Nate Silver and Political Data : Every One of His State-level Presidential Predictions Proved True |…

tbn PUBLIC DOMAIN 8/11/2012

Nate Silver and Political #Data : Every One of His State-level Presidential #Predictions Proved True | Singularity Hub
►http://singularityhub.com/2012/11/08/nate-silver-and-big-data-every-one-of-his-state-level-presidential-p

A former baseball statistician, Silver has made his name by aggregating state level polling data, and predicting the likelihood of victory by adjusting for different factors that have historically influenced electoral performance. He consistently rejected the conventional wisdom that the race was tied, and for that, he was cast as a left-wing nut peddling bad science.

Nate Silver et la #prévision par les #statistiques
►http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-americaines/article/2012/11/02/nate-silver-le-statisticien-promu-gourou-de-la-prediction-politique_1784852_

Donc on parle beaucoup de ce statisticien venu du baseball, qui a eu tout bon comme Paul le poulpe naguère. On en tire des leçons scientifiques même comme relevé par @rezo : ►http://tomroud.cafe-sciences.org/2012/11/07/5-lecons-scientifiques-du-succes-de-nate-silver

Il y a eu un film récemment « Moneyball » sur les premiers statisticiens de ce sport à Oakland, dans l’équipe des A’s, pas mal (Brad Pitt dans le rôle de Billy Beane)
►http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball:_The_Art_of_Winning_an_Unfair_Game #sport #élections #US #chiffres #démocratie

D’après Wired « Obama Wins Nerdiest Election Ever »
►http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/11/nerdiest-election-ever/all

Sujet déjà évoqué là : ►http://seenthis.net/messages/85122

tbn PUBLIC DOMAIN

tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN 10/11/2012

pas grand chose à voir, sinon Oakland :) ►http://www.liberation.fr/economie/2012/11/04/oakland-fait-de-la-subsistance_858013

tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN
tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN 18/11/2012

au rayon les geeks et Obama, une enquête : “When the nerds go marching in”
▻http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/11/when-the-nerds-go-marching-in/265325
et une autre de Mother Jones “Under the Hood of Team Obama’s Tech Operation” ▻http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/inside-obama-campaign-tech-operation

tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN
tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN 25/11/2012

►http://seenthis.net/messages/99267

tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN
tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN 29/07/2013

Nate Silver, data guru returns to sport
▻http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/285f77a0-f518-11e2-94e9-00144feabdc0.html

tbn @thibnton PUBLIC DOMAIN
Fil @fil 11/12/2013

Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile
▻http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/12/09/latin-america-gets-its-own-538-com-and-it-beats-the-polls-in-chile
With different methodologies, Linzer’s, Silver’s and Wang’s forecasts were more accurate than those of any given pollster. They proved that aggregating polls could be more useful than using a single poll to predict the results of an election.
This prompted us, at TresQuintos, to develop a model of our own. We tested it on the 2013 presidential election in Chile, which took place Nov. 17. While we followed the methods of the poll aggregators named above, our model is mainly informed by statistics and political science literature (e.g. Andrew Gelman and Simon Jackman). Our forecast, too, was more accurate than the prediction of any given pollster.

Fil @fil

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