person:walid jumblatt

Syria Comment » Archives Harakat al-Hawiya al-Arabiya al-Druziya: Defending Druze Identity in Suwayda’ - Syria Comment
▻http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/harakat-al-hawiya-al-arabiya-al-druziya-defending-druze-identity-in-su

By Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

Although the Druze originate from a sect within Shi’i Islam, the religious movement evolved over time such that the Druze identity is deemed separate from that of the Shi’a. The same has been true of the Alawites, though as is well known, a number of efforts have been made in the recent past to bring the Alawites into the fold of mainstream Shi’i Islam, such as Musa Sadr’s fatwa in 1974 that recognized the Alawites as Shi’a- a trend of identification strengthened by the post-1979 alliance between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Assad dynasty. More recently, extensive Iranian and pro-Iranian Shi’a militia involvement on the ground in the Syrian civil war has given rise to claims of further Shi’ification trends targeting the Alawite community in particular, such as the opening of husseiniyas (Shi’i centres) in the Damascus and Latakia areas.

Less well known is that allegations of Shi’ification efforts also exist with respect to the Druze community in Syria. It seems that primarily in response to these developments has come the emergence of the Harakat al-Hawiya al-Arabiya al-Druziya (“The Arab Druze Identity Movement”), also known as the Harakat al-Difa’ ‘an al-Hawiya al-Druziya (“The Movement to Defend Druze Identity”), which first appears to have come on the scene in late 2015 (c. October 2015). Ethnically speaking, the ‘Arab’ aspect has long been a strong component of Druze identity.

Unsurprisingly, given the context in which this movement has emerged, it is highly critical of the regime and those associated with it. However, it is also consistent in its opposition to attempts to alter Druze identity (real and perceived), and so has also drawn attention (approvingly quoting independent Druze opposition activist-in-exile Maher Sharf al-Din) to the treatment of the Druze in Jabal al-Summaq in Idlib at the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra, which has not only implemented forced conversions to Sunni Islam but has also confiscated property of those from the area who fled to/live in regime-held areas and are thought to work with the regime, while altering the demographics with an influx of Turkmen people. This contrasts with the reluctance of anti-regime Druze in Lebanon associated with Walid Jumblatt to admit these realities, playing up instead the false idea that some kind of agreement to protect the Druze was reached with Jabhat al-Nusra (a falsehood recently repeated by Fabrice Balanche).

Syria Comment
AUTHOR

Joshua Landis
Director: Center
for Middle East Studies
and Associate Professor,
University of Oklahoma
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Le Courant du Futur refait mai 2008, un coup de force politique pas du tout improvisé, Siniora à la manœuvre, avec risque d’escalade grave – mais une chose est certaine, le 14 Mars va à nouveau se poser en victime (politique de l’« humiliation » feinte).

Aoun threatens action against term extension : FPM sources
▻http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2015/Aug-06/309933-aoun-threatens-action-against-term-extension-fpm-sources.ashx

Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun has reportedly criticized Defense Minister Samir Moqbel’s abrupt decision to keep the country’s top Army generals in their posts, while his movement threatened to take escalatory steps against the decision.

FPM sources said in comments published Thursday by Al-Akhbar newspaper that the bloc had no prior knowledge that Moqbel intended to extend the generals’ terms “because [chances] of reaching a deal and amending the Defense Law were still being debated.”

The sources warned that the FPM would carry out a “major escalation” against the extension, adding that Aoun will not back down although they did not elaborate on what type of escalatory steps they would take.

Seven soldiers and 17 protesters were wounded near the Grand Serail in Downtown Beirut last month in a scuffle between the Lebanese Army and FPM supporters protesting the government ignoring the FPM’s demand to prioritize the issue of security and military appointments.

Aoun has been pressing the government to appoint new military and security chiefs. He was also lobbying for his son-in-law Brig. Gen. Shamel Roukoz to be appointed Army commander.

Al-Akhbar quoted high-ranking Future Movement sources as saying that the current regional and international political situation does not allow Aoun to have any share in the Army nor in the presidency, and instead seek to diminish his political weight.

