• La bourse à la rescousse : j’dis ça j’dis rien, mais le Hamas, c que des petits salopiots | The Economist | 05.12.23

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/05/did-hamas-make-millions-trading-the-october-7th-attacks

    Caught short

    Did Hamas make millions trading the October 7th attacks?

    Researchers highlight suspicious activity in New York and Tel Aviv


    In the run-up to its attack on Israel on October 7th, Hamas maintained tight operational security. The timing of the assault blindsided Israel’s army and intelligence services, and appears to have surprised even some of Hamas’s political leaders. However, a new working paper by Robert Jackson Jr, a former commissioner of America’s Securities and Exchange Commission, and Joshua Mitts of Columbia University suggests that someone had enough advance knowledge of the plan to make a small fortune profiting from a crash in the Israeli stockmarket.

    The authors analysed trading patterns in Israeli shares in the weeks before the attack, and found anomalies consistent with a grim form of informed trading. Perhaps the most striking example is a surge in short sales—bets that a security’s price will fall—of a relatively illiquid exchange-traded fund (etf), which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker eis, and tracks an index of Israeli share prices.
    [...]

    Related: Inside Hamas’s sprawling financial empire

    Et si c’était un membre du gouv Israelien :-) ?

    Ah mais là, on saura jamais, comme eux c’est pas des terroristes, le secret bancaire jouera.

    • cf. https://seenthis.net/messages/1030140

      Et si c’était un membre du gouv Israelien :-) ?

      Ah mais là, on saura jamais, comme eux c’est pas des terroristes, le secret bancaire jouera.

      Méchante langue ! l’autorité de contrôle de la bourse israélienne a ouvert une enquête.

      Les auteurs, spécialement le second dans ses interviews, ne sont pas du tout convaincus que ce soit le Hamas qui ait bénéficié de ce « délit d’initié »…

    • merci @simplicissimus ; j’apprends au passage une nouvelle loi de la nature :

      We know that Batteridge’s law of headlines says:

      Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.

      It was thereby not Hamas which profited from unusual short positions but likely someone else.

      Ceci-dit, l’article de The Economist répond plutôt oui à son point d’interrogation - comme c’est étonnant, hein ?

      Voilà leur conclusion :

      The study has prompted an investigation by Israel’s securities authority. Given the secrecy around the attacks, news is unlikely to have leaked to a short-seller on Wall Street. Unless it was dumb luck, whoever placed the trades was probably inside Hamas, or close enough to know its military secrets. In the past two months, America has banned just one trading firm for its ties to Hamas—a crypto exchange in Gaza that was linked to illicit transactions worth a mere $2,000. Somebody has managed to pull off a far bigger coup. Mr Mitts reckons that the trades he and his co-author have detected are “just the tip of the iceberg”.

      (et j’ajouterais : wink-wink nudge-nudge)

      Note que le titre dans la newsletter (que je cite) est différent du titre de l’article (dont je donne le lien) ; ça change la prémisse du ? mais bon, leur conclusion est claire[ment dans l’arc républicain].