industryterm:political solutions

Dismissed Fatah leader rules out reconciliation with Abbas
▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/fatah-dimissed-leader-dahlan-abbas-weak-elections.html

In April 2016, Dahlan established the Democratic Reformist Current within Fatah, which includes a large number of Fatah leaders who oppose Abbas’ policies. He also has a growing network of regional and international relations in some Arab and Western countries. The dismissed leader sees himself a potential successor of Abbas in the political scene.

The text of the interview follows:

Al-Monitor: What is the latest development on your disagreement with President Abbas? Were reconciliation attempts between you stalled? How do you respond to the allegations that you are providing your supporters in the West Bank with money and weapons to destabilize Abbas’ authority there?

Dahlan: There are no reconciliation efforts for the time being. Abu Mazen [Abbas] has rejected all bona fide efforts, and the issue of reconciling with him, for me, is in the past now. But me and my colleagues in the Fatah Democratic Reformist Current will keep working to preserve Fatah’s national positions regarding Jerusalem and the return of refugees. These issues are supported by Hamas and most factions of the PLO, and they may also be supported by the large majority of the Palestinian people. We are getting ready for the next stage that will witness comprehensive parliamentary and presidential elections, since Abu Mazen’s position today is weakened and he lost legitimacy. He is unable to pass political solutions affecting the rights of our Palestinian people as he lost the popular cover, legitimacy and support.

Read more: ▻http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/04/fatah-dimissed-leader-dahlan-abbas-weak-elections.html#ixzz4dNUfqvs6

The South Caucasus – a conflict zone

Russia uses frozen conflicts to keep the South Caucasus under strategic control
Accordingly, Moscow will not allow military or political solutions to territorial disputes
Kremlin will look to keep hot spots smoldering and continue creeping annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, control of the South Caucasus remains a strategic priority for Russia. Since the end of the 18th century, Moscow has been seeking unfettered access to the Mediterranean from ports on the Black Sea. The precondition for this is to hold a position of strength against Turkey.

The restoration of independence to the South Caucasus states in the early 1990s was accompanied by armed conflicts that have yet to be resolved. Following the brief Russo-Georgian war in August 2008, the separatist enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia pulled further away from Georgia and placed themselves under the Kremlin’s political and military protection, attempting to secure their status as independent states.

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/media/report_images/Kaukaz.jpg

▻https://www.gisreportsonline.com/the-south-caucasus-a-conflict-zone,defense,2025,report.html

#Caucase #conflit #cartographie #visualisation
cc @reka

Cities are no panacea – But they must be part of the solution

The unremitting refugee crisis has been persistent in the headlines for several years now and the UNHCR confirms the reason: the world is facing the worst refugee crisis since World War II, with 65.3 million people forcibly displaced. Given the lack of a political solutions in Syria, and ongoing violence in countries such as Burundi, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen to name a few, the continued increase of those seeking refugee status looks unlikely to change in the near future.

▻http://urban-refugees.org/debate/cities-panacea-part-solution/#more-300
#urban_refugees #réfugiés_urbains #asile #migrations #urban_matter #villes #réfugiés

Article très intéressant d’Elijah Magnier sur les divergences actuelles entre Damas, Téhéran et le Hezbollah d’un côté et la Russie de l’autre quant à la cessation des hostilités :
Russia equivocates in Syria, Iran is confused and al-Qaeda takes the initiative
▻https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/05/11/russia-equivocates-in-syria-iran-is-confused-and-al-qaeda-takes-
Morceaux choisis :

The Damascus and Moscow alliance faced with the cooperation of the Middle Eastern regional countries and the United States in Syria is failing at the moment. Al-Qaeda in al-Sham (Jabhat al-Nusra) although excluded from the Cease-fire, grabbed the initiative on the ground and counter attacked south of Aleppo with many allies: Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Aqsa, Jaish al-Sunnah and the Turkestan forces (all not excluded from the Cease-fire) fighting within the ranks of Jaish al-Fateh, the “army of conquest,” which includes more jihadist organizations and others more moderate.[...]
Now that over 97 cities and towns are engaged in the cessation of hostilities (COH), the Russian President Vladimir Putin needs a strong case to return to the Syrian arena in full force. Today, Moscow has placed itself alongside flexible American diplomacy, which in Syria changes according to developments and is unwilling to re-initiate a military campaign that could be considered aggressive to various countries in the Middle East. Such a flexible Russian attitude has angered Tehran and Damascus and their proxy allies, forcing them to alter plans of deployment.[...]
Decision makers in Syria say “Moscow gave the time for rebels to regroup and reorganise their offensives. There is no point in fighting and dying in areas we don’t need to hold on to. Before the Russian intervention, we were defending the main cities and no force could have managed to break in. Now we are on several fronts without serious coordination between all forces. It is time to change tactics and reduce military deployment”.[...]
“Countries in the region are prepared to wait seven more months for a new U.S. President who would interact with Assad more aggressively than President Barack Obama. These countries will continue supporting the rebels in the next 7 months, sending money and weapons so they are prepared for another confrontation. The allies of Damascus consider Russia has repeated what the late President of Egypt Anwar al-Sadat did in 1973 when he stopped the war suddenly and gave Israel the opportunity to regroup its forces, returning to regain the initiative and overcome the Egyptian third army, all of which resulted in the Camp David agreement”.[...]
It is therefore expected that Hezbollah, a strong and effective ally of Damascus, will modify its deployment plans on the battlefield to mitigate the human losses as long as there is an unclear horizon and that Russian politics in Syria are unclear, say the sources. Six months ago, Damascus and its allies decided to retreat to the main cities and abandon distant and rural areas, difficult to supply logistically and considered less strategic. Today, Hezbollah refuses to engage in all on-going battles when military plans are drawn up but not implemented, even with limited officers. If Russia is willing to hit only ISIS in the East of Syria and refrain from hitting al-Nusra and other jihadists spread in vast area around Aleppo, Hezbollah is not willing to lose more men to keep a status quo. There will be no withdrawal from Syria but redeployment and reduce participation in many forthcoming battles, according to sources on the ground.
A fuzzy future is overwhelming Syria. It seems that the appeasing Russian policy of appeasement with regard to Jahbat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and other jihadists will negatively affect the Syrian army provided that there are no other changes in the Syrian dynamic. The war in Syria is not expected to end soon.