The sources added that the Future Movement has proceeded with the decision after a flurry of contacts Wednesday with MP Walid Jumblatt, former President Michel Sleiman, MP Sami Gemayel, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

The decision also came after a Future Movement meeting was held following Wednesday’s Cabinet session and before the Hezbollah-Future talks at Berri’s Ain al-Tineh residence, according to the report. The meeting was attended by Future bloc head Fouad Siniora, Deputy Prime Minister Farid Makari and former MP Ghattas Khoury.

As-Safir Newspaper - Ammar Nehmeh: Lebanon’s Islamic Group faces harsh criticism :: English
▻http://assafir.com/Article/50/373329

Ayyoubi did not deny this, recalling that the Islamic Group publicly announced its opposition to Egypt’s new regime and everyone who supported it in Lebanon, such as the Future Movement and MP Walid Jumblatt. He stressed that the relationship today with the Egyptian Embassy is almost cut off. In this respect, Ayyoubi asked the Future Movement why it criticized Hezbollah for staging a coup against legitimate elections in Lebanon, while it refrained from criticizing the party that did the same thing against legitimacy in Egypt.

Wikileaks And The 2008 Presidential Elections: Behind The Scenes | Moulahazat
▻http://moulahazat.com/2014/07/01/wikileaks-and-the-2008-presidential-elections-behind-the-scenes

There’s not a lot to comment on concerning the presidential elections, so I thought It would be nice if I made a compilation of interesting cables connected to the 2008 presidential elections that I found on #Wikileaks. What makes these texts so awesome is that they give hints on everything that happened afterwards: The May 7 events, Walid Jumblatt’s 2009 shift, Safadi and Mikati’s 2011 shift, the Sleiman-Aoun tensions, and even Michel Sleiman’s 2013 rivalry with the March 8 alliance. Elias El Murr sees his next president (Sleiman) as a coward, and Geagea wants to arm the Lebanese Forces.

Peut être @nidal a t il en fait déjà publié tout cela?

#Lebanon's #presidential_election expected to be postponed
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/lebanons-presidential-election-postponed

Lebanon’s second round presidential vote is expected to be postponed after March 8-aligned legislatures vowed to boycott Wednesday’s Parliamentary session in which it was scheduled to elect a new head of state. #parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is currently meeting with Walid Jumblatt, leader of the so-called Progressive Socialist Party, which routinely switches loyalties between the March 8 and March 14 coalitions — Lebanon’s two main political factions. read more

#Top_News

#Sweida in the line of fire: History repeating itself
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/sweida-line-fire-history-repeating-itself

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Druze sheikhs meet with Walid Jumblatt, political leader of the #Druze community in #Lebanon. (Photo: Bilal Jawish) Druze sheikhs meet with Walid Jumblatt, political leader of the Druze community in Lebanon. (Photo: Bilal Jawish)

As battles intensify in the south of #syria, the governorate of Sweida is stepping up its efforts to defend its choice of siding with the Syrian state. It will be a costly battle no doubt, but the region historically known as Jabal al-Arab – Mountain of the Arabs – will not accept today what it has stood up against repeatedly in the past century, including in the 1920s and 1950s, which is partition and separation from the Syrian state.

Firas Choufi (...)

#Mideast_&_North_Africa #Al-Nusra_Front #Articles #Chemical_Batallion #Daraa #Israel

Jumblatt Falls Into Costly #Chouf Property Trap
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/jumblatt-falls-costly-chouf-property-trap

http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/4cols/leading_images/tumblr_m9zoy7awYg1r7k3bio1_500.jpg

Druse leader #Walid_Jumblatt, gestures as he speaks during a press conference at his house, in Beirut, #Lebanon, on Friday July 1, 2011. (Photo: AP - Hussein Malla). Druse leader Walid Jumblatt, gestures as he speaks during a press conference at his house, in Beirut, #Lebanon, on Friday July 1, 2011. (Photo: AP - Hussein Malla).

