The Mideastwire Blog

In Syria, three years too late for many, the inexorable logic of compromise & stabilization with regime is growing
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/12/04/in-syria-three-years-too-late-for-many-the-inexorable-logic-o

There was never any good option of excluding the murderous Assad regime from the Syria equation these last few years. Slowly but surely the contours of a dramatic lessening in the bloodshed are becoming apparent.. far far too late.

Translated from our Mideastwire.com (demo via info@mideastwire.com): On December 4, the independent Az-Zaman newspaper carried the following report by its correspondent in Beirut:

“Former head of the Syrian Coalition Moaz al-Khatib said he was willing to engage in talks with the regime to put an end to the bloody conflict, in which more than 200,000 people were killed as per the figures of the Syrian Human Rights Watch. Al-Khatib is an independent Syrian opposition figure, who had resigned from the Coalition’s command in protest against foreign interventions. For her part, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s advisor Butheina Shaaban, who was part of the official Syrian delegation that recently visited Moscow, said that the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was very positive, adding that Russia has taken it upon itself to seriously seek a political solution through dialogue with the opposition, with the Syrian government’s consent.

“According to a source close to the official Syrian delegation, no timetable was set for the talks with the opposition, adding that the Russians wanted to know whether or not “we approved the idea and we told them we had no objections.” He added: “The Russians told us they had contacts and that if we approved the idea, preparations will be undertaken to stage dialogue in Moscow.” For his part, Al-Khatib said in statements over the phone: “To serve the interests of the Syrian people, we will sit together and seek the best way to rid the people of their pain and suffering.” Asked about the insistence on the request to see Al-Assad’s departure from power, he said: “How long must he stay? A month, three months, five months or six months? Once the situation is clear and once there is a clear vision to be relayed to the Syrian people, an arrangement will be made.”

“[He continued:] “This person will definitely leave, provided that his term ends in a specific way, which is something acceptable.” Among the prominent opposition figures expected to participate in this likely dialogue are former Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil who is living in Moscow and Haitham Manah who is living in Paris. Al-Khatib and Manah, along with other opposition figures, had held a meeting sponsored by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, in the context of an Egyptian initiative to solve the Syrian crisis. This was accompanied by leaks about an upcoming dialogue between oppositionists and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad…”

Sources: Obama seeks new Syria strategy - CNN.com
▻http://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/12/politics/obama-syria-strategy-review

Now officials and diplomats said Kerry has in recent months intensified discussions with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Russia about the possibility of a diplomatic tract to transition al-Assad and his inner circle out of power, while maintaining large parts of the regime and institutions of the state.

GIVE IT UP:Team O goes back in time to 3 years ago, drudges up failed policy of “transitioning” Assad | The Mideastwire Blog
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/11/13/give-it-upteam-o-goes-back-in-time-to-3-years-ago-drudges-up-

It won’t work – it did not work then and it has even less of a chance of working now…. a political settlement with Assad and Iran – i.e. a Baker-Hamilton 2014 – is the key, indispensable part of any possibly successful approach to ISIS and the region on fire.

Nasrallah sur la rhétorique en cours de nombreux chiites libanais sur la « fin des temps » et la « venue du mahdi »,
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/11/03/hezbollahs-nasrallah-brings-shiite-discourse-back-to-reality-

We do not need a religious justification to fight in Syria and we’re not fighting to implement the signs which narrations say would pave the ground for the emergence” of Imam Mahdi, said Nasrallah.

“We are rather fighting to defend Lebanon and the region and to prevent a repetition of what (Islamic State chief) Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi did against the Iraqi Albu Nimr tribe,” added Nasrallah, referring to a fresh wave of mass killings by the IS extremist group in Iraq’s Anbar province.

Hizbullah’s chief warned that “linking everything that is happening to the ‘signs of emergence’ has dangerous cultural and ideological repercussions, which can only lead to #aberration.”

