2016 January | Informed Comment

Hard Truth: Aleppo Rebels weren’t defeated by Main Force but b/c they alienated Syrians - Juan Cole
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/12/defeated-alienated-syrians.html

Syria is a very diverse society. Here are some guesstimates for its ethnic and sectarian make-up.
Alawite Shiites: 14%
Christians: 7%
Druze: 3%
Ismailis: 1%
Twelver Shiites: 0.5%
Kurds: 10%
Secular Sunni Arabs: 30%
Religious Sunni Arabs: 34.5%

[…]

So as the Syrian opposition ratcheted farther and farther to the Sunni religious right, and as the most effective fighters came to be drawn from that sector, they lost the good will and support of most Syrians.

The secular-minded Sunni Arab majority didn’t want to be ruled by people imitating the Saudi Wahhabis. The Christians didn’t want that. The Druze didn’t want it. The Kurds didn’t want it. The Alawites certainly didn’t want it.

So you get 70% of the people in the country who, having been given the unpalatable choice between the Baath regime of al-Assad and being ruled by Salafi Jihadis, reluctantly chose al-Assad.

That is why the Aleppo pocket fell. There had been 250,000 Sunni Arabs of a more religious mindset and from a working class background living there under rebel control since 2012. But next door in West Aleppo, which our television stations won’t talk about, were 800,000 to a million people who much preferred to be under the rule of the regime. This numerous and relatively well off population took occasional mortar fire from the slums of East Aleppo. They weren’t in the least interested in saving the rebels from the Russians or the Iraqi Shiite militias or from the regime itself.

Facebook collabore actuellement avec le gouvernement israélien pour déterminer ce qui devrait être censuré | Glenn Greenwald
▻http://www.etatdexception.net/facebook-collabore-actuellement-avec-le-gouvernement-israelien-pour-

Le bureau de Jérusalem d’Associated Press (AP) rapporte aujourd’hui que « le gouvernement israélien et Facebook ont convenu de travailler ensemble pour déterminer la façon de s’attaquer à l’incitation à la haine sur les réseaux sociaux ». Ces réunions ont lieu tandis « que le gouvernement avance des mesures législatives destinées à forcer les réseaux sociaux à maîtriser le contenu qui, selon Israël, incite à la violence ». En d’autres termes, Israël est sur le point de forcer par voie législative Facebook à censurer le contenu considéré par les responsables israéliens comme mauvais, et Facebook semble désireux d’apaiser ces menaces en travaillant directement avec le gouvernement israélien pour déterminer quel contenu doit être censuré. Source : The Intercept via Etat (...)

Clash Looming? Russia-backed Syrian Army heading for ISIL’s al-Raqqa in race with US-backed Kurds
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/06/looming-russia-heading.html

If the US-backed YPG or Self Defense Forces, a unit of Syria’s leftist Kurds, reaches al-Raqqa at the same time as the Syrian Arab Army, there could be a clash between the two over al-Raqqa. The Syrian Army deeply dislikes the YPG and has vowed to put them down.

#Syrie

Disparition - Mohamed Ali, «The Greatest», est mort
▻http://www.lequipe.fr/Boxe/Actualites/Mohamed-ali-the-greatest-est-mort/689177

Mohamed Ali s’est éteint à l’âge de 74 ans, vendredi à Phoenix, en Arizona. Champion du monde à trois reprises, il aura régné sur l’âge d’or des poids lourds et forgé sa légende par ses luttes en dehors du ring.

Modern Mongols: Sunni Arabs outraged at Iran role in Iraqi Gov’t Fallujah Campaign
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/05/outraged-fallujah-campaign.html

BBC Monitoring surveyed the Arabic press on 27 May for the issue of the Iranian role in the Iraq government campaign to take Fallujah from Daesh (ISIS, ISIL). Although Saudi and other newspapers say they want to see Daesh defeated, they are deeply critical of the Shiite militias or Popular Mobilization Forces, alleging that they use indiscriminate fire and create high numbers of civilian casualties when operating in Sunni Arab areas.

