• Virologist Christian Drosten: “I Am Quite Apprehensive about What Might Otherwise Happen in Spring and Summer” - DER SPIEGEL

    DER SPIEGEL: The issue of school closures was the subject of hours of debate on Tuesday during the meeting between Merkel and the state governors. Why has it been so difficult for scientists to convince people on this issue?

    Drosten : To be honest, even without our study on viral loads in children, I would not have considered it likely that children would be spared by #SARS-CoV-2. From a purely biological perspective, the mucous membrane doesn’t change all that much during puberty. Which means that children can also get infected – and be contagious. That so many doubts about that fact have arisen was always, and still is, confusing to me.

    #enfants #écoles

    • À propos du taux de reproduction et du fait qu’il faut le diminuer de manière plus agressive :

      Currently, that number is at 0.9. It is great that we have finally managed to push it back down below 1, so that the number of cases can begin to drop. But 0.9 isn’t enough if we want to quickly loosen the brakes. With an R of 0.9, it takes about a month to reduce the number of infections by half. That is too long. We should try, through an intensification of the shutdown, to get the number down to 0.7. Then, the case numbers will drop by half in just a week, and we can get to a point where we can stop the spread of B.1.1.7 or at least give ourselves a head start.

    • La stratégie d’éradication (viser zéro infections) devrait être le but :

      DER SPIEGEL: Do you think that the so-called Zero-COVID strategy, the goal of sinking the number of new infections to zero, is the right way forward?

      Drosten: I do think it would be possible with a significant effort. The virus, of course, would continue to flare up, just as we have seen in China and Australia. But it would absolutely be worthwhile to at least identify zero new infections as a target. Primarily because I am quite apprehensive about what might otherwise happen in the spring and summer.

      puis de préciser : ce qu’il craint, c’est qu’une fois les personnes les plus fragiles vaccinées, il y ait une grosse pression sociale et politique pour lever les restrictions, et ainsi laisser circuler très très largement le virus si on n’a pas, d’ici là, réduit considérablement le nombre de contaminations (et ce sera alors un massacre, cette fois chez les jeunes). Question abordée ici :