TRANSLATED: Half of 52-strong “FSA” force leave Kobani fight after disputes with Kurds
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/11/03/translated-half-of-52-strong-fsa-force-leave-kobani-fight-aft

On November 3, the Saudi-owned, London-based Asharq al-Awsat daily newspaper carried the following report: “Sources at the Free Syrian Army and others from the Kurdish People Protection Units revealed that differences took place between the fighters of the Free Army and the Kurds in the Syrian city of Kobani (Ain Arab) near the Turkish borders, which is now witnessing massive battles aimed at repelling the attacks of the ISIL group.

“A source at the military council, which is affiliated to the Free Army told Asharq al-Awsat that “differences occurred between the Kurds and the Free Army’s fighters who entered Kobani from Turkey a few days ago.” They added that around 20 out of 52 fighters left the region and returned to Turkey. The differences likely occurred as a result of failing to supply the opposition members with ammunition or fighting equipment that the International Alliance had previously tossed to the Kurdish fighters by air.

“On the other hand, a source at the People Protection Units told Asharq al-Awsat that “the fighters of the Free Army that recently entered Kobani had a political rather than a military objective.” He also accused them of following Turkey’s orders…”

NYT casually mentions: The Chinese SAMs #ISIS uses were originally provided by Saudi allies+#Qatar
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/10/27/nyt-casually-mentions-the-chinese-sams-isis-uses-were-origina

What even this NY Times article fails to mention – although this is far for them in stating what has already been widely documented – is the provision of advanced weapons to syria groups VERY early on circa fall/winter 2011, including to outright terrorist groups like the more warm and fuzzy Nusra front and the less warm and fuzzy ISIS. Still a nice little caveat finally acknowledged by the NYT at the BOTTOM of their story.

“…Since at least late 2013, however, the Islamic State’s forces in Iraq appear to have acquired more sophisticated antiaircraft missile systems, including the Chinese-made FN-6, originally provided by Qatar and possibly also Saudi Arabia to Syrian rebels.

In the images purporting to show the shooting down of the Iraqi attack helicopter, on Oct. 3 in Baiji, the militant, a scarf wrapped around his face, is wielding a Chinese-made FN-6 missile system — apparently the first documented use of the weapon by Islamic State jihadists in Iraq, analysts said….”

************

This, of course, is a result of what some of us were writing about in 2011 and 2012: I wrote in May 2011 here in full: “…As a result of this idea vacuum, the Neo-LiberalCon tsunami grows by the day, publicly eschewing armed, Libyan-style intervention (although, given past statements, it is likely the neo-con wing privately hopes for this), and instead posits a policy by powerful external actors that would accelerate Syria’s internal contradictions and pressures to the breaking point.

One essential problem with this formulation is that the result, especially for the people of Syria, will likely be even worse than the kind of civil war that obtains to this day in Libya. As one Syrian activist who crossed into Lebanon casually told a Western reporter earlier this month, he could contemplate the need for sacrificing the lives of 2-3 million Syrians for freedom….”

Then later I wrote this here in the New York Times: “In Syria We Need To Bargain With The Devil”

#Arabie_saoudite

Hizbullah deputy head meets UN Syria Coordinator: Says “painfull concessions” needed by all sides…signaling eventual partition?
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/10/27/hizbullah-deputy-head-meets-un-syria-coordinator-says-painful

Fears growing about An-Nusra front reversing course, tilting towards ISIS
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/10/24/fears-growing-about-an-nusra-front-reversing-course-tilting-t

The real question is which US allies are still backing Nusra, which media continue to refer to them as somehow “moderate” and not as bad as ISIS…. and when an open alliance will be struck between ISSI and Nusra? More bad press for Turkey, Qatar and possibly Jordan?

(...)

From the original at ▻http://www.alquds.co.uk/?p=239579

On October 24, the Qatari-owned Al-Quds al-Arabi daily carried the following report by its correspondent in Antakya Hazem Salah:

(...)

