Saba Saed sur X :
▻https://twitter.com/Sababa_saed/status/1749529175172546633
Hello, this is me. I was speaking on the fact that I can’t vote for someone who is not upholding the values he claimed to have. America has committed too many war crimes and genocides in the name of democracy, and we can’t even uphold it? Shame on us
▻https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1749169229964746752/pu/vid/avc1/1302x720/T_aiMDmaaYKS8Jtu.mp4?tag=12
Thread by Sababa_saed on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1750218606342742088.html?
I do not support orange man, nor will I ever. However we cant just fear monger, and just not do anything to change whats going on because “Trump is worse”. Joe Biden is JUST as harmful as Donald Duck (trump). (2)
Joe Biden weaponizes real issues we struggle with to seem more “progressive” when at the end of the day, what he is holding over our heads is BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS. So lets discuss some facts (3)
Biden caring about reproductive rights, should be because he believes we need to have them, not because it guarantees votes. So seeing the lack of menstrual products, prenatal care, anesthesia, medical care in gaza, should have made him infuriated.(4)
Even for Trump, who wants to ban abortions, Pro-life arguments also makes sense here. Babies in the womb are either dying, or are born to die. The issue in Gaza is simply exposing the hypocrisy within our own governments and candidates.(5)
I am not a single issue voter. Unless you view our democracy not functioning like a democracy as a single issue voter then you do you. FACT IS Biden and Orange man are the same, one is just making you think you’re rights are guaranteed, as we see them get taken away
Also how can we comfortably say Joe Biden is going to protect us, when he doesn’t actually have the morals he claims he will uphold. We can use Gaza as a great example. Which I will be getting into.
As a president, you cannot surpass congress to send more aid. To claim Trump is a fascist, when you are actually running a dictatorship is extremely bold and quite offensive. He’s saying “Americans aren’t smart enough to see my lies because they are so worried about Trump”
So before you get mad at me, and spend your time arguing over what I said. Call your reps and let them know Joe Biden needs to do better. Do not blame me, blame Biden. We are enabling his behavior by blindly supporting him. We need to call him out.
ACCOUNTABILITY is a must, and is a lesson I learned. If we truly believe we are the land of the free, and we hold a democracy, lets test it out. If Biden cares about our democracy, he will do whatever he can to ensure its running. 80% of democrats wants a ceasefire!!
Also as Americans, we need to be also holding ourselves accountable. There are consequences to people’s actions and that includes politicians. We all are sick and tired of this cycle. Biden has been in office for 12 years (counting his VP).
So he is well aware how this functions. Also aware of the constitution and the fact that you cant just bomb places (yemen) without approval of congress.
Also for those saying biden has no control and did all that he can do, lets forget the billions of aid sent. What about all the UN resolutions calling for a ceasefire that the US vetoed. Again, a majority vote in the UN overruled by the US.
What’s democratic about that?
Also why did we decrease public school funding under Biden? We need to wake up and realize that our candidates are viewing this presidency as a business transaction and not as a responsibility to protect this country.
Also, does not it not make you feel gross, that I have to be speaking like this and using American policy to explain to you why a genocide is bad. I have to set my emotions aside and ignore the fact that there is a real threat my entire ethnicity and identity will be wiped away.
Regardless of who wins, its going to be bad. If we continue arguing over who’s the lesser evil, and not try and stop the evil. We are arguing who’s worse, when both of them are the exact same. One is orange, the other is white. Let’s do something about it.
I call on all of you, regardless of your political affiliation. To call on Joe Biden, to do his job and put America’s interest first.
We cannot say “well what can I do if these people are losing their basic human rights, we cant lose our” The person who is responsible for those losing their basic rights, is running this country. How can you trust him to protect yours? You cant pick and choose morality.
Have we gotten so used to our luxuries that we forgot how to fight injustice. I will not be scared to speak up nor will I be shamed into it. For those who disagree with me, I thank you, you give me reason to do more research to prove you wrong, and make my argument stronger.
Genocide is a useful, frightening, and tricky word. Israelis have used it to define 7 October. Many others have described subsequent retaliations as such. Some experts concur, others disagree. It all depends on what one means by genocide.
Thread by PeterHarling
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1738093853289128245.html
And this brings us to the Gaza war. If the goal is to identify intent and reduce risk, the best use of the word isn’t the noun but the adjective: genocidal. That may describe the planned slaughter of whole families, children included, on 7 October, but not only.
For their part, prominent Israeli officials have made a string of genocidal statements: “human animals”, “no civilians”, “no innocents”, “children of darkness”, “wipe them off the surface of the earth”, and so on. The list is rich, consistent, and ever growing.
Although carpet bombing may be understood otherwise, the unnecessary destruction of certain buildings is genocidal: Gaza’s archives, its main library, its universities, its oldest mosque, even its beach resorts. These had social, not military value.
Israeli popular culture is also replete with genocidal themes: dehumanizing references to killing insects, mocking victims including dead babies, “blackface” TikTok contests, or singers and choirs explicitly and repeatedly calling for annihilation.
