At a moment of military might, Israel looks deeply vulnerable
▻https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/03/21/at-a-moment-of-military-might-israel-looks-deeply-vulnerable
Beaucoup de bruit autour de la dernière édition de The Economist. Même les « meilleurs » amis d’Israël commencent à s’inquiéter (pour eux ?)
There is still a narrow path out of the hellscape of Gaza. A temporary ceasefire and hostage release could cause a change of Israel’s government; the rump of Hamas fighters in south Gaza could be contained or fade away; and from the rubble, talks on a two-state solution could begin, underwritten by America and its Gulf allies. It is just as likely, however, that ceasefire talks will fail. That could leave Israel locked in the bleakest trajectory of its 75-year existence, featuring endless occupation, hard-right politics and isolation. Today many Israelis are in denial about this, but a political reckoning will come eventually. It will determine not only the fate of Palestinians, but also whether Israel thrives in the next 75 years.
If you are a friend of Israel this is a deeply uncomfortable moment. In October it launched a justified war of self-defence against Hamas, whose terrorists had committed atrocities that threaten the idea of Israel as a land where Jews are safe. Today Israel has destroyed perhaps half of Hamas’s forces. But in important ways its mission has failed.
First, in Gaza, where its reluctance to help provide or distribute aid has led to an avoidable humanitarian catastrophe, and where the civilian toll from the war is over 20,000 and growing. The hard-right government of Binyamin Netanyahu has rejected plans for post-war Gaza to be run by either the Palestinian Authority (pa) or an international force. The likeliest outcome is a military reoccupation. If you add the West Bank, Israel could permanently hold sway over 4m-5m Palestinians.
Israel has also failed at home. The problems go deeper than Mr Netanyahu’s dire leadership. A growing settler movement and ultra-Orthodox population have tilted politics to the right and polarised society. Before October 7th this was visible in a struggle over judicial independence. The war has raised the stakes, and although the hard-right parties of the coalition are excluded from the war cabinet they have compromised Israel’s national interest by using incendiary rhetoric, stoking settler violence and trying to sabotage aid and post-war planning. Israel’s security establishment is capable and pragmatic, but no longer fully in charge.
Israel’s final failure is clumsy diplomacy. Fury at the war was inevitable, especially in the global south, but Israel has done a poor job of countering it. “Lawfare”, including spurious genocide allegations, is damaging its reputation. Young Americans sympathise with it less than their parents do. President Joe Biden has tried to restrain Mr Netanyahu’s government by publicly embracing it, but failed. On March 14th Chuck Schumer, Israel’s greatest ally in the Senate, decried Hamas’s atrocities but said Israel’s leader was “lost”.
It is a bleak picture that is not always acknowledged in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv. Mr Netanyahu talks of invading Rafah, Hamas’s last redoubt, while the hard right fantasises about resettling Gaza. Many mainstream Israelis are deluding themselves, too. They believe the unique threats to Israel justify its ruthlessness and that the war has helped restore deterrence. Gaza shows that if you murder Israelis, destruction beckons. Many see no partner for peace—the P.A. is rotten and polls say 93% of Palestinians deny Hamas’s atrocities even took place. Occupation is the least-bad option, they conclude. Israelis would prefer to be popular abroad, but condemnation and antisemitism are a small price to pay for security. As for America, it has been angry before. The relationship is not about to rupture. If Donald Trump returns he may once again give Israel a free pass.
This seductive story is a manifesto for disaster. (...)