“Today, there is a fear of seeing An-Nusra tilting in favor of ISIL, especially after important posts in it were surrendered to individuals known for their extremist positions that converge with ISIL’s. This increased after the assassination of the moderate Syrian leaders in An-Nusra and their replacement with Jordanians for the most part . But the worst development was the launching of the international campaign against ISIL, which provoked wide sympathy in its favor and pushed many members of An-Nusra to call for joining ISIL, knowing that some already did that without waiting for the command. The truce initiative between the factions in Syria, which was launched by the Salafi Jihadist Ansaruddin Front – that does not belong to Al-Qa’idah according to its statements, although most of its fighters are non-Syrians… – featured ceasefire between ISIL and the Islamic factions, in light of the international campaign on the Jihadists’ positions in Iraq and Syria.

“Most of the theoreticians of international Jihad blessed and signed this truce, including Abu Muhammad al-Makdissi, Abu Qatada the Palestinian and Al-Muheissni among others, knowing that the majority of the signatories were not Syria. At this level, An-Nusra’s acceptance of this initiative, its recognition of the fact that ISIL is a Mujahid faction and that An-Nusra should stand alongside it, is a dangerous sign, which in addition to the previous signs, points to An-Nusra’s possible pledging of its allegiance to ISIL, a thing that would threaten the future of the Syrian revolution, especially in the Syrian South where An-Nusra enjoys a presence that is not to be taken lightly.”

Get ready for the next Islamic State to be declared….In North Africa
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/10/23/get-ready-for-the-next-islamic-state-to-be-declared-in-north-

The bottom line as this ▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/‘islamic-state-maghreb’-following-footsteps-isis excellent Al-Akhbar article makes clear: 1) It is only a matter of time before there is such a declaration, 2) it will ONLY buttress the chaos, contingency and far-flung danger that was originally spawned by the disasterous decision by the Obama administration to allow our allies to militarize the Syria conflict in mid 2011 and, 3) Tunisia will likely come under sustained attack from three sides, west, east and south, 4) Algeria’s insurgency will grow and both Egypt and Morocco will likely feel increased pressure from the insurgency/New IS on the eastern and westn sides of this IS formation.

Very bad news in the offing seems likely for north africa, leading to a greater sense in the US especially that MORE intervention is necessary – which will only accelerate a wider collapse of the tenuous existing security architecture.

Time to partition Syria on de facto lines with the non-ISIS forces and thereby stabilize a deal with the murderous Bashar who gets to “stay” (in this formula, Turkey would stand to gain a number of objectives while losing the main one: Bashar out)…. force a KSA-Iran rapprochment (we do have leverage with KSA and can force/lubricate a deal, especially if yeman stabilization is a part of that carrot for KSA) and allow for a post US election, nuclear deal with Iran to come into effect one way or another – with or without the US senate as is possible to a great extent.

Once these high level sources of conflict are mitigated, then and ONLY then can ISIS be effectively countered.. now also possibly in North Africa as well!

The conventional wisdom about the “moderation” of Lebanon’s sunnis and Tunisian society will be severely tested in coming period
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/10/01/the-conventional-wisdom-about-the-moderation-of-lebanons-sunn

Les pays du Golfe et la Turquie vont fermer leurs frontières, avec l’aide de l’OTAN, aux “militants extrémistes” et “moins extrémistes” après les avoir bien armé et financé, les cantonnant ainsi dans une partie du “croissant chiite”: Irak, Syrie, #Liban, ce dernier risquant maintenant de se retrouver dans la même situation que les deux premiers.