The legal action filed by Walid Jumblatt against real estate dealer #Hussein_Bdeir carries many implications. Jumblatt claims Bdeir defrauded him in collaboration with Jumblatt’s close associate, #Baheej_Abu_Hamza. They sold him more than 266,000 square meters of “fake” property for an estimated $8 million. This is Jumblatt’s side of the story.

Mohamed Nazzal (...)

#Articles

Jumblatt: Regional War Being Waged on Our Soil
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/jumblatt-regional-war-being-waged-our-soil

http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/4cols/leading_images/45529674996550895.jpg

He urges the contending forces in #Tripoli to sit together and find a way to come to an agreement. (Photo: Marwan Bu Haidar). He urges the contending forces in Tripoli to sit together and find a way to come to an agreement. (Photo: Marwan Bu Haidar).

It’s the game of nations being fought out in #syria and #Lebanon, and its bigger than us, according to Lebanese Druze leader #Walid_Jumblatt.

Nicolas Nassif

read more

#Articles #Lebanon

Hotbeds of Transformation: Manna Meets Nasrallah and Jumblatt’s Secret Supper
►http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/hotbeds-transformation-manna-meets-nasrallah-and-jumblatts-secret

http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/4cols/leading_images/622382-01-08.jpg

A rebel fighter holds a position in a damaged building during clashes with Syrian government forces in the northeastern city of Deir Ezzor, on November 11, 2013. (Photo: AFP - Ahmad Aboud) A rebel fighter holds a position in a damaged building during clashes with Syrian government forces in the northeastern city of Deir Ezzor, on November 11, 2013. (Photo: AFP - Ahmad Aboud)

A few days ago, a secret supper took place. Head (...)

#Opinion #Articles #Bashar_al-Assad #Qatar #syria #Walid_Jumblatt

Jumblatt Sacks Abu Hamza: The Last Days of an Accountant
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/jumblatt-sacks-abu-hamza-last-days-accountant

http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/4cols/leading_images/17992037868834032.jpg

Jumblatt issued a statement announcing that he was implementing new arrangements to reorganize responsibilities relating to the management of his private properties and enterprises. (Photo: Haitham Moussawi) Jumblatt issued a statement announcing that he was implementing new arrangements to reorganize responsibilities relating to the management of his private properties and enterprises. (Photo: Haitham Moussawi)

Lebanese MP (...)

#Lebanon #Articles #PSP #Walid_Jumblatt

Geagea Fights for Prestige in the Era of Prince Bandar
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/geagea-fights-prestige-era-prince-bandar

Sources close to decision-making circles in Saudi say that Geagea has fallen down the list of priorities for the Saudis in Lebanon. Nevertheless, the Saudi view of Geagea remains unchanged, with the Lebanese Forces leader seen as someone who is different from the rest of Riyadh’s allies for having an “ideological” enmity with Hezbollah, rather than a political one, as is the case with MP Walid Jumblatt, for instance.

As Lebanon enters “Bandar’s era,” Geagea now serves no significant purpose for Saudi Arabian policy in Lebanon.

To be sure, the Saudi intelligence chief has his own ideological and security strike force in Lebanon against Hezbollah, namely, the Salafis. Meanwhile, politicking over forming the new cabinet has been entrusted to MP Jumblatt, in his capacity as kingmaker under the current parliamentary and governmental balance of power.

Another factor not in favor of Geagea is a recent assessment by the CIA – to which Bandar is close – over his role. Geagea had obtained substantial support from Riyadh to help secure the support of Christians in the Middle East for the Syrian opposition. However, he was unable to produce any significant results in this regard.

Riyadh felt threatened by the visits of Change and Reform head MP Michel Aoun to Syria before the conflict there began. Similarly, Saudi saw the pastoral visit by Maronite Patriarch Bichara al-Rai to Damascus during the crisis as a declaration by Middle Eastern Christians of their support for the Syrian regime. Saudi circles have thus come to ask, “What has Geagea been doing about this?”

Lebanon’s Politicians: We Want Our Security Guards
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/lebanon%E2%80%99s-politicians-we-want-our-security-guards

And – let’s be honest – it’s impossible to expect a police force of 16 to provide security for a small city like Jounieh, while someone like Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea enjoys a 72-member protection force (with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt not far behind).