All this flagging is often ignored by external parties like Western governments or dominant media. It doesn’t fit our counterterrorism narrative. It’s written off as fringe. It’s over the top, but explained away by post 7 October emotions.
If the topic is discussed at all, it is in relation to Palestinian slogans such as “from the river to the sea”, which can mean any number of things, and is also used by Israelis. (This is also true of maps erasing the other, which parties at war use everywhere).
The danger inherent to this reaction is this: Expressing genocidal intent indeed doesn’t mean much... until it blends in large-scale destruction, massive displacement, and elusive prospects of returns, reconstruction, and self-governance.
Regardless of the many other aspects of this war, the day after is one where this question will be posed: Was this a coordinated attempt to destroy Gazan society? Invoking Hamas’ own atrocities and tactics will not make that question go away.
The only good answer starts now, which is why the concept of genocide is in fact so helpful. How this conflict goes down depends on its outcomes. Israel will go after every single person involved on 7 October. The nagging question concerns everyone else.
The prevalent Israeli narrative, today, is that everyone in Gaza was involved, that every form of retribution is legitimate, that total subjugation is the only way to guarantee “never again”. That comes disturbingly close to the notion of genocide.
An expansive musing thread on mask non-use, which I am now calling “mask akinesia”.
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1732897144279818449.html
This is “mask akinesia” - the inability to initiate the activity of having a mask or donning it.
What is the cause of this dangerous condition?
I think the answer is easy. I also think that means we need to come at COVID safety entirely differently.
8/20
Mask akinesia is about being normal. Normal.
Normal is defined as what the herd does. It’s not about what is right or good or safe or natural or just. It’s ONLY about what everybody does.
Masking was never normal, even though everyone did do it for some time.
9/20
Psychologists frame “social conformity” - which comes in a few different flavours - to talk about our tendency to conform with the herd as a way of belonging to it. (Maybe it’s a sociobiological drive?)
Sociologists see “organizational culture” in much the same way.
10/20
The implication here is that going against normal isn’t typically sustainable. Changing what is normal absolutely happens, but over very long time frames.
Drunk driving and smoking were very normal. It took generations to change that.
Thread by HediViterbo on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1729073649251196942.html
Thread by HediViterbo on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1726533644083458309.html
Le vote musulman en France, Q_Critique
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1720451943825342920.html
Vous avez probablement vu passer cette étonnante chronique prônant l’idée que LFI “séduirait par tous les moyens un électorat communautaire” musulman. Sans s’attarder sur la forme, voyons y une occasion revenir sur les pratiques électorales des musulman·es en France🧵
Est-il correct de parler de vote communautaire ou de vote religieux à leur propos ?
En 2017 et 2022, la surmobilisation des citoyen·es musulman·es pour JLM avait été interpétée comme le résultat d’une stratégie clientéliste.
Plus récemment, le positionnement de la FI sur le conflit israélo-palestinien est interprété comme un moyen d’entretenir un lien politique avec les musulman·e·s de France, fondé sur une base considérée par de nombreux observateur·ices·s comme problématique.
En 2022, 69 % des votant·es musulman·es en France ont voté pour JLM au premier tour de la présidentielle (sondage IFOP La Croix). Le candidat de la FI réalisait alors des scores très élevés dans des banlieues populaires où les populations issues de l’immigration sont nombreuses.
Il dépasse ainsi les 60% dans plusieurs villes de Seine-Saint-Denis.
Tout d’abord, rappelons que cette préférence pour la gauche de l’électorat musulman n’est pas un phénomène propre au candidat Mélenchon. Déjà en 2012, au second tour, 93% des musulmans avaient voté F. Hollande (Opinionway).
Vote communautaire, vote religieux, quelles sont les réalités de cette préférence électorale ?
Je reviens sur cette démonstration tentée par Céline Pina sur l’humanité et l’inhumanité. by LehmannDrC on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1720560616941748641.html
Je reviens sur cette démonstration tentée par Céline Pina sur l’humanité et l’inhumanité. "Politologue et journaliste à Causeur", ce pourrait être la fin de la blague, mais on ne va pas s’arrêter là parce que le caractère profondément ignoble de cette diarrhée verbale déguisée en
cours de philosophie humaniste mérite qu’on s’y attarde. En gros, Pina nous explique qu’il y a une différence entre l’enfant qui prend une bombe sur la gueule en "dommage collatéral" et l’enfant qui voit des hommes, face à lui, qui lui veulent du mal, à lui et à sa famille, et
torturent et tuent. Pour Pina, le premier enfant mourra mais, rassurons nous, n’aura pas l’impression qu’en face de lui l’humanité a trahi tout ce qu’il était en droit d’attendre. Dans le second cas, l’enfant part en emportant une image d’inhumanité, d’atrocité et de mépris de ce
qu’il est. Et la conclusion... si on n’explique pas bien "le règne de l’émotion met le signe égal entre toutes les victimes". Il n’y a, évidemment, rien qui va dans ce charabia putride. Mais allons-y pour l’autopsie :
L’enfant de Gaza qui est pulvérisé par une bombe, dans l’"esprit" de Céline Pina, ne voit pas des hommes méchants qui veulent le tuer, ca lui permet de ne pas désespérer de l’humain, de mourir en ayant confiance en la vie, on imagine, parce que bien entendu il a été fauché viteuf
sans se rendre compte de rien : l’instant d’avant il était un enfant, l’instant d’après de la purée, mais ça a été fait avec humanité et coeur par des gens sympa qui n’avaient pas le choix, vraiment, et vont mal dormir la nuit. Ce premier enfant, gazaoui, meurt donc sans avoir
l’impression que l’humanité a trahi ce qu’il était en droit d’attendre.... Ah, ok... Moi j’aurais pensé qu’il était en droit d’attendre une vie. une vie normale. d’avoir un jour dix ans, puis douze. de l’acné. un premier baiser. un diplôme. une passion pour les Pokemon ou Gillian
Anderson. Une vie, quoi. Mais apparemment non. Pour Céline Pina, tu vis à Gaza, t’es en droit d’attendre de finir en purée, c’est dans la logique des choses. Le second enfant, qui meurt dans l’effroi sadique, lui son humanité a été trahie. Et donc là c’est vraiment monstrueux.