Article original en arabe dans le journal koweïtien al-Raï ici : ▻http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2016/05/10/678502/nr/syria

As Conflicts Flare Up, Leaders Fan Sectarian Flames in Middle East
▻http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/world/middleeast/as-conflicts-flare-up-leaders-fan-sectarian-flames-in-middle-east.html

In an online statement signed by 55 clerics, [Saudi clerics] warned that if the “holy warriors” were defeated in Syria, Sunni nations would also fall “one after the other.”

Madawi al-Rasheed, a visiting professor at the Middle East Center of the London School of Economics, said the strong sectarian tone of the statement represented the sort of pronouncements that have made the region’s hostilities harder and harder to arrest.

“The language of sectarianism involves elimination and purification, and these are very dangerous words to use in any conflict,” Dr. Rasheed said. “It makes it more difficult to see a space for dialogue and political solutions or compromises. Religious conflicts are more difficult to resolve than political ones.”

#sectarisme #délétère #Arabie_Saoudite

Israeli Self-Defense Does Not Permit Killing Civilians - NYTimes.com
▻http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/22/self-defense-or-atrocties-in-gaza/israeli-self-defense-does-not-permit-killing-civilians

#Daniel_Levy apporte d’excellents arguments au débat soulevé par @reka ici : ▻http://seenthis.net/messages/278368

Il me semble même qu’on ne saurait mieux dire,

To be clear, Hamas does carry responsibility for this situation – its targeting of Israeli civilians violates international law. The Hamas charter, its political platform and its military activities all deserve to be condemned. But Israel’s share of the responsibility is far greater. That is a hard conclusion to draw but a necessary one if our understanding of events, our responses and policies are to improve.

There is no military solution but Israel refuses political solutions. Humans do not respond well to humiliation, and will always find ways to resist.

Israeli self-defense does not include the right to (again) kill hundreds of Gazan civilians, to bomb hospitals or even to warn people to evacuate buildings when there is nowhere for them to go. The Israeli government’s attempt to a priori blame Hamas for all losses and thereby absolve itself of responsibility for casualties cannot be accepted.

Take a step back from this latest escalation. Most Gazans are refugees, their roots lie in the war and expulsion of 1948. From 1967 they lived under direct Israeli occupation and under blockade ever since, almost for the past decade.

Israel is not offering Gazans “quiet for quiet.” When Hamas ceases to fire, when it is “quiet,” Israel returns to normality, but Gazans remain cut off from the world, denied the most basic daily freedoms we take for granted.

Step further back to the West Bank, where the Palestinian strategic alternative to Hamas is pursued. The Fatah movement of President Abbas recognizes Israel, pursues peaceful negotiations and security cooperation. That is met with entrenched Israeli control, ever-expanding settlements, and Israeli military incursions into Palestinian cities at will.

So what would you do under such circumstances? Perhaps start by not denying another people’s rights in perpetuity, including the right to self-determination. Reverse the current incentive structure that reciprocates both Fatah demilitarization and Hamas cease-fires with variations on an Israeli brand of deepening occupation.

There is no military solution, but Israel’s government refuses any political solution – neither it nor the governing Likud Party have ever voted to accept a Palestinian state. Hamas’s nonrecognition of Israel is troubling, and so should this be.

Humans do not respond well to humiliation, repression and attempts to deny their most basic dignity. Palestinians are human. Palestinians will find ways to resist — that is human — and sometimes that resistance will be armed. When the Palestinian struggle abandons, rather than uses, international law, as Hamas does, it is right to call that out and to respond proportionately (Israel has gone well beyond proportional), even as channels should be kept open with Hamas.

Of course, Israelis do not respond well to being under fire either, but unlike the Palestinians they have a state, an army, American support and weaponry, and, thankfully, their freedom.

What would you do under such circumstances? Start by treating the Palestinians as humans, as you yourself would wish to be treated.