Ce site (russe) décrit une situation économique apocalyptique en Ukraine…
Olga SHEDROVA - Kiev Is Starting a War to Avoid a Revolution - Strategic Culture Foundation - on-line journal > Kiev Is Starting a War to Avoid a Revolution > Strategic-Culture.org - Strategic Culture Foundation
While the Kiev junta is waging war against its own people in the Southeast, throughout the country protests are growing due to a catastrophic drop in the standard of living of the populace. An increase in all utility rates is coming July 1. In particular, gas prices for the population of Ukraine will go up by 55-70%; hot water and heating by 40%; electricity by 10-40%, depending on consumption volumes; and centralized water supply and sewage by 78-96%. The greatest increase is expected in Kiev, where on July 1 the price of hot water for Kievans will increase by almost 70% and the price of centralized heating will increase by almost 60%. And this is only the first stage of price increases for utilities, which will continue to grow incrementally until 2017. According to First Deputy Head of the Budget Committee of the Verkhovna Rada Oksana Kaletnik, in 2015 utility rates will increase by 40%, and in 2016 and 2017 by another 20% per year. The veracity of these figures is dubious, since as of May 1, 2014, for example, the public was paying only 24% of the actual costs for production, transmission and delivery of electricity.
At the same time, the IMF is demanding a rise in rates for the public «to an economically justified level», that is, total elimination of the system of state subsidies in the utilities field.
At the same time, as Ukrainian Prime Minister A. Yatsenyuk has stated, the government will freeze the amount of the minimum wage and the poverty line. According to the conclusions of the authoritative Razumkov Centre, «the freezing of pay raises, pensions and social benefits is connected with the fact that the economy in Ukraine is not working. A decline can be observed, both in industry and in other areas... In such a situation neither Ukrainian businesses nor the state budget have the resources to raise wages in order to support the population. This year real income and real wages are decreasing, which is creating an additional social problem in the country». Furthermore, the government is stubbornly spreading rumors that workers in the public sector and public servants will lose all bonuses. And although that bill has for now been removed from the parliament’s agenda, in some regions public sector employees have already lost the bonuses they are entitled to by law. For example, instructors and librarians in Nova Kakhovka (Kherson region) lost a 50% salary uplift, and teachers in Berdyansk (Zaporozhye region) only avoided a pay cut by threatening to strike. Since March 1, 2014 bonuses for continuous service and exemplary execution of duties, amounting to around 40% of salary, were discontinued for public sector employees.
La journaliste annonce aussi des manifestations de mères et femmes de soldats.
Furthermore, massive casualties among the Ukrainian military and horrible service conditions have already sparked mass protests in the western regions of Ukraine, which are most loyal to the Kiev junta. The mothers and wives of Ukrainian soldiers are blocking international highways in the Rovno, Ternopol, Lvov and Khmelnitsky regions. It is highly likely that the furious women will march on Kiev if their loved ones do not return from the army soon.
Il faut dire le discours officiel du FMI sur le sujet, qui présente les « ajustements » à réaliser comme des pas dans la bonne direction, est à peine moins inquiétant…
IMF Survey : Ukraine Unveils Reform Program with IMF Support
Ukraine Unveils Reform Program with IMF Support
In an interview, Reza Moghadam, Director of the IMF’s European Department, emphasizes the needs for Ukraine to address deep-seated structural problems and vulnerabilities.
IMF Survey: What are the chief measures to reduce the fiscal deficit?
Moghadam: The authorities have proposed that the initial phase of fiscal adjustment rely on a mix of expenditure and revenue measures, with emphasis on the former.
• Expenditure restraint will be exercised through the suspension of unaffordable wage and pension increases planned by the previous government, public employment reduction through attrition, savings on government purchases enabled by a new procurement law, and rationalization of social assistance spending through better targeting and means testing.
• Enhanced revenues and collections will be sourced from the elimination of fraudulent tax evasion schemes, a shift to uniform (and thus less abuse-prone) excises on fuel, higher excises on alcohol and tobacco, and closing of value-added tax loopholes.
Ah oui, rationaliser l’aide sociale !
IMF Survey: How significantly will gas and heating tariffs increase?
Moghadam: Energy prices in Ukraine are exceptionally low. Currently, the gas price for households in Ukraine is $85 for one thousand cubic meter. In Russia—a gas producing and exporting economy—the price is $158 for one thousand cubic meter. The regional differences are even larger with prices in Ukraine being 4 to 9 times lower than in neighboring gas-importing economies. In January 2014, Romania’s citizens paid about $ 414, Moldova’s $ 432, and Poland’s $ 687 for one thousand cubic meter.
The envisaged gas and heating tariff increases will lead to comparatively moderate increases in the share of household budgets spent on utilities. Even after the programmed increases in 2014, the price of gas and heating for the population will remain several times lower than in other gas-importing European countries.
On va rattraper les prix exceptionnellement bas de l’énergie, mais ça sera « sans douleur »…
Et voici comment on va s’y prendre…
IMF Survey: How will the most vulnerable be protected under the program?
Moghadam: Although energy price increases are moderate and from a low starting level, it is important to cushion the impact on low-income families, so the government has embarked on an ambitious new social protection program. Eligible families will receive a benefit equal to the difference between pre-and post-increase gas and heating bills. In total, 4.5 million families—about 27 percent of the total—will be receiving government support to shield them from tariff increases through existing and new social assistance schemes.
Additionally, in cooperation with the World Bank, social assistance benefits will be re-prioritized to move to a well-targeted means-tested framework. As present, the majority of social assistance is captured by higher-income households who consume the largest share of gas and heat. For a fraction of the cost of the existing utility subsidies, the government could fund additional social assistance programs that would substantially reduce poverty.
Comme ce sont les classes moyennes qui bénéficient le plus des subventions à l’énergie, y a qu’à leur sucrer les aides et les réserver aux plus pauvres (qui eux ne se chauffent pas comme des porcs…)
Bon évidemment, c’est pas gagné. D’ailleurs les deux programmes précédents d’aide du FMI à l’Ukraine ont été interrompus devant l’incapacité des autorités à prendre les mesures de diminution des subventions.
Mais c’était avant…
IMF Survey: How confident are you of the authorities’ commitment to the reforms? How much ownership does it have? Do they have sufficient implementation capacity?
Moghadam: The authorities see the program as a historical break with a past marked by crony capitalism, pervasive corruption, and poor governance which weighed heavily on the economy. They believe that there is a window of opportunity for bold and ambitious reforms in order to transform Ukraine into a dynamic and competitive emerging market economy with a transparent government and a vibrant business environment.
Clearly there are considerable uncertainties and risks—both from outside (e.g., geopolitical tensions) and within. We have worked together with the authorities to build in measures to help mitigate these risks.
We are encouraged that the authorities have taken strong ownership of economic reforms, which are long overdue and urgently needed. Up front action on major elements of the program is a good sign in terms of their capacity for successful implementation. Ultimately, the program’s success hinges on the authorities’ unwavering commitment to economic transformation despite resistance from entrenched vested interests.
Bref, on va bien finir par y arriver
The program (…) is expected to unlock additional and sizable international official assistance, and help restore confidence among private investors.