( Spoiler : CA L’EST). Mais ce serait céder au règne de l’émotion que de mettre un signe égal entre ces deux vies. entre ces deux morts. entre ces deux crimes..... Bon, on aura compris que Céline Pina fait l’apologie de la mort à distance, et considère qu’une seule de ses deux
morts est inhumaine. L’autre, c’est un peu con quoi, fallait juste pas être au mauvais endroit au mauvais moment, mettez-y un peu du vôtre, les Palestiniens, qui va élever des enfants dans une zone de guerre... Etrangement, je comprends ce que Céline Pina a voulu dire, parce que
quelqu’un d’autre a parlé de l’horreur que représente le fait d’être tué par un humain. L’horreur de savoir qu’on est haï à ce point. Il y a quelques jours, Christine Angot lisait une chronique sur @franceinter , une chronique sur la philosophe Simone Weil. Et parce que cette
@franceinter chronique, pas facile, est importante, je vais la reproduire entièrement ici :
https://pixelfed.zoo-logique.org/storage/m/_v2/493757417233625107/bf4779419-8cf74f/XnELA9qDrnUr/DtAiJU9ApGoW4q5uyCbfBy91iBBrrVh4u1oFViq5.png 
https://pixelfed.zoo-logique.org/storage/m/_v2/493757417233625107/bf4779419-8cf74f/fpCxFXZ0hF0p/GusSmJwv27TRvhcfO860ZcNOXefufxjgSzY3a3RK.png 
https://pixelfed.zoo-logique.org/storage/m/_v2/493757417233625107/bf4779419-8cf74f/g5lKHfG09EbJ/2ahLsQWf99vVBSjOaj6t76Xcc8NsTIxVuxokQGbX.png 
https://pixelfed.zoo-logique.org/storage/m/_v2/493757417233625107/bf4779419-8cf74f/KaAcMj4WWO2I/hQX9EwqMMxCICykwyf3R1zKLaOWT8uEllGipaidn.png
Je reprends : « Qu’est-ce qui m’empêche au juste de crever les yeux à cet homme, si j’en ai la licence et que ça m’amuse ?
Ce qui la retiendrait ( ma main) , c’est de savoir que si quelqu’un lui crevait les yeux, il aurait l’âme déchirée par la pensée qu’on lui fait du mal...
Il y a depuis la petite enfance jusqu’à la tombe, au fond du cœur de tout être humain, quelque chose qui, malgré toute l’expérience des crimes commis, soufferts et observés, s’attend invinciblement à ce qu’on lui fasse du bien et non du mal....
C’est cela avant toute chose qui est sacré en tout être humain."
On dirait que Céline Pina a écouté Christine Angot, ou lu Simone Weil, sans jamais s’être interrogée sur son propre aveuglement. L’enfant gazaoui est tellement pour elle une non-personne qu’elle ne peut une seconde imaginer qu’il sait qu’on lui veut du mal, quand il a vu tomber
des bombes, mourir ses amis, des membres de sa famille, et qu’il attend son tour. Non, dans ce qui sert d’esprit à Céline Pina, l’enfant gazaoui n’a pas l’atroce révélation qu’a eu l’enfant israélien. Il est tué à distance par des gens qui ont un bon rationnel pour ce qu’ils font
et pas d’animosité personnelle, selon elle, juste des gens qui sont légitimés dans ce qu’ils font par des salopards de plateaux. Des salopards de plateaux qui enfoncent bien le clou en expliquant que mettre un signe égal serait céder au règne de l’émotion.
Terry Pratchett écrit : "“Sin, young man, is when you treat people like things. Including yourself. That’s what sin is.” "Le mal, jeune homme, c’est de traiter les êtres comme des choses. Vous inclus. Voilà ce qu’est le mal".
et c’est exactement ce que fait Céline Pina, politologue, journaliste à Causeur, apologue de génocide noyé sous les arguties. Pour elle, l’enfant gazaoui est une chose. Elle ne peut imaginer qu’il meurt terrifié en sachant que des hommes lui veulent du mal. Il faudrait pour ça
qu’elle imagine qu’il ait une âme capable de ressentir la terreur. 