Perhaps Geagea and Jumblatt are in danger, so one has to ask why would someone like Future Party leader Saad Hariri needs a small army of 150 to protect him when he has not visited the country for years.

The Week Of Confusion (Or How All The Stances Suddenly Changed) | Moulahazat | A Lebanese Political Blog
▻http://moulahazat.com/2013/05/27/the-week-of-confusion-or-how-all-the-stances-suddenly-changed

The Irony

Walid Jumblatt, who always called on holding elections on time, now wants an extension of the parliament’s mandate. Michel Aoun, who once said that he will not run with his party in the elections should they be under the 1960 law, is now officially a candidate. That can only explained by the fact that the political maneuvering Michel Aoun has done with the Orthodox Gathering Law for the past few months clearly made him more popular among Christians than the Christian M14 parties three weeks before elections (Link). If 2000 to 3000 votes change side in each Christian district, the FPM will have the ability to win several more districts than 2009 like Batroun, Ashrafieh and Koura. 10 extra MPs on M8′s side mean that the majority changes side in the parliament. And that makes one understand why the Future Movement are currently Ok. with an extension of the Mandate. Hezbollah doesn’t have time for elections with what is happening at Qussair, and an extension to the Mandate also means that Berri gets to stay speaker for 6 extra months and even 2 extra years (Who knows). And why the big No from Jumblatt to elections? 68 MPs on the side of M8 without the Jumblatt votes make Lebanon’s kingmaker as powerful as the Kataeb. The man who was responsible of the last two governmental changes in 2011 and 2013, will not stay as influential as he is now if the Status Quo changes and an alliance gets able to hold more than 64 MPs without him.

#Liban
#élections

Hezbollah’s Black Shirts to Reappear on Beirut Streets?
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/hezbollah%E2%80%99s-black-shirts-reappear-beirut-streets

A few days ago, MP Jumblatt proclaimed that today’s circumstances were different from those of the past. The MP meant that Hezbollah could no longer stage a repeat of the “black shirts” incident – an unarmed show of force by Hezbollah that was credited with blocking the return of Hariri to power.

This happened on the morning of 18 January 2011. Back then, Jumblatt was not late to understand that he could not nominate Hariri. As usual, the Druze MP deferred to the will of the strongest faction.

Ibrahim al-Amin revient aujourd’hui sur les très lourdes ingérences étrangères dans la démission de Mikati et la déstabilisation du Liban. Où l’on apprend que François Hollande croit pouvoir se mêler personnellement des nominations à la tête des services de sécurité libanais :
▻http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/mikatis-resignation-end-dissociation

Regarding the domestic issues that prompted the move, which are inextricable from developments in Syria, a number of things can be noted.

One is the growing hold of the US and certain European and Arab governments over a great many Lebanese politicians, including Suleiman, Mikati, and Walid Jumblatt.

These countries wanted to block the adoption of a new election law that would deny the March 14 coalition a parliamentary majority and jeopardize the “balance-tipping” power of Jumblatt. So they went into action to ensure that no agreement would be reached on legislation that does not suit their strategy. Even the confused position of the Phalangists and Lebanese Forces was insufficient to enable the Orthodox Gathering Law to be approved.

[…]

The other directive that was issued relates to the security situation in the country.

For the West and its Arab clients, it is not enough to neutralize the Lebanese army, prevent it from acting decisively to bring the security breakdown under control, and threaten to split or scrap it. They also want direct control over the Internal Security Forces (ISF), so decided there is a pressing need for General Ashraf Rifi to be kept in his post as ISF head following the assassination of Wissam al-Hassan.

No opportunity was missed to press this point, whether in repeated remarks by the US ambassador to Lebanon, or in the Saudi ambassador’s claim to have been given an undertaking by the president of the republic that Rifi’s term would be extended. The French prime minister even raised the subject with Mikati, telling him within earshot of accompanying ministers that “President Hollande recommends” that Rifi be retained.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah drawn into Syria conflict
►http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20085989

This the first time that Hezbollah has acknowledged that some of its members may have been in Syria, albeit without any formal support. In truth, there is no real border in these areas, and that is part of the conundrum.