Fallujah is a storied Iraqi Sunni stronghold of several hundreds of thousands of residents, the “city of minarets.” It fell to Daesh in January of 2014, and I think it is fair to say that there is much more angst in the Sunni Arab world about its liberation at the hands of Iran-backed Shiites than there has been about Daesh’s brutal occupation of the city.

Baghdad on Lockdown not from fear of ISIL but of poor Protesters
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/05/baghdad-lockdown-protesters.html

Les #pauvres contre les #voleurs

Comme le note angry arab, tandis que les médias rapportent à juste titre que les bombardements aériens des forces du régime tuent des civils, notamment à Alep sous contrôle rebelle, les médias occultent complètement les morts civils dans la zone d’Alep tenue par le régime, où les rebelles bombardent au mortier et avec les « canons de l’enfer », et qui ont fait une vingtaine de morts depuis quelques jours :
▻http://angryarab.blogspot.fr/2016/04/like-i-have-been-telling-you-syrian.html

Like i have been telling you, Syrian rebels have been bombing the shit out of Aleppo residents but not a word about that
Only when Syrian regime forces kills civilians it is news. Killing of civilians in the territories under the control of the regime does not warrant coverage.

Lien vers article NYT en exemple :
▻http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/29/world/middleeast/aleppo-syria-strikes.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

Obama annonce l’envoi de 250 membres des forces spéciales américaines en addition des 50 officiellement déjà présents, et ce en appui des SDF (YPG + brigades arabes) afin, selon ses déclarations, de prendre Raqqa :
▻http://www.cbsnews.com/news/behind-president-obama-decision-to-deploy-250-additional-u-s-troops-to-syri

The president’s decision expands the American military footprint in Syria,m from 50 commandos to 300 — something the president has been very reluctant to do. But this is an attempt to squeeze ISIS as much as he can before leaving office, reports CBS News correspondent Margaret Brennan.
The additional U.S. troops will intensify pressure on ISIS inside their Syrian stronghold. They will provide intelligence, support and logistics to Kurdish and Arab forces who are fighting to recapture Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State.

#course_vers_Raqqa

Ad for Honey Maid Graham Crackers Challenges Hatred of Muslim Women

▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/04/ad-for-honey-maid-graham-crackers-challenges-hatred-of-muslim-women.html

Honey Maid, the famous Graham cracker brand behind such delectable pleasures as “Morning Sticks” and “Teddy Grahams,” has thrown its cap in the ring of pluralism. In a new advertisement that is part of its “This is Wholesome” campaign, the company showcases a Muslim woman interacting with her new neighbors.
“I didn’t know anything about her culture, only what I saw in the news,” a woman says as she peers out of her window blinds. As their children frolic in the yard, the neighbors embrace. “I was kind of scared of how she’s going to accept me,” the first woman, who wears the hijab, said. “But then our girls brought us together.”
This powerful clip, featured below, quickly took the Internet by storm with more than 21,000 views on Facebook, and 16,000 views on YouTube.

Comme prévu après la prise de Palmyre, Qaryatayn vient d’être reprise par les forces du régime à Da’ich :
▻http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160403/1037410323/syria-al-qaryataynin.html
Qaryatayn c’est là : ▻https://www.google.fr/maps/@34.2285857,37.1677565,9z
La question maintenant est vers quel objectif le régime va-t-il allouer ses forces disponibles : briser le siège de Deïr az-Zor ou bien couper en 2 le territoire syrien de Da’ich en prenant Tabaqah sur la route de Raqqa ?
La question est en fait politique. Elle dépend de deux autres questions :
1° - D’abord la cessation des hostilités va-t-elle tenir malgré les offensives conjointes des « rebelles » et d’al-Nousra/Ahrar al-Cham au sud d’Alep et dans la province de Lattaquieh et permettre de continuer l’offensive anti-Da’ich, ou bien le régime va-t-il devoir délaisser sa poussée vers l’est et se reconcentrer sur la « Syrie utile » ?
2° - Qu’est-ce que le régime considère comme la menace la plus crédible : l’impossibilité de s’entendre avec les SDF/YPG si leurs avancées les mettaient en position de force alors qu’ils s’approchent de Raqqah (et viennent de pénétrer dans la mouhafaza de Deïr ez-Zor), menaçant alors le régime d’une fédéralisation forcée, ou bien un plan de Sunnistan dans le désert que concocteraient les Saoudiens (et d’autres) ?
Et quel est le degré d’entente russo-américain ?
Et quelles sont les priorités des Iraniens : pas de fédéralisation ou bien réouvrir des voies de communication entre le Liban et l’Iran via Deïr az-Zor et l’Irak ?

