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Global migration figures higher than previously thought, study finds

US researchers reveal that up to 87 million people migrate every five years.

Over a five-year period, about one in 80 people around the world migrate to another country, researchers have revealed, in a study that shows more than a quarter of that movement is down to people returning to their country of birth.

Global migration is difficult to measure, with data often lacking for developing countries and inaccurate for others.

But a pair of researchers in the US say they have come up with a model that provides the most reliable “big picture” view of human migration yet. Crucially, they say, it takes into account the “churn” of people moving into and out of countries, something previous global estimates had not included.

“Policies that are set based on a quota of a number of people who enter the country miss out on the fact that you should also be expecting a lot of the existing migrant population to be leaving the country,” said Dr Jonathan Azose, a co-author of the study from the University of Washington.

The study, published in the journal PNAS, reveals a model for estimating migration around the world between 1990 and 2015, broken down into five-year chunks. The team say they were able to show the model worked by comparing its results with high-quality migration data from Europe.

A key problem with the previous leading global migration estimates, says Azose, is that the approach looked at overall changes in the net number of immigrants in a country over time, without taking into account that many individuals left and others arrived, resulting in underestimates of movement, something the new model tackles.

It suggests that between 67 million and 87 million people, including refugees, migrated for each five-year chunk – far higher than previous global estimates of 34m-46 m migrations – and corresponding to 1.13%-1.29% of the global population.

The team note that while absolute numbers of people migrating appear to have risen, there has been little change in the proportion of the world’s population who are on the move. That said, key origins and destinations change over time: for example,movement of Syrians in Saudi Arabia to Turkey between 2010 and 2015 were a leading contributor to “transit” migrations, while migration of Syrians from Syria to Turkey and Lebanon were among the largest emigration movements in that period.

The new study suggests that while migration to a new country makes up the biggest proportion of human movement, return migration – in which individuals return to their country of birth – accounted for between 26% and 31% of migration in each five-year period.

However, the team admit the new model has limitations, including the fact that different countries require individuals to stay there for different lengths of time to be registered as a migrant, and figures for the total number of migrants in each country might not be accurate to start with, meaning possible errors in the data used.

But the team say their work could help researchers delve deeper into what causes people to migrate and help them build predictive models for this.

Dr Nando Sigona, an expert in international migration and forced displacement at the University of Birmingham, who was not involved in the research, welcomed the study.

“Estimating migration flows is extremely difficult. Data are limited and incomplete, especially in less economically developed countries. This contributes to a perception in the west that all migration flows are directed towards the global north,” he said.

While the new model had limitations, he added, it offered a more rounded view of global migration, including showing movements between countries in the south and highlighting the large proportion of return journeys. “Finally,” he said, “it shows a world which is more dynamic and on the move than previously thought.”

▻https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/24/global-migration-figures-higher-than-previously-thought-study-finds
#estimations

Lien vers l’article/étude:
►https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/12/18/1722334116

Déclaration au Conseil de sécurité le 6/03.
Pour l’instant, le dernier procès verbal en ligne est celui de la veille (5/03)
▻http://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/2015

Le compte-rendu est sous embargo.

Le communiqué à la presse donne une idée des échanges, mais sans faire référence aux cadavres de civils.
▻http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11809.doc.htm

La première déclaration de Samantha Power est ainsi résumée :

SAMANTHA POWER (United States) said that although there had been a reduction in violence after 18 February, Russian-backed separatists started violating the package of measures with deadly attacks since day one. There had been widespread obstruction by the separatists to OSCE monitors, and Russia had pretended that it had no heavy weaponry in Ukraine in hopes of deflecting international attention. Russian convoys that were supposed to go out of Ukraine were going in. If they were indeed humanitarian convoys, why were inspections not permitted, she questioned. The separatists had established a track record of using the lull to regroup and resupply, but the international community was carefully watching what happened this time. Crimea constituted not only the violation of sovereignty by a permanent member of the Security Council, but also provided a preview of the rule facing eastern Ukraine under the separatists. To avoid an Orwellian world where peace was professed but not practiced, implementation of the Minsk agreements was urgent.

Des échanges à propos du sort de Nadia Savtchenko donne l’occasion à Vitaly Tchourkine de placer :

Making a further statement, Mr. CHURKIN (Russian Federation) (…) said that Ms. Savchenko was accused of involvement in the killing of two journalists and her detention was not illegal, as it resulted after a full and transparent legal process. It was ironic that the United States, with its record in Guantanamo Bay, pointed fingers at the Russian Federation.

CR en ligne
▻http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/PV.7400&referer=http://www.un.org/depts/dhl/resguide/scact2015_table_en.htm&Lang=F

Les conséquences dévastatrices de ce conflit ont été clairement mises en lumière dans le dernier rapport du Haut-Commissariat des Nations Unies aux droits de l’homme. Plus de 1,7 million de personnes ont été déplacées et il y a plus de 5 800 morts – un bilan des victimes qui ne tient pas compte des centaines de corps découverts après la fin du siège meurtrier de Debaltseve mené par les séparatistes appuyés par la Russie. Un rapport rédigé par le Bureau de la coordination des affaires humanitaires à la fin du mois dernier fait état de 500 corps retrouvés dans des maisons et des caves à la fin du siège – 500 corps. Des maisons et des caves où des gens s’étaient réfugiés pour se mettre à l’abri des tirs incessants de mortiers et de roquettes de fabrication russe qui se sont abattus sur les habitants de la ville, pris au piège. Plusieurs semaines après le début du siège, à la fin du mois de janvier, le chef autoproclamé des séparatistes appuyé par la Russie a annoncé que quiconque tenterait de sortir se retrouverait sous le feu croisé de leur artillerie. À partir de ce jour, a-t-il dit, la route ferait l’objet de tirs incessants. Les habitants de la ville n’avaient donc d’autre choix que de risquer leur vie en restant ou de la risquer en partant. Des civils ont été tués dans les deux cas, et, je le répète, 500 corps ont été retrouvés dans des maisons et des caves où des gens s’étaient réfugiés.