Après un diplôme en sciences politiques et un diplôme d’études approfondies (DEA) d’administration publique à l’Institut d’études politiques de Grenoble, Céline Pina part à Paris faire un diplôme d’études supérieures spécialisées (DESS) de gestion des collectivités locales1.
Après avoir travaillé au sein de diverses collectivités territoriales, soit dans l’administration soit en cabinet — notamment auprès du maire de Pontoise et de celui des Mureaux —, elle est pendant sept ans assistante parlementaire au Sénat, puis à l’Assemblée nationale jusqu’à fin janvier 2016. À la suite de vingt ans de militantisme au sein du Parti socialiste (PS), elle est élue pour la première fois en 2008 adjointe au maire de Jouy-le-Moutier dans le Val-d’Oise et, jusqu’en 2015, conseillère régionale d’Île-de-France2,3. De 2012 à 2017, elle est la suppléante du député Dominique Lefebvre4.
En réaction aux attentats terroristes de novembre 2015 et engagée tout d’abord avec le Printemps républicain, Céline Pina fonde son propre mouvement associatif avec Fatiha Boudjahlat, « Viv(r)e la République », visant à combattre l’islamisme politique et à défendre la laïcité3. En 2016, elle compare le voile islamique à un « brassard nazi »5[source insuffisante].
Elle participe en 2020 à la création de la revue Front populaire, à l’initiative de Michel Onfray, et y publie plusieurs articles6.
En novembre 2021, Céline Pina est poursuivie par Rokhaya Diallo pour « injure publique », pour avoir évoqué dans un article du Figaro en 2018 la non intégration de la militante au Conseil national du numérique, qu’elle jugeait motivée non par le racisme d’État, comme l’avançaient Rokhaya Diallo et The New York Times7, mais en raison de « son propre racisme, de son sexisme et de sa proximité avec la mouvance islamiste »8. Elle est relaxée
« Céline Pina s’inscrit dans la longue lignée des colonialistes, suprémacistes, racistes, plus grands criminels contre l’humanité : le crime du colon édifie la civilisation, celui du colonisé est un signe de sa barbarie nécessaire laquelle justifie la violence coloniale. »
Bénédicte Monville 🌻
Analyse de la (non-) fourniture d’#eau à #Gaza par Israël comparée à la situation en #Cisjordanie
Thread by jan_selby on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1712540135932440742.html
Jan Selby
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15h • 18 tweets • 3 min read Read on Twitter
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One thing I will comment on is this from Israeli Energy Minister Israeli Katz: ’For years we supplied #Gaza with ... water ... instead of saying thank you, they sent 1000s of human animals to slaughter, murder, rape & kidnap babies, women & elderly’ 1/
I won’t comment on the last bit, just on the point about water - as I know something about it ...2/
First, Israel hardly supplies any water to Gaza even in normal times. The big issues as far as water supplies are concerned at the moment are not these supplies from Israel (only 10 mcm annually) but no power supplies, the destruction of Gaza’s power plant, 3/
and the wider destruction of water and wastewater infrastructure. No power is crucial - no power for water delivery or wastewater treatment. No power is much more important than no water - with electricity/fuel Gaza’s can desalinate and get water from wells. Without it not. 4/
The question of why Gaza gets so little water from Israel is also worth commenting on, as it perfectly illustrate much about Israel-Gaza-West Bank dynamics. It’s not because it doesn’t need it. It obviously does - it doesn’t rain that much in Gaza, 5/
and there’s no way it should be self-sufficient in water. The reason it doesn’t receive much water from Israel is that Israel’s water networks bypass it, going round it to supply Israeli communities to the east and south. Just as in relation to ’security’, so also water: ...6/
longstanding Israeli policy has been to cut Gaza off and hope that it sinks into the sea. 7/
In case you are wondering why Israel should even supply Gaza with water, then also consider this: thr situation on the West Bank is the exact reverse! 8/
It rains plenty in most of the West Bank, and as s result the West bank has plentiful groundwater resources. But there, Palestinians are forced to import water from Israel! The city of Ramallah now gets all of its water supplied by pipe from Israel. Annaul rainfall in Ramallah 9/
is higher than London’s! But Israeli restrictions on Palestinian well drilling in the West Bank have meant that Palestinians have turned to Israel for piped supplies. And in this case, Israel has been happy to oblige. 10/
There thus exists a crazy situation (even before recent events) where Gaza, which has meagre water resources and cannot be self-sufficient, hardly receives any water from Israel, whereas the West Bank, with its heavy rains, is compelled to import it - and uphill! 11/
As final points, it’s also worth noting that this water isn’t just ’given’ by Israel, in two regards. First, it is paid for. The water received by the West Bank and Gaza alike is paid for by the Palestinian Authority. And second, ...12/
much of this is water which, first in 1948-9 and then 1967 and by Israeli settlers, has been taken by force. Water is the conflict in microcosm. 13/
This and related stuff is discussed in my book published last year. I don’t want to use this to self-publicise. But here it is anyway. With Gaza’s power plant on the cover, it seems appropriate to share right now. end 14/
Divided Environments