#course_vers_Raqqa

How Bush-Cheneyism made Mideast in its Image: Wars, WOT, With us or Against Us
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/03/how-bush-cheneyism-made-mideast-in-its-image-wars-wot-with-us-or-against-u

...these techniques of governance have a long genealogy in the annals of American criminality– oops, I mean politics...

#politique #crimes #Etats-Unis

UN: Over 400 Palestinians displaced by Israel in 6 weeks | Informed Comment
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/02/un-over-400-palestinians-displaced-by-israel-in-6-weeks.html

Over 400 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank have been displaced due to Israeli demolitions during the first six weeks of this year, a senior UN official said Wednesday.

Coordinator for Humanitarian and UN Development Activities for the occupied Palestinian territory Robert Piper in a statement called the number of demolitions “alarming.”

The number of Palestinians displaced in 2016 is already equivalent to over half of the total number displaced in all of 2015, the official said.

#palestine

Quel journaliste scandalisé par les événements d’Alep a-t-il daigné t’informer de ce que dit Juan Cole ?

▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/02/syria-rebels-face-collapse-as-thousands-flee-north-aleppo.html

They were apparently mainly fighting al-Qaeda, which had a stronghold in the city of Ratyan.

Le « Y » syrien : Damas-Alep, Homs-Lattaquié par Juan Cole.
Un résumé à ma sauce : pour assurer sa viabilité, l’Etat syrien ne doit pas perdre le contrôle de la dorsale : Damas-Homs-Hama-Alep et de la côte. Sans quoi, les jeux sont faits. L’intervention russe a permis, en partie, à l’armée syrienne de reprendre le contrôle de ce Y.
Top 5 Ways Putin has won big in Syria and why Europe is embracing him
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/01/top-5-ways-putin-has-won-big-in-syria-and-is-being-embraced-by-europe.html

So what has the Russian air force accomplished?
1. It allowed the reopening of the road from Hama to West Aleppo, ending the siege of that regime-held part of the city and pushing back the rebels from it.
2. It retook most of Latakia Province, safeguarding the port. Yesterday came the news that the major northern al-Qaeda-held town of Rabia had fallen to the government forces, meaning that Latakia is nearly 100% in government control. These advances into northern Latakia involved hitting Turkmen proxies of Turkey, which is why Turkey shot down a Russian plane last fall. Likely the next step will be to take back cities in Idlib like Jisr al-Shughour, which fell last spring to an al-Qaeda-led coalition, and which could be used as a launching pad for the taking of Latakia port.
3. It strengthened regime control of Hama and Homs, ensuring the supply routes south to Damascus.
4. It hit the Army of Islam as well as al-Qaeda and Daesh around Damascus, forcing the latter two to withdraw from part of the capital and killing Zahran Alloush, leader of the Army of Islam.
5. It hit al-Qaeda and FSA forces in Deraa Province and yesterday the key town of al-Sheikh Miskin fell to the Syrian Arab Army. This is a Deraa crossroads and its loss affects the rebels ability to maneuver in this province.

Iran Unleashed : Rouhani’s Triumphant European Tour | Informed Comment
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/01/iran-unleashed-rouhanis-triumphant-european-tour.html

C’est peu de dire que le point de vue de Juan Cole nous change des longs commentaires sur les statues voilées et les menus halal...

These passages underline the ways in which Iran is now seen as increasingly an important partner for Europe, not only economically, but also strategically. Shiite Iran is positioned as the most effective bulwark against Daesh (ISIS, ISIL). It is also seen as a power broker in Iraq and Lebanon, both countries important to Italy.