Both countries have elites and popular bases which will tell you over and over again about the essential moderation of their societies. This extremely hopeful pronouncement – tunisians make up a large segment of the radical fighters in iraq and syria and Lebanon has a long history of extremism all around – will likely be severely tested in the coming period as this columnist predicts below. That’s what happens when you militerize the region after all, as those advocating a “controlled collapse” of the syrian regime have now discovered. Translated from Mideastwire.com

Traduction en anglais d’un article du Safir,

the political source is equally worried about the armed groups and the “project of the countries that are fighting them. Now that these countries have cornered the armed groups in Iraq and in Syria…, higher numbers of these radical fighters will likely be heading to the Lebanese borders and gathering along the borders where they will be barricading themselves and getting ready.” He added: “Is this what some countries really want? Do they really want to confront ISIL and their likes on the Lebanese lands? Do they want to lure the Lebanese parties into taking part in this war? Are they aware of the cost of that on this country? Will this country even remain one? Or is this exactly what they want?” The same political source concluded by saying: “We are locked in a feverish race with time. Either we break the freeze and proceed towards a joint Lebanese settlement to shield our country, or we will be eaten gradually in succession or concomitantly. There’s no difference between a white ox and a black one.”

Another attempt to humanize Nusrah Front as more moderate than #ISIS
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/09/22/another-attempt-to-humanize-nusrah-front-as-more-moderate-tha

I just don’t get it – do the #NYT and others understand what they are doing when they strive so hard to make Nusra front seem ok?

#New_York_Times

15,000 boots on the ground already…. in Jordan
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/09/20/15000-boots-on-the-ground-already-in-jordan

15.000 membres des forces spéciales étasuniennes à la frontière syro-jordanienne pour empêcher ISIS de se replier vers la Jordanie selon « al-quds al-arabi »,

We are looking more and more like we are going to step into a huge mess in syria and make things worse…. especially since there seems to be little strategic planning and little consideration of how Resistance Axis actors will react….

Very shortsighted and ill considered… plus it seems there already are plenty of boots on the ground, according to this report ▻http://www.alquds.co.uk/?p=223303

“This proposed operational framework is related to the Syrian wing of ISIL’s forces and requires, out of strategic and defensive caution, the deployment of military forces along the Jordanian-Syrian border to protect Jordan… In parallel, the paperwork required by the relatively “long residence” of more than 15,000 American Special Forces on the Jordanian border with Syria was completed, including the provision of food, water and logistic support. These forces might be deployed on the border near Daraa, in light of Jordanian fears of seeing the extremist fighters “fleeing” to Jordan if they are cornered around Daraa, Deir Ezzor and Raqqa…”

L’extraordinaire aplomb des officiels étasuniens,

Les États-Unis vont livrer des armes à l’armée libanaise
▻http://www.lapresse.ca/international/moyen-orient/201408/14/01-4791756-les-etats-unis-vont-livrer-des-armes-a-larmee-libanaise.php

« Les États-Unis vont bientôt livrer aux Forces armées libanaises (FAL) des armes offensives et défensives », a déclaré l’ambassadeur David Hale dans un communiqué.

« Cette assistance améliorera la capacité des FAL à sécuriser les frontières du Liban, à protéger la population libanaise et à combattre les groupes extrémistes violents », a-t-il ajouté.

Washington fournit des armes légères à l’armée libanaise contre les jihadistes
▻http://www.lapresse.ca/international/moyen-orient/201408/14/01-4791756-les-etats-unis-vont-livrer-des-armes-a-larmee-libanaise.php

« Le Liban a demandé, les États-Unis ont fourni », a affirmé l’ambassadeur américain David Hale vendredi, lors d’une brève cérémonie à l’aéroport de Beyrouth, peu après l’arrivée d’un avion militaire C-130 transportant l’aide. « Soutenir l’armée et les services de sécurité libanais est à la tête des priorités des États-Unis », a-t-il ajouté devant des militaires libanais et la presse.

Selon une source militaire à l’ambassade américaine, Washington a livré entre jeudi et vendredi 1 500 fusils d’assaut M16, 480 lance-roquettes antichars et environ 60 mortiers et des obus de 81 et 120 mm.

« D’autres mortiers, des lance-grenades, des mitrailleuses et des roquettes antichars vont également arriver », a souligné l’ambassadeur David Hale.