Cambridge Core - International Relations and International Organisations - Divided Environments
▻https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/divided-environments/0621F20A4464C4E05BF76980BBF25D3F
One last thing, as I should have been clear on why Israel is happy to supply water to the West Bank. 3 reasons: first, because Israel has got plenty of water and is happy to find markets for it; 15/
Second because the water is supplied to West Bank Palestinian communities through water networks constructed for Israeli settlements; West Bank settlements and Palestinian towns and villages there have both been integrated into Israel’s national water supply network, ... 16/
as part of its policy of de facto annexation. And third, because Israeli policy has been to try to keep the PA and Palestinian elites in the West Bank happy, to co-opt them, e.g. by providing a basic amount of water. The 2nd and 3rd factors do not apply in the case of Gaza. 17/
As with water, so with the conflict’s overall political geography: Israeli policy to the West Bank has been to colonise and co-opt; whereas to Gaza it has been to isolate, imprison. And as a footnote: Whatever happens next, it’s hard to imagine this continuing. End 18/
Une illustration de Visualizing Palestine sur le sujet :
▻https://twitter.com/ryepastrami/status/1391937181908938759
Quelques éléments sur le secteur de l’électricité à Gaza et les conséquences du blocus électrique
par Elai Rettig, Assistant Professor
@BIUPolitics (Bar-Ilan University) | Head of Energy Division @BESA_Center
| Post-Doc @wustl | Former lecturer @Rice_Biz | Former fellow @INSSisrael + @HMSstrategy
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1712399625380905089.html
Elai Rettig
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Following #Israel ’s decision to cut the #electricity supply to #Gaza, I’m sharing a short informational thread with background on Gaza’s electricity sector and the consequences of the supply cut: In times of peace, 50% of the electricity in Gaza is provided by Israel for free ->
–> Gaza also has an independent diesel-fueled power plant that generates 25% of its needs, and the rest is generated through a vast deployment of private diesel generators, and one of the largest share of rooftop solar PV panels in the world. ->
Gaza residents are used to outages and have an average of 4 hours of electricity per day. Hamas has not bothered to restore the electrical infrastructure in Gaza since it was damaged in Operation Protective Edge in 2014, despite the many foreign aid funds that were provided ->
–> Residents of Gaza who can afford it have already found independent solutions (diesel generators and solar panels). In a tactical sense, the underground Hamas bunkers and HQ will likely still have electricity because they would have stockpiled diesel fuel for months ahead ->
–> The broader impact of the power outage will be mainly on the water supply, water desalination, and sewage treatment in Gaza, which needs an electricity supply to operate and can create a crisis if not eventually addressed. /end
Since I can’t share long videos on this platform, for a more detailed 3-minute video I made on the issue, you can visit my LinkedIn page:
Or Facebook page: linkedin.com/posts/elai-ret…
Elai Rettig on LinkedIn: Following Israel’s decision to cut the electricity supply to Gaza, I’m…
Following Israel’s decision to cut the electricity supply to Gaza, I’m sharing a short informational briefing I gave with background on Gaza’s electricity…
▻https://www.linkedin.com/posts/elai-rettig-80642339_following-israels-decision-to-cut-the-electricity-act
Regarding free Israeli electricity to Gaza. Technically the Palestinian Authority is billed for it, but that’s just a workaround to satisfy domestic Israeli politics. The PA doesn’t pay the bill, it accumulates the debt for Gaza and every few years the debt is forgiven/erased.
[...]
Here’s a recent report about an attempt by the Israeli government to collect some of the debt from the PA for years of unpaid electricity supply to Gaza. Every few years Israel claims it will demand payment, and each time the debt is eventually forgiven: ▻https://timesofisrael.com/smotrich-says-israel-to-withhold-millions-from-pa-to-repay-electricity-debt/amp
[...]
Johnny 🤖
@bosco_irl
·
12h
Hamas actually damaged the power lines to Gaza which Israel must repair now.
Elai Rettig
@ElaiRettig
·
12h
Yes, Hamas rocket attacks on Saturday damaged several of the electricity links leading into Gaza. This time Israel refused to repair the links, unlike with previous rocket attacks. Hamas essentially damaged its own electricity supply.
[...]
Elai Rettig
@ElaiRettig
·
9h
Hamas indeed reported that the power station has already ran out of fuel, but the plant’s diesel storage capacity is designed to last for at least two weeks. This means that Hamas emptied the storage itself. Most likely to power its own generators in the bunkers to last longer.
Thread by BtSIsrael on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1710962102679019901.html
Hamas’s attack and the events unfolding since yesterday are unspeakable. We could talk about their cruel and criminal actions, or focus on how our Jewish-supremacist govt brought us to this point. But as former Israeli soldiers, our job is to talk about what we were sent to do
🧵
Israel’s security policy, for decades now, has been to “manage the conflict”.
Successive Israeli governments insist on round after round of violence as if any of it will make a difference. They talk about “security”, “deterrence”, “changing the equation”.