#iran #syrie

How a Medieval Muslim thinker invented Sociology
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/01/how-a-medieval-muslim-thinker-invented-sociology.html

#Ibn_Khaldoun

Arnold J. #Toynbee called the Muqaddimah “a philosophy of history which is undoubtedly the greatest work of its kind that has ever yet been created by any mind in any time or place.” What do you think are the sources of Ibn Khaldun’s genius?

Arnold J. Toynbee recognized the unique quality of Ibn Khaldun’s work, but he did not understand its philosophical basis and he mischaracterized it as a philosophy of history. The Muqaddimah is a work of Historical Sociology and it provides a model to explain one specific aspect of historical change: the relations between rural tribes and urban states, which was a constant feature of North African history.

His “genius” consisted of offering a philosophical program for transforming history from a series of meaningless and usually sycophantic narratives into social analysis. He was the first scholar in any civilization to do so. Of course, almost no one paid any attention at the time. Only in the twentieth century Annales School was his vision of a philosophical historical discipline partially realized.

#sociologie

An Islamic Reformation ? There have been Many | Informed Comment
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/01/an-islamic-reformation-there-have-been-many.html

Liberal/ modernist reforms are now available in public space, but not attractive to most religious Muslims because they do not fit in with their social and psychological needs and outlooks. Liberal/ modernist reforms are… not attractive to most religious Muslims because they do not fit in with their social and psychological needs and outlooks.

(...)

Liberal, reformist Islam enjoyed wide public favour in the earlier twentieth century, till the 1970s, with the prevalent nationalist and developmentalist projects and ideologies often articulated to leftist ideas. The collapse of the credibility in these projects and of leftist ideologies gave rise in many parts of the world to identity politics, in which ethnic and religious affiliations are central. Identity politics demands an emphasis on difference from the Western other. Adherence to religion among Muslims in their majority countries and in Western diasporas is commonly based on affiliations and sentiments that do not favour liberal reformism. In much of the Muslim world, the precarious conditions of security and livelihood for many drive people to seek protection in communal networks of kin, tribe and patronage, in which religious authority plays an important role. Patriarchy and communal authoritarianism are buttressed by religious rules and disciplines. Mosques, madrasas and charities, many financed by Saudi donations and personnel reinforce these communalist formations. While many Salafis are not violent militants, these ideas and institutions do mutate into Jihadism: the Taliban were initially the product of Saudi financed madrasas in Pakistan.

Muslims in the West comprise many social, ethnic and class groupings, with religion playing varying roles in their lives. The vocabulary of liberal reformism appeals to many educated middle class and professional Muslims, alongside outright secularism. Conservative and fundamentalist religion includes different constituencies. Patriarchal and communalist elements are keen to maintain social and moral controls, and are worried about the contaminations of Western personal liberties for their women and children, and seek remedies in assertion of religious disciplines. Identity politics, what may be called ‘Umma nationalism’, the idea of a universal Islamic community confronting Western/Christian and Jewish challenge or hostility, also feeds into more fundamentalist orientation. These sentiments are fed and feed into rising racism and anti-Muslim ideas and movements in the West. The attraction of Jihadism for some of the young Muslims are part of this trend.

Islam, then, has had many ‘reformations’, including liberal and rationalist reforms. Only, under the conditions outlined above, these ideas have little appeal to many Muslim constituencies at the present time. Those inclined to liberal ideas are more likely to be secular or nominal Muslims.

Les « réformes » en islam : particulièrement pédagogique.

Syrian Peace Groups: This is not a Civil War, it is a Set of Foreign Invasions | Informed Comment
▻http://www.juancole.com/2016/01/syrian-peace-groups-this-is-not-a-civil-war-it-is-a-set-of-foreign-invasio

Few Syrians we met were under the illusion that their elected (7O percent) leader President Assad, was perfect yet many admired him and felt he was much preferred to the alternative of the government falling into the hands of the Jihadists fighters, fundamental extremists with ideology that would force the minorities (and moderate Sunnis) to flee Syria (or many to get killed).

Mairead Maguire is a peace activist from Northern Ireland and Nobel Peace Laureate 1976

#syrie