The Islamic State effect: Lebanon’’s new security symbiosis
By #Nicholas_Noe – 28 Aug 14
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/the-islamic-state-effect-lebanons-new-security-symbiosis-by-n

The full report from the European Council on Foreign Relations can be found here:
▻http://www.ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_the_islamic_state_effect_lebanons_new_security_symbiosis302

*******

Key Findings:

– Several months before the Islamic State (IS) surge in Mosul, a preponderant majority of Lebanon’’s political elite, backed by a rare regional and international consensus, recognized the common threat that IS and its fellow travelers represent and, as a result, coordinated an effective security response built, first, on a new power-sharing agreement and, second, on a recognition that violent Sunni extremist groups are best fought by Sunnis themselves, especially within Lebanon’s borders.

– Had this arrangement not taken hold in March 2014, it is likely that an IS surge in Lebanon post-Mosul – via the Bekka township of Arsal and/or the Northern city of Tripoli – would have significantly fractured the Lebanese state and led to a level of sustained fighting not seen since the end of the Lebanese Civil War in 1990.

– An unprecedented level of US and European intelligence sharing with all Lebanese security agencies – including those perceived as close to the militant Shiite movement #Hezbollah –played and is still playing a significant, positive role in shoring up Lebanon’s security architecture.

– At the same time, these gains are crucially dependent on the continued success of Hezbollah’s military actions along the border and in Syria against violent Sunni extremists – much as Hezbollah is now finding itself dependent on the gains of Lebanon’s security agencies, even those formerly at odds with it.

– The new security symbiosis that has emerged is fragile, with longstanding domestic, regional and international conflicts barely concealed for the moment. A more powerful surge by IS or renewed enmity by any combination of larger geopolitical actors like Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US could overwhelm the local arrangement.

– Building further on what is working now could, if not properly balanced, aid and protect Hezbollah to such an extent that its authoritarian, chauvinistic and violent aspects – at home and abroad – are encouraged and accelerated.

– The most effective way to blunt this outcome and further buffer Lebanon from IS is to provide the quantity and quality of weapons and training that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has long requested but which, still to this day, have been denied largely as a result of misplaced and counter-productive concerns regarding any change in the Qualitative Military Edge between Israel and Lebanon. More Hellfire missiles for the LAFs hopelessly outdated (and now outgunned) Cessnas will simply not do.

– Either way, Hezbollah is now playing a starring role in the emerging regional containment strategy for IS, despite its terrorist labeling by some actors.

– As this is happening, attitudes in Beirut are changing on all sides and in an unprecedented fashion: Key Hezbollah officials now say, privately, that the US is a “factor for stability” in Lebanon while key Future movement leaders also now acknowledge, in private, that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will likely have to stay if a durable regional response to IS and #JAH is to be put in place. Both parties are only now, however, beginning the difficult process of preparing their respective constituencies for what would be quite dramatic and politically difficult about-faces.

#Liban #ISIS

Wall Street Journal Story on Rise of #ISIS Focuses ONLY on far less important Assad regime role; ZERO mention of the Gulf and Turkey roles which were the key
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/08/23/wall-street-journal-story-on-rise-of-isis-focuses-only-on-far

Very disappointed by Maria Abi-Habib’s long piece in the wall street journal Here:

▻http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/assad-policies-aided-rise-of-islamic-state-militant-group-1408739733?mobil

She is an excellent reporter but to have such a long story with ZERO about what most analysts and government folks seem to agree on now: the part of the story involving Assad going easy and even facilitating ISIS is significantly less important to understanding ISIS’s rise than the massive support garnered from Turkey and from funds that originated in Gulf countries. Not to mention the joint decision early on – with tacit approval from the US – to lubricate a militarization of the Syrian uprising (key actors in the US believed, very wrongly, that Assad would fall quickly under ramped up military pressure – this proved as false). Having just been in Washington, this is certainly widely held now, finally… its obvious and THE key part of the story.

I have no idea how Maria could have left out this.