All of these are code words for bombing the Gaza Strip to a pulp, always justified as targeting terrorists, yet always with heavy civilian casualties.
In between these rounds of violence we make life impossible for Gazans, and then act surprised when it all boils over.
We talk about “normalization” with the UAE and now Saudi Arabia, while hoping the world will turn a blind eye to the open-air prison we built in our backyard. Apart from the unfathomable violation of human rights, we’ve created a massive security liability for our own citizens.
The question Israelis are all asking is - where were the soldiers yesterday? Why was the IDF seemingly absent while hundreds of Israelis were slaughtered in their homes and on the streets? The unfortunate truth is that they were “preoccupied”. In the West Bank.
We send soldiers to secure settler incursions into the Palestinian city of Nablus, to chase Palestinian children in Hebron, to protect settlers as they carry out pogroms.
Settlers demand that Palestinian flags are removed from the streets of Huwara; soldiers are sent to do it.
Our country decided - decades ago - that it’s willing to forfeit the security of its citizens in our towns and cities, in favor of maintaining control over an occupied civilian population of millions, all for the sake of a settler-messianic agenda.
The idea that we can “manage the conflict” without ever having to solve it is once again collapsing before our eyes. It held up until now because only few dared to challenge it.
These heartbreaking events could change that. They must.
For all of us between the river and the sea.
Parfois les réponses arrivent d’où on ne les attend pas !
On va parler de « dette immunitaire », et d’une interview mémorable parue hier dans « Pourquoi Docteur »...
Qu’on pourra rebaptiser pour l’occasion : « Docteur, raconte nous une histoire »... 😅/1704988742841188598 ?refresh=1695366322
Parfois les réponses arrivent d’où on ne les attend pas !
On va parler de #dette_immunitaire", et d’une interview mémorable parue hier dans « Pourquoi Docteur »...
Qu’on pourra rebaptiser pour l’occasion : « Docteur, raconte nous une histoire »... 😅
« Parfois les réponses arrivent d’où on ne les attend pas ! »
▻https://twitter.com/C_A_Gustave/status/1704988742841188598
►https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1704988742841188598.html
A aucun moment, il ne vient à l’idée de Robert Cohen que ces soit disant bronchiolites sont les conséquences d’une infection par SARS-CoV2. Ce concept de dette immunitaire ne marche pas avec ce virus (ni avec celui de la grippe) parce qu’il n’y aura jamais d’immunité pérenne contre ces deux agents vu qu’à chaque mutation, il faut rebattre les cartes vaccinales. On vit vraiment un cauchemar sanitaire.
La conférence de presse de notre membre @AriaLavrilleux va commencer dans 10 minutes au siège de @RSF_inter à Paris
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1704843339256791377.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/images/screenshots/thread/1704843339256791377.jpg 
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F6jUKGvXEAA0W6y.jpg 
Ça démarre avec une première prise de parole de @RSF_inter qui se dit « soulagé de la libération d’@AriaLavrilleux »
@RSF_inter @AriaLavrilleux @MathiasDestal, confondateur de @Disclose_ngo, prend la parole. Il rappelle les 40 heures de procédure. Et évoque « une procédure d’exception qui a fait passer Ariane pour une délinquante aux yeux de la loi ».
Il évoque une « procédure qui porte gravement atteinte à la liberté de la presse, au secret des sources » et le « franchissement d’un cap inquiétant »
@AriaLavrilleux prend la parole. Elle remercie ses soutiens et tout particulièrement les « soutiens égyptiens »
Elle a aussi un mot pour @Prenonsla1.
« À 6h20 du matin, des magistrats 9 agents et des magistrats chargés de la lutte antiterroriste sont venus avec des valises, et des logiciels pour aspirer les données de mes outils de travail »
"J’ai appris pendant cette perquisition que j’étais placée sous surveillance depuis un moment."
« Quand je suis arrivée j’étais malade. J’étais assez déshydratée » je vous dis ça pour le contexte, parce qu’après ça s’est pas très bien passée."
« En cellule les policiers ont refusé de me donner accès aux médicaments contre la diarrhée. Il a fallu attendre l’arrivée d’un médecin à 3 heures du matin. »
"Le lendemain j’ai été interrogée à plusieurs reprises. À chaque fois j’ai évoqué mon droit à garder le silence.",
"Les agents de la DGSI ont essayé de créer un climat de confiance, pour essayer ensuite de me faire passer à table ’
« Je suis sortie le lendemain à 21 heures, par l’arrière du commissariat »
"J’ai été une témoin privilégiée du détournement de la lutte antiterroriste en France"
« Des agents qui sont là pour traquer des terroristes ont été mobilisés pendant des jours, peut-être des mois pour traquer une journaliste »
"Je me demande, comment on en est arrivé là ? C’est une question pour les états généraux de l’information"
« J’en appelle à vous journalistes. Par votre mobilisation vous avez montrer notre force. Pour la suite je vous appelle à tous les niveaux pour questionner les parlementaires, les politiques. Parce que précisément on n’est pas en Egypte, on n’est pas dans une dictature »
Début des questions des journalistes à @AriaLavrilleux après une prise de parole de @RSF_inter sur les mesures à mettre en place pour améliorer le secret des sources
@MathiasDestal parle « d’une violation du droit de la presse d’aller cibler @AriaLavrilleux plutôt que le directeur de publication de @Disclose_ngo »
@AriaLavrilleux « Je précise que je suis journaliste indépendante. Il y a potentiellement une volonté de taper sur la journaliste la plus faible. Qui est seule, à Marseille. Loin de Paris er des grands médias. Et ben c’est raté ! »
@AriaLavrilleux « Il y avait au moins trois informaticiens spécialisés de la DGSI. Une multitude de clés usb, de logiciels. Certains logiciels servaient à analyser les donnes. D’autres à les copier. Ils m’ont assurer qu’ils ne gardaient rien. Mais je n’ai que leur parole. »
"J’ai demandé un engagement écrit comme quoi les données sont bien supprimées. La juge d’instruction a répondu, « ma présence seule suffit ».