Le rapport de l’UN OCHA
Ukraine : Situation report No.29 as of 27 February 2015 - Ukraine | ReliefWeb
▻http://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-situation-report-no29-27-february-2015

Situation Overview
The 15 February ceasefire in eastern Ukraine remains fragile. Humanitarian partners report that many people in Debaltseve have heavily suffered from the recent intensification of fighting: many are traumatized and have had little or no access to assistance or basic services for weeks. OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) reports that almost all the buildings in the city centre were destroyed or heavily damaged. De facto authorities report that the remaining 7,000 inhabitants, including 1,000 children, and 2,000 returnees, have extremely limited access to running water, basic services or heating. 500, mostly civilian, corpses had been found in houses and cellars in Debaltseve and authorities have requested body bags from international organizations operating in the area. The pre-conflict population of the city stood at more than 25,000 people.

Sans #paywall : ▻http://untribune.com/un-peacekeepers-observe-idf-interacting-al-nusra-golan

Dec. 4, 2014 – UN troops monitoring the 1974 ceasefire between Israel and Syria have witnessed interactions between members of the Israeli Defence Forces and the Al Nusra Front who have taken over a large part of the Golan Heights.

The information is included in a report by Ban Ki-moon to the Security Council issued on Thursday on the activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Force. The peacekeeping mission was forced to relocate its troops from the Golan because of a deteriorating security situation which included 45 Fijian troops kidnapped by the rebels in August.

In the report Ban writes, “Following the evacuation of UNDOF personnel from position 85 on 28 August, UNDOF sporadically observed armed members of the opposition interacting with IDF across the ceasefire line in the vicinity of United Nations position 85.” [see map]

Le dernier rapport, très intéressant : ▻http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2014/859

[...] On 23 September, in the morning, IDF informed UNDOF that it had shot down a Syrian air force aircraft, alleging that it had crossed the ceasefire line. United Nations personnel did not observe the fighter aircraft over the area of separation or crossing the ceasefire line but saw a mid-air explosion followed by debris falling to the ground in an area east of Jaba in the area of limitation on the Bravo side.

[...]

11. In the course of fighting and clashes between the Syrian armed forces and armed groups on 4 September, seven mortar rounds, fired from areas known to be strongholds of the armed groups, landed in and near United Nations observation post 56. Peacekeepers went into shelter. On 6 September, two individuals approached observation post 54 and made gestures of cutting throats towards the United Nations personnel at the post. The same was reported by United Nations position 80 on 18 October. UNDOF deployed peacekeepers at observation post 54 to enhance protection of the military observers. On 16 September, 11 armed individuals approached the gate of United Nations position Hermon South. They attempted to gain information about the personnel strength of the position and if or when United Nations personnel would vacate it. In addition, they were understood to be seeking refuge in the position, which was denied. The individuals stayed for about 40 minutes and thereafter left the area. On 4 October, two rounds, possibly fired by a tank from a north-eastern direction, landed 50 m south of United Nations observation post 51. The United Nations personnel at the post went into shelter immediately and heard a similar type of round land nearby.

[...]

On 27 October, position 80 observed two IDF soldiers east of the technical fence returning from the direction of the Alpha line towards the technical fence. UNDOF observed IDF opening the technical fence gate and letting two individuals pass from the Bravo to the Alpha side. Following the evacuation of UNDOF personnel from position 85 on 28 August, UNDOF sporadically observed armed members of the opposition interacting with IDF across the ceasefire line in the vicinity of United Nations position 85.

[...]

31. Armed opposition groups and other armed groups have expanded the area under their control in the area of separation, and remain present along the section of the main road connecting the two UNDOF camps. The crossing between the Alpha and the Bravo sides remains closed. It is critical that countries with influence continue to strongly convey to the armed groups in the UNDOF area of operations the need to cease any actions that jeopardize the safety and security of United Nations personnel on the ground, including firing at peacekeepers, threatening and detaining them, and to accord United Nations personnel the freedom to carry out their mandate safely and securely.

UN reports Israeli support for Syria rebels
▻http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2014/1207/UN-reports-Israeli-support-for-Syria-rebels

The Israeli military has been in direct contact with Syrian rebels for more than 18 months, facilitating the treatment of wounded fighters and at times exchanging parcels and ushering uninjured Syrians into Israel, according to UN reports.

The quarterly reports bolster speculation over the past year that Israel’s humanitarian assistance to more than 1,000 wounded Syrians had also opened a channel of communication with Syrian rebels.

Mais il ne faut pas s’y tromper ! Ce n’est pas que les « rebelles » sont douteux, c’est Israel qui défend les droits humains !