She claims: “This account of how the Islamic State benefited from the complex three-way civil war in Syria between the government, the largely secular, moderate rebels and the hard-core Islamist groups was pieced together from interviews with Syrian rebel commanders and opposition figures, Iraqi government officials and Western diplomats, as well as al Qaeda documents seized by the U.S. military in Iraq.”

This is maybe 10-20% of the story.

#Syrie #Turquie #Golfe

ISIS Atrocities Started With Saudi Support for Salafi Hate - Ed Husain
▻http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/opinion/isis-atrocities-started-with-saudi-support-for-salafi-hate.html

Let’s be clear: Al Qaeda, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, Boko Haram, the Shabab and others are all violent Sunni Salafi groupings. For five decades, Saudi Arabia has been the official sponsor of Sunni Salafism across the globe.

Jihadist Leader, recently released in Jordan, openly coordinating fighting in Russia, Syria
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/08/06/jihadist-leader-recently-released-in-jordan-openly-coordinati

Un nouveau #combattant_de_la_liberté made in USA

Staunch US and European ally Jordan released this major jihadist leader and now apparently its cool to coordinate the international jihadist fronts, especially in Russia and Syria.

So its not surprising that matters are apparently heading quickly for a wide open blow back that many of us have been talking about for years – and the central role in creating all of this will be the militerazation of the arab spring that was first sponsored by NATO in Libya then by the West and its monarchy allies in the gulf in syria. These are the original fields for how the arab revolts turned into the spiral mess of violence, contradiction and wide open warfare that the region and, soon one thinks, beyond faces.
****************

▻https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XQPRYqUszg8

Jordanian jihadist cleric Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi has urged insurgents in Russia’s North Caucasus to support and obey their new leader Aliaskhab Kebekov (aka Abu Mukhammad).

“We call on our brothers in the Caucasus to gather around their new leader, help him, obey him and do not disobey him,” al-Maqdisi said in a video address posted on YouTube and embedded on North Caucasus jihadist websites Kavkaz-Tsentr and Islamdin on 4 August.

Al-Maqdisi was speaking in Arabic with Russian subtitles. The seven-minute and 22-second video is entitled in Russian “Sheikh Al-Makdisiy’s address to the mojahedin of the Caucasus. Shaaban/1435 [June 2014]“.

“Indeed, we are now suffering due to discord in the fields of jihad and due to disobedience of mojahedin leaders caused by personal opinions, personal passions and faulty doubts. I call on mojahedin brothers in the Caucasus to unite around their leader, obey him, and shun disagreements and anything which leads to discord,” he said.

Al-Maqdisi thanked Aliaskhab Kebekov for sending his people to fight government forces in Syria.

“We were very glad that despite the weight of jihad and despite difficulties facing mojahedin in the Caucasus, he did not forget Muslim brothers in Syria and sent them some of the best mojahedin from the Caucasus. He sent people from his groups and they took part in jihad in the best possible way. They were a model of whole-hearted bravery and selflessness. They also were a model of moderate position and lack of extremes and excessiveness. We indeed need this in jihad, especially as disagreements emerged in the fields of jihad and voices of excessiveness started to appear… We thank our brother amir [Kebekov] for this and we thank all the Caucasus mojahedin for taking part in jihad in Sham [Syria],” Al-Maqdisi said.

He urged the Caucasus insurgents to be patient.

“We and the mojahedin in the Caucasus know that the road is long and difficult and that jihad in the Caucasus has its difficulties. Especially now when battlefields expanded and support to the Caucasus decreased and many are busy fighting in other battlefields. We know that the road is difficult, that the situation of the mojahedin in the Caucasus is one of the most difficult. Therefore, we urge them to be firm and patient, and unite around their leaders,” he said.

Al-Maqdisi also voiced his condolences over the death of Kebekov’s predecessor Dokka Umarov, whose death was officially confirmed by insurgents on 18 March 2014.