@AriaLavrilleux « Il y a eu une petite mobilisation des politiques mais c’est très insuffisant. Ce qui m’est arrivé peut arriver à nous tous. La fin de la protection des sources c’est la fin du journalisme. »
@AriaLavrilleux termine en appelant les politiques à prendre leur responsabilité pour « éviter que la démocratie ne meurt dans la pénombre ».
Fin de la conférence de presse. Merci de nous avoir suivi !
Thread by jburnmurdoch on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1641799627128143873.html
Mars 2023
I’m not sure people fully appreciate how dire the US life expectancy / mortality situation has got.
Here’s another way of showing the same thing:
Beyond age 70, US mortality/survival rates are very similar to other rich countries. But between teenage years and early middle age there is a vast gulf.
John Burn-Murdoch sur Twitter :
The result is that the US is the only developed country where even if you strip out all Covid deaths, life expectancy still dropped by a year since 2019
▻https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1641799804727574529
as usual, les graphiques du FT sont absolument remarquables !
évolution de l’espérance de vie à la naissance
4% des États-Uniens de 5 ans n’atteindront pas 40 ans
1% dans les pays similaires
même constat sur la surmortalité des jeunes adultes présenté à l’aide de la courbe de mortalité par âge
l’espérance de vie d’un États-Unien est équivalente à celle d’un Britannique deux fois (au moins) moins riche (à parité de pouvoir d’achat)
vu sur l’autre axe, à revenu égal, 5 ans d’écart en espérance de vie
Thread by AfricanArchives on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1682412703770345474.html
The Battle of Bamber Bridge, 1943.
Racist US military police attacked black US troops on British soil.
US military authorities demanded the town’s pubs impose a colour bar, the local landlords responded with signs that read “Black Troops Only” which pissed them off.
A THREAD
Thread by CedricStolz on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1679157348194033667.html
Thread : comment j’ai passé 5 jours avec un meurtrier en cavale (j’arrive toujours pas à y croire)
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1673611839244992513.html
Ça fait quelques temps que je suis en vacances en Espagne avec un ami, petit road trip bien sympa : on commence par Barcelone on rencontre des brésiliens trop cool, tout se passe bien, on est dans un bon mood rien à signaler
Après quelques temps dans les grandes villes, on se dit qu’on va se reposer à Montblanc, un petit village d’Espagne, ambiance médiévale mais à l’arrivée déjà on avait un feeling un peu bizarre
Time-series forecasting is becoming a lost art.
Mark Tenenholtz @marktenenholtz – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1668245348433948673.html
▻https://twitter.com/marktenenholtz/status/1668245348433948673
#Time-series #forecasting is becoming a lost art.
It’s the engine behind the $5,000,000,000,000 retail industry in the US.
And yet, research progress is slow and the best tricks are locked away.
But why is it particularly tough even in the current AI breakthrough?
Here’s why 🧵
Forecasting is a seemingly straightforward task.
In fact, given all the success we’ve had with LLMs, it’s weird that we can’t use the exact same tricks with time-series data.
So why don’t 175B parameter models work, and why can’t we do the classic LM + transfer learning recipe?
Well, for starters, we kinda do the same thing.
Given a sequence of historical data points, we train the model to predict the next one (or maybe the next 10, or maybe the single value 7 observations from now).
So is it a data problem?
Well, probably not from a dataset size perspective.
While there’s no equivalent of “the entire internet’s worth of text” for time-series data, there are still enormous datasets.
Any large retailer will have datasets with potentially hundreds of billions of data points.
Despite that, there haven’t been any convincing papers on transfer learning.
It certainly could be that not enough of these datasets are publicly available.
But, from my experience, even the largest datasets don’t necessitate anything beyond a pretty shallow transformer.
On top of that, XGBoost is crazy effective in a way that it just isn’t for NLP problems.
(I have some great material on this. Link at the end.)
My best guess is that it has to do with the complexity of the underlying representation.
In simple english:
Words really difficult to represent.
Depending on the context, they can mean entirely different things. Wouldn’t it be nice if you really could represent things in a static way like in this image?
You just can’t. But, in time-series problems, you kinda can.