There are Lebanese communities on what is now regarded as the Syrian side, and thousands of Syrians live in “border” villages that are today formally within Lebanon but were not always so.

Soudayf Hamada is a senior tribal figure among the Shia villages at the northern end of the Bekaa and, crucially, also speaks for Lebanese citizens on the other side of the valley - land that is nowadays inside Syria.

He defends the role of individuals to protect their communities and their lands.

“Many of our villages in Syria have been attacked by the rebels,” Mr Soudayf says as he points to the villages in question, no more than a 1km (0.6 miles) away.

“People have been killed. Hezbollah can’t stop its supporters defending their own land.”

Jumblatt says alliance with Hezbollah at risk
►http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Aug-12/184385-jumblatt-says-alliance-with-hezbollah-at-risk.ashx

MP Walid Jumblatt said over the weekend his alliance with Hezbollah could not continue under the slogan of the “Army, people and resistance,” in a possible sign of deteriorating relations between the two Cabinet allies.

“This vague partnership under the slogan of ‘Army, people and resistance,’ cannot continue at the expense of the state, [Lebanese] Army, security and economy,” Jumblatt said Saturday during a televised iftar in the Chouf, Mount Lebanon.

#TSL, rien d’autre qu’un instrument politique libanais ? Et même Michael Young, et même sur Now Lebanon… Scared by the tribunal, who me ?
►http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=418697&MID=0&PID=0

At this stage, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is useful mainly as a political weapon inside Lebanon. That is why the March 14 coalition continues to swear by it, and perhaps why Walid Jumblatt, who denounced the tribunal as “politicized” in the days when he was cozying up to the Syrian regime, recently praised the American senator, John McCain, for having been steadfast in defending the institution. As leverage against Hezbollah, the tribunal still serves a purpose, but no one should expect results soon.
 
However, you have to wonder whether March 14, beyond political expediency, is still convinced that the investigation and Special Tribunal were successful experiments. The members of that loose fraternity should feel hoodwinked by the United Nations. Outrage is in order, even though the parties in the opposition will never express it, given their political stake in upholding the tribunal’s credibility.
 
And if political calculation is behind their silence, that only gives us another reason to regret what the United Nations has spawned. Here the international body set up a judicial body to stay above politics and dispense justice. Now its purpose, at least in Lebanon, is to serve as a political tool, while justice is kept waiting, indefinitely.

Région du monde mal fréquentée ces derniers jours...

Days after visits by Lebanese politicians Walid Jumblatt and Amin Gemayel to Erbil, Samir Geagea follows in their footsteps in what has become a favored destination of figures associated with the country’s March 14 camp.

The visit strengthened the perceived image that Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani and his party have joined the club of conservative, pro-US and pro-Western Middle Eastern leaders

►http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/3507/#comments

20 août 2006 - #cablegate - 06BEIRUT2703 - Brainstorming With Marwan And Nayla: Have Kofi Bring Nicolas Michel With Him
►http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=06BEIRUT2703

Mouawad and Hamadeh are two of the more zealous and vocal members of the March 14 majority, and neither are prone to flinching. They are also used to playing in traditional Lebanese politics, which explains why concerns with cash loom so large in their minds. Frankly, it seems to us to be a reasonable investment (assuming someone comes forward), if a couple of million dollars helps Walid Jumblatt maintain the Druse on the March 14 side rather than see them start to shift toward the pro-Syrian Druse leader Talal Arslan.

