2023 Gazantiep Earthquake :
An Exercise in Corruption (2).
▻https://twitter.com/WarInUkraineYet/status/1623815342207168512
Let’s talk more about these extremely sketchy construction amnesties, and what they offered.
In very simple terms, the Turkish government allowed constructors to be retroactively exempt buildings with a small fee.
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Collapsed apartment blocks ...
This scheme netted more than 3$bn to the central government, all while 50% of buildings in Turkey were built in violation of seismic regulations.
In fact, just a few days before the earthquake, a draft law was proposed to parliament which would grant further amnesty.
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A brawl inside Turkish Parl...
Circling back to 2020 and the destruction in Izmir, a report from BBC revealed that 672,000 buildings had benefited from the construction amnesty.
The Riza Bey Apartment for example was built on a marsh with poor materials, yet was granted an amnesty along with many more.
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Rescue crews operating in t...
Since 1948, these “zoning amnesty” laws have been passed 19 times, netting billions to the country’s coffers and popularity to the government.
The Minister of Urban Planning even commented that “pardoned buildings don’t have to be durable or solid”, unsurprisingly.
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Minister of Environment and...
Let’s quickly touch on the earthquake tax.
Roughly speaking, the earthquake tax is an additional tax on a number of financial transactions, from paying income tax to purchasing plane tickets.
Created in order to fund a disasters fund, this tax has come under scrutiny.
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Deadly wildfires raging in ...
That’s because the money generated has been continually misused.
Former Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek admitted it was used to fund highway construction.
President Erdogan said it’s “no one’s business” how the funds gathered from the earthquake tax were being used.
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President Erdogan meeting w...
A constantly violated seismic code, a government profiting off of those violations and an earthquake tax going anywhere.
A recipe for disaster, combined with routine governmental mismanagement and local corruption.
That’s what led to an absolutely massive catastrophe.
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A collapsed commercial cent...
Now it’s time to touch on Turkey’s long-serving President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
While frequently lambasting local authorities and constructors for “murderous negligence”, much of this is the result of AKP policy.
In particular, the continuous push for economic expansion.
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President Erdogan announcin...
Turkey is a growing economy, and much of that growth has been fueled by construction projects, both government funded and private ones.
Highways (with earthquake tax income), ports, bridges and, of course, massive residential complexes for a very large population.
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A portion of the TAG highw...
This growth has led to cutting corners, and the disastrous consequences of that push for development at all costs have now become clear.
That, accompanied of course with endemic corruption, is what made this buildings weak enough to tumble one after another.
10/18
Destroyed buildings and pav...
The question now is how will the Turkish government handle this and what the political side-effects of this massive tragedy be.
Generally, Erdogan has managed to rally the country during disasters and retain or expand his power.
I’m not sure it’ll work this time.
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Erdogan addressing supporte...
First of all, the scale of the disaster makes it difficult for the government to avoid missteps.
There’s already complaints from Hatay that they’re being forgotten.
Sooner or later, the government’s rescue efforts will give way to failures before the disaster struck.
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Man searching for his belon...
Additionally, I fully expect Erdogan to try and clamp down on dissent.
I don’t believe May elections will be postponed, although we may see much more aggressive authoritarianism.
We’ve already seen the temporary filtering of Twitter, expects this to only be the start.
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Turkish riot police using t...
Could this work?
Maybe, there’s a real possibility Erdogan manages to scrape through this crisis, however I wouldn’t bet on it.
The opposition is more united than usual, and their relatively consistent approach on seismic safety makes them seem like a solution.
14/18
Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamog...
Attempting to use foreign policy to gather support through expansionist rhetoric is unlikely to work out this time.
The solidarity shown by those branded as “enemies” of Turkey hurts the more aggressive policy that Erdogan has tried to follow on the world stage.
15/18
Greeks rescue specialists a...
I expect we’ll see very quick reactions, like firing top officials and announcing generous emergency subsidies to try and stabilise the situation.
Once again, the first month or so will be crucial to see whether Erdogan will survive in May’s presidential election.
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Turkish man casting his bal...
Erdogan is a naturally divisive leader, both internally and externally, something which doesn’t suit a time of crisis.
I’m not saying it’s a done deal, however if Erdogan doesn’t play his cards well he may find himself in really big troubles very, very soon.
17/18
Erdogan giving a speech at ...
Keep your eyes on Turkey, an already precarious electoral situation has just been completely derailed by a truly biblical disaster.
It’s impact will not be confined to the collapsed apartments of Antakya and Kahramanmaraş, and I believe we have a long way to go still.
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