In fact, methods like STUMPY exist for this.
Unlike the deep, 768/1536-dimensional embedding representations you need in NLP, “matrix profile” methods like STUMPY are pretty low-dimensional.
In other words: simpler models for simpler representations.
Now, the practicalities:
XGBoost is amazing for this because it’s much more capable of learning these types of representations.
99% of the feature engineering you do in NLP nowadays is just tokenization.
In contrast, time-series models benefit a lot from feature engineering.
Here’s how:
Time series data has a couple types of patterns. I usually think of them in 3 buckets:
1. Seasonality
These are short-term, repeating patterns. Think of this like day of week effects, month of the year effects, etc.
2. Trends (cont)
Your data is either “trending” up, down, or not at all. Simple as that.
The below image is a commonly-used toy dataset of airline passengers over the years, and it exhibits both seasonality and an upward trend.
If you’ll notice, the peaks are consistently ~6 months apart.
And finally,
3. Cycles
Cycles are longer range seasons, e.g. years long.
Technically, you could lump cycles in with seasonality. But, IMO, it’s helpful to separate them.
My rule of thumb is that 2 year or greater length is a cycle.
So, how do we build models for this?
The short answer is, a lot of features. Most of these features will end up being “autoregressive” features, i.e. features based on the previous values in the time-series.
Then, you combine those features with external variables to your problem, like price.
If you’re curious what features end up looking like, I tweeted a bunch the other day.
These features are hard to implement w/o bugs, and it takes a lot of practice to figure out when to them.
Now, to takeaways:
Time-series feature engineering for XGBoost, 101:
• Lag features
• Rolling aggregations (usually std, var)
• Differences between lags/rolling features
• Group-level aggregations
• Rolling group-level aggregations
• Calendar features (dayofweek, month, etc)
• Rolling features by dayofweek, month, etc.
• Rolling features by group and calendar
• Expanding window features
• Expanding window by group and calendar
• Normalized features (i.e. % of greatest observed value)
• Predictions from stats models, like ETS
• Any external variables, like price
And many, many more (depending on your data)
There’s so much more to it. In addition to the above, mastery takes:
• Clever feature engineering
• Great EDA (e.g. Pandas) skills
• Great model evaluation skills, specific to time-series
Here’s a great resource I put together to learn it all:
CoRise - Forecasting with Machine Learning
Time-series forecasting is one of the longest-standing applications of machine learning, and is one of the most prevalent techniques used across all of industry (if not the most prevalent). And yet, d…
▻https://corise.com/go/forcasting-with-machine-learning-EBFH4
(pour mémoire)
Thread by healthyheating on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1666188645227954176.html
1/n Because public health is so incompetent here are my thoughts if you’re at home surrounded by wildfire smoke.
A. If you have the wherewithal - prepare your home for vacation & leave until its safe to come back. Arrange to meet your home owners insurance requirements.
B. If you can’t leave, prevent outdoor air from entering your home; close windows, doors, and shut down any mechanical systems connected to the outdoors.
C. If there is an outdoor air duct connected to your air systems (furnace, a/c, HRV/ERV, central vac etc) block them...take pictures to remind yourself what you have done...so you can undo when its safe.
D. Avoid sustained use of exhaust fans including kitchen, baths, dryers and central vac.
E. Avoid all heat generation...cooking, cleaning, laundry plus computers, TV’s etc...until its safe to open windows and operate a/c and exhaust fans.
F. In space filtration such as #corsirosenthalbox are your friend...use them.
G. Relocate to a basement.
H. Wear N95 respirators for added protection.
I. In a worsening situation isolate to a smaller room in the basement if possible... bring your in-space filtration & masks.
J. Stay hydrated!
K. If you have CO2 monitors - keep an eye on them...don’t panic if they run high <3500 ppm...use lulls in smoke to ventilate your rooms.
L. If you’re high risk let neighbors, family and friends know and call your family physician and let them know...
M. If you know someone who is high risk do the right thing and help them out...
N. If there is a corresponding heat wave get below grade on the north side of the building and elevate the air speed with your air filters...remain calm wear light clothes and stay hydrated...follow guidelines for high risk individuals.
O. 98% of the fatalities in #BC's recent heatwave died indoors...when emergency response was overwhelmed due to the number of calls...many could have survived had they followed the above including taking cool baths or wearing saturated wet towels in elevated air speeds.
Feel free to add to this list...
Alors ? Le COVID c’est fini ? L’OMS a levé l’alerte maximale, mais qu’en dit le virus lui-même ? Et qu’en est-il dans les pays voisins qui n’ont pas achevé d’invisibiliser la pandémie ?
Un thread qui vous fait voyager dans les égouts des pays frontaliers (miam
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1656362032780771328.html
Mais au contraire de France 🏅 tous les pays frontaliers ont maintenu une surveillance du Sars-Cov-2 dans les eaux usées. Allons faire un petit tour des villes frontalières et en profiter pour apprendre à dire « eaux usées » dans différentes langues.
Pas de test, pas de virus ?
Thread by michaelxpettis on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App
▻https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1653631176706519040.html
#USD