15 mai 2008 - 08BEIRUT698 - LEBANON : JUMBLATT WANTS TO BE READY FOR THE « NEXT ROUND » (#cablegate)
►http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/05/08BEIRUT698.html#

March 14/Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt told us on May 15 that he wants to prepare his Druze PSP fighters by secretly supplying them with weapons, in order to be ready for the “next round” of fighting with Hizballah. He originally planned to delay going to Doha by three or four days for the Arab League-hosted round of talks (scheduled for May 16) with Lebanon’s political leaders so that he could visit his Druze constituents in the north (19 of whom were killed in the clashes with Hizballah) and make a quick stop to see his friends in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. However, Jumblatt later called Charge to report that he had received the Saudis’ blessing to go to Doha and planned to depart the following day with Saad Hariri.

Archives #cablegate, un tour d’horizon des câbles décrivant des milices du 14 Mars.

These leaders are currently advocating building a civil unarmed society in Lebanon (which is their main argument against Hezbollah), but in reality they do not mind getting armed to fight Hezbollah. I think they surely serve foreign interests in a way or another too, or at least they accept to be used. Let’s be practical here, we know how international politics is conducted, and politicians have to exploit international balances and political opportunities, and this is fine. But to ‘exploit’ opportunities to go back to civil war? I am not sure about that.

So the biggest scandal of all, which was revealed by the recently released American diplomacy cables by Wikileaks (and Al-Akhbar newspaper in Lebanon), was their readiness, intention and initiative to seek arms.

2011-09-02 Wikileaks and the anti-Hezbollah militias | WL Central
►http://wlcentral.org/node/2215

12 May 2008 – Cable: 08BEIRUT669 – Para 11: Samir Geagea followed up on his previous request for ammunition. What was more dangerous about this request, was that he disclosed he was coordinating his efforts with the Lebanese Head of Internal security Forces Asharaf Rifi. He disclosed too that he was looking to buy arms at ‘list price’ from the market for him and Walid Jumblatt.

15 May 2008 – Cable: 08BEIRUT698 – Para 9 & 10: Walid Jumblatt said that he wanted to prepare for round 2 with Hezbollah. And he planned to liaise with Saad Hariri, to check if the Saudis can arm his supporters. He even asked the American Charge and Defense Attache for land mines!

Joumblatt en 2006 : « Envahissez mon pays »

J’ai posté ce matin un premier billet concernant ce câble :

17 juillet 2006 :
TFLE01 : LARSEN TO PROPOSE HANDOVER OF ISRAELI SOLDIERS TO GOL ; JUMBLATT AND HAMADEH CONCUR
►http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/6742

Mon billet, concernant la première partie du rapport, au sujet de l’envoyé de l’ONU Terje Roed-Larsen :
►http://seenthis.net/messages/14117

C’est la seconde partie de ce câble qui en fait un document carrément explosif : il met en cause, très gravement, Walid Joumblatt, alors membre éminent du 14 Mars.

Il faut souligner la qualité et l’indépendance du quotidien Al-Akhbar : le quotidien est, politiquement, proche du 8 Mars, opposée au 14 Mars, sur une ligne anti-impérialiste assumée. Or, il publie ici un document qui met en cause très gravement le nouvel allié du 8 Mars : c’est le (n-ième) retournement de veste de Walid Joumblatt, il y a quelques semaines, qui a permis à l’ex-opposition (les alliés du Hezbollah) de faire tomber le gouvernement de Saad Hariri.

En termes strictement politiciens, on peut considérer qu’Al-Akhbar tire contre son camp (les voix du groupe politique de Joumblatt sont indispensable au Hezbollah pour obtenir la majorité parlementaire). En termes d’indépendance journalistique et d’intégrité politique, c’est assez admirable (il n’y a pas grand chose de commun, idéologiquement, entre les idées d’Al-Akhbar et celles de Joumblatt).

Commençons par l’aspect ridicule (mais tout de même abjecte) du rapport. Israël bombarde massivement le Liban depuis une semaine, les morts civils sont innombrables, des centaines de milliers de réfugiés à travers le pays, les infrastructures civiles du pays pilonnées, une catastrophe écologique importante... ; pourtant Walid Joumblatt et ses sbires, Marwan Hamadeh et Ghazi Aridi, ne s’oublient pas (il doit bien y avoir quelque chose d’outrancier dans leur comportement pour que Jeffrey Feltman mette ce genre de considérations dans son rapport diplomatique) :

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, Minister of Telecommunications Marwan Hamadeh, and Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi entered the room in good humor and indulged in generous orders to room service with the others present.

