Why is a ceasefire so difficult in Aleppo ?
▻http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/why-ceasefire-so-difficult-aleppo-2036463862
But why then has the main body of the Syrian opposition in exile - the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) - as well as all the major rebel groups operating in Aleppo come out and flatly rejected it?
The reasons are twofold; stated and unstated.
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First off is the presence of powerful jihadist groups who hold strategic military fronts and exercise real power and influence over the flow of battle. Those groups have the final say over any deal, and their veto is a given, as their ideology - incompatible with any diplomacy or negotiations - sees only an armed holy struggle to set up Islamic emirates. They are incapable of any compromise, even short term, and have actively scuttled local ceasefires around Damascus, like in the Yarmouk camp. Notably, the areas which don’t have a significant jihadist influence are the ones where ceasefires have successfully taken hold.
Their doctrine is either war or victory, and their continued presence and domination on the Syrian scene is the main reason why any temporary truces or an eventual political settlement to the conflict is almost assured of failure. Getting rid of them will not be easy, and may in fact prove impossible. While the US-led coalition has launched limited airstrikes against the most potent of those groups, the al-Qaeda linked Jabhet al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham, they have only been targeted at cells suspected of plotting against Western interests. There is a tacit recognition that weakening those jihadist groups will automatically give the Syrian regime and its allies the upper hand in the conflict.
Another major reason behind the difficulty of ceasefires is the nature of civil war itself; the “warlordism” aspect. Previously obscure individuals, usually from humble backgrounds, rose to positions of prominence, power and wealth through years of war. They control militias, resources, territory and have say over the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. It will not be easy to convince them to give all that up for the greater good, unless they are guaranteed a slice of any eventual pie. In fact, many of those warlords have a vested interest in the indefinite continuation of war, even though very often their only real role in it is inter-factional fighting over control of territory. Warlordism is almost exclusive to the rebels, but powerful loyalist militia who have profiteered from smuggling, looting and racketeering on strategic checkpoints are also an issue, even though their commanders are easier to bring under the fold of central decision-making.