Israeli analyst suggests Hizbullah is worried about Hamas performance; Acknowledges wide targeting of MILITARY sites in 2006 and by Hamas NOW
►http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/israeli-analyst-suggests-hizbullah-is-worried-about-hamas-per

This Israeli analyst, with the curiously or poorly named, tel-aviv based “levantine group,” attempts to make the claim that Hizbullah is disappointed or frustrated by Hamas’s performance.

I strongly disagree after two weeks of interviews here in Beirut with a wide range of officials from all sides including hizbullah. Indeed, why should the party by “disappointed?”

Hamas is trying to do the impossible by fighting on essentially a small beach of territory some few kilometers wide, with ZERO depth, with rockets that pale in comparison to both the AMOUNT and TYPE that hizbullah possesses (the swarm effect and the better tech is what Hizbullah is likely banking on for the next conflict , even if davids sling is introduced).

Bottom line: Hamas’s fight now is NOT being viewed as anything close to a test run of the next Hizbullah-Israel war.

One useful thing this analyst says however: he acknowledges something which is largely NEVER reported on but which is crucial to analysing the balance of power in the region. Hamas is mimicking Hizbullah’s approach to target MILITARY installations as a key aspect of their campaign.

Another Redline, falling: Transfer of weapons to Hizbullah…. the geopolitical border has already fallen | The Mideastwire Blog
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/another-redline-falling-transfer-of-weapons-to-hizbullah-the-

One of the least discussed, but perhaps most vital field developments of the past few months, and especially the past few weeks, is that Israel has yet another serious problem on its hand vis-a-vis Hizbullah: With Hizbullah fighting in Syria, and “reports” and speculations and off record comments from Hizbullah “sources” saying a counter strike would likely come from WITHIN syria, but with Hizbullah manpower and expertise and command and control, there is no longer really an effective distinction between Syria and so called Hizbullah controlled areas when considered from several angles.

This means the geo-political discourse long pursued by the Israelis to keep things contained – i.e. if syria transfers advanced weapons to Hizbullah IN LEBANON, then this could lead (and has led in syria at least!) to an Israeli strike(s), is all effectively dead as both an effective deterrent and as a tactic of international relations.

Hizbullah is fighting IN SYRIA

Hizbullah now presumably has access (or easy pathways should push come to shove) to most if not all weaponry in sryia

Attentat de Bir el-Abed : les responsables dénoncent une tentative de destabilisation du Liban
▻http://www.lorientlejour.com/article/822944/attentat-de-bir-el-abed-les-responsables-denoncent-une-tentative-de-d

Les responsables libanais ont condamné, mardi, l’attentat perpétré vers 11h à Bir el-Abed, un fief du Hezbollah dans la banlieue sud de Beyrouth.

Cet attentat à la voiture piégée qui a fait une cinquantaine de blessés, dont deux graves, vise à destabiliser le Liban, ont averti la plupart d’entre eux.

Dozens wounded in Beirut blast on the eve of Ramadan
►http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/explosion-rocks-beirut-southern-suburb

http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/5cols/leading_images/783768-01-08.jpg

It remains unclear who was behind Tuesday’s blast, but there is no shortage of suspects.

Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar pointed the finger at Israel, which launched 34-day war on Lebanon in 2006 which reduced much of Dahiyeh to rubble.

But Salafi radicals affiliated with Syria’s anti-government rebels are also suspected to have been behind a series of recent attacks on Lebanon.

The bomb was the second major attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah maintains strong support, in recent weeks.

What Hizbullah learned from the Gaza War II
▻http://mideastwire.wordpress.com/2013/01/19/what-hizbullah-learned-from-the-gaza-war-ii

Of course, there is some exaggeration here in this analysis from abna news agency… and there is, as always, some measure of over confidence in regards to the understanding of the enemy…. but I think this analysis might not be so far from the truth and either way, reflects in general, Hizbullah’s strategic understanding of the Gaza War II.

Ce billet est très intéressant, c’est une position que l’on pourra entendre bien au-delà d’analystes iraniens (et même s’il ne s’agissait que des Iraniens, connaître leur point de vue serait déjà bien utile).