of Turkey’s capitalism experienced in the 2000s which has been the most effective contributor; moreover, it has played the most significant role.

The political Islam that did not reach a 20 percent share of the total votes in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s was in power after the Nov. 3, 2002, elections with 34 percent of the votes. It increased its votes in subsequent elections and became the first party; in its building of an Islamic regime, economic growth and its economic platform have played the most important role.

This growth was made possible by foreign capital inflow that reached $40 billion annually. This foreign resource was mostly used in the domestic market. In this domestic market-oriented growth, it was construction, especially mass housing, that led the sector.

As of 2014, the AKP regime clung on to this line, insisting on it because they prioritized their political targets more than anything else. It was a preference at the cost of leaving a huge foreign debt of $400 billion (half of the national income) and a series of fragilities and structural malfunctions.
The political gain of focusing on construction is maybe more than its economic gain.

#immobilier #Economie #Turquie

Agricultural Turkey rapidly becoming importer of farm goods | Mustafa Sönmez
▻http://mustafasonmez.net/?p=4750

Inflation is continuing to be a major issue for Turkey; consumer inflation at the end of 2014 will be between the 9 and 10 percent band. The biggest headache in inflation is food inflation, with steep hikes in food prices being the biggest complaint of the low and middle income classes, which constitute the predominant segment of the population. The reason for this is that kitchen expenditures constitute 35-40 percent of the total budget of this segment.

Also with the onset of a drought this year, the prices of certain vegetables and fruits have become non-affordable. It is an accepted opinion that agriculture is being neglected and adequate support is not being provided for agriculture from the general budget. As a result, Turkey, which used to boast that it was self-sufficient, is rapidly becoming a food-agriculture importer. It is experiencing “food supply insecurity,” alongside energy insecurity

#Inflation #Politique_agricole # Turquie

Turkish households lose their appetite for spending on loans | Mustafa Sönmez
▻http://mustafasonmez.net/?p=4697

The Turkish economy rapidly borrowed externally as financial corporations sourced nearly one-third of their resources as credit for consumer families.This lending boosted the domestic sale of houses, vehicles and durable and indurable products, mainly white goods. To put it in another way, the borrowing by households became one of the building blocks of the growth paradigm based on the domestic market that went on to soar from year to year. From September 2004 to September 2014, the loan stock of total households increased nominally at a rate of 1,306 percent. However, a recalculation of this for inflation shows that there was an increase of 48 times in real terms. Those who borrowed one in 2004 are now borrowing five. The total credit used or the debt stock has increased almost five-fold.

However, in the past 12 months when the economy stagnated, there has also been a significant slowdown in consumer loans. The dimensions of the consumer loans that appear in the form of consumer credits as house, vehicle and general-purpose personal finances, and as cash credit through credit cards, exceeded 345.5 billion Turkish Liras (155 billion dollars) as of September 2014, but when inflation is taken into account, there was a 1 percent decline compared to the previous year. This means a decrease in demand for an economy that is growing based on the domestic market and also means a slowdown in its motor of growth

#Consommation
#Crédits
#Turquie

Democratic autonomy faces off with centralization in presidential polls | Mustafa Sönmez
▻http://mustafasonmez.net/?p=4542

#décentralisation
#inégalités_territoriales
#démocratie
#présidentielle_Turquie

Alarm Over Istanbul’s Building Boom
▻http://reclaimistanbul.com/2014/05/22/alarm-over-istanbuls-building-boom-nytimes

“

We are invading Istanbul again,” the real estate agent said enthusiastically as she ticked off the selling points of Turkey’s most ambitious development extravaganza to date: Maslak 1453.

According to research by Mustafa Sonmez, author of numerous books on the Turkish economy, Mr. Erdogan has favored the construction and real estate sectors at the expense of important export sectors.

“It’s a shame,” said Mr. Sonmez, who calculates that construction spending is now about 9 percent of the overall economy, a level that the International Monetary Fund has found to be associated with problems in other countries. “We have used all this free money to build houses and feed the domestic market.”

To date, the local market had been remarkably resilient, overcoming a global rise in interest rates caused by last year’s “taper tantrum” surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin cutting back on stimulus, and the anti-government, anti-development street protests at Taksim Square here in Istanbul.

But in the first three months of the year, unit sales for new apartments were down about 60 percent compared to the same period last year, according to Emlak Konut, the country’s largest real estate investment company.

Moreover, Mr. Eren said, the inventory of unsold housing units has risen to 1.5 million, compared to levels close to zero several years ago, a clear sign that the slowing economy and higher interest rates are cutting into demand.

The potential for a real estate crash highlights the role of the relatively obscure Housing Development Administration, commonly known as Toki, in fueling the boom.

Traditionally a bureaucratic backwater with a mandate to push for more affordable homes, Toki emerged as a housing power center when its bylaws were changed in January 2004 to bring it under the direct control of Mr. Erdogan less than a year after he was elected. Under his sponsorship, Toki amassed choice properties at little or no cost, auctioned them off to developers and took a cut of the profits.

According to Mr. Sonmez, Toki has been particularly aggressive in backing high-end projects undertaken by developers with ties to Mr. Erdogan. They include Ali Agaoglu, the billionaire businessman behind Maslak 1453, who late last year was one of a number of business executives, bankers and politicians questioned by the police as part of a broad corruption investigation. Also questioned were two Toki board members.

❞

http://reclaimistanbul.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/bas-princen-city-edge-instabul-2009-10-x-15-rgb-98.jpg?w=470&h=375

#Istanbul
#Bulle_immobilière
#TOKI

Inflation climbing while Turkish wage-earners always left behind | Mustafa Sönmez
▻http://mustafasonmez.net/?p=4254

The highest price hike annually occurred in the transport group with 13.8 percent. The transportation expenditures occupy the third largest group in family budgets with a share of 15.5 percent. Among them, automobile prices stand out with a 30 percent hike and naval transportation tickets have gone up 23 percent in the past year, while plane tickets have gone up 22 percent.

It was interesting to see the housing expenditures that have a share of 16.4 percent in family budgets, price increases remained under 5 percent in an annual inflation rate nearing 10 percent. One factor is the low course of house rental hikes, but at the same time it is observed that the low course in this group’s price increases are also due to the delayed rises in natural gas and electricity prices.

The situation is not at all good for millions of minimum wage earning workers. For years, the real increase in the minimum wage which was 846 Turkish Liras net ($402) at mid-2010 has been following a course behind the growth. The minimum wage figure net of inflation shows an increase of an average of 2.5 percent annually.

This is 2 points behind the annual 4.4 percent growth rate and it shows minimum wage earners are also left behind in taking their share in the increase in welfare. The climb of inflation to around 10 percent, unless restitutory adjustments are done, will mean that 2014 will also be another year added to lost years in terms of the wage-earning class

#Inflation
#Croissance
#Redistribution
#Turquie