For Israel, there’s good news and bad news after Iran deal -
By Amos Harel | Apr. 5, 2015 |
Haaretz
▻http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.650509
If the significance of the understandings, which are to be enshrined in a permanent agreement by the end of June, had to be summarized in one long sentence, it would be as follows. Iran’s leaders have agreed to halt their efforts to obtain a bomb (efforts they are still careful to deny) in exchange for two key benefits: a dramatic improvement in their economy due to the lifting of international sanctions and a major upgrade in Tehran’s standing in the region.
From an Israeli perspective, the relatively good news is that Iran’s nuclear project will be monitored for at least a decade. For now, it seems that during this time Iran’s chances of developing a nuclear weapon will decline significantly.
Even if Tehran breaks the agreement, risking renewed conflict with the international community, the restoration of its production capabilities and the monitoring of its facilities, as stipulated in the agreement, are supposed to prolong the breakout time to a bomb. This period would increase from about three months, in the absence of any agreement, to nearly a year after a permanent agreement is signed.
The bad news is not only that Iran’s economy, which has taken a double-barreled blow from both sanctions and declining oil prices, is expected to recover quickly, but that Iran has also achieved recognition from the world powers for two elements it greatly needs. The powers now acknowledge, indirectly, that Iran is a nuclear threshold state, and no less importantly, they accept Iran as a force to be reckoned with throughout the Middle East.