[...]

Over a glass of red wine, a large bottle of vodka (the quality of which sparked a long exchange between Jumblatt and the startled room service waiter), and three bottles of Corona beer, Jumblatt gave a briefing on the thinking of the March 14 coalition which had met that evening.

Mais c’est, évidemment, le contenu de la conversation qui est historique. Jeffrey Feltman, qui signe ce compte-rendu, utilise un intertitre particulièrement explicite : « Envahissez mon pays ».

INVADE MY COUNTRY
–----------------

[...] Jumblatt noted the heavy destruction of Lebanese infrastructure but bemoaned the irony that Hizballah’s military infrastructure had not been seriously touched. Jumblatt explained that although March 14 must call for a cease-fire in public, it is hoping that Israel continues its military operations until it destroys Hizballah’s military capabilities. “If there is a cease-fire now, Hizballah wins,” said Jumblatt. “We don’t want it to stop,” Hamadeh chimed in. Hizballah has been stockpiling arms for years and its arsenal is well-hidden and protected somewhere in the Biqa Valley. Jumblatt marveled at the cleverness of the Iranians in supplying Hizballah with the anti-ship missile that hit an Israeli gunboat.

8. (C/NF) Responding to Jumblatt’s complain that Israel is hitting targets that hurt the GOL while leaving Hizballah strategically strong, the Ambassador asked Jumblatt what Israel should do to cause serious damage to Hizballah. Jumblatt replied that Israel is still in the mindset of fighting classic battles with Arab armies. “You can’t win this kind of war with zero dead,” he said. Jumblatt finally said what he meant; Israel will have to invade southern Lebanon. Israel must be careful to avoid massacres, but it should clear Hizballah out of southern Lebanon. Then the LAF can replace the IDF once a cease-fire is reached. A defeat of Hizballah by Israel would be a defeat of Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon, Hamadeh added. For emphasis, Jumblatt said that the only two outcomes are total defeat or total success for Hizballah.

9. (C/NF) Hamadeh said that an Israeli invasion would give Siniora more ammunition to deal with Hizballah’s arms. Jumblatt thought the crisis could end in an armistice agreement like after the 1973 war. A buffer zone in the south could then be created. However, Jumblatt added, Israel should not bomb Syria because it would simply bring Syria back into the Arab fold without damaging the regime in Damascus. Weaken Syria by weakening Hizballah, he counseled; don’t make Syria a hero of the Arab world. Jumblatt made it clear he approved with Israel’s scrupulous avoidance of direct military action against Syria.

INVASION ON THE TABLE
–--------------------

10. (C/NF) After finishing their room service, Jumblatt and company departed. [...]

COMMENT
–------

11. (C/NF) Jumblatt’s comments echoed those of other March 14 contacts. Like the Israelis, they see the status quo ante as not an appealing destination. Thus, they also privately share their belief that a cease-fire now would leave Hizballah’s capabilities largely intact, with Nasrallah stronger and March 14 even weaker. But they fret that Israel’s stated aims of weakening Hizballah, while theoretically attractive, is not in fact happening. Marwan Hamadeh commented bitterly that al-Manar television is still broadcasting, while infrastructure under “March 14” control, like the fixed telephone network, has been seriously damaged.

Voilà, ça se résume finalement à cela : « Israel will have to invade southern Lebanon » (« Israël va devoir envahir le sud du Liban »).

Walid Joumblatt et Marwan Hamadé, deux éminents fondateurs de la coalition du 14 Mars (portant une responsabilité certaine dans la rédaction de la résolution 1559), fervents militants de l’« intifada de l’indépendance », réclament ouvertement un Liban « indépendant » dont une région entière serait occupée par Israël. Ils demandent une résolution internationale exigeant que les puissances régionales n’interviennent plus dans les affaires intérieures du Liban, tout en demandant ouvertement à Israël de faire disparaître le Hezbollah.

#cablegate #liban