• via Ilan Kelman sur le liste “critical geography”

    The trial of the Italian scientists regarding the L’Aquila earthquake is now over with the scientists being found guilty of manslaughter and sentenced to prison.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20025626

    Many scientists are outraged at the verdict, suggesting that the courts seem to think that earthquake prediction is possible. For a different perspective, see David Alexander’s paper

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17477891.2012.689250

    which states with regards to the trial that “science and scientists were not on trial. The hypothesis of culpability being tested in the courts referred to the failure to adopt a precautionary approach in the face of clear indications of impending seismic impact, not failure to predict an earthquake, and this is amply documented in official records”.

    Alexander provided further details in another peer-reviewed paper

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19390459.2010.511450

    which states: “As articulated at the meeting of the Commission on Major Risks on 31 March 2009, the Italian Government’s position was unequivocal: there was no cause for alarm. This attitude permeated its way down the ranks of the civil protection system. Then, at 00:30 hrs on Monday 6 April 2010, a tremor that was larger than usual shook L’Aquila. Residents rushed out of their houses in alarm. The strategy adopted by civil protection authorities was to tour the streets with loudspeakers advising people to calm down and return home. In the town of Pagánica, less than 10 km northeast of L’Aquila, residents did exactly that: in the ensuing main shock three hours later, eight of them died and 40 were seriously injured. In L’Aquila city I investigated one case in which a young lady had decided to remain out of doors after the foreshock, while her parents returned home. Their bodies were recovered by firemen from a space barely 15 cm wide into which the building had compressed as it collapsed”.

    Care is needed regarding the media interpretations of this story. This case is complicated and is not just about hazard forecasting or prediction. Further comments, discussion, and insights would be welcome.

    Ilan Kelman

    http://www.ilankelman.org

    #italie #tremblement-